Tag: ukhighereducation

UK International Enrolments Unchained

The latest HESA figures (released 31 January 2023) give a further instalment and insight on the extraordinary recent changes in global student mobility and the impact on UK universities.  As predicted in early 2020 the growth of India as a market, largely encouraged by a more welcoming post-study work situation, has substantially altered the landscape.  This blog takes a look at other significant changes, a snapshot of key countries and who the winners and losers are in the enrollment stakes. The focus is on full-time students1 and there are a few words of caution at the end.

Overview    

After a few relatively flat years the period from 2018/19 to 2021/22 has seen a CAGR of 17.39% in enrolment of full-time, non-EU international students. Part-time, non-EU international students have grown by a CAGR of 10.44% from a much lower base. While part-time changes are interesting the focus here remains on full-time numbers.

The first and most obvious thing about the mix of students is that Postgraduate Taught numbers have accelerated rapidly and particularly so from 2020/21 to 2021/22.  The total number of postgraduates is up 117% over the period with the total number of undergraduates up 26%.  A strong performance but always with the risk that postgraduates usually only come for a single year and as global competition increases may look elsewhere.

It is no surprise to anyone to see that India has been the dominant driver of the change.  But both “Other Asia” and “Nigeria” enrolments have increased by more than China since 2018/19. 

  NB: This chart has not been disaggregated for Full and Part-time.  Increases in part-time students are relatively modest over the period.

“Other Asia” is worth disaggregating and the chart below shows the change in enrolments over the past four years in the countries with the highest number of students in the UK.  Most noticeable in volume terms is the year-on-year growth from Bangladesh and Pakistan.  68% of full-time students from Bangladesh and 67% from Pakistan are postgraduate taught compared to 80% of those from both India and Nigeria. By contrast 52.6% of full-time Chinese students and just 17% of Hong Kong students are postgraduate taught. 

 Country By Country Review

The countries to follow for volume growth are clearly India, Nigeria, Pakistan and Bangladesh and at each individual country level the march of the non-Russell Group universities goes on. This section focuses on the year-on-year growth from selected countries.

India

Coventry added 2,900 full time enrolments from India year-on-year and now stands only behind the University of Hertfordshire in terms of the largest Indian contingent in the UK.   Nearly half the year-on-year total increase from India for the UK came in the ten universities with the most significant change in enrolments.

There are also some interesting shifts within universities in terms of their balance of students.   As shown in the table below, the universities of Leicester and Brunel are in the top ten for increases in students from India (but are among the biggest losers from China).  Roehampton University’s year on year growth of 332.9% is quite startling.   The Russell Group universities have not been totally out of the picture with Glasgow, Manchester and Warwick all managing to add 1,000 or more Indian students year on year.

There may also be a word of warning due for institutions growing their numbers from India and relying on the increased volume being sustainable.  Five universities lost over 20% of their Indian enrolments year-on-year in 2021/22.  The University of Wolverhampton may offer a salutary tale with a rollercoaster ride from 85 in 2018/19 to 1360 in 2020/21 but a decline in 2021/22 to below its level of 840 in 2019/20. Any failure to offset that from other countries could be a serious financial hit.

Nigeria

The table for Nigeria shows the top six gainers to include the University of Hull’s extraordinary increase of 1207%, while of the 915 there are 870 postgraduate taught. The University of Hertfordshire has the largest number of Nigerian student enrolments in the UK and of the total 1,915 (83.8%) are postgraduate taught.  The best Russell Group performance was the University of Glasgow which increased by 60 students to 170.

Pakistan

The growth in enrolments from Pakistan is generally more widely spread, although non-Russell Group universities dominated recruitment from the market.  Queen Mary University of London was the best performing Russell Group university with an increase of 30 year-on-year.  The University of Hertfordshire performance puts it in the top five in terms of volume growth for each of Nigeria, Pakistan and Bangladesh and in the top ten for India.  If there were an overall league table they would probably lead on points.

Bangladesh

The University of Hertfordshire also features strongly in Bangladesh where it’s year on year growth put it in the top five.  Further down the rankings there are some significant percentage increases but from lower bases with De Montfort, for example, increasing from 50 to 390 and Cardiff Metropolitan going from 30 to 325.  Queen Mary University of London is the best placed Russell Group university with, um, 80.

China

The exception to the general rule continues to be China where the two Russell Group universities in Scotland are showing substantial growth.  University of the Arts is possibly the surprise packet in the top five for growth and other notable growth in a field dominated by the Russell Group institutions was shown by Goldsmiths College (470) and Kingston University (515).

As noted in previous blogs, however, the strong recruitment performance in China is not universal for the Russell Group.  The universities with the greatest year on year reduction in Chinese students are Liverpool and Newcastle with Queen’s University Belfast and Cardiff doing well below par for the sector.  In the context of their performance in India (as discussed above) it would be interesting to know if the universities of Leicester and Brunel have changed strategy because of opportunity or an inability to compete with brand sensitive students from China.

Summary and Thoughts

Taken in conjunction with previously reported trends in enrolment from 2018/19 to 2021/22 it is clear that the changes in growth markets have presented significant enrolment and financial opportunities for universities who may have struggled to recruit heavily in China.  There seems little doubt that while there is a benevolent, post-study work visa regime, universities in the UK will be able to continue making progress in India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nigeria.  Whether Russell Group institutions sharpen up their strategies or choose to wait (possibly hope) for a return of Chinese students remains to be seen.

What is also in the mix is whether the enrolment trend is driven solely by successful institutions offering some mix of low cost (both tuition and accommodation), sympathetic local culture, lower entry criteria and dynamic recruitment tactics.  The disparity in volume growth between Russell Group institutions and many well ranked universities such as Surrey, Loughborough, Bath and Lancaster seems extreme.  Perhaps some institutions need to look harder at their international office strategies. 

It is noticeable that of the top 40 universities in the 2023 Complete University Guide only the University of Leicester (29th) makes an impression among the best recruiters from India.  This may be another sign that students are largely ignoring rankings and pursuing a degree in a country where they will have the option to work during and after study.  These are features that are more about Government policy than university excellence.

There are, of course, other implications for the scale of growth being seen.  It is noticeable that the University of Bradford has closed applications to some courses for 2023 and that Oxford Brookes and the University of Salford have also made adjustments to constrain the number of applications being received from certain countries.  It is almost certain that other universities will be doing the same.

Beyond that are the financial implications. The University of Hertfordshire is in the top five gainers for the four biggest growth markets and this is reflected in the percentage of income arising from international tuition fees. From just 11.6% of total income in 2018/19 the fees are now worth 31.9% of total income.

One must also consider how those with sudden increases, like the University of Hull with an increase of 1207% in its students from Nigeria, will manage the student experience.  In 2020/21 Nigerian students made up 3.8% of the university’s full time international population but in 2021/22 they will be 30.2% of the group.  These are substantial shifts that require careful attention to maintain reputation and quality of academic performance.

Finally, there is the likelihood that growth will have continued into 2022 enrolments.  With the majority of students now coming as postgraduates for one year and an increasing propensity to intend to stay after studying, the summer of 2023 is likely to see greater competition for graduate jobs than ever before.  Whether the UK is ready to manage that opportunity successfully in the middle of a recession and with a Conservative Government planning its strategy for an election just 18 months away remains to be seen.

NOTES

  1. The focus is on full-time students to avoid any distortion from individual universities doing significantly better with part-time students.

Image by Jan Alexander from Pixabay 

New Year, New INTO?

INTO University Partnerships’ (INTO) recently released Report and accounts made up to 31 July 2022 point to the impact of the pandemic, global student mobility changes and the financial health of pathways.  There are also three new board appointments in the past three months to consider in a higher education recruitment environment where talk of consolidation is gathering pace.  The court case with the University of South Florida is noted as a contingent liability.

And The Tide’s Gonna Turn1

Starting with the Board appointments, there is reason to celebrate as INTO moves from being a board of six men in the previous year’s Report to a smorgasbord (pun intended) of seven men and three women in January 2023.  That makes the group board bigger than the INTO Executive team of nine – four men and five women.  At the date and time of writing the new Board Directors haven’t appeared on the corporate website which is a bit of a shame as two were appointed at the start of November.

It’s not clear whether the new appointees signal a reshaping of strategic direction for INTO.  Annalisa Gigante started at Bain&Co and one profile highlights that “..her key focus areas are sustainability, digital technologies including AI and IoT, new business models, and building high performing teams.”  Nicholas Adlam was at Bain&Co for five years (not overlapping with Annalisa) and held a number of management roles before joining INTO as “growth and transformation” consultant in 2020.  I am guessing that Tamsin Todd is the same individual as the CEO of Find My Past but INTO is not listed on her LinkedIn profile and I can find no supporting announcement of the appointment.

Another Year Older and Deeper In Debt2

Turnover for the year to 31 July 2022 is shown as an adjusted figure improving by £15m to £138m but its worth remembering that the adjustment removes discontinued operations.  For reference the adjusted turnover was shown as £194m in the Report to 31 July 2019.  Back in the Report for 2017 the Group turnover was shown as £276.5m which suggests that the closure of partnerships and the pandemic may have halved its size since then3.

To try and put some sense of the changes since then the 2017 Report noted the “Number of INTO partnerships” as 24.  In the most recent report there appear to be 50% holdings in 11 operational ventures plus 51% in INTO Newcastle and 100% of INTO SLU.  The relationship with Hofstra University is not noted in any form in the current Report.

What has continued to mount is the debt owed by joint ventures to INTO University Partnerships.  The year-on-year increase in debt is over £8m with the majority of the change reflecting the longer-term trend of partnerships in the US becoming increasingly indebted.  This reflects the challenges facing US pathways in recent years. 

How Long Can This Go On?4

New faces and the end of the pandemic could lead to a reset and INTO certainly seems in need of it.  The US operation saw the return of David Stremba as SVP of Partnership Development, North America and the UK leadership team was re-jigged last year with a seeming change in focus across Russell Group and non-Russell Group universities in the portfolio.  Perhaps a combination of direct recruitment contracts, in person and in country activity through initiatives like the University Access Centres, and the return of student demand from China will see a change in fortunes.   

There are, however, headwinds.  While the UK has had a boom in international recruitment over the past three years partners like Newcastle University and the University of East Anglia have underperformed the sector.  In the US it seems that Shorelight has been making much more rapid progress on direct recruitment and has retained more pathway partners than INTO.  The public and apparently acrimonious split with the University of South Florida may be unhelpful to INTO in brokering new deals.

Whether there is some merit or enough financial firepower for a merger, sale or takeover with another operator may be one question to answer.  Some form of alliance with a careers/employability focused partner or building/buying a credible online delivery operation might also add some interest to what looks a dated offering.  All things for the new board members to ponder.             

NOTES

There’s a working theme to the sub-titles.

  1. A lyric of hope from “9 to 5” by the wonderful Dolly Parton. The song—and film— were released in 1980 and owe their titles to 9to5, National Association of Working Women,  an organization founded in 1973 with a mission supporting women working for equal pay, power and participation.
  2. Slightly adjusted line (the lyric says “day” not “year”) from 16 Tons written by Merle Travis.  It is based on life in the mines of Muhlenberg County, Kentucky.  Several lines in the lyrics are direct quotes from his brother and father who worked in the mines.
  3. The adjustment of figures is difficult to follow.  Links are given to the source data for those who wish to investigate further and I am always happy to receive and publish an authoritative correction.
  4. From Working In the Coal Mine which was written by Allen Toussaint and a hit for Lee Dorsey in 1966.  Neither had ever been down a coal mine

Image by Arek Socha from Pixabay 

PATHWAYS GREAT CONSOLIDATION?

Last week’s news that Oxford International Education Group (OIEG) is in the hunt for buying Cambridge Education Group (CEG) could be the first step in consolidation for the pathway sector.  It comes after a few torrid years where aspirations for pathway growth in the US foundered and the pandemic wreaked havoc with global student mobility.  Murmurs that QA Higher Education may also be on the block and long-standing speculation that Andrew Colin and/or Leeds Equity might seek options on their investment in INTO make for a potential realignment of interests.

On the face of it a trade sale for CEG has the advantage of reducing recruiter competition in a market where new entrants have been one factor in the growing cost of student acquisition.  It would also make for a group that had some genuine clout with fifteen UK pathway partners1 including a Russell Group name in the University of Southampton.  Both have minor interests in the US and CEG bring European partners and a burgeoning digital business with ten partners listed.

In the UK2 this would make it larger than Navitas (11), Kaplan (11) and INTO (6) and the same size as Study Group (who lost Coventry London in 2022 and where rumours suggest another possible defection in the north of England).  It’s a point where you could see one of those players having a look at QA Higher Education who have seven university partners including four where they offer a pathway but six where they deliver an undergraduate degree programme in partnership with a university.  The restructuring could even extend into consolidation of pathway operators with the aggregator and OPM markets.   

From Strength or Weakness?  

A recent comment on mergers and acquisitions suggested that “you can’t keep a good capitalist down and eventually greed will overcome fear.”  Many investors have cash in hand after a year with little action and there are suggestions CEG is available for between £150m and £200m.  The financial returns of the various elements of CEG and OIEG are not easy to divine from published information but one can either read or deduce a number of things:

Cambridge Education Group

The financials below come from the accounts of Camelot Topco, ultimate parent company of CEG3, for the year ended 31 August 2021.

ONCAMPUS revenue declined in 2021 to £39.6m due to the pandemic but was £54.4m in 2020.  CEG Digital revenue increased to £12.1m in 2021 from £6.2m in 2020 (one would presume partly due to pandemic related online measures).  Underlying EBITDA was £7.8m in 2020 but fell back to £3.2m in 2020 due to the pandemic.  Across the two business there were around 4,000 students enrolled.

Oxford International Education Group

The financials below come from the accounts of Sparrowhawk 2 Limited, the holding company of OIEG4, for the year ended 31 August 2022.  The comparative year on year numbers span the acquisition of the business in early 2021.

Overall turnover increased to £58.8m from £33.4m the previous year.  This includes pathways, a separate English language business, operations in north America, IELTS testing and two businesses in India.  It is possible to deduce that at least £14.5m of the £58.8m is not pathway related but the accounts state that pathway revenue had increased £11m year on year.  The numbers indicate that the business made a small operating loss on the year (£0.9m) but it is stated that this masks an “underlying profit of £2,907k”.  The business is forecast to “generate positive EBITDA” during the financial year to August 2023.  

Without having CEG’s accounts for 2022 it is not possible to know what a comparative performance to August 2022 was but one would anticipate a rebound in pathway business aided by the addition of new partners.  The business is also able to trumpet the addition of Loughborough University, who have been talking with potential pathway operators since at least 2007, as a partner in December 2022.  All in all, it looks as if OIEG would be taking on a larger business with some substantial and complementary assets.   

Caveat Emptor        

CEG is able to tell a strong story on digital developments and a growing portfolio of well ranked partners which might make it a very attractive proposition.  OIEG is an aspirational business which can point to partners that have done very well out of the growth in UK student recruitment with the University of Greenwich being one of the most significant beneficiaries of the growth in the Indian market.  So, what could possibly go wrong…

Anyone looking at the UK government’s turbulent approach to international student recruitment would point to the continuing possibility of changes to visa policy as a Conservative Government prepares the ground for an election in no more than 24 months.  Significant limitations on student family members (other than with PhD students) and constraints on post study work are two of the main ghosts at the feast.  More severe limitations on lower-ranked universities and “poor quality courses” would be particularly damaging to both CEG and OIEG portfolios.

Alongside that is the sense that CEG might see a window of opportunity that means a race to the exit is the most sensible option in a market where several factors could compromise future performance.  Examples include the evident resurgence of Australia as a competitor after several years of weakness, as well as the reality that Canada remains strong and the US seems to be concentrating on visa turnaround times in major growth markets.  All that is before the revitalisation of China as an international student recruiter with eyes on Africa and India, which seems an inevitable consequence of its borders reopening after COVID.

Those who have been involved in mergers and acquisitions will also recognise the substantial risks involved in trying to merge business cultures, operational activities and brands.  For pathway operators, even as they become increasingly involved in direct recruitment, there is the added challenge of a sales team trying to cope with a plethora of university brands in their bag and not doing justice to any of them.  Smart universities will also have the potential for amendments to contracts if ownership changes and could choose to negotiate hard on revised targets and penalties for failure.

What seems likely is that consolidation will come sooner rather than later as some operators and investors head for the exit doors while the UK environment looks acceptable. The possibility of aggregators, online delivery and post study employment options coming into the mix are likely to make for an interesting year. Interesting times.

NOTES

  1. This count includes seven OIEG partners and the eight listed in CEG’s ONCAMPUS brand.
  2. This is likely to be contested territory but I have attempted to review those relationships which are on campus, joint ventures, and have a pathway element. Authoritative corrections are welcome.
  3. The ultimate controlling partner is Bridgepoint Euro IV Fund managed by Bridgepoint Advisers Ltd.  The interest was purchased in April 2013 for a reported £185m.  In July 2019 reports indicated that Bridgepoint had sold the CATS Colleges division of CEG to Bright Scholar for a transaction value of £150m.
  4. The ultimate controlling party is THI Holdings GmbH which acquired a majority stake in March 2021 in a deal which saw OIEG’s schools division sold to Nord Anglia Education.    

Image by Pete Linforth from Pixabay 

Reelin’ In the Years

Following yesterday’s blog it was helpful to see the HESA summary data for 2021/22 enrollments appearing.  While this does not give a detailed analysis of recruitment by source country for each institution it provides the data to demonstrate that a number of non-Russell Group universities have been outperforming their, supposedly, illustrious competitors in international student recruitment for the past two years of published figures.  The outperformance is on both a percentage growth and an absolute volume growth.

It seems a reasonable bet that this growth will have been driven by students from India and other countries where the importance of post-study work and lower costs of studying are major attractions.  Lean and well managed universities that are used to scrapping for every student and every penny but do not carry expensive infrastructure costs, top ranked (and paid) professors, or any illusions about rankings being a measure of attractiveness are probably doing very well.        

What’s Another Year1

HESA data shows that the year 2021/22 saw the universities of Greenwich, Teeside and Hertfordshire top this list of 19 institutions for percentage growth in international enrollments year on year.  The universities of Liverpool and Newcastle saw a decline in their enrollments.  Given the success of Northumbria University (situated less than a mile from Newcastle University) and Teesside University it seems misguided to suggest, as the Times Higher Education has, that geography is a significant factor in this recruitment performance.

Note:  Source HESA (non-Russell Group shown in red)

Golden Years2

Looking over a longer time span it can be seen that the difference in performance is even more stark.  Over a two year period the universities of Ulster, Teesside, Greenwich and Hertfordshire have more than doubled their enrollment of international students.  The Russell Group’s University of Southampton performance over this two year period less exciting than its year on year 2020/21 to 2021/22 growth but when HESA data at institution level becomes available it will be interesting to see whether their country recruitment strategy changed. 

Note:  Source HESA (non-Russell Group shown in red)

Percentages can, of course, be misleading and what matters most to tuition fee income is the absolute number of students paying fees – bums on seats in common parlance.  Several Russell Group universities started with significant international enrollments so might be expected to have increased their number of students more rapidly even if the percentage is lower.  However, even by this measure several non-Russell Group universities are outperforming the Russell Group institutions over the past two years.

Note:  Source HESA (non-Russell Group shown in red)

Tomorrow Never Knows3

It is commonly accepted that the often-quoted experiment, where a frog is placed in a pan of water that is slowly heated and is so insensitive to small changes in the external environment that it fails to escape before being boiled, is apocryphal.  The response of some universities to the changing environment suggests that the experiment might be taking place in real time with international student recruitment replacing the water.  Both the University of Liverpool and Newcastle University have done poorly over the past two years but both seem to be ignoring the underlying problem.

In its 2020/21 Financial Statements, the University of Liverpool accounts for its decline in international student fee tuition income by saying that, “overseas student recruitment continues to be affected by the pandemic, and although the impact is reduced in 2021/22, we have not yet seen a return in overseas demand to pre-pandemic levels.”  In and of itself the statement is true for Liverpool but clearly not so for many other universities.  Later in the Statements it is noted that, “there is a particular exposure to international relations with China due to our Joint Venture, XJTLU” which raises obvious questions about a recruitment strategy that has not embraced the growth in students from other markets.

Newcastle University’s Integrated Annual Report makes the point that “..we are heavily dependent on international students to keep the business running” but seems to be living in an alternative reality when it claims “..we have had a successful year with regard to international student recruitment.”  The University trumpets its league tables success for the year but fails to recognize that this is not what is driving the needs and expectations of students in the most rapidly growing markets.  The tired excuse that “ongoing uncertainty caused by the pandemic saw a lower than expected international undergraduate intake” suggests the university is the victim of an uncontrollable situation at a point when Northumbria University, just a stone’s throw away, has added nearly 3,000 international students in just two years.

On the same note, the University of Southampton’s Financial Statements suggest that “strong league table performance is a good indicator of future student recruitment, especially internationally,”. This is unsurprising for an institution that has formed its strategy around moving forward in the league tables but the facts showing desultory performance from well ranked institutions in the Russell Group club don’t exactly support the assertion. Recent research suggests that 72% of GenZ students think the rankings less important than finding a university that gives them the right skills for their future.

It is always good advice to separate cause from correlation and to not be the apocryphal frog. A new twist on an old phrase might be that it is time these universities smelt the coffee and woke up.  There is a new international recruitment dynamic and they need to pay attention. 

Notes:

The headline is from the Steely Dan classic, Reelin’ In The Years, released in 1972, although my argument is that some Russell Group universities are reeling in terms of response to market changes than fishing effectively. For those interested in such things, the Wikipedia article on the band appears to avoid exploring the origin of the band’s name.

  1. What’s Another Year is the Irish Eurovision song contest winner from 1980 when it was sung by Johnny Logan. Johnny Logan is the only performer to have won the Eurovision Song Contest twice, in 1980 and 1987. He also composed the winning song, Why Me?, in 1992.
  2. Golden Years is from David Bowie’s Station to Station album released in 1975.
  3. Tomorrow Never Knows is from The Beatles’ Revolver album released in 1966. The song title apparently inspired the title of the 1997 James Bond film Tomorrow Never Dies (which itself is supposed to be typo from the original idea “tomorrow never lies”. 

Sign o’ the Times

For a news outlet that claims to have a mission to be “..the definitive source of data, insight and expertise on higher education worldwide” the Times Higher Education sometimes seems woefully short on understanding of the realities of international student recruitment.  There is also an unhealthy focus on Russell Group universities which suggests more about the THE’s obsession with rankings, brands and research than any enlightened engagement with the broader sector.  A recent example is its article “Overseas student recruitment windfall for leading UK universities” (January 18, 2022).

For those outside the THE paywall, the piece concentrates on some Russell Group universities seeing international student fee income rising significantly between 2020-21 and 2021-22.  There is a suggestion that those in London and the south of England have done particularly well but that enrolments are “either flat or slightly down at some northern institutions, including…Liverpool, Newcastle and Sheffield.”  As well as perpetuating the myth that the Russell Group are either all or the only leading universities in the UK this misses a much more interesting story about the way that changing international markets are altering the financial and recruitment dynamics of the sector.

What If becomes the Hot Thing2

As far back as January 2020 my blog predicted that “..the incoming surge of Indian students might bring a new dynamic to the market” and that “the return of post-study work visas has disrupted enrolment patterns and some lower-ranked universities may have the most cause to be grateful.”  In March 2021 I presented data showing that, “..the distribution of Indian students by type of institution has proved to be significantly different to that of Chinese students” and gave an example as to why geographical location was not the driving factor.  Then in January 2022, I reinforced the findings and made the point that “price points and graduate outcomes could become far more powerful signals than whether the THE, QS and AWUR algorithms choose to favour the rich, old and elitist.”

The impact on increases in student fee income is very clear.  Year on year, percentage rises in international fees (excluding EU students) actually show that the Russell Group is underperforming many other universities.  It is equally clear that location is not the main driver of performance.

The table below shows the 2018/19 to 2020/21 change in international enrollments from China and India across 8 Russell Group universities and 8 non-Russell Group universities (including low tariff institutions).  This is shown alongside the year-on-year change in international fee income (excluding EU) from 2020-21 to 2021-22.  Several non-Russell Group institutions have seen greater comparative financial growth by increasing student enrollments from India while those in the Russell Group remain reliant on China.

Table – % Change in Year on Year International Fee income 2020/21 and Change in Volume of Chinese and Indian Enrollments from 2018/19 to 2020/21   

 % change in international (exc EU) fee income 2020-21 to 2021-22Change in number (and percentage) of Chinese students 2018/19-2020/21Change in number (and percentage) of Indian students 2018/19-2020/21
Southampton92.1745 (27.5%)50 (27.8%)
Teesside8545 (13.4%)1470 (358.5%)
Hertfordshire76.9-355 (-53.8%)3930 (397%)
Greenwich60.8-285 (-44.5%)1760 (239.5%)
Ulster55.8-85 (-47.2%)3270 (2725%)
Queen Mary47.4600 (40.8%)150 (29.4%)
Kingston44.3110 (24.2%)1635 (302.8%)
Exeter33695 (50.7%)135 (28.7%)
Northumbria29.250 (10.1%)2215 (357.3%)
Leicester26.7-590 (-36.1%)1025 (683.3%)
Central Lancashire22-315 (-44.4%)2365 (375.4%)
Warwick21730 (23.4%)80 (11.2%)
Imperial18.51115 (40.3%)35 (14.3%)
Manchester16.53000 (53.5%)85 (16.2%)
UCL164040 (64.7%)55 (13.6%)
Sheffield0.61550 (32%)545 (187.9%)
Liverpool-14.2-1300 (-23.4%)240 (200%)

Notes:

  1. Non-Russell Group institutions are in bold
  2. Financial information is taken from 2021-22 Financial Statements
  3. Student enrollment data is taken from HESA

Newcastle University is not shown because it does not appear to separate EU and other international student fee income in its financial statements.  However, the enrollment numbers comparison between it and the University of Northumbria (which is less than a mile away) demonstrates that blanket assertions about trouble up north are misguided.  Northumbria’s international enrollments have outpaced Newcastle’s significantly over the past three years with growth from India providing the bulk of the additional numbers.  It is notable that, according to HESA, Newcastle University had fewer Indian students in 2020/21 than in 2018/19.

Source: HESA (this data includes EU students.  In 2020/21 Newcastle had 1,360 and Northumbria 1,450 from the EU)

The substantial gaps in performance on recruitment of students from India does raise a number of tantalising questions about the international student strategy and/or capability of Russell Group universities.  Questions might include:

  • do they ignore academically qualified students from India;
  • do academically qualified students from India reject Russell Group institutions because of issues such as cost of tuition and accommodation;
  • are the number of academically qualified students from India so limited that Russell Group institutions struggle to grow numbers;
  • do Russell Group universities have some form of inherent bias against students from India.

Someone with a sharp eye to the sensibilities of the Home Secretary and the current political mood music might also wonder if the propensity of lower ranked, less costly and lower tariff universities to attract students from India will be seen as evidence that they are focused more on fee income than the “brightest and the best.”

Around the World in a Day3

The time lag in HESA figures means we will have to wait for some insights into whether Russell Group universities significantly changed their approach towards India in time for enrollments in 2021/22.  Without such a switch some would seem to be relying on a resurgence of students from China to maintain numbers and financial performance.  It seems likely, however, that their fee structure and overall costs might make it difficult to switch attention to price-conscious source markets.

While watching this space to see how things develop, one would hope that the THE starts to reflect that there is a world outside WC1, London, the south of England and the league tables.  For many students, issues like cost, employability, post study work and routes to immigration are at least as important in decision making as the SDGs, rankings and research capability.  With their fingers and a computer they can walk around the world in a day to assess their options and are capable of great flexibility in changing country, institution and course of study if it suits their needs.

Notes

Headline and sub-headings courtesy of the much-missed Prince.

  1. Sign o’ the Times was the title track of a studio double album released in 1987.  One of my guilty pleasures is the Starfish and Coffee track which Prince co-wrote with his then-girlfriend Susannah Melvoin.  Cynthia Rose is a real person and apparently what she really told her teacher she had in her lunch box was “starfish and pee pee”.
  2. What If is a cover version of a song written by Nichole Nordeman that appeared on her album Brave in 2005.  Prince recorded his version with 3rdEyeGirl in 2013.   Hot Thing appears on the Sign o’ the Times album and was recorded in 1986.
  3. Around the World In a Day was the title track from the seventh studio album from Prince which featured the memorable Raspberry Beret that provided the name for UK band the Lightning   Seeds through a misheard lyric.   Ian Broudie, who formed the band, thought the line “thunder drowns out what the lightning sees” was “thunder drowns out the lightning seeds.”

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay 

Let’s Do the Time Warp…Again*

Back in September 2021, pre-pandemic and five Tory Education ministers** ago, a blog shortly after the restoration of post-study work visas reflected how this might be a factor in the party’s continuing tensions around immigration .  Suella Braverman’s speech to the party conference this week highlighted that the issue still exists and suggest a fault line through which university hopes for international student recruitment could fall.  It is not surprising that vested interests in higher education, who have been licking their lips at enrollment growth, have responded so vigorously.

With a bit of a mind flip, You’re into the time slip

Among the first in line for the defence was ApplyBoard Advisory Board Chairman, Jo Johnson, who also leads the company’s UK Advisory Board and its worthies in helping build the company’s business in the UK.   He was interestingly narrow in his choice of words and vaunted the importance of international students “..if we want to be a science superpower.”  It’s an echo of the original announcement from Priti Patel, in September 2019, which said the new Graduate Route ‘will mean talented international students, whether in science and maths or technology and engineering, can study in the UK…’

The suspicious might think that this continues to lay the groundwork for a downgrading of the humanities or some form of quota system that favours the sciences above humanities when it comes to dishing out visas.  Almost inevitably that would play to the interests of the established hierarchy of universities with their lion’s share of science funding and students.  Those who don’t think these hierarchies have any place in Government policy, or that Ministers won’t allow league tables to distort thinking, would do well to remember that the High Potential Individual visa is currently restricted to graduates of 37 universities who have successfully navigated, manipulated or, for some, misrepresented their way into two of three nominated global rankings.

It’s just a jump to the left, And then a step to the right

Back in May 2022 when the High Potential Individual visa was launched, then Chancellor Rishi Sunak (remember him) was proud it helped “to create one of the world’s most attractive visa regimes for entrepreneurs and highly skilled people.”  This seems to have been a little too much of an open door for some and there are reports of the Home Office beginning a review of the number of dependants accompanying international students studying in the UK.  The numbers tell their own story with study visas up 71% from 2019 to 2022 while dependants have gone up over five times.

Perhaps helpfully, if they are looking for beneficial treatment in the future, the Russell Group institutions may be able to argue that it is universities outside their club that are driving the change.  As noted in a February 2022 blog the RG universities were growing numbers from China while other universities were taking the opportunities afforded by growth from India and Nigeria as source markets.  This may be important in formulating Home Office thinking because the Telegraph reported that “34,000 Nigerian students accounted for 31,898 dependants while the 93,100 Indian students accounted for 24,916.”

 The siren voices on the right are unlikely to let the issue rest.  Alp Mehmet, chairman of Migration Watch UK, said: “It has been clear for years that a significant number of those coming to study and their dependants use it as a route into work and settlement.  It is yet another mode of uncontrolled and uncapped migration, often, feeding the demand for low-skilled and low-paid workers.”  It is a level of angst that seems likely to note that the top non-EU nationalities granted British citizenship in the latest year were Indian (16,720), Pakistani (15,624), and Nigerian (9,445) nationals and that these nationalities accounted for almost a third (31%) of all grants to non-EU nationals in the year ending June 2022.

Not for very much longer, I’ve got to keep control

The clues are all there in Braverman’s conference speech but the key word is control which appears six times in 18 sentences and particularly in terms the mission “to control our borders.”  The economy is to be developed by “..encouraging business to invest in capital and domestic labour. Not relying wholly on low-skilled foreign workers.”  The echo of Mehmet’s words above are probably no accident.

But then we are taken back to Theresa May’s statement of March 2011 where she said, “We had too many people coming here to work and not to study. We had too many foreign graduates staying on in the UK to work in unskilled jobs. And we had too many institutions selling immigration, not education.”  It was the precursor to removal of post study work visas and a moment when international student growth in the UK began to fall rapidly behind that of Australia and Canada.

By January 2013, Prime Minister David Cameron was telling the House of Commons, ‘Frankly, there are lots of people in our country desperate for jobs. We don’t need the brightest and best of students to come here and then do menial jobs.’  The real point was that PSW visas had been introduced in the UK in 2002 when unemployment was around 5% but it then rose rapidly due to the global economic recession.  A big question facing UK higher education now will be what happens in summer 2023 if the UK unemployment rate, particularly among graduates, looks to be going the wrong way at a point when a General Election is no more than 18 months away.   

It is perhaps as well for universities that the traditional measure of graduate employment is aimed at the undergraduate market but it may not be long before attention focuses on the fate of postgraduates entering a tricky job market.  The shift in balance to having India as a major driver of international enrollments has altered the dynamics and it is slightly odd, but hardly unexpected given their record, that the OsF has not caught up with the situation.  With increasing numbers of international student likely to stay and take advantage of post-study work the likelihood of competition in the postgraduate market seems obvious.   

It may seem far-fetched to consider this as a potential problem at a point when the unemployment rate fell to its lowest rate since 1974 just three months ago but the headline hides a more complex picture.  Craig Erlam, a senior market analyst at Oanda, commented, “It’s not often that you see the unemployment rate fall to the lowest in almost 50 years and aren’t overjoyed, but that will certainly be the feeling at the Bank of England right now.”  Unemployment rising to 8% looks unlikely but it is also difficult to find anyone who predicting in December 2021 that average two-year fixed mortgage rates would have moved from 2.43% to 6% in less than a year with every likelihood of going higher.

But it’s the pelvic thrust, That really drives you insane

The sub-heading offers a slightly crude metaphor for the way that competitors in the international student market, particularly Australia, might take the opportunity to build on the UK’s uncertainties, tensions and failure to take advantage of its early opening of borders.  The announcement of new post-study work rights has already swamped the claims of Sunak’s claims of an attractive visa regime and it comes with AUS$36 million to improve visa processing for international students.  It’s the type of coordinated decision making and rhetoric that becomes it much easier to point out the potential problems in the UK.

Canada, which is not without its own problems, has also announced plans to increase the number of international students and foreign workers with extensive work experience for permanent residency in areas where there is a persistent labour shortage. A sub-text is that provinces and territories will have the freedom to modify their immigration streams to suit their own requirements.  That’s just a little more steam in the Canadian engine that has become an international student recruiting freight train.

While hoping for the best and that sense will prevail, it is difficult not to think that the current Government is disjointed, capable of extreme views and likely to pander to populist thinking as an election nears.  It has shown little regard for the concerns of universities or the predicament they might face if international students decline and the institutions have willingly driven recruitment at a pace which has brought new stresses on the system.  None of it bodes well for the future and particularly not if the predictions of a long and deep recession come true.   

NOTES

* Headline and sub-headings from Time Warp by Richard O’Brien/Richard Hartley, which featured in the 1973 rock musical The Rocky Horror Show, its 1975 film adaptation The Rocky Horror Picture Show, and a 2016 TV production.  If you haven’t done it you really should.

**Gavin Williamson (to 15 September 2021), Nadhimm Zahawi (to 5 July, 2022), Michelle Donelan (to 7 July, 2022), James Cleverly (to 6 September, 2022), Kit Malthouse (current but the record might suggest not by the time you read this…)

Image by annca from Pixabay 

Look Into UAC, UEA, UK, USA, USF etc

Back in May the roundabout of changes at INTO University Partnerships (INTO) was in full motion.  My blog suggested a go to market strategy based around University Access Centers and an emerging sales structure reflecting the differing fortunes of Russell Group partners and other universities in the UK.  Particularly intriguing was the decline of the University of East Anglia joint venture (INTO UEA) and the rise of Queen’s University Belfast.

Regular readers will has seen that INTO UEA then failed to file its 2020/21 Annual Report by the due date but it is now possible to confirm the extent of the continuing decline in enrollments.  The UAC strategy was duly launched, a new partner in the US gives some further sense of a possible direction and some familiar faces have returned while the top team continues to change.  A summary is timely.

Changing UK Enrollment Dynamics

For some time now it has become clear that changes in international student enrollment for the UK is making for unusual turbulence and may not be good news for pathway operators.  This year’s UCAS data shows that overall international acceptances at undergraduate level are down to their lowest level since 2015 (excluding the pandemic affected 2020) due to continuing declines in EU students.  As importantly for pathway operators the shift to Indian postgraduates as a dominant, growing market brings very different challenges after years of reliance on China.

With the inclusion of the confirmed INTO UEA numbers the overall picture for INTO’s UK operations becomes clear.  While the Russell Group aligned operations had a steeper year on year fall in the most recent, pandemic affected, year the longer-term trend was positive.  Non-Russell group operations appear to be struggling and in decline.

Note: Wholly owned subsidiary INTO Manchester is primarily aligned with the University of Manchester and is included in the Russell Group enrollments.  INTO World Education Centre is a “choice” option and included in the Non-Russell Group enrollments.

The new figures also show that INTO UEA, the first joint venture opened, saw its enrollments fall below those of INTO Queen’s for the first time.  The recently posted Annual Report confirms that this decline came with an operating loss of £4.66m.  Note 18 of the Report indicates that fees charged by INTO and UEA to the joint venture have also been “renegotiated” to “reduce the LLP’s cost base.”

The joint-venture’s problems have had an impact on UEA’s overall international student enrollment and a significant decline in international fee income.  For now, the partnership continues but it will be worth keeping a close eye on it over the coming year.  The direction of travel and hopes for recovery seem clear from the Annual Report with talk of “the expansion of year one pathways and Integrated Degrees” as the focus for the future. 

Meanwhile, Back in the USA

INTO’s declining joint venture portfolio in the US has been explored at length and the current court case with the University of South Florida will play out over time.  Court documents show that an “Emergency Motion for a Temporary Injunction to maintain the status quo” on 31 August was declined which is presumably what led to the joint venture being removed as a recruitment option.  Filings indicate the next steps are that “INTO USF LP and INTO USF, Inc. shall file their Amended Complaint on or before September 20, 2022, and USF Financing Corporation and The Board of Trustees of the University of South Florida shall respond to the Amended Complaint within twenty (20) days thereafter.”

Meanwhile, the seemingly inevitable drive for direct recruitment partners may be coming with the announcement of an agreement to recruit postgraduate students for University of Massachusetts, Amherst from Fall 2023.  What is difficult to understand about INTO’s recruitment approach is that their student facing INTO Study website currently only features two direct recruitment partners (Colorado State University and Arizona State University) while the corporate site features nine US “recruitment partnerships”.  Shorelight’s site seems far more in keeping with the smooth approach that has been increasingly popularized by the aggregators and demonstrates how far INTO has to go if the intention is to have a significant direct recruitment network of partners in the US.

If the Face Fits

INTO’s web site constraints may also mean that updating new appointments and departures is not a priority but some of the comings and goings are interesting. 

Particularly relevant to the next stage of US development may be the return of ex-North America MD/CEO David Stremba as Senior Vice President, Business Development.  He was pivotal to the early growth of INTO in the US and has spent some time with both Shorelight and Navitas in recent years, so should have a good sense of the competitor landscape.  The US structure is also developing with long-term player Yasmin Sefer becoming Senior VP, Partnerships (Private) alongside the Senior VP, Partnerships (Public), Steven Richman.

The INTO corporate website also doesn’t reflect the recent departure of a Group COO and US Executive VP or a strongly rumoured, significant change at senior finance level.  All that aside, INTO seems to have decided the team and structure that it thinks can move it forward and there appear to be an ample number of “senior” titles for a business with a reported adjusted turnover of £119.3m in 2021.   Time for action.

Image by Peggy und Marco Lachmann-Anke from Pixabay 

Bread, Circuses and Clearing

Note: A data transposition error meant that a small number of Day 4 details in this blog required amendment. Deleted text is shown with a strikethrough. The changes are marginal and do not change the conclusions drawn. Amendments were made on 23 August.

Education and political commentators in the UK must salivate as they mark the A-level results date in their diary.  It’s the gift that keeps on giving as thrilled and distraught students weep real tears of joy or despair at three grade letters which will determine their immediate future.  The system places all the power in the hands of the universities as they pick and choose who to admit from the 30% or more whose predicted grades were inflated.

With that grumble about a system which is weighted heavily against students out of the way it’s time to get down to making some observations about what clearing has told us so far about international students.  It’s still early in the process and there is time for things to change but the first few days are usually telling.  The figures on day one of clearing (UCAS call it JCQ Results Day) and little change by day 4 give a sense of how the world is turning. 

The focus here is international students and that brings an immediate acknowledgement that undergraduate study is probably not where the real action lies.  However, the yearly grind of replacing PGT students is a remorseless treadmill and every university business manager should be hungry for the stability of a three year fee-paying student.  Pathway operators have also historically built their business around students who want to be undergraduates and need to improve their language skills before entering a full degree.

No Safe European Home

The near catastrophic decline in European undergraduate enrollments continues but it looks worse than the headline numbers.  Since 2019 the number of applications has fallen 54% (27,150) but on day one the number of acceptances was down 67% over the same timescale.  The slow growth in the number of acceptances suggests that there is simply not the quality of student in the pool or that they hoped to be able to slip into a highly ranked university and are not interested in trading down.

Those touting the notion that it was not financially an issue if European numbers fell steeply because they would be paying more in fees should re-evaluate their position.  In 2019 the 26,200 European students accepted on day one were worth £727m over three years at £9,250 a year.  In 2022 the 8,620 accepted on day one are worth £414m over three years at an average of, say, £16,000 a year.

Of course, some higher ranked universities will be able to charge more but it would need an average yearly undergraduate fee of £28,000 to be able to make up the difference.  It is difficult to see that this is realistic, so a net loss seems baked into the situation.  The number of acceptances is also on a downward trend year on year so getting Brexit done probably has long term consequences for higher education enrollments.

The impact on pathway operators may also have been something of a blow because many European students, particularly from less economically strong countries, needed language support.  This may be one factor behind the growing popularity of low-cost countries in attracting international students within Europe.

China In Your Hand

UK university appetite for students from China remains undimmed and it would be reasonable to lay a small bet that the Russell Group is continuing to draw in as many as possible.  What is interesting about this year is the sharp hike in the percentage of Chinese applicants who were accepted as of day one. The 42% accepted was still at that level had risen to 44.6% on day 4 of Clearing and is significantly higher than anything in the past decade (highest previous was 37.9 42.1% acceptances on day 4).

A couple of thoughts on the reasons come to mind.  It is possible that there has been a surge of quality candidates because the number of Chinese students going to the US appears to be continuing to falter.  It is also possible that pathways in the UK with international year one options are growing their degree offerings and able to provide a persuasive option to candidates at 5.5 IELTS. HESA data shows, for example, that Study Group had 1,345 Chinese undergraduate students in 2020/21.  

As of day 4 of clearing there will be some 70.9% (c5,800 5,940) more Chinese undergraduates starting UG courses in the UK in 2022 than in 2019.  

Career Opportunities

Much has been made of the ways the introduction of post-study work visas have changed the fortunes of UK universities enrolling international students.  Two key countries with rapidly growing applications were India and Nigeria.  While the bulk of candidates will have been in PGT applications both countries have seen strong UG application growth since 2019 of 217% and 91% respectively. 

There may have been high hopes pinned on these turning into enrollments but the acceptances picture tells a quite different story.  Nigeria languished at an acceptance rate of 22.7% on day one – an all time low for the past decade.  At an acceptance rate of 34.1% Indian students were marginally better than last year but at a lower level than anything else since 2013.

It would be reasonable to say that the number of accepted Nigerian students on day one has risen 106.9% since 2019.  But an extra 3,620 applicants had only yielded 620 acceptances (17%) at that point and on the same basis an extra 5,670 Indian applications brought 1,620 students (28.6%).  This might suggest why some university admissions colleagues are concerned at the propensity of aggregator platforms to attract sub-optimal candidates when, by contrast, a growth of 11,640 Chinese applicants returned 5,690 students (48.9%).

Another market touted for growth now and in the future is Pakistan, where an additional 370 applicants since 2019 saw a decline of 20 students accepted as of day one.  On a longer time scale, 2017 saw 2000 applicants from Pakistan with a day one acceptance of 540 while 2022 saw 2660 applicants with a day one acceptance of…..540.  The search for new markets and the ease of multiple application through technology may make this a recurring trend and particularly so as agents and applicants look more widely for countries with the most benevolent post-study work options.   

Minding Your P and Us

As noted, the UG trends are only part of the story and most of the excitement and expectation is in the PGT market.  If the growth in applications from India and Nigeria has been as significant as suggested by study visa data there will have been a tremendous burden on university admissions offices.  The UG picture may suggest that the vagaries of multiple applications, quality of candidates and Home Office scrutiny will result in significant inefficiency in the system for the foreseeable future.

Image by Arek Socha from Pixabay     

Love Island UK or Total Wipeout for International Students

The chaos around the resignation of the UK Prime Minister saw the country have three Secretary of State for Education in as many days.  While there is something deliciously ironical about someone called Cleverly holding the ball when the music stops (sic) it was less edifying to see the Under-Secretary for Education demoted to Minister of Skills, Further and Higher Education for giving the middle finger to the gathered press pack.  May be the first time that higher actually means lower but as someone recently said, “them’s the breaks.”

It leaves higher education in the hands of James Cleverly who might find himself replaced under a new Prime Minister in September.  He does not appear to have any previous experience of an education portfolio.  He is joined by Andrea Jenkyns, who threw the hand gesture, because “I’m only human” but who also appears to have no links with education administration.

Given their inexperience they may be amenable to suggestion from outside sources and they will certainly face commercial interests who have established an inside track to Government and a powerful lobbying position.  The voices they listen to could determine whether the UK becomes a beacon for international students or a place where hopes are crushed by economic and political considerations.  It’s unclear who will ensure students don’t become filling in a sandwich between reduced public spending and private ambition to monetize global mobility.    

When Love Comes to Town

Past experience would suggest that the voice of Lord Jo Johnson, who is usually heralded as “former universities Minister” or Senior Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School rather than his more commercial position as Chairman of ApplyBoard International, will be among the loudest. If his views carry weight there are several indicators as to the direction of travel for international students coming to the UK. His demands in mid-2020, shortly after taking the ApplyBoard post, were a four-year post-study work visa, “a strategic push to rebalance student flows by doubling those from India”, and “cutting back the time-consuming and offputting red tape affecting overseas students.”

He is joined on ApplyBoard’s UK Advisory Board by the UK’s International Education Champion, Professor Sir Steve Smith, the Director of the Higher Education Policy Institute, Nick Hillman and HEPI Trustee, Mary Curnock-Cook.  With all that industry insight and connection the outcomes could help the Board achieve its stated aim to “guide and support ApplyBoard’s expansion within the United Kingdom.” It certainly begins to feel as if some other stars may be aligning.

UK universities have already been revelling in a benign recruitment environment since the introduction of a more relaxed post-study work regime in 2021.  It helped reach the Government’s ludicrously low target of 600,000 international students a decade early but for some that is not enough.  Vivienne Stern, the current director of Universities UK International and soon to be chief executive of Universities UK, has said universities want a review to ensure the UK had a “competitive post-study work offer” and there are other interesting synergies emerging.

Stern, a colleague of Smith’s on the UK Government’s Education Sector Advisory Group, has also started to bang the drum about the risks for universities of any deterioration of relationships with China.    Added to that is the voice of Nick Hillman who said, of growing Chinese numbers, “…it does put our universities at serious risk of shifting geopolitics.” These assertions broadly mirror Johnson’s March 2021 statements about “poorly understood” risks of increasingly close collaboration between UK universities and China and his November 2021 suggestion that the financial risks were such that the government should consider making English universities over-reliant on Chinese student fees take out insurance policies.

Some might argue that the echo chamber of views warning about potential catastrophe are overstated.  It seems entirely possible recruitment from China will grow post-pandemic because it is driven by strong country-based agents and local connections where the growth of aggregator and remote technology led approaches has been more of a struggle than in markets such as India.  As interesting is whether the UK can go head to head with Canada for the Indian market if it means underpinning its strategy with longer-term post study visas and the Holy Grail of simple routes to citizenship, which some research suggests may be the aim of 75% of Indian students.       

Another thing to watch out for might be the way that the UK International Education Strategy’s aim of, “Enhancing….the student application process for international students”, is met.  In 2021, Johnson was promoting technology to verify incoming students’ documents, check English language skills and review their finances which sounded like a proposal to adopt a UK version of ApplyProof – a “standalone platform powered by ApplyBoard“.2  What might the odds be on a public-private partnership bringing this technology to the UK?

Total Eclipse of the Heart

On the other hand the post-pandemic world looks to be moving increasingly towards a relatively hard economic landing and there are reasons to be wary of the UK’s position.  One symbol is the, perhaps hyperbolic, sentiment that the British pound is taking on the characteristics of an ‘emerging market’ currency.  Already abandoned by European workers there is some evidence that agricultural workers from around the world will be in high demand but if you are a graduate with more interest in picking stocks than strawberries the post-study work environment in the UK could be a concern.

Information on international student post-study outcomes has been notoriously hard to come by and HESA has been roundly criticised for stepping back from Government demands for more and better quality data.  AGCAS has tried to step into the breach and offers the most recent insights which broadly tell us that one in three international students have not found employment of any kind.  The amount of effort needed to find a job is suggested by the finding that 42% of students employed applied for over 50 jobs.

Views on the Graduate Route suggest that graduates feel some employers have “poor knowledge of post-study work visas”, others “openly refused to accept applications from international graduates” and that the cost of the Route was a barrier.  On top of this Office for Students research suggests that “less than half of students at some English universities can expect to find graduate level jobs or further study shortly after graduation.”

Even more troubling are the recent revelations that student visas to UK universities may be providing cover for human trafficking.  If abuses can happen when a university is meant to be aware of the way the student is engaging with their course, this may be the tip of the iceberg of exploitation under post-study work visas.  As the number of students staying in country grows the potential for this to become a big issue seems clear.

While things may turn out right, a great deal will hinge on the economic prosperity of the UK.  As survivors of the global recession of 2007 to 2009 will recall there was significant growth in unemployment among young people.  It was one factor that may have contributed to the decision in 2011 to remove post study work rights for international students.

Announcing the decision in March 2011 then Home Secretary Theresa May said, “We had too many people coming here to work and not to study. We had too many foreign graduates staying on in the UK to work in unskilled jobs. And we had too many institutions selling immigration, not education.”  If the number of students deciding to stay and work goes up at a time when the UK is struggling with recession and unemployment it is difficult to see why a future Government would not make a similar decision.  Total wipeout of post-study work visas is only ever a political step away. 

NOTES

  1. Love Island is a popular but controversial reality TV show in the UK, involving strangers meeting up and being obliged to pair up or be ejected from the competition.  Total Wipeout ran from 2009-12 and involved competitors taking on an obstacle course and other challenges until the one who is fastest around the Wipeout Zone course wins.  Both have similarities with the challenges facing international students.    
  2. It is unclear to me what “standalone” means. ApplyBoard and ApplyProof share the same logo colorways, have headquarters in the same building, and the head of ApplyProof is a standing member of ApplyBoard’s information governance committee.  The Head of ApplyProof’s LinkedIn profile places the ApplyProof role under his ApplyBoard experience and its Director of Engineering’s profile suggests he also works for Apply Board.
  3. Colleagues of a certain age will recognize that the sub-headings are taken directly from 1980s songs by U2 (When Love Comes to Town) and Bonnie Tyler (Total Eclipse of the Heart). Guilty pleasures:)  

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

More unity, less inaction needed from UK higher education

By Alan Preece  published in University World News on 18 March 2022

United Kingdom higher education responses to the Russian invasion of Ukraine reflect the inability of the community to respond collectively, promptly or effectively to issues of importance. Umbrella groups and individual institutions stalled and prevaricated as they lagged behind other countries in responding to demands for concerted action.

It may have been a failure of planning, but other recent sector-wide issues suggest it may be a systemic point of failure in a sector where self-regulation and self-interest encourage inaction and obfuscation.

Fail to plan, plan to fail

The invasion started on 24 February, but the first statement by Universities UK was not until 28 February, which was an age given the potential to plan ahead and consider how to respond.

Even slower was the Russell Group, which did not manage a public response until 7 March, after the media had featured their lack of even the most basic of statements. Two weeks after the invasion there was still no statement on the Russell Group website.

By contrast, on the day after the invasion, the German Ministry of Education and Research said: “All current and planned activities with Russia are being frozen and subjected to critical review. There will be no new activities until further notice.”

By 4 March, the European Union had “decided to halt cooperation with Russian entities in research, science and innovation”, which included halting payments under existing contracts as well as making no new agreements. The Netherlands, Slovenia, Denmark and Lithuania had all reached the same position.

Universities UK was obliged to update its position when the Russian Union of Rectors (RUR) issued a statement on 4 March supporting “the Russian army and President Vladimir Putin’s decision to take military action in Ukraine”.

The response was to suspend a memorandum of understanding between Universities UK and the RUR, which coincided with the decision of the European University Association (of which Universities UK is a member) to suspend membership of 12 Russian university signatories. The sense of being bounced into defensive action rather than anticipating and leading continued to prevail.

Waiting is the hardest part

Perhaps UK higher education took its slow-walk lead from the glacial response of elements of the UK government.

On 27 February George Freeman MP, parliamentary under-secretary of state for science, research and innovation, tweeted that he had instigated a “rapid … review of all Russian beneficiaries (whether academic collaborators, companies or directors) of UK science, research, technology and innovation funding”.

By 7 March UK Research and Innovation was “pausing all payments to grants with potential Russian partners”, but saying, “we await further [British] government advice”.

More than two weeks later neither Freeman, UK Research and Innovation, nor the Department for Business Energy and Industrial Strategy had deigned to update their websites on the progress of the “rapid” review or its consequences.

Secretary of State for Education Nadhim Zahawi appears to have been sidelined from this issue, but recently promised to “crack down hard” on academics referred to by party colleague Robert Halfon MP as “useful idiots” for Putin. This looks like pandering to media attention rather than taking meaningful decisions about whether UK university links with Russian institutions are appropriate.

This may be another factor behind the delays by some UK universities in taking decisive action. Professor Colin Riordan, vice-chancellor of Cardiff University, a member of the Russell Group, told The Guardian on 4 March that “if the government were to tell his university to cut ties with Russia, it would do so because of the ‘bigger things at stake’.”

Professor Steve West, the president of the vice-chancellors’ group Universities UK, said: “I think we have to expect science sanctions … what is happening is a challenge on democracy and the safety and stability of the free world.”

At face value we appear to have institutions that are proud to promote their status as self-governing and autonomous, delaying taking decisive action until the government tells them what to do. Even when they acknowledge the threat to “the safety and stability of the free world” and the “bigger things at stake”, they seem unable to make a decision.

Governments in other countries may have recognised the capacity of universities to prevaricate and been wise to simply take the decision out of their hands.

At the individual university level, a number of institutions have demonstrated it is entirely possible to act promptly and with vigour. On 28 February the University of Warwick was reviewing all Russian links with a view to “terminating contracts where possible”. As early as 4 March the universities of Aberdeen, St Andrews and Dundee confirmed they had already cut ties with Russia and Edinburgh University was reviewing its investment stake in Sberbank.

By contrast, some universities have made no public statement, even of support for Ukraine, or have relied on the backstop position provided by Universities UK.

Keele University says: “We are working closely with other institutions in the UK higher education sector to coordinate our response.” This implies a joined-up response that is not evident in reality and exposes the tensions inherent in the sector.

A pattern of behaviour

For those who think this failure to unify is only a feature of a crisis, it is worth considering two other recent and important issues.

On 16 January 2022, six universities signed a pledge agreeing that victims of sexual harassment in universities should no longer be silenced by non-disclosure agreements (NDAs). It was wholeheartedly supported by Higher Education Minister Michelle Donelan, the National Union of Students and Universities UK, who claim to be the “collective voice” of 140 universities.

By 16 March, two months later, only 42 universities had signed the pledge which is held on the Can’t Buy My Silence website. It is difficult to think of anything simpler than committing to collective action on an issue of this type. Perhaps the reasons lie in the self-interest of a sector where a BBC News investigation in 2020 found nearly a third of universities had used NDAs for student grievances in a four-year period.

Back in 2020 there was pressure to stop the use of ‘conditional unconditional’ offers, with the higher education minister, the Office for Students and the National Union of Students agreeing they put students under undue pressure.

The practice was banned by the Office for Students from July 2020 to September 2021 and, following a Universities UK review, a new Fair Admissions Code of Practice was launched in March 2022. Despite the fanfare, the code is not compulsory and at the present time there is no indication on the websites of either Universities UK or co-developers GuildHE of who has signed up.

As recently as February 2022, the higher education minister had written to the University of Portsmouth, which continues to defend the use of such offers.

It is difficult to see that a code of conduct demonstrating the “higher education sector’s commitment to fair and transparent admissions practices” should be a matter of debate or contention. However, some in the sector stand by their option to secure competitive or other advantages by resisting uniform regulation or action in the interests of students.

Suspending links with universities significantly controlled by the Russian government, eradicating NDAs that silence victims of sexual harassment, and not agreeing to stop using conditional unconditional offers are obviously quite different examples. However, it is difficult to resist the argument that, even under situations where the free world’s “safety and stability” is at stake, the UK higher education sector needs to be told what to do.

It would seem better if they worked out how to act as a collective before they find patience wearing thin and face a more direct approach to their decision-making.

Alan Preece is an expert in global education, business transformation and operational management and runs the blogging site View from a Bridge.