Tag: US higher education

US Rebound, Pathway Woes and A World of Opportunity

Watching the gyrations of international recruitment as the pandemic, global tensions and the rise of online opportunities work their way through the sector is enough to make anyone slightly queasy.  There is still plenty to play for and with Australia looking ready to re-enter the fray in 2022 it is going to be a fascinating ride.  But for now it’s time to digest the latest Open Doors figures and have a small look under the hood to see what might be happening in the pathway sector.

The Open Doors press release trumpeted 914,095 international students for the 2020/21 academic year which was a 15% decline year on year.  But the inclusion of OPT (203,885) and non-degree students (21,151) doesn’t make a reasonable comparison with some other countries and when you strip them out the UG and Graduate student number is 689,069 – a 13% decline on the previous year.  The 45.6% year on year decline in new student enrollment becomes a slightly more palatable 39.9% with the removal of non-degree students.

But the real excitement was around the bounceback in the 860 university snapshot survey conducted by the Institute of International Education (IIE).  This suggested that new international students enrollments grew by 68% year on year to Fall 2021.  The obvious point to make is that if 2020/21 international student enrollment (including non-degree) was 145,528 then a 68% increase would take it to 244,487 which is still a lower new student intake than any year since 2011.

It’s good news that several US universities provide open and near contemporaneous access to detailed levels of information on international student recruitment which allows us to look under the hood and down to the pathway level.  It’s a state of affairs that Canada, the UK and Australia (which goes some of the way) should think of emulating.  Meanwhile, Fall 2021 updates from INTO University Partnerships (IUP) partners Oregon State University and George Mason University show how tough some are still finding things at direct and pathway levels.

Oregon State University (OSU)

IUP’s corporate website has an encouraging graph which shows the OSU international student growth story all the way up to 2019/20 so a visual moving the picture forward to Fall 2021 seems a helpful contribution.  The deterioration in undergraduate numbers is particularly evident as the university’s total enrollment falls to near 2012 levels and 2021 shows a further decline of 10% from 2020.  A wider consideration going forward may be that if there is a shift in major source countries the balance of UG to graduate enrollments may change for all universities with significant consequences for year on year stability.

Source: Oregon State University Institutional Research Office  

The situation for the INTO pathway operation at OSU is even more stark.  From a high point in 2014 the trend has been almost wholly downwards with a 78.7% decline in enrollments to 319 in 2021.  While the early stages of decline were in Academic English the most recent shrinkage has been in the core undergraduate and postgraduate intakes.

Source: Oregon State University Institutional Research Office  

INTO George Mason University (INTO GMU)

INTO GMU saw reasonable growth in its first two years and peaked at an enrollment of 387 in 2016.  Five years of decline has seen the 2021 intake down to 96 – a 75.2% fall from the peak with graduate and undergraduate numbers following similar paths.  INTO University Partnerships (IUP) July 2020 accounts show that INTO GMU’s level of debt to IUP had grown from £566k to £1.896m so it will be interesting to see how the 2021 annual report looks.

Source: GMU Office of Institutional Research and Reporting

To be fair and reasonable the announcement of the deal between IUP and GMU anticipated that the venture would add 1,000 international students to the university over five years.  In Fall 2014 the university’s census recorded a headcount of 2,136 non-resident aliens on GMU’s US campuses and by Fall 2019 that had risen to 3,247 so the original mission was accomplished.  The numbers for the pathway suggest that direct recruitment will have helped that along and tracking what happens next will be fascinating.

It’s difficult not to note that IUP, the pioneer of joint venture pathways, has had a bumpy few years with partnerships in the UK and US falling by the wayside.  Executive chairman, John Latham left the business on 31 October after being at IUP since April 2016 and just a few months after new Chief Executive, Olivia Streatfeild, was appointed around June this year.  INTO the Great Wide Open suggested some of the strategic issues the business faces with the suggestion that it “needs to establish some renewed momentum if it is to fulfil the promise of its early days of innovation, creativity and energy.”

Outside, the CEO and Chief Recruitment Officer, the IUP leadership team has been in place for five years or longer.  It’s a period that has seen six joint ventures close, three in the US and three in the UK, with little to match the growth of Shorelight in the US, no new UK partners and the recent addition of University of Western Australia in beleaguered Australia.  There are plenty of adjustments in the financial reporting but one measure of performance might be Total Comprehensive Income at Group level which looks to have moved from £8m to £12m over the period.

With the US and UK governments setting out to support ambitious growth targets and a reawakening of student mobility there should be good opportunities for nimble operations with a good foothold in key markets to move forward.  New operators and established companies, particularly in the UK, are showing that universities are still looking for support and Shorelight’s recent announcement of partnership with Austin College suggests there are opportunities in the US.  To borrow from Sherlock Holmes “the game’s afoot” but whether the answer is “elementary” remains to be seen.

Note: The data is gathered from public sources and referenced as necessary. In the event that there is a misinterpretation or error I am always happy to make amendments if approached with appropriate, verifiable information from an authoritative source.

It’s Only Just Out of Reach*

It’s always fun to write something that challenges current orthodoxy.  It is not about being right all the time but stimulating debate brings the potential for creative solutions and better solutions for students and society.  There is also the interesting spectacle of people defending the status quo and thinking nothing can or will ever change.

Recently, Louise Nicol and I co-authored a piece for University World News which exhorted the UK to ‘make hay’ while the sun of a benevolent international student environment shone down.  In the face of a beleaguered Australia, an overwhelmed Canada and a United States where every month brings a new twist or turn, it’s time to seize the day.  Or, as the UK Prime Minister could possibly say the UK needs to prenez le grip et donne nous the students.

The suggestion in the article was that the UK should not be thinking about being second in the world for international student recruitment but, specifically, “how and where can we be first?”.   Illustrating the potential was the Education International Cooperation Education Group survey which found, for the third consecutive year, that the UK achieved favoured status – something previously held by the United States.   It also noted that this year UG applications from India were up 30%, with the growth firming up as later data showing placed applicants up by the same percentage.

This led the authors to suggest that the UK Government target of 600,000 international students by 2030 should be revised to 750,000.   It’s a big number but UCL added over 7,000 international students in the four years to 2019/20 and there are more than 150 degree awarding institutions in the UK. A further 240 colleges in the UK provide complete courses leading to recognized UK degrees so the additional students could be spread even further.

Around the Corner

Even if it sounds a stretch target there are a range of data points to suggest what might be possible if there was the will.  If the proportion of international students studying for degrees in the UK was 33% of the total enrolled (UCL is at 53%) there would have been 844,000 of them in 2019/20.  A 44% increase on the 556,625 international students in UK universities in 2019/20 (including EU students), growth which Australia managed between 2016 and 2019, would take the number to 802,540.  All of this is without counting the 432,000 students doing UK degrees outside the country which means that nearly 1 million students around the globe are already studying for awards from UK institutions. 

It was, however, suggested by one respondent that “…the reality is the UK can never be #1. One of many reasons – institutional capacity”.  Fans of Maradona, Berra and Smith might agree more with Yoda’s wisdom that “size matters not” and I wondered what it would really take for the UK to overhaul the US as the leading international student recruiter.  There are several ways of measuring it but it’s surprising how close a race it could be.

First thing to say is that the Open Doors press release and headline figures for US international student enrollment embellishes the actuality.  You can remove 223,539 Optional Practical Training (OPT) that are included (because study is generally prohibited or incidental) and 58,201 non-degree entries from the 2019/20 total of 1,075,496.  That leaves 793,756 UG and Graduate students which is below the numbers noted in the ambitious growth UK scenario noted above.

Next point is that the US has been in a period of decline and Open Doors gives a number of 225,239 new UG and Graduate enrollments in 2019/20.  HESA indicates that the UK enrolled 319,825 first year non-UK students that year, with 255,710 being non-EU so it was ahead on new degree entry international students.  Continuing to close the gap at the rate of 30,000 a year would see the UK ahead of the US within eight years.

It seems reasonable to suggest that the engine of US growth for the past ten years has been Chinese students but that the coming ten years will bring different motivations and constraints.  A four-year undergraduate and two-year postgraduate system may be less attractive for international students who are anxious to get their degree and move on to work in the country of study.  In this respect the UK length of degree study has an advantage and its recently activated right to two years post study work is more accessible than the US options.    

India is likely to become the most important indicator as China’s demographics and attitudes change.  It’s early days but in the year to the end of June 2021 the UK issued 62,500 student visas for India – a rise of around 30 per cent on the previous year while a comparative figure for the US seems to be about 55,000.  These numbers suggest that the UK was ahead by 12.8% – a winning margin that would increase the world long jump to over 10 meters from its current standard of under 9 meters.

Maybe Just by Holding Still

It is true that the US has over 4,000 degree granting institutions so its capacity is extensive.  But it is more expensive; studying often takes longer; post study work is complex; there is a reputation in recent years for being less than welcoming and the lingering uncertainty of a different political viewpoint dominating in a few years.  The recent climate and the prospects were considered so poor that at least 18 US pathway operations closed in the past three years despite being operated by experienced companies that recruit over 15,000 international students a year in the UK. 

The scale of the decline in the US pathway operations has been brutal and is no better illustrated than INTO’s troubles at Oregon State University where an enrollment of 1,496 in Fall 2014 fell to 809 in 2019/20.  The US universities that have made significant progress in international recruitment and maintained momentum during the difficult recent years have invested over the long term to build infrastructure and expertise.  But, there seems no real evidence of a widespread, concerted attempt by the majority of US universities to do what is necessary to materially increase the number of international students they attract.

Meanwhile, the UK is rubbing its hands with glee at the recent news that the THRIVE Act could dissuade colleges from using international agents.  The Center for China and Globalization (CCG) has noted worsening China/USA relations impacting student choices and there seems little reason for agents, already under pressure from the rise of aggregators, to give preference to a country that has always been lukewarm to their role in student recruitment. The M Square Media (MSM) agent survey published in early 2021 showed the depth of the problem that has to be overcome. 

None of this is to say that the US, with its breadth and depth of quality institutions, cannot find its way back towards a position of substantial growth in the international student arena and remain number one for total volume.  But having capacity and wanting the cash from tuition fees is unlikely to be enough to compete effectively against countries that are hungry for success, offer easy routes to post-study work, make citizenship a realistic goal, and which are not likely to fundamentally alter the rules of the game with every change of Government.  Neither does it mean that the UK can’t aspire to dominate markets where its quality, variety, value, visa policies and record of engagement with local agents, schools and universities makes it a safer bet. 

NOTES

* All headings and sub-headings are derived from the song “Something’s Coming” from the irresistible West Side Story which celebrates the 60th anniversary of its release on film this year.  For my money Leonard Bernstein and Stephen Sondheim created the finest musical ever committed to film.  (Music by Leonard Bernstein, lyrics by Stephen Sondheim. © 1956, 1957 Amberson Holdings LLC and Stephen Sondheim. Copyright renewed.  Leonard Bernstein Music Publishing Company LLC, Publisher.)  

Image by Peggy und Marco Lachmann-Anke from Pixabay 

Is a new Dark Age beckoning for higher education take up?

Louise Nicol and Alan Preece  First published in University World News, 29 September 2021

Many believe that going to university is a rite of passage and that young people and their parents will always make sacrifices for it.

For years the Grand Tour of Europe was similarly considered an educational and social milestone for young, privileged men to complete their education, but its attraction waned.

When technology made rail and sea travel accessible, Thomas Cook aggregated tourists on package holidays and rich young men lost their interest in neo-classical culture: the Grand Tour gave way to the “Cook’s Tour”.

Enabling technology, applicant aggregation and a growing dissatisfaction with educational outcomes are with us today. There is no reason that one generation’s rite of passage won’t become another’s dead-end junction and some warning signs are already showing.

It is possible to speculate on how the educational enlightenment of the past 70 years could mark the beginnings of a new dark age.

It’s just not worth it

A February 2021 House of Commons Briefing in the UK showed part-time entrants to university had collapsed from 470,000 in 2009/10 to 235,000 in 2019/20. The number of “white working-class boys” going to university continued to fall in 2021, with acceptances down 9.9% since 2014.

Across the Atlantic in the United States, higher education enrolment has fallen by an average of 1.67% per year since 2010.

Rumblings of discontent have been tracked in the US, with the Pew Research Center and Gallup finding declining confidence in higher education since 2015.

Some parts of the political spectrum are markedly more sceptical than others, but even where there is support, it has fallen in recent years.

A survey by the Bipartisan Policy Center and Association of American Colleges and Universities found that 29% of US adults did not think a college degree was “worth it”.

A OnePoll survey of UK postgraduates in 2021 found 46% did not think their university education was worth the money and over 30% did not need a degree to do their current job.

The Harris Poll in 2020 found 60% of student loan debtors in the US said their degree was not worth the student loan debt they had taken on. Whether it is the general public or the graduating class – scepticism is evident and increasing.

Government views are also shifting with the UK removing the long term ambition of 50% of young people participating in higher education and calling it an “absurd mantra”.

When an education minister says that university education is not what the individual or country needs, is “low value” and carries an “inbuilt snobbishness” it is difficult to see why the public should keep the faith.

All at a time when young people are graduating into a post-pandemic world which has brought new uncertainty to their first steps on the career ladder.

Zombie Gen Z to the Alpha Dawn

Generational shifts take time and if the average age of a new parent is around 28, we are seeing the last of Generation X’s (1965 to 1980) children going to higher education.

Those parents, along with the media and successive governments, told Gen Z (1997 to 2012) that a degree was the route to a career and a better life. Maybe that is why Gen Z didn’t question the aspirational mindset society encouraged when university was effectively free in the UK and you could even get a grant to cover living costs.

But the last of the Millennials, Gen Y (1981 to 1996), are finding out that traditional graduate industries are embracing the digital revolution and squeezing out many of the first steps on the career ladder. Economic indicators point to young people today being worse off than their parents, unable to get into the housing market and reliant on the bank of mum and dad until well into their twenties. There is no reason to believe that the situation is going to improve any time soon.

Gen A (born from 2012), the children of Millennials, will be at undergraduate entry age around 2030, just as the demographic boom of the 2020s starts to go against UK universities.

A disenchanted Gen Y might be regretting the return on their own education investment and could advise Gen A to consider one of the many different paths available to them.

The bank of grandad and grandma (Gen X) will not stretch far enough to have much influence as health costs rise, life expectancy increases and the Asian century shifts the world’s economic centre of gravity.

Government is unlikely to help, as unpaid student debt in the UK is already £160 billion and forecast to grow to £560bn by 2050.

The Higher Education Policy Institute or HEPI has already suggested that students should start paying back their loans at a lower income threshold, which looks like both a cost saving to Government and an acceptance that graduate earnings are going nowhere fast.

Alternatively, the Augar recommendations could be adopted in full and domestic tuition fees slashed from £9,000 to £7,500, but even if this does come to pass Gen A could face the prospect of graduating with a large amount of student debt, that they start paying off earlier, at interest rates higher than today’s historic lows.

Right now, in the UK you seem to have more chance of driving a lorry than you do of obtaining a place on a graduate training scheme.

Much has been written about the “Future of Work” becoming more skilled by 2030, probably sooner. Whilst there is much evidence pointing towards a demand for graduate skills as a result of the fourth industrial revolution, what’s to say you cannot be trained on the job by your employer whilst earning, as opposed to taking three or four years out of the workforce to go to university?

Logistics companies, for instance, are likely to be willing to train people on the job and do a deal with Coursera or the next generation of online operators to upskill young people.

With the chance of learning a skill, having their education paid for and earning three years’ salary, the attraction of university life may be less evident to Gen A, particularly when they have grown up being told that employers see online degrees as the equal of in-person study.

Perceptions of degrees as the only gateway to a world of opportunity and a comfortable income may also come under increasing pressure. Research by the Higher Education Statistics Agency or HESA and Warwick University has suggested that in the UK, on average, graduates born in 1970 (GenX) earned 19% more than non-graduates by the age of 26, compared to graduates born in 1990 (GenY) who only earned 11% more.

The UK’s Office for National Statistics or ONS says that 36.6% of all graduates but 45.4% of recent graduates (a figure that rises to 59% in Liverpool) are working in non-graduate jobs while, in the US, it is estimated that 33.8% of all graduates are in jobs not requiring a degree.

28 years later

It may seem fanciful to look even further forward, towards what generational changes may have occurred by 2045, but it is already 24 years since Tony Blair’s pledge to make university a reality for 50% of young people in the UK.

Society seemed in favour of the idea at the time, but by 2010 the Association of Graduate Recruiters (AGR), whose 750 employer members recruited 30,000 graduates a year, was already calling for the target to be scrapped because it devalued degrees.

The current Government’s rejection of the target may be a watershed moment that reverses the trend for the coming 25 years.

It all leads to an intriguing and troubling proposition. A major indicator that someone will go to university is that at least one of their parents did, but if parents begin to counsel their children against attending we will be heading into totally new territory and a possible downward spiral.

University-educated parents actively briefing their children against going to university would be a cultural disruptor that makes full-time, in-person university attendance the exception rather than the norm.

Louise Nicol is founder of Asia Careers Group SDN BHD. Alan Preece is an expert in global education, business transformation and operational management and runs the blogging site View from a Bridge.

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay 

INDIA OVERTAKING CHINA AS KEY STUDENT MARKET MAY BE A GAME CHANGER FOR LOWER RANKED UNIVERSITIES

A year ago seems an age away but in January 2020 I was speculating about how the surge of student mobility from India might change the UK higher education sector in terms of demographics and financial benefit.  At that point I described the HESA data as ‘tantalising’ but with the 2019/20 enrollment data available by country and university it’s clear that things have moved quickly.  And there may also be lessons for US universities to consider as they ponder their post-pandemic international recruitment strategies.

The top line numbers from HESA DATA show that the total number of Indian students enrolled in UK higher education grew by 27960 (101.7%) between 2018/19 and 2019/20 compared to a growth of 20,790 (17.2%) for Chinese students.  For each country the growth in the number of undergraduates year on year was around 8,000 but India had an additional 19,000+ enrolled graduates year on year compared to around 12,000 for China.  It is the first sign of a new order for markets of origin with India sending over 5,000 more first year students than China in 2019.

More importantly, the distribution of Indian students by type of institution has proved to be significantly different to that of Chinese students.  One way to illustrate this is a comparison between the universities that saw the biggest year on year growth in each. It is striking that all of the universities with the greatest increase in the number of Chinese students are in the Russell Group but none of those with the most significant increases in Indian students are in the Group.

TABLE 1: Top Ten overall increases for Chinese and Indian Enrollments between 2018/19 and 2019/20

 Change in total enrolled Chinese student yoy from 2018/19 to 2019/20Change in total enrolled Indian students yoy from 2018/19 to 2019/20
Edinburgh141050
East London-151710
Leeds123545
Bedfordshire301595
Southampton1190-10
Hertfordshire-1351575
Sheffield115015
Northumbria901510
UCL106525
Kingston1601265
Manchester88575
Ulster-151230
Birmingham86010
Central Lancashire-1051180
Newcastle85550
Middlesex-110915
Kings College72550
Greenwich-185840
Nottingham72530
Coventry-85810
Note: To maintain consistency private and specialist universities excluded from table.  Of the private universities BPP registered a year on year growth of 1640 from India but a fall of 95 from China.  The London based University of the Arts showed a year on year growth of 790 from China and an additional 70 from India.

Source: HESA

Digging deeper indicates that location is not the main driver of these vastly differentiated enrollment patterns.  The situation for several cities with two main universities is shown below.  Manchester Metropolitan shows relatively balanced numbers but they are small changes and the differential is swamped by the University of Manchester’s growth in Chinese students.

TABLE 2: Selected cities showing change in university enrollments year on year

 China – student change yoyIndia – student change yoy
Birmingham86075
Birmingham City50800
Nottingham72550
Nottingham Trent-150270
Manchester88525
Manchester Metropolitan5070
Sheffield1150-10
Sheffield Hallam-135185

Source: HESA

What becomes clear is that lower ranked universities are securing a significantly greater proportion of the growth in Indian students.  This supports the notion that the changing importance of the two main source markets could have a major impact on the financial strength in different parts of the sector.  But the underlying drivers of the recruitment patterns are less obvious.      

It is likely that lower ranked universities represent better value for money in terms of fees, accommodation and other costs of study which is likely to be particularly attractive to self-funding students.  There is also a propensity for lower ranked universities to make offers at lower grades which means a less competitive route to selection and enrollment.  Several are located in areas that the UK census has shown have strong communities with contacts in India but that would not explain the differences within cities that have two universities.

The differences in performance are very striking and it raises a number of questions about the longer- term strategy of universities that are not currently recruiting heavily from the Indian market.  It seems possible that as numbers from China stabilise or even go into decline there will be greater competition for the growing numbers from India.  It is probably best for lower-ranked universities to make the most of this moment in the sun but if they have the opportunity to develop a solid local community and optimise their contacts with alumni the impact may be long lasting.

More troubling for some universities might be their failure to recruit strongly from either of these major markets in 2019/20.  There are some well-known names and reasonably ranked institutions that seem to be suffering as the big city Russell Group universities excel in recruiting students from China but who do not appear attractive to students from India.  It is interesting but seems counter intuitive that the two with the greatest loss from China year on year are partnered with pathway operators with traditional strengths in the country.

TABLE 3: Universities with the largest year on year loss of students from China (2018-19 to 2019-20)

UniversityChina – year on year change in total enrollmentsIndia – year on year change in total enrollments
Sussex– 34010
East Anglia– 26040
Hull– 2005
NOTE: I’d like to commend the University of Hull for their experiment in charging postgraduates starting in 2021 the same as Home students. It will be interesting to see how it works out.

 Source: HESA

As noted the University of Hull has embarked on an aggressive marketing ploy to charge postgraduate students the same fee as home students in 2021. As far as I am aware this is unique in the UK higher education system and it will be interesting to see how it works out. It’s certainly better than those universities that will continue to discriminate in favour of all European Union students who are now deemed international but are being allowed home student rates.

For UK universities there is unlikely to be any Government opposition to the growing numbers although experience shows it’s always possible for U-turns in policy.  As recently as 4 March, 2021, Minister for Future Borders and Immigration Kevin Foster said, “As we rebuild from the global pandemic we want the world’s brightest talent, who aspire to a career at the highest levels of business, science, the arts and technology to see our United Kingdom as the natural place to fulfil their aspirations.   The changes announced today will ensure once they have received a gold standard qualification from one of our world leading education institutions they can easily secure the status they need to continue living, working and fulfilling their dreams in the UK.”

It sounds great news for recruitment but I am reminded of a Government statement with the words, “We want high quality international students to come here. We want them to study at genuine institutions, whose primary purpose is providing a first class education. And we want the best of them – and only the best of them – to stay on and work here after their studies are complete.” This statement was made by then Home Secretary, The Rt Hon Theresa May, in 2011, shortly before the UK post-study work visa was removed.  It would probably only take an economic setback and rising numbers of unemployed graduates to see post-study work for international students being viewed less favourably by a Government that is still posturing about border control.

For US universities keen to make the most of revitalized interest from international students it is worth considering how recent research from IDP might dictate their engagement and offer strategy.  A survey of more than 800 prospective international students in more than 40 countries who are interested in studying in the US – with more than half of respondents based in India – found that more than three quarters (76%) have improved perceptions of the US since the 2020 presidential election, with 67% stating they are now more likely to study there.  What is clear from the UK experience is that the opportunity to recruit from India is available to almost all institutions if they can get the fundamentals right.

Critically, the emerging facts from the UK suggest that value in the cost of study is likely to be as significant a driver of interest as rankings.  Post study work is an important outcome but students, particularly those that are self-financing, will be equally interested in being able to minimize their outgoings during the course.  Making appropriate adjustments and moving decisively to work in market with a compelling message will be vital for institutions wanting to maximise international enrollments post-pandemic.

Fatal Four Way Match for Universities?

Economist John Maynard is famous for saying, “In the long run we are all dead”, but he also wrote, “there will be no harm in making mild preparations for our destiny”.  Universities might consider this as they struggle to encourage international students to overlook the near-term uncertainties of the pandemic in 2021. The real winners will be those readying for 2022 when all four of the major receiving Western countries are likely to be competing from a position of strength.

There is no point in the last twenty years when the US, UK, Canada and Australia have, at the same time, been growing aggressively or had in-country conditions enabling them to promote themselves effectively.  While globally mobile student numbers have grown there has always been a country operating with at least one hand tied behind its back.  It seems likely that this is about to change, which is going to bring unusual pressures to bear on recruitment efforts.   

If there is significant headway on vaccination rollouts, the pandemic recedes and internal country politics align it will be time for a revitalized UK, a desperate Australia, a confident Canada and a Biden-powered USA to do battle.  Those familiar with World Wrestling Entertainment’s Fatal Four Way match up may think it could be a contest that makes equally interesting viewing.  For international students it will mean a smorgasbord of opportunity, offers and opening doors.        

Overview and Trends

Data from individual countries are not standardized but the graph below focuses only on students identified as bachelors, postgraduate taught and doctoral for each country.  This eliminates the language only, non-degree and/or OPT registered elements that provide wider fluctuation and distortion between countries.  For example, significant elements of the recent Canadian international student growth are concentrated outside degree level programs.

The data indicates that when the US has done well Australia and the UK have been steady or in decline.  It also demonstrates the increasing place of Canada in degree level awards with every likelihood that the explosive growth at lower levels will feed through over time.

A starker way of visualising the pattern is to consider each country’s percentage share of the aggregate enrollements of all four and show how it has risen or declined year on year.  Changes in the US share correlate reasonably well to the shifts in the fortunes of other countries and particularly the UK and Australia.  The Canadian share is relatively stable but is likely to have an increased impact as the volume increases.

From 2002/03 to 2011/12 the US consistently lost market share against the other countries.  The burst of growth, which underpinned the expansion of investment in pathways in the US came from 2011/12 to 2015/16 when its share of the market grew.  The subsequent decline of US enrollments from 2016/17 has correlated with accelerated growth from Canada and Australia and latterly, the UK.  

Country by country factors broadly match the numbers and suggest that it was not competition alone that caused the ebbs and flows.  US growth in the 2000s was sluggish as the country proceeded with caution after the terrorist attacks of 9/11.  The UK stagnated after removal of post-study work visas in 2012.  Australian visa restrictions, from 2009 were followed by significant benevolent changes from 2013 onwards.  And Canada’s focus on growth came with particular emphasis from the 2011 Economic Action Plan and 2014-2019 International Education Strategy although its relative share was undermined by the US growth between 2011/12 and 2015/16.

The Global Picture

At a global level, the OECD measure of globally mobile students pursuing tertiary education gives an indicator of the competitive threats and opportunities that exist.   What seems most clear is that the trend has been for the non-OECD countries to increase their share of the market over time.  In 2018 they had 30% of the market while in 2000 they had only 24%, which suggests power is gradually moving away from the traditional receiving countries.

The big four will also suffer from the success of countries like Germany, the Netherlands and Russia taking an increasing share of OECD country growth.  A by-product of that may be the way that pathways – which have come to be a dominant part of the UK and Australian landscape – have to respond to the new era.  Pathways operations in Europe have become commonplace and Brexit may be another factor that accelerates their growth. 

Number of international or foreign students enrolled in OECD and non-OECD countries

Source: Education at a Glance 2020.  Figure B6.1. 

With growth likely to come from more price sensitive markets it may also be worth universities taking account of the relative changes in costs that may be coming around the corner.  It is interesting to watch foreign exchange predictions and there seems to be a view that the US dollar may weaken over the coming 18 months and increase the competitiveness of its services.  Alongside this there are voices suggesting strengthening of the UK pound, the National Bank of Canada expects the Canadian Dollar to appreciate, and there seems to be plenty of confidence in the future value of the Australian Dollar.

Conclusions

It seems reasonable to conclude that over the past two decades each of the main four recruiting countries has, from time to time, benefited because one of the main competitors has struggled to create the conditions for growth.  But no country with a thriving higher education section is going to willingly shut its doors forever and all the signs are that universities will need growth to offset economic conditions and government cutbacks in their home country or state. While it is easy to feel smart when things are going well; it is wiser to be smart about what is happening to the competitive set and what you can do to prepare for changing conditions. 

2021 remains uncertain but there is every reason to believe that 2022 will see greater competition across the globe.  In a head-to-head match, where the quality of the universities, visa availability and the possibility of post-study work become more equal, it will be interesting to see who wins.  The US has all the tools to win and its fall from being the most favored destination owes as much to its decrease in popularity as the increase in desire to go elsewhere.  

The time to prepare is now, and there is nothing to stop a smart US university giving real consideration to establishing a market-priced offering to students from the most rapidly growing source markets.  Establishing a high-profile recruitment platform in early 2021 would take advantage of the market sentiment towards the Biden administration supported by the gradual re-opening of visa offices.  Carpe diem may summarize 2021 but audentes fortuna iuvat should be on everyone’s lips for 2022.

Footnote

Data on international enrollments are not consistent across the main recruiting countries.  The data used takes sources where it appears to be possible to secure an aggregate number for total enrollments of international students undertaking a bachelors, postgraduate taught or doctoral degree.  The sources for each country are itemised below and any insights or corrections to my assumptions are welcome.  The data are also subject to other anomalies which make comparison a subjective business.  The main points to make in that regard are:

i) Australian data appears on a calendar year.  Placing this against sources reporting academic years requires making a judgement about which year compares to which but is not material in the context of the main line of argument in this blog.

ii) UK data used are from the latest HESA release (27 January 2021) for the most recent five years and use historical data for the years before.  In building the spreadsheets I noticed that the numbers in the most recent release differ slightly from those in prior releases.  These differences are not significant enough to make a difference to the main argument.

iii) EU student data has been omitted from the UK data because the economic incentive to recruit them is not the same as international students who can be charged higher fees than home students.

iv) The timing of data collection is likely to be an increasingly important factor as universities increase their number of entry points in the year.  This is likely to be a contributing factor to the HESA data noted above. 

v) Sources

– US data from IIE Open Doors download of historical data and analysis of Undergraduate (Bachelors and Associate), and Graduate only:

– UK data from Higher Education Statistics Authority.  Latest release for most recent five years but historical data before that time.  Non-European Union, all levels (UG and PG) and all modes of study:

– Australia data from Department of Education, Skills and Employment, Higher Education Statistics, uCUBE, Enrolments Overseas, Sum of Postgraduate and Bachelors, 2001-2019 (removed enabling and non-award):

– Canada data from Statistics Canada, Postsecondary enrolments, by registration status, institution type, status of student in Canada and gender. Selected University,   International Students, all fields of study, 2000/2001 to 2018/19.  Sum of International Standard Classification of Bachelors, Masters and Doctoral (and equivalents) for Canada:

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

US Pathway and University Enrollments Looking Grim

Early signs are showing the scale of decline in Fall 2020 international enrollments in the US and how pathway enrollments may be even more disappointing. Everyone has been expecting a deterioration in numbers and it comes after several bruising years where many pathway providers have closed operations. INTO University Partnerships and Shorelight are the dominant players in a troubled market and their partners at Colorado State University and Auburn University make it possible to drill down to pathway level.

It’s an early snapshot of what is likely to be happening around the US in Fall 2020 and also an indicator of what the pathway pipeline of international students looks like. It makes for sombre reading if you are a big player in the US pathway business and represents a financial blow on two fronts. Low enrollments make it difficult to run the pathway profitably or get any contribution to overhead. It also means several years of lower income the operator gets from its percentage of tuition fee per student in the university in succeeding years.

INTO CSU and Colorado State University
At Colorado State University (CSU) the overall international numbers have been dropping slowly for a couple of years. But Fall 2020 total enrollments dropped 22% year on year. Longer term pain may be signalled by the declining pipeline from its pathway partner.

Source: Colorado State University Institutional Research Planning and Effectiveness

Since Fall 2017 the number of undergraduate and graduate enrollments in the INTO pathway at CSU has declined by 54%, but in absolute numbers the drop in enrollments of 42 students (35%) from Fall 2019 to Fall 2020 has been the largest ever. Graduate enrollment declines are outpacing those of undergraduate students but both are falling sharply.

Source: Colorado State University Institutional Research Planning and Effectiveness

It’s worth remembering that INTO closed its pathway business with Marshall University earlier this year. This was covered in a blog back in March 2020, with the growing levels of inter-company debt between INTO University Partnerships and several of its US pathways explored in a May 2020 blog. Colorado State University was near the same inter-company debt level as Marshall, and it seems unlikely to get any better after this year.

Shorelight and Auburn University
Auburn had been showing healthy growth and outperforming most US universities for several years. But total 2020 Fall enrollments are down by 18% on 2019. Underpinning this is a 21% drop in Chinese students whose numbers have fallen from 1881 to 1489 year on year.

Auburn University Enrollments by Country – all colleges/schools, departments and primary majors

While an 18% drop in total enrollments might not be too bad a result in the current year it does not look as if Auburn will be able to rely on Auburn Global, the partnership between Auburn and Shorelight, for stability or future growth. There has been a 69% drop year on year (384 to 119) in enrollments on four key Auburn Global programs. Perhaps more troubling is that this number is driven by a 66% decline in the number of Chinese students enrolled in the programs (325 to 109).

Auburn University Enrollments by Country – Auburn Global – Academic, Extended, and Masters Accelerator Programs (First and Second term)

It’s reasonable to add that Auburn and Shorelight are working hard to promote an online option starting in October. This is positioned as offering “the perfect solution for international students who would like to earn academic credits virtually this fall”. Students can earn 9-12 credits on the Academic Accelerator Program and 7-8 credits on the Extended Accelerator Program. They will work through Zoom and pay the same price as on campus students.

Long term observers of the global recruitment business know that there is an ebb and flow to country performance but it cannot be easy for private pathway operators trying to satisfy private equity holders when a market looks to be in free fall. Huron appears to have backed its investment in Shorelight with a further infusion of $13m in the first quarter of 2020 but that was pre-pandemic. There seems to be a lot riding on the possibility of online delivery being attractive to students but that remains an unknown quantity.

By way of a contrast the UCAS data on UK university international undergraduate acceptances suggests students are already voting with their feet. International students placed in September 2020 were up 10% (4030) to 44300 with students from China up 27% to 12980. There’s still plenty of uncertainty around and the growing number of coronavirus cases on university campuses may bring the party to a grinding halt. But, for now, many universities are chartering planes to fly students into the country to bolster their chances of turning enrollments into attendance.

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

US PATHWAY SECTOR FACES DOUBLE WHAMMY UNDER ENROLLMENT PRESSURE

It appears that the cull of pathway operations in the US has further to go. The Navitas website suggests that Global Student Success Programs at UMass Lowell, UMass Dartmouth and Florida Atlantic University have been discontinued.  All of them throw up the message, “The Global Student Success Program is no longer accepting new applications..” * It’s the same story for Virginia Commonwealth University and the University of Idaho links.

Looking more deeply, the figures from UMass Lowell show a precipitous drop in Navitas enrollments from 187 in Fall 2016 to just 81 in Fall 2018.  The numbers for 2019 aren’t available on the university site but a further dip seems likely.  If these are permanent closures it brings Navitas down to three pathways in US from eight at its peak.  Overall, the number of on-campus pathways in the US may have fallen to around 40 and its little wonder some are making a “pandemic sales pitch” that they are really masters of online technology.

With the pressure on US international enrollments growing year by year it’s difficult to see that there is a lot of good news to come.  Rumours abound and are difficult to verify but in recent weeks I’ve been told of a pathway run by one of the big two operators at a top 200 east coast university that is looking at a 70% decline in enrollments year on year.  It’s a very long way from the suggestion made in 2014 by Parthenon Group partner Karan Khemka, that “We anticipate that growth will be constrained only by the pace at which private providers can develop the market.”

We are seeing a wholesale realignment of the pathway sector but alongside that there may also be a double whammy as universities seek to renegotiate commercial terms in the light of changing market conditions.  For example, the University of South Carolina Board of Trustee minutes from April 2019 make for interesting reading as they reflect on the changing nature of the university’s deal with Shorelight.  The initial deal had been signed for seven years in 2015 and the proposal was to re-sign for another seven but with “better financial terms for the University”.

One big shift indicated was that USC would be allowed to keep 90% of the tuition paid by students in years following the pathway and pay Shorelight 10% of the tuition.  Under the initial agreement the split was 83% to USC and 17% to Shorelight, so on an out of state, undergraduate student fee of $16,700 that’s a cut of just over $1,100 a year per student.  It’s worth remembering that Shorelight noted early in their history that, “not only does the university not contribute anything upfront to get the program off the ground…but Shorelight reimburses the university for any expenses as it’s getting off the ground.”

The obvious question for traditional pathways is how they remain sustainable when the university is bearing none of the start up costs, and if the provider’s revenue share from students going into the university is being reduced.  In a recent blog I looked at the growing inter-company debt between INTO University Partnerships and its US pathways where, the collective debt owed by five joint ventures open for at least five years, had from under $5m to nearly $15m. The closure of the pathway at INTO’s partner Marshall University came as enrollments fell and inter-company debt rose sharply.

While $1100 a student doesn’t sound very much the real point is that this becomes a loss of $110,000 a year if you have 100 students progressing and $330,000 over the lifetime of the cohort. Add to that the increasing cost of acquisition of each student as global competition increases and the basic economics of a pathway come under serious pressure.

It also raises the question as to how sustainable are the remaining pathway operations as the US faces another bleak year for international enrollment.  A recent Open Doors survey reported 52% of US universities indicating a decline in enrollments for 2020.  Navitas research with agents recently suggested that declining student mobility and growing unpopularity could see the US lose between 160,000 and 350,000 international students.

Alongside the well-known and longer-term internal issues facing students who might previously have seen the US as their preferred option there is little doubt that competition is playing an increasingly important role.  The UK has made good headway and become a more popular destination this year which has led to an increase in undergraduate enrollment from China of 14% this year.  Canada continues to provide an attractive option with clear routes to citizenship that have been particularly successful in attracting Indian students in recent years.

Supply and demand are powerful and remorseless market disciplinarians.  The dash for growth in the US pathways came supported by over $1bn of private money flowing into the sector, but the economics of creating more and more supply at a point when demand was slowing have become evident.  With global competition for students increasing, student mobility threatened and universities finding alternative means of reaching the market – particularly online – it’s probably a hard road ahead.  

*As always I am happy to have authoritative corrections or clarifications and will record them.

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

No Easy Pathways – Even Before the Pandemic

As a relief from the global pandemic, it was interesting to take some time to look a little harder at recent developments from the Study Group, Shorelight and INTO camps.  It’s a further reminder of how the US pathway sector was climbing a mountain even before the pandemic brought new challenges to international student enrollments.

Study Group

Study Group looks to be adding to last year’s closures in North America with pathways at both Royal Roads in Canada and the University of Vermont shutting down.   Both institutions are still featured on the Study Group website but there is hard evidence in once case and strong rumour in the other.  As ever, I’m happy to accept an authoritative response and correction if this is incorrect.

Minutes from Royal Roads Board of Governors meeting dated March 31, 2020 state: “The Study Group partnership was entered in 2011 to deliver preparatory pathway programs and expand international student recruitment into university programs. Following a formal review, a decision was taken to not renew the contract when it expires August 2020…….. A team will be struck in early 2020 to manage the transition to wind down the partnership by August 31.”

The change comes as Royal Roads posts some interesting statistics about its international student enrollment expectations.  From 577 international student FTEs in onshore credit programs in 2018/19 they are forecasting 1,012 in 2020/21 – an eye-watering 75% growth.  The expectation is spelt out very clearly “…with revenue increasing by $4.5M (35%) from $13.0M in 2019/20 to $17.5M in 2020/21.”

While there’s no institutional announcement, strong feedback from the market suggests that the Study Group relationship with the University of Vermont will come to an end later this year.  The partnership started in early 2014 with the stated aim to ‘recruit approximately 140 international students per year with a two-term pathway sequence’.

The University doesn’t give exact details on the Study Group contribution but over the five years total Fall international enrollments rose to a peak in 2017 and fell back below 2015 levels in 2019.  Non-degree international enrollments peaked at 171 in Fall 2015 and have declined since to 88 in 2019.  It’s a story that’s been hear all around the US but it’s worth remembering as a sign of the times that this is a University ranked 121 by US News in 2020.

This follows Study Group’s announcement of three pathway partnerships closing in 2019 at the universities of  Roosevelt, Widener and Merrimack and the closure of the Oglethorpe University pathway earlier in 2020.  For those trying to keep up here’s the list (with closures highlighted in red) which includes DePaul and Hartford taken over from EC Higher Education in 2019. 

Shorelight

Shorelight’s website suggests that since its first partnerships in the US in 2014, it has grown to 19 partners.  The relationship with UMass Boston does not appear to be a traditional pathway (which seems to rest with Navitas).  The American Collegiate (DC and LA versions) do not appear on the list of traditional, full-service partners and appear to be short summer programs along with a year-long undergraduate level course through UCLA extension. 

Huron Consulting Group Inc. is a long-term investor in Shorelight Holdings LLC (the parent of Shorelight Education) with an initial investment of $27.9m in 2014 and 2015.  Huron’s recent Form 10-K filing showed that in the first quarter of 2020 it invested a further $13m.   The initial investments were zero coupon convertible debt instruments maturing on July 1, 2020 but that maturation date has been extended to 17 January 2024 which matches the date the new investment matures.

The pathway sector has seen a significant amount of investment in the potential of a strong US portfolio but the growing tensions are stark.  In a recent Boston Globe article, Ben Waxman, chief executive officer of International Education Advantage, argued “International enrollment is going to plummet like a rock” due to the pandemic.  In the same article Shorelight’s cofounder, Tom Dretler, said the company is still seeing increased interest from foreign students in enrolling in US colleges for summer and fall programs. He noted that universities will have to offer these students a more engaging online experience. Time will tell.

INTO University Partnerships (INTO)

Growing global and in-country competition were probably factors undermining the growth of early INTO success stories like Marshall University.  The pathway at Marshall closed earlier this year and leaves INTO with 11 partners in the US.  As noted in a previous blog, enrollment to both the pathway and directly to Marshall had been falling for several years.

A look at INTO’s most recent published accounts for the year to 31 July 2019 show that there may be more dark clouds on the horizon.  Taking US pathways that have been open five years or more (including Marshall) it is noticeable that the level of debt owed by the joint ventures to INTO has grown from under £5m to nearly £15m.  Colorado State University (CSU) and Drew are at or above the same levels as Marshall. 

It’s probably a bit early to see the direction of travel for new joint ventures Hofstra, Suffolk or Illinois State.  But St Louis University’s level of indebtedness has remained at around the same level for four years, and the University of Birmingham Alabama has moved from owing £895k in its first reported year to £4.96m in 2019.  Washington State University has seesawed with a first-year indebtedness of £1.74m followed by a recovery but then a rise back to £1.34m in the latest accounts.

None of this has stopped company founder Andrew Colin from moving up 133 places year on year in the Sunday Times Rich List published this month.  What’s interesting is that the Sunday Times valued the business (based on 2017/18 information) at £200m which would suggest that Leeds Equity’s 25% stake was worth £50m.  That’s after a £66m investment made in 2013.

Of course, all of this is before the coronavirus and a global pandemic that has created havoc with traditional student choices and may alter global mobility forever. The US was in decline as a destination of first choice for several years before the virus, and there is little to suggest it has risen to the competitive threat. A recent IDP survey showed the US lagging behind on key measures as students are making their decisions.

There is already evidence that Canada and Australia are responding more aggressively to support international student recruitment after the peak coronavirus period.  Even the UK had done more to revive its flagging fortunes and was looking towards a bumper intake in 2020.  It leaves pathway operators and universities in the US in a very tough place.

 Image by Arek Socha from Pixabay

The Dwindling Party* – More Pathway Closures in the US

Pathways providers are cock-a-hoop about the UK this year but there’s a slightly embarrassed silence about continuing closures in the US.  A quick spin through the websites tells us that INTO looks to be shuttering one of its early partners and Study Group has trimmed another from its stable.  And there are plenty of discussions about where the axe might fall next (with one contender noted below).

INTO’s portal for students claims 13 US partners but according to the corporate website there are “12..in the US”.  It’s not entirely clear which university was intended to be mysterious number 13, but a click on the number leads to just 11 partner logos shown.  The missing partner is Marshall University in Huntington, WV.

The Marshall deal was signed in November 2012 with the first students entering the pathway in August 2013.  It was the heady days of expansion in the US and the opening came the same year that Leeds Equity took a 25% stake in the INTO University Partnerships business for £66m ($105.8m). With Shorelight Education launched shortly afterwards there was a lot of private money betting that US expansion would guarantee international student growth for a long time to come.

But Marshall’s non-resident alien population and the strength of the INTO pathway have declined sharply in recent years.  Institutional data showing early fall statistics shows a fall of 37.6% enrolled at INTO Marshall and 38.7% in the university overall (which implies that direct recruitment was falling faster).    

Table One: Marshall University International Student Enrollments

With respect to Study Group, I reported on closure of three US Centers back in September but since that time yet another has disappeared from the list of logos on the website: Oglethorpe University.  A visit to the University’s website confirms that the last intake was September 2019, and that the International Study Center won’t exist after May 2020.  The partnership was announced in 2017 with President Lawrence Schall, stating, “As part of our globalization strategy, choosing the right pathway partner was important.”

Reasons for the closure are not easy to discern, as the Oglethorpe Fact book suggests significant improvement of international numbers year-on-year for 2019 entry.  The number of countries for represented for first-timers had also increased slightly.  Maybe the future did not look bright enough.     

Table 2: Oglethorpe University International Enrollments

  Fall 2018 Enrollment Fall 2019 Enrollment
First time, full time international 16 41
Full time traditional undergraduate profile 97 122

While walking through the pathway websites I also came across Cambridge Education Group suggesting that a pathway with Illinois Institute of Technology, first announced in early 2018, is still ‘coming soon’.  When I clicked on the link for Illinois Institute of Technology Direct Entry I found an error page.  Careless at best if this is an important relationship but perhaps indicative of more deep-rooted reconsideration.  As always, I am happy to clarify this if I receive an authoritative correction and explanation.

It seems likely that the US will suffer even more retrenchment in international student enrollments over the coming year.  The resurgence of the UK will almost certainly affect the US more than other locations, with the recently reported 93% increase in student visas from India just the early part of the surge to take advantage of enhanced post study work visas.  Of course, the implications of coronavirus have yet to play out fully and that may mean that all bets are off. 

*The Dwindling Party is a book by Edward Gorey where pop-up illustrations and verses divulge how, one by one, six members of the MacFizzet family, disappear during a visit to Hickyacket Hall, leaving behind only young Neville, who expects “it was all for the best.”  It’s an interesting metaphor.

Image by Mediamodifier from Pixabay 

SEVIS Report Suggests India Woes for US Higher Education

The January 2020 reporting from SEVIS* reveals a continuing decline in international student enrollments from Asia in the US.  The figures also point to growing problems with higher education enrollments by students from India.  Even post-study work program Optional Practical Training (OPT), which has propped up the recent headline numbers presented by Open Doors, may be struggling

Over the three-year period** from December 2017 the SEVIS Data Mapping Tool shows a decline of 70,194 student visa holders*** from Asia – a drop of 7.6%.  The percentage of the total from Asia has fallen from 77.2% to 75.47% over the period.  Tables 1 and 2 look at aggregate SEVIS numbers while tables 3 and 4 look at specific levels of study.

Table 1 – SEVIS Data Mapping of Asian Student Visa Holders December 2017 to January 2020 

Source: SEVIS

Digging further into the data by country the latest numbers show particular reductions in the number of visa holders from China and Indian.  The 2017 to 2018 loss for the two countries was just over 11,000 but this accelerated with a drop of a further 20,000 from 2018 to January 2020.  Particularly troubling was the rapid decline in Indian visa holders where a 3,500 fall from 2017 to 2018 became a further decline of 14,200 to January 2020.

Table 2   SEVIS Data Mapping of China and India Student Visa Holders December 2017 to January 2020 

Source: SEVIS

SEVIS also provides an opportunity to see which type of student visa holder has been most affected by the decline.  There are a number of categories but the focus will be on students listed in the Doctoral, Masters and Bachelor’s category as these are most relevant to universities and colleges.  China and India show quite different patterns with the latter suggesting a rapidly worsening situation for higher education enrollment.

Accelerating Decline from India

A breakdown of the India student visa holder numbers shows that the number listed at Master’s level fell by around 7,000 from 2017 to 2018 and then a further 19,850 to January 2020.  A modest upswing of around 3,300 in Bachelor’s and, a more encouraging, 5,400 in Doctor’s complete the picture.  If the Master’s level deterioration continues there will need to be continuing growth in other categories to take up the slack.

It has been noted in many quarters that the UK’s reinstatement of a benevolent post-study work visa regime is already providing attractive to students from India.  Visas granted to students from India were up 63% year on year to September 2019.  With the full implementation of the new regime for students starting their degree in Fall 2020 it is widely anticipated that this will be a bumper year for enrollments in the UK and may bring more challenges for the US.

Table 3 SEVIS Data Mapping of India Master’s, Bachelor’s and Doctoral Level Student Visa Holders  (December 2017 to January 2020)

Source: SEVIS

China Stable But Pipeline May Be Thinning

The China breakdown is showing that the same three categories are reasonably robust but that there has been a decline in Secondary, Associate and Language levels.  This is a development which might, over the longer term, impact on the pipeline of students moving on to higher education.  With the range of potential US enrollment challenges relating to Chinese students growing there is plenty of reason to be concerned that Fall 2020 and beyond will be impacted.

While coronavirus is a rapidly developing issue that is likely to disrupt recruitment of Chinese students to all countries there is little doubt that recent rhetoric and actions in the US have also done damage that may be lasting.  With friendlier tones taken by competitor countries and the availability of better value, good quality options for an increasingly economically pressed middle class in China it may be that even maintaining enrollment levels will be a struggle.  While the decline in China’s 18-year old population has leveled out it will not return to the volumes seen in the last decade in the near future.

Table 4 SEVIS Data Mapping of China Master’s, Bachelor’s and Doctoral Level Student Visa Holders showing also combined Secondary, Associate and Language Holders (December 2017 to January 2020)

Source: SEVIS

As has been noted it is difficult to get to the underlying picture on enrollments because of the intermingling of different visa types and the particular issues related to the historical growth of visa holders doing OPT.  The rapid drop in the numbers for India would, however, suggest that there is a degree of market movement and that US Consul General Joel Reifman’s thoughts on relations between the two countries needs some work.

If, as suggested by some commentators, the size of the decline in Indian Master’s students is partly due to them reaching the end of OPT and not being replaced by incoming students this might suggest that students are becoming used to selecting countries that offer a better path for work or citizenship.  That does not seem like particularly good news for the longer term.   There are plenty of competitors willing to offer alternatives.

Notes

*SEVIS is the web-based tool that the Department of Homeland Security uses to maintain information on non-immigrant students, exchange visitors and their dependents.

**The SEVIS data is not exact to the month on a year by year basis.  The charts reflect the month of publication for the figures shown. 

***The term ‘student visa holder/s’ is used to describe the aggregate numbers shown by SEVIS for the region, countries and/or levels of study shown.