We are just a few days from the annual Open Doors announcement and it will be accompanied by the Fall 2024 snapshot. But there is some merit in getting underneath the hood of individual institutions to see what the trends might be and think about what might happen next. Focusing on four of the INTO University Partners “comprehensive partnerships” where universities give reasonable levels of Fall 2024 enrollment detail also gives a sense of how traditional pathway might be doing.
It’s a mixed bag with Oregon State University (OSU) still becalmed, St Louis University (SLU) appearing to be over-exuberant in its growth ambitions, the University of Alabama Birmingham (UAB) making steady progress and George Mason University (GMU) stalling. A top-level review of the three public universities suggests that UAB wins on value1 but consideration of their website and positioning suggests that they have integrated thinking about and appealing to international students in a more fundamental way than some competitors2. As more US universities become active in pursuit of international students this holistic approach is likely to be increasingly important.
There does not appear to be any sign of a revival in the number of students coming from China, either in direct enrollment or through pathways. The situation with visa refusals and delays for Indian students has been commented on in several media and appears to be having a dampening effect. The US need for STEM students continues and it will be interesting to see whether the incoming President’s increased engagement with the “tech bros” gives momentum and follow through on his Green Card promise.
The reality is that the underlying dynamics of international recruitment have changed as the main sending countries have shifted. Promises of post-study work opportunities would be a significant enhancement to the traditional lure of the US and students will often overlook the internal politics of a country if getting a visa and a job is straightforward. It is arguable that even a “frontal attack” on university freedoms is unlikely to deter the majority of students seeking a career in the US.
Oregon State University
The first INTO partner in the USA, Oregon State University made no progress on rebuilding its international student numbers in Fall 2024. Enrollments are still below 2012 level and undergraduate numbers are continuing to drift down from a peak in 2017. Year on year the number of Chinese enrollments has fallen another 23% (to 262), students from India are down 4% (to 375) and the only bright spot is students from Taiwan up 27% (to 223).
Source: OSU Office of Institutional Research
The INTO Oregon State University joint venture continues to struggle and is down 63% on its pre-pandemic enrollment. While the Fall enrollment is up by 44 students3 to 301 this remains below the numbers achieved in 2020 and 2021. All this despite the joint venture launching a special “Jump Start” employment program for international students in July 2024 to help drive enrollment.
Source: OSU Office of Institutional Research
St Louis University
As failures in forecasting go St Louis University’s (SLU) well publicized enrollment of only 300 additional international students against a target of 1,300 isn’t quite in the class of Lord Kelvin’s 1895 claim that “heavier than air flying machines are impossible”. But for those now trying to find savings of $20m in the year the resulting shortfall looks pretty painful. It could be a sign that for some US universities the reliance on enrollment from India for growth brings increasing levels of risk.
On the face of it, SLU’s targeted growth must have seemed plausible given that the year before they had increased the numbers enrolled from India by 1,775. Having all your eggs in one basket (with SLU having 76% of its international students from India) is rarely a good idea and the shortfall brings the F1 visa trends into sharp relief. An excellent article in University World News by Ragh Singh suggests that from January to August 2024 there were 39,000 fewer F1 visas issued to Indian students than in the same period for 2023.
Source: St Louis University Office of Institutional Research
The INTO SLU joint venture pathway operation became wholly owned by INTO in August 2021 and its enrollment numbers are not publicly available. As the official language of both Ghana and Nigeria is English it seems unlikely that the modest growth in direct student enrollments from these countries are feeding into the pathway. There is no sign of a revival in enrollments from China.
St Louis University Direct Student Enrollment – Main Countries
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
| India | 72 | 65 | 170 | 664 | 2439 | 2620 |
| China | 309 | 233 | 166 | 108 | 111 | 101 |
| South Korea | 28 | 21 | 25 | 58 | 69 | 74 |
| Nigeria | 19 | 9 | 20 | 40 | 56 | 56 |
| Ghana | 7 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 29 | 46 |
| Saudi Arabia | 64 | 53 | 41 | 40 | 41 | 40 |
Source: St Louis University Office of Institutional Research
University of Alabama Birmingham
The University of Alabama Birmingham (UAB) is another “comprehensive partner” of INTO and looks to be making steady progress on international student recruitment. UAB is probably helped by featuring regularly as being good value for international students as well as featuring well in external measures of quality. In Fall 2022 “just under a third” of international students were from India and it is a reasonable bet that this percentage has increased.
August 2023 saw a strong media item featured on WBRC News which could be a model for universities anywhere in the world trying to emphasis the local economic and cultural value of international students. Shadi Martin, Dean of Graduate School and Chief International Officer makes the point that, “It used to be that we had a lot of students who came from China, that number has shifted. But we are seeing a significant number of students coming from India right now. We have students coming from the Middle East [and] Africa.”
Source: UAB Office of Institutional Effectiveness and Analysis
At the joint venture INTO UAB pathway level the university does not split out nationalities. The pathway appears to have recovered reasonably well from the pandemic with a particularly strong showing in Academic English in Fall 2024. All looks set fair.
Source: UAB Office of Institutional Effectiveness and Analysis
George Mason University
George Mason University (GMU) does not provide a breakdown of its international student enrollment numbers until it publishes its Facts and Figures Yearbook. The best approximation is the Out of State student number of which international students have been a growing proportion. In Fall 2024 the Out of State FTE fell slightly on the previous year which may be an indicator that international enrollment has fallen.
Source: George Mason University Office of Institutional Effectiveness and Planning
The joint venture partnership with INTO had been making a slow recovery after the pandemic but has suffered a setback with a 16% decrease in enrollment year on year. This takes it back to levels last seen at the onset of the pandemic. It’s only 11 students fewer but seems to reflect the picture at the overall university level.
Source: George Mason University Office of Institutional Effectiveness and Planning
NOTES
- It is always difficult to compare like for like in terms of value. Some comparison tools were used to make this assessment but the author accepts that there may be other ways of considering this evaluation.
- This is a personal and qualitative assessment based on several decades of experience recruiting international students for universities.
- This number is based on the year-on-year reporting. There appears to be an unexplained adjustment to 2023 numbers in the 2024 publication.