Tag: intled

Brass in Yocket for Aggregator Founders*

Having recently delved into ApplyBoard and Study Portals it was Yocket’s turn to go under the computer mouse.  Reportedly, started in 2012 with $136USD (less than £100GBP) the company claimed over $1m revenue in 2020 and a plan to get to over $10m in three years.  Various internet searches have not found references to other external funding in support of the company, so it looks like the founders are backing themselves. 

Described as a ‘one stop study abroad solution’ Yocket focuses on candidates from India and suggests it has registered more than 400,000 since 2015. The company name is a word play on the company being a ‘rocket’ for students to meet their aspiration.  It claims to have ‘tied-up’ with over 100 universities in the UK, US, Canada and Australia although the nature of the engagement and the split by country are not transparent.  Yocket is part of Avocation Education Services Private Limited (Avocation) which also owns Stupidsid** which was also started by the founders.

Yocket’s model would appear to be focused on being a ‘student aggregator’ making money by selling added value services rather than an ‘agent aggregator’ trying to attract recruitment agents. There is a clear attempt to build a revenue stream from universities but this appears to have had limited success with only 42 in the ‘Apply through Yocket’ list and limited institutional activity on the site. Before universities go rushing in to fill that void they may want to consider some features of the site and what their brand will be associated with.

Data Management and Use     

One of the emerging concerns about aggregator sites is their use of data and Yocket’s site demands an email as the price of doing any search and engages the user in giving more personal details at every opportunity.  An email, phone number and other details allows you to set up an account and “By creating an account you agree to Yocket’s Terms of use and Privacy policy.  Attempts to click on the links to read these take the user on a circular route back to the initial sign on page which may be a glitch but is unhelpful. 

However, the Privacy Policy is available through an internet search and is the same as that of Avocation in giving broad opportunities for the use of data, such as making it available to ‘third party service providers’ as well as to advertisers including financial services.  It notes that ‘Avocation Educational Services Private Limited’ reserves the right to update, change or modify this policy at any time.’  The Terms of Use can also be found and note that, “It cannot be guaranteed that the material, information, links, and content presented on and by this website is comprehensive, complete, accurate, sufficient, timely, or up to date for any particular purpose or use.” 

Given that students going to the site are expecting accurate and comprehensive information about any country that they hope to study in this seems problematic.  The information provides the basis for the potential student spending money on other services, such as Yocket Premium or finding a loan, so there should at least be some sense of responsibility.  As the test searches outlined below suggest, there is some way to go before the information available provides full confidence.

In Search of Substance 

A search for universities in the UK provided a list of 124 institutions – well short of the number of degree-awarding institutions in the country.  The opportunity to search by private universities only provided information on Ecole de Management de Normandie, Oxford and Arden University.  There was no mention at all of sector notables such as BPP and the University of Law (one of Arden’s siblings in the Global University Systems family).

Oddities in the UK public university listings included:

–  Northumbria (Amsterdam) listed as one of the three for the institution.                

–  Nottingham Trent, Aston and Birmingham each having two locations listed             

– University of Buckingham, a private university, appears in the list of public universities

The listing of each institution comprised a fuzzy photo of something that looks like a university with the university logo superimposed on top of it.  Adding to the general sense of low-resolution and compromise on detail is that 12 of the universities had no logo shown and 47 of the universities had no indicative tuition fee shown.  That might be a blessing for anyone interested in accuracy and quality of information.

There is a feature which allows a search by Low, Medium or High Price and this has several anomalies.  The most obvious shows Kings College London as having an international tuition fee of £9,250.  A fee of £20,790 for classroom based international undergraduate students appears to be the starting point at this venerable London institution. 

Thirty institutions are listed in the Medium price sector but only one makes it to be shown as High Price.  The University of Bristol occupies this category with a tuition fee that the site suggests is £72,000 when the university’s published undergraduate classroom based BSc is 20,100 and an MSc in Management at £26,500.

The low-priced list did not include the University of Chester which has a rate of £12,750 for international students which is lower than the £13,000 shown (correctly) for Teeside University. All of this suggests that AI or machine learning is being used to find information on university sites it needs some fine tuning. If it’s human research then the quality control needs to be stepped up. It’s currently misleading to students and potentially damaging to university recruitment hopes.

Going to North America

The search for top universities in the USA offered up 242 universities with Harvard, MIT and Stanford at the top but one for “popular universities” listed 659 with Northeastern, Texas A&M and University of Texas at Dallas at the top.  The first two are among those among the 42 listed on the Apply to Universities via Yocket page which suggests there may be a closer relationship between institution and aggregator.

Perhaps surprisingly given the world rankings, Canada has 194 ‘top universities’ listed which is exactly the same as the number shown as ‘popular’.   The University of British Columbia Vancouver and the University of Western Ontario are at the top of both lists but there is no description of how a university gets on one or the other list.  Neither university is on the 42 listed on the “Apply to Universities via Yocket” page.

Generally speaking, the pictures and the logos for the USA and Canada are in better shape than those for the UK.  The site also provides further counselling if you are “Confused about which country to pick?” but this requires upgrading to Yocket Premium.  The paucity of filters to offer comparisons make it difficult to make any sort of well-informed choice without taking that step.    

Clicking through to the university page from the search does give the added information about how many ‘Yocketers’ have applied and how many have been accepted as well as their average GRE quant score.  There’s also some information on scholarships available.  Just out of interest the claim is that 99 have applied to Harvard’s School of Engineering with 17 admitted and 222 have applied to MIT’s School of Engineering with 14 admitted.  Whether or not they chose to use Yocket’s other services or counselling is not made clear.

Further Insights

The application to universities service is currently limited to 42 institutions with only the universities of Wolverhampton, Sheffield, Huddersfield and Essex listed for the UK.  These universities do not appear to receive special treatment in other search facilities on the site and the nature of the relationship is unclear.  A 5 May 2020 blog post on the site in the Applying to Universities section indicates a session with University of Essex where participants may receive an “on the spot offer” depending on eligibility.

In answering the question Why Should I Choose Yocket?  the company says that it has “..been a helpful companion to 300,000+ study abroad aspirants since 2016. Through a powerful network of students and machine learning algorithms, yocket empowers you to make informed decisions to your educational pursuits.”  The critical question for many observers might be whether or not the platform and its current capabilities is enabling sufficient information for an informed decision.

An interesting feature and highly relevant given the power of peer-to-peer recommendations is the ‘Trending Yocketers’ section which allows direct connection to a candidate who is looking to study at a specific university.  This is supplemented by a Discussions thread where candidates can pose questions in the hope that a peer will respond. 

Yocket may be planning to upgrade the site in the near future. A blog on 27 April invites interest from users willing to participate in the Yocket Hydrogen Beta version.  It is described as “an upgraded platform that is better in design, experience and features”.  With the anticipated growth in India students travelling abroad to study this would seem a reasonable investment. 

Some Thoughts

Yocket’s story is well known and it has recently announced plans to recruit 300 more staff in 2021 and a further 1,000 over three years.  It has presented itself as enhancing student services in a disorganized market dominated by agents, where students were often misguided.  It is reasonable to believe that the development of an online service provides access to more people but this, in itself, does not mean that students are better advised or informed.

It is difficult to know how the information about universities is being gathered and the extent to which it is verified to allow reasonable comparisons.  Whether the other Yocket services – such as premium service at a reported £500 per student – gives well-founded counselling is also hard to know.  The company’s 7th Annual Virtual Meet Up in March 2021 claims to have gathered 40 universities from the US, UK, France and New Zealand and over 4,000 students, so the demand would seem to be there.

From the point of view of institutions news stories have indicated that universities can get directly involved for between $1,000 and $10,000 dollars.  This gets access to services that reach out to students in a growing market and may be tempting.  Institutions who choose to engage might consider learning how data is used and the terms under which additional services, particularly loans, are being offered.      

There are also questions about the levels of transparency, the comprehensiveness of coverage and the quality of information available.  For universities who have not given permission for their brands to be used it may be time to consider whether the format and presentation is acceptable and they should certainly check the details given about them.  Aggregators are using university names and logos as bait for students and then selling other services so it would be reasonable to take an assertive stance.

The overall impression is that Yocket started as a page allowing students to exchange information about universities and has become a business operating in one of the fastest growing student recruiting markets in the world.  The founders have commented extensively on their desire to ensure a more accessible and better organized service for students than they believe many recruitment agents have offered.  These are fine principles but operationalizing them probably requires more attention to detail than is currently evident on the site.  

NOTES

1.  *For those unfamiliar with popular music “Brass in Pocket” is a 1979 single by The Pretenders.   Apparently, lead singer Chrissie Hynde overheard someone enquiring if anyone had, “Picked up dry cleaning? Any brass in pocket?”  Brass is Northern English slang for money but is used idiomatically in several other ways including “brass neck” to mean showing a lot of nerve.

** Stupidsid.com started in February 2010 as a college review website with students’ opinions on colleges, courses and universities. It has developed to provide Study Resources (including solved question papers, university syllabuses and previous questions) and Knowledge Hub (claimed to be the “largest database of engineering-related information you’ll ever come across.”)

2. Searches were carried out on various browsers over the period from 13 to 17 May.

Image by WikiImages from Pixabay

Do Aggregators Match Up?

There’s significant interest in the higher education community about the rise of websites claiming to match students to degree programmes and what they might mean for student choice.  The websites and public comments of these aggregators are strong on claims about transparency, choice and putting the interests of students first.  This blog gets close and personal with a couple of websites of main players and gets granular enough to suggest that there might be room for improvement.

As a disclaimer I should note that, despite a philosophical preference for all education to be free, I appreciate the value that private investment can bring to expanding choice and opportunity.  If investors can employ people and make a return while offering good value to students, it seems to me to be an acceptable trade off.  I also have no reason to disbelieve the claim of aggregators that they aim to make global student choice easier and more accessible.

To ease the flow of the blog I have put a note of search terms used at the bottom of the text.  As with all research there is an element of subjectivity in my choices but they serve to explore some points about the way the system works. The two operators chosen reflect their scale and profile rather than any value judgement about their quality compared to other operators in this increasingly crowded space.

Before plunging into that detail there are a couple of general points that emerge from looking at several aggregator websites: 

–  The word ‘partner’ occurs often without a full explanation of what the relationship is or what due diligence has been done to ensure quality or appropriateness.  There is usually even less   insight into the nature of the commercial relationship with their partners and the ways that this might skew presentation of information.    

An example of that the Studyportals Bachelorportal top level search* produced 839   courses on the ‘Our Picks’ list.  The first 10 were the University of Lincoln and the first 253 were flagged as ‘Featured’.  The site says, “the university partners with us for this programme to reach students like you”.  Studyportals have confirmed that being featured represents ‘paid exposure services’ for the universities in question.

It is common for internet search engines to tell the user which results are adverts.  But when an aggregator lists ‘Our Picks’ it might be taken to imply that they take some responsibility (other than being paid) for the selection.  While Studyportals gives details about its organizational partners and its student partners it does not do so about university partners.       

–   There are many claims intended to satisfy students about the choice the site offers and the lure of counselling about those options. For example, ApplyBoard claims to have “built partnerships with over 1,500 primary, secondary, and post-secondary educational institutions, and work with 5,000+ recruitment partners”.  It’s difficult to know the breakdown of these and the website gives no indication of how many universities in each of the four countries  – Canada, USA, UK and Australia – can be searched on the site.

Using the ApplyBoard Quick Search and asking a broad query to study Business in the United Kingdom offered 10,000+ programs in 100+ “schools”.  My count was of only 70 institutions named with the 100 being achieved through branch campuses – including the most, eight, from University of Law.  At least 40 of the 100+ links led to pathway operations from Study Group, Kaplan, INTO, Navitas or CEG.

With over 140 degree bearing institutions in the United Kingdom it seems arguable that ApplyBoard is some way short of offering a critical mass of choice for students using the service. One of the arguments levelled against student recruitment agents has been that their choice is restricted to institutions who they have commercial terms with.  The strength of this may be that they usually have the benefit of familiarization trips and visits from university or pathway staff to enhance the advice they give students.  The extent to which an aggregator offers counselling         advice based on direct personal knowledge of an institution may be an area for development.      

To an extent none of that would matter if the much-vaunted machine learning, artificial intelligence and algorithms were providing good matching between the student and the university.  A student would put their information into the system and it would throw out carefully calibrated responses that reflected the student’s personal needs as well as their academic capability.  Testing across the aggregators is complex and cannot be consistent because search terms are rarely the same but a look at Apply Board and Studyportals gives some indication of what the student experience looks like.  The analysis took place between 8 and 11 May.

Apply Board

Even for a native English speaker the process is tough to navigate so I decided to go with being a US citizen who had studied in the UK to A-level.  After my experiment with a top-level query (discussed above) I filled out both the eligibility and school filters on the page to give a more precise search for a UK university**.  It provided 1000+ programs at 45 schools but the results were less than inspiring.

As I wanted to go direct to a university BA degree programme it was unhelpful to find the Relevance list populating only with pathway operations or foundation courses offered by a university through another route. The top option on the list was “2-Semester Pathway – International Year One in Business and Management – Bachelor of Science – Business and Management (Year in Business)” at Royal Holloway’s International Study Centre run by Study Group.  This suggests that the algorithm does its best but may not always reflect what students are searching for.

When I tried to view the list by the “school rank” option I presumed it would be indicative of university rankings although there was no source indicated.  Given this expectation it was surprising to find the universities of Manchester, Durham and Lancaster further down the list than Anglia Ruskin University.  There would be merit in clarifying what the ranking system is and also, what the progression rate to the university is if a pathway option is shown. 

When I entered the same search terms for study in Canada (changing my visa status to Canadian Study Permit or Visitor Visa and the duration to a four-year bachelors) I got 25 schools and 139 programs with direct entry options at universities at the top.  Presumably, this reflects the lower number of pathway operations in Canada or the strength of ApplyBoard connections in the country.  

For the USA (visa status F1 and as a UK national) it was 91 schools and 1000+ programs but with INTO’s Undergraduate Pathway at George Mason University at the top and their two-semester business pathway at Suffolk University third on the list.  Digging further down the list it became clear that the pathway operations were featured relatively heavily rather than the ‘direct admission’ I had searched for.  This, couple with the UK experience, might suggest that pathway operators are early investors in the aggregator model in countries where they have a foothold. 

Studyportals

The recent linking of Studyportals with Times Higher Education Student is one of the most apparent signs of league table compilers looking for ways to exercise their aggregator power over student interest.  Studyportals pages currently appears to favour the QS World University Rankings as a yardstick for university ranking and it will be interesting to see if the allegiance shifts.  It’s the sort of decision that reflects the impetus behind deciding what information to present to students and how transparent an aggregator is about who is paying to be represented. 

A helpful feature is the ability to adjust the information received to reflect a currency of your choice and also the actual rate being charged for your nationality. This is particularly important for EU students who, in 2021, will be charged Home tuition fees by some UK universities rather than international fee rates. This is available on the home page but it might be better if elevated to make this more apparent – I totally missed it in my original analysis.3   

I signed up and completed most of my profile in the Mastersportal*** (there is some personal information I preferred not to share).  When I looked at the ‘Recommended for You’ section of my profile I was offered 18 programmes of which all 10 in the UK were through online delivery.  This seemed to ignore my stated preference for on campus study. 

There was no explanation of how these had been selected or favoured but three were from Nottingham Trent University.  So, I returned to the main Masters portal to search for Business and Management at the top level and found that Nottingham Trent University was a ‘featured’ university.  When I searched at this level with ‘on campus learning’ enabled the online NTU options disappeared.

Some Thoughts

The mystery shopping was not comprehensive or even exhaustive but serves to highlight some of the issues that emerge in a complex and dynamic sector where nuance can mean a lot.  My insights are likely to be better informed than a non-native English-speaking student encountering the systems for the first time and the world of HE as a newcomer.  My contention would be that the limitations of the systems and their biases could be made clearer to users.

On the upside, both sites were relatively easy to use and the links to information about the universities were generally well managed.  I did not research aspects of the service that students pay for and it is possible that these would remedy some of the points I have highlighted.  The volume of information on the sites is overwhelming and there would seem to be scope for agents to offer a service that moderates the information on behalf of students.

The sector is becoming familiar with operators showing quotes and testimonials from students who have done well through using the sites but this is a drop in the bucket compared to the volumes looking at them.  It might be more interesting to know the extent to which they are mystery shopping their own sites (rather than drinking their own bathwater) with non-native English speakers.  Students who have succeeded are a much more forgiving audience than those who did not make it through the system.

The march of the aggregators will not be disrupted and probably does bring benefits in offering greater accessibility to students.  But the potential to overclaim coverage, distort perceptions of quality and act as a limiter of student choice rather than an enabler is obvious.  As this part of the sector matures it is to be hoped that, as with recruitment agents, the best operators prevail and become the choice of most potential students.        

It is also to be hoped that universities recognise that they have responsibilities when lending their brand names to third parties and that their very presence as part of an aggregator portfolio lends credibility to the entire endeavour.  They may prefer the word ‘featured’ to something like ‘promoted’ or ‘advertised’ but they should accept that honesty and integrity in the way they are represented is their decision rather than that of the aggregator.  For universities in the United Kingdom the option of making UCAS a wholly-owned, comprehensive and managed service for students remains an option that could become an exemplar of responsible self-regulation.

NOTES       

1.            As with all my blogs I am happy to have authoritative comment on the outcomes and where these add value or correct a clear error will reflect any resulting changes.  The purpose of doing the work and writing it up is to try and improve things for students while making observations that colleagues in the sector might consider.    

 2.           Search Terms Used

*Business and management in the UK, 3-year, full-time on campus, Bachelor of Arts. 

**US Citizen, educated to high school level in the UK with B/C GCE A-level grades, with a Tier 4 UK student visa and 9 IELTS in all categories.  I confirmed my interest was direct admission to UK universities for a three-year bachelors in business, management or economics starting between August and November 2021.  I placed no constraints on tuition, living costs or admission fee.

***UK citizen resident in the US.  Interested in Masters level study in Business and Management in the UK starting in between 6 months and one year.  Preference for attendance on campus.  Tuition fee and living cost budget set at 150,000 (so not a barrier). Bachelor’s degree in Business and Management securing a 2:1. With 5 years of work experience.  Native speaker English level.

3. In the original of this piece it was indicated that rates on the Portal were quoted in Euros and showed international rates and that this might have particular implications for EU students looking to study in the UK (where some institutions have chosen to offer EU students lower tuition fees than other international students in 2021). This has been removed to recognize that at the base of the home page of the Portal you are able to adjust your results to reflect the actual rate being charged and can do so in a denomination of your choice. If this information is put into your individual account it is also adjusted.

Image by Hier und jetzt endet leider meine Reise auf Pixabay aber from Pixabay

LEAGUE TABLE CLICK-BAIT COMPLICATION FOR UNIVERSITIES

It is standard to hear a manager in the English Premier League say “the table doesn’t lie” as they bemoan their lowly position or celebrate their success.  By contrast it has been equally standard to hear university recruiters put the case that various league tables are wanting in terms of nuance, specificity or even veracity.  But it may become even more complicated if university league table compilers have a direct, commercial interest in the outcome of the table and its impact on students.

In a recent article in The PIE, the Chief Development Officer of Times Higher Education (THE) outlined plans for millions of international students who consult its rankings website each year.  He said, “We want to stay top of the funnel and maximise the number of students coming to the site. What we will then do is identify a network of complementary, trusted partners that we will send those students to.”  The potential for universities to find themselves excluded or obliged to pay large sums for access seem obvious.

Regulators, governments and the sector’s networking bodies would do well to consider whether this manipulation of the recruitment process through commercially driven league tables is in the interests of the institutions and the students.  Back in October 2018 the Office for Students Director of External Relations wrote of the “challenge for policymakers….providing information responsibly and well as accessibly” but it is difficult to see any action to head off the private sector. Allowing brands that have been built with substantial public funding to be used as click-bait providing a return to private money certainly does not seem the best way forward.

Selective, Subjective and Subject to Manipulation

It is equally troubling to think that students may find themselves railroaded into choices by an organization that decides how the league table is compiled and has commercial partners who may have more than a passing interest in the result.  Elsevier have quoted Lydia Snover, director of institutional research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, as saying, “every ranking is based on the available, comparable data, and is built on the subjective judgement (over indicators and weightings) of its compilers.”.  Even when league tables are independently audited, consulted upon and done with good intentions they are about choices. 

UC Berkeley’s Center for Studies in Higher Education has suggested that “universities with frequent QS-related contracts experienced much greater upward mobility in both overall rankings and in faculty-student ratio scores over five years in the QS World Rankings”. HEPI’s president, Bahram Bekhradnia, did not find this a surprise and noted, “QS is a commercial organisation. They’re there to make money and their rankings are not objective.”  The higher education sector, while complicit in working with rankings media, is aware that this is a double-edged sword, and it may be that commercial imperative is sharpening one side. 

Those factors are made worse by the documented cases of universities deliberately manipulating the data they submit in order to secure a place higher up the ranking.  A University World News article in 2019 highlighted how the University of Oklahoma had been supplying US News and World Report rankings with incorrect information for nearly two decades.  Occasional errors seem forgivable but the more complex and wide ranging the tables the more scope there would seem to be for manipulation.

Legitimization and Lost Perspective

It seems a long time ago that in the late 1990s a few national UK newspapers would produce university league tables once a year as part of their wider agenda of news coverage.  But since the early 2000s league table compilation and publication has become increasingly central to the activity and business model of some HE sector-oriented media organisations.  Universities have played their own part in legitimizing the ranking races that may undermine their reputation and their ability to compete for students.

Many university planning offices have also spent hundreds of hours analysing league table performance and working to advise their senior colleagues on the levers that can elevate the institution’s position.  It would be difficult to believe any Vice Chancellor who says their university’s league table performance is not considered in strategic discussions.  League tables have become silent and increasingly oppressive enforcers influencing decision making, reputations and student experience.

It is certainly plausible that one of the factors influencing grade inflation at UK universities has been the weighting of a ‘good degree’ in the league tables.  When one university sees a perceived competitor getting league table marks for awarding a higher proportion of ‘good degrees’ the argument to amend marking criteria can be positioned as not disadvantaging students.  Almost without realising it institutions and academics may find their autonomy compromised by external factors.

Methodology, Misalignment and Misunderstanding

Over and above that, the dizzying array of league tables has become a way for compilers to open new routes for advertising income and securing influence.  Universities under 50 years old may welcome the chance to trumpet their performance against similar institutions and it allows the sector to applaud its own achievements.  But when high placings are used as advertising and marketing fodder to attract students the institutions are validating a process which is almost entirely out of their control and where interests may not be aligned. 

In 2004 the Times Higher Education (THE) began its University World Rankings but that has now been joined by 18 other main categories including World Reputation Rankings, Young University Rankings, Emerging Economy Rankings, Subject and Teaching Rankings.  The latest addition of Impact Ranking assesses universities against the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).  The accompanying launch events, announcements and conferences drive substantial content, which may be the purpose of media organizations but that is not the same as the purpose of universities.

The QS Rankings also began in 2004 and now covers 11 main categories, with several similar to THE but some noticeable differences such as Employability and System Strength.  They have built a student-facing event series – the QS World Tours – to bring students together with admissions directors at events.  Conferences and consultancy services also build out of the rankings as a source of revenue.

The variability of methodology that universities are trying to deal with shows in the league table results.  The THE and QS most recent “top 10 global universities” and “top 10 under 50 years old” show seven as being the same in each category but three different.  It’s a discrepancy which seems unhelpful if you are a student really wanting to know which were the best of breed in either category.

So, even when compilers are gauging similar categories they are making subjective choices about what to include, how to weight it and whether it will be important to their readers.  But in what is largely a game of statistical musical chairs there is some evidence that there are also fundamental misunderstandings about what is driving the performance of institutions.  Research by QS has suggested, for example, that students believe that a university’s ranking is substantially linked to employability of graduates when this only makes up a small element of the overall score.

It seems indisputable that league tables have become very big business for organizations that compile them and are influential enough to be a source of power over university decision making.  The prospect of them being leveraged to influence student choice and the recruitment potential of institutions has been made clear.  An informed, open discussion leading to collective action by the sector would be a step towards restoring balance. 

Image by Firmbee from Pixabay

Canadian Pathway Drive – Back to the Future?

Interesting times in Canada as Navitas and others try to muscle in on international student interest in the country’s lure of immigration and citizenship.  The latest to cross my desk is in Newfoundland and Labrador where Memorial University of Newfoundland (MUN) looks to be in discussions with Navitas.  A response to the proposition from the university’s alumni network is a little like being transported back to the union and faculty resistance to UK pathways in the early 2000s.

It’s also a good moment to look at the prospects for pathway growth in Canada over the coming years. This is about the likelihood of resistance by faculty being successful and the possibility that the private operators may get diverted. History has also shown that, for either side, short term gains and potential may not always convert into long term success.

A Canadian Problem or Opportunity?

The scant MUN’s Minutes of Vice President’s Council from October 2020 confirm that a Pathway Proposal feasibility with Navitas has been ‘endorsed’ by the Council.  A response by the MUN Faculty Association Executive (MUNFA) at the end of March 2021 highlights seven ‘concerns’ as a sighting shot.  To borrow from a son of Canada one side of the discussion might be “rockin’ in the free world” but the other are suggesting “there’s a warnin’ sign on the road ahead”1.

Drivers behind MUN’s interest may be varied but the economic case for international recruitment is likely to be high on the list.  From 2012/13 to 2019/20 it saw operating budget cuts of $39.5m along with further capital budgets being lost.  Since 1999 the provincial government has had a tuition fee freeze for students from the province but out of province and international students can be charged more.

Reports suggest this is a scenario that is also being played out in Ontario, Alberta and Manitoba as provincial government’s reduce funding for higher education.  The conditions are ripe for pathway operators to find partnerships from hard-pressed institutions.  Magnifying this attraction is the benevolent visa, work rights and immigration policies that has driven international student interest in Canada over recent years.   

The Past In A Different Country

The MUNFA arguments are all very familiar to anyone who followed the progress of INTO University Partnerships (IUP) in the UK as it took its new 50/50 partnership model into discussions with potential partners in the early days.  Much of the debate is played out in the media but another good source is the website of the University and College Union (UCU).  There may be something for all sides to consider in the arguments made and what eventually happened.

The campaign against IUP at the University of Essex is well documented and laid out in a triumphant Fighting Privatisation Toolkit summary.  It charts the story (from the UCU point of view) from first skirmishes in December 2007 to a university announcement in October that the teaching would be kept in-house.  But as American baseball legend Yogi Berra told us, “It ain’t over till it’s over” and in 2017 the University announced a partnership for a ‘pathway college for international students’ with Kaplan.

Defences were also mounted at other institutions and some university management, for example at De Montfort, even expressed trenchant views about the potential dangers of private providers becoming partners.  It was, however, only two years later (in 2013) that De Montfort, under ex-Vice Chancellor Dominic Shellard, teamed up with Oxford International Education Group for an international pathway college on campus.

It may be that INTO’s 50/50 partnership model with its associated terms was the real problem and later deals were modified to make them more acceptable to universities.  But it is also true that some institutions in the UK have successfully developed alternative approaches to providing pathways for international students.  Institutions that have moved so rapidly to deliver universal online education in the past year might care to consider how they apply that agility to accepting international students who are short of requisite language skills.          

Lessons from the US and UK for Canada

UK universities have, to a greater extent, fully embraced the pathway model with long established groups Kaplan, Study Group, Navitas and Cambridge Education Group having around 50 universities in their portfolio.  Newer players such as QA Higher Education, GUS and Oxford International are growing and well ranked universities continue to gravitate towards private partners with Aberdeen, Cardiff, Aston, Southampton and Queen Mary all finding pathway partners in the past two years.

In the US, however, the story is quite different with many pathway closures in recent years from Navitas (5), Study Group (6), Cambridge Education Group (4) and INTO (3) more than counter-balancing Shorelight’s slowing growth in new partnerships.  It’s always difficult to be certain from the outside what is driving a closure but it’s reasonable to assume that the decline in international students going to the US has made it less viable for the commercial partner to continue.  At its worst that exit leaves a university with no infrastructure, no foothold in the market for international students and potentially a poor reputation overseas that will be difficult to overcome.

There are material differences in the number of institutions and the private/public make up of the university sectors in the two countries.  It’s arguable that Canada is more like the UK in terms of numbers of institutions, it has a degree system that offers flexibility, and it is relatively inexpensive.  But the progress for the pathway providers has been very slow and success may not come quickly enough to ensure rewards.

Riding the Roller Coaster

As the world emerges from the pandemic there is almost certainly going to be a renewed appetite for student mobility but it is a quite different higher education landscape to just two years ago.  The US administration has changed, the UK has seen growth from India outpacing that from China, and Australia, while wounded, is looking for ways to recover.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results should be a watchword for pathways looking to Canada as much as caveat emptor should be a guide for Canadian universities talking to private providers.

Colleagues have speculated on Canada as being in the ‘squeezed middle’ as the US and UK open their doors more widely to students.  It may also be of interest that while the numbers of scholars in the US from China were lower in 2015/16 than 2019/20 the number from India was slightly higher.  There is also every reason to believe that the attractiveness of the US has already increased amongst potential students and this could pay big dividends as the country’s vaccination program increases pace.         

The historical evidence from the UK, and to a lesser extent from the dash for growth of pathways in the US, is that resistance from faculty and friends of MUN may succeed in the short term but is futile over the longer term.   It could, however, be enough for them to delay the seemingly inevitable because the private providers will turn their attention to other opportunities if the attraction of Canada begins to fade.  Universities that have already signed on the dotted line may find that, as happened in the US, pathways are as willing to walk away as they were to sign up in the first place.

Notes

1. Frank Sampedro/Neil Young, Rockin’ in the Free World lyrics © Wixen Music Publishing, Silver Fiddle.

2. Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

Divergent EU Enrollments Create Opportunity and Risk

My recent blog on the significant underlying shifts in recruitment from China and India provoked some interest in what might be happening in other markets.  Generally speaking, the traditional international student markets are too small to move the needle in quite the same way as the big two.  But the main European Union (EU) markets throw up some interesting trends.

It shows what is at stake for some UK universities, particularly financially, if they begin to lose students from countries where they have made substantial gains in recent years.  This may be, at least in part, an explanation for some of the decisions being taken to discriminate in favour of EU students against other international students by allowing them to continue with home student fees.  It will be interesting to see if there is a legal challenge to this activity or whether such arrangements move from transitional to permanent after 2021.

According to HESA data, Poland, Romania, Portugal and Spain have shown the largest growth in enrollments from EU countries over the past five years.  Numbers from Germany, Ireland and Cyprus have been in decline over that period while Italy and France have seen growing numbers at a lower level.  The January 2021 UCAS data shows a 40% year on year decrease in EU undergraduate applications for entry in Autumn 2021 which is largely driven by the reality of most universities charging them international fees.

TABLE 1: Total Enrollments – Largest Growth Countries    

Source: HESA

But as Table 2 shows the overall numbers do not reflect the pattern of growth from each country with Spain, while remaining the top overall sender of the four, seeing its year-on-year growth rate decline for each of the past four years.  Poland has also seen its growth slowing each year during the same period.  Portugal has grown most strongly for the past three years and Romania has had robust growth for the past two reported cycles.  

TABLE 2: Year on Year Increase in Enrollments – Largest Growth Countries

Source: HESA

The most interesting thing is where the growth has occurred.  Total UK enrollments from Romania grew by 2025 students between 2017/18 and 2019/20 with 76% of the increase going to the universities of Bedfordshire and Suffolk.  It is worth noting that in both universities the overwhelming majority of enrolled Romanian students are full-time, undergraduates which brings significant benefits in terms of stability and income. 

Over the five years Bedfordshire’s enrollment of home students has declined by 600 while EU numbers have increased by 1330.  European enrollments have meant that the university’s tuition fee income from combined home and EU students rose by £20m (27%) between 2018 and 2020.  It is a major achievement for a university ranked 123rd of 130 by the Complete University Guide in 2021.

TABLE 3 – Enrollments from Romania – UK Total and Top Two Universities

Source: HESA

A similar but less extreme situation occurs with enrollments from Portugal where Coventry and Anglia Ruskin have taken 35% of additional enrollments in the past two years.

TABLE 4 – Enrollments from Portugal – UK Total and Top Two Universities

Source: HESA

Enrollments from Poland, where total growth has been declining for each of the past four reported cycles shows a less distinct pattern.  Taken over five years, Coventry and De Montfort have grown their Polish contingent more rapidly than any other universities.  Their combined share of the growth both over the full period and in the last two years is around 23%.

TABLE 5 – Enrollments from Poland – UK Total and Top Two Universities

Source: HESA

Enrollments from Spain appear to be much more evenly distributed with well-ranked universities being to the fore but notable exceptions are Anglia Ruskin and University College Birmingham over the five-year period.  No university in the UK has lost more than 50 students in their enrolled numbers of Spanish students in that time despite the slowing growth.

TABLE 6 – Growth in Enrollments from Spain – Top Ten Universities

 Enrollment 2019/20Increase 2015/16 to 2019/20
Anglia Ruskin240190
Warwick285165
Edinburgh360150
Sussex200130
Manchester325125
University College Birmingham140110
King’s College London340110
UCL375110
Imperial420105
Lancaster225105

Source: HESA

The impact of growth from European Union countries may well be a driver of decisions to continue to offer favourable terms to EU students over other international students in 2021.  However, it seems short-sighted and even counter-productive financially to offer blanket discounts if the main sending markets are limited to one or two countries.  Over the longer term it seems inevitable that less economically advantaged areas of Europe will continue to see advantageous tuition fee discounts if UK universities want to maintain enrollments.

Another factor that may be worthy of consideration is that changes to post-work study visas may  prove attractive to some European Union students even after Brexit.  Portugal and Romania remain below the European average in terms of GDP while Poland and Spain are above it and the opportunity to find work in the UK may continue to support growth.  But we may also have to place that potential against rising unemployment for 16-24 year old’s in the UK (up to 14.3% in February 2021 compared to 11.3% in February 2020) and the economic uncertainties post-Brexit and post-pandemic in summer of 2021.

It seems likely that the story of recruitment from the European Union has several more cycles to play out.  With rising numbers of 18-year-olds in the UK the political nuances of allowing EU students to take places at the same fee as home students while not expanding provision for home students may also bring rising tensions.  There are no easy choices here.

Image by Tumisu from Pixabay

INDIA OVERTAKING CHINA AS KEY STUDENT MARKET MAY BE A GAME CHANGER FOR LOWER RANKED UNIVERSITIES

A year ago seems an age away but in January 2020 I was speculating about how the surge of student mobility from India might change the UK higher education sector in terms of demographics and financial benefit.  At that point I described the HESA data as ‘tantalising’ but with the 2019/20 enrollment data available by country and university it’s clear that things have moved quickly.  And there may also be lessons for US universities to consider as they ponder their post-pandemic international recruitment strategies.

The top line numbers from HESA DATA show that the total number of Indian students enrolled in UK higher education grew by 27960 (101.7%) between 2018/19 and 2019/20 compared to a growth of 20,790 (17.2%) for Chinese students.  For each country the growth in the number of undergraduates year on year was around 8,000 but India had an additional 19,000+ enrolled graduates year on year compared to around 12,000 for China.  It is the first sign of a new order for markets of origin with India sending over 5,000 more first year students than China in 2019.

More importantly, the distribution of Indian students by type of institution has proved to be significantly different to that of Chinese students.  One way to illustrate this is a comparison between the universities that saw the biggest year on year growth in each. It is striking that all of the universities with the greatest increase in the number of Chinese students are in the Russell Group but none of those with the most significant increases in Indian students are in the Group.

TABLE 1: Top Ten overall increases for Chinese and Indian Enrollments between 2018/19 and 2019/20

 Change in total enrolled Chinese student yoy from 2018/19 to 2019/20Change in total enrolled Indian students yoy from 2018/19 to 2019/20
Edinburgh141050
East London-151710
Leeds123545
Bedfordshire301595
Southampton1190-10
Hertfordshire-1351575
Sheffield115015
Northumbria901510
UCL106525
Kingston1601265
Manchester88575
Ulster-151230
Birmingham86010
Central Lancashire-1051180
Newcastle85550
Middlesex-110915
Kings College72550
Greenwich-185840
Nottingham72530
Coventry-85810
Note: To maintain consistency private and specialist universities excluded from table.  Of the private universities BPP registered a year on year growth of 1640 from India but a fall of 95 from China.  The London based University of the Arts showed a year on year growth of 790 from China and an additional 70 from India.

Source: HESA

Digging deeper indicates that location is not the main driver of these vastly differentiated enrollment patterns.  The situation for several cities with two main universities is shown below.  Manchester Metropolitan shows relatively balanced numbers but they are small changes and the differential is swamped by the University of Manchester’s growth in Chinese students.

TABLE 2: Selected cities showing change in university enrollments year on year

 China – student change yoyIndia – student change yoy
Birmingham86075
Birmingham City50800
Nottingham72550
Nottingham Trent-150270
Manchester88525
Manchester Metropolitan5070
Sheffield1150-10
Sheffield Hallam-135185

Source: HESA

What becomes clear is that lower ranked universities are securing a significantly greater proportion of the growth in Indian students.  This supports the notion that the changing importance of the two main source markets could have a major impact on the financial strength in different parts of the sector.  But the underlying drivers of the recruitment patterns are less obvious.      

It is likely that lower ranked universities represent better value for money in terms of fees, accommodation and other costs of study which is likely to be particularly attractive to self-funding students.  There is also a propensity for lower ranked universities to make offers at lower grades which means a less competitive route to selection and enrollment.  Several are located in areas that the UK census has shown have strong communities with contacts in India but that would not explain the differences within cities that have two universities.

The differences in performance are very striking and it raises a number of questions about the longer- term strategy of universities that are not currently recruiting heavily from the Indian market.  It seems possible that as numbers from China stabilise or even go into decline there will be greater competition for the growing numbers from India.  It is probably best for lower-ranked universities to make the most of this moment in the sun but if they have the opportunity to develop a solid local community and optimise their contacts with alumni the impact may be long lasting.

More troubling for some universities might be their failure to recruit strongly from either of these major markets in 2019/20.  There are some well-known names and reasonably ranked institutions that seem to be suffering as the big city Russell Group universities excel in recruiting students from China but who do not appear attractive to students from India.  It is interesting but seems counter intuitive that the two with the greatest loss from China year on year are partnered with pathway operators with traditional strengths in the country.

TABLE 3: Universities with the largest year on year loss of students from China (2018-19 to 2019-20)

UniversityChina – year on year change in total enrollmentsIndia – year on year change in total enrollments
Sussex– 34010
East Anglia– 26040
Hull– 2005
NOTE: I’d like to commend the University of Hull for their experiment in charging postgraduates starting in 2021 the same as Home students. It will be interesting to see how it works out.

 Source: HESA

As noted the University of Hull has embarked on an aggressive marketing ploy to charge postgraduate students the same fee as home students in 2021. As far as I am aware this is unique in the UK higher education system and it will be interesting to see how it works out. It’s certainly better than those universities that will continue to discriminate in favour of all European Union students who are now deemed international but are being allowed home student rates.

For UK universities there is unlikely to be any Government opposition to the growing numbers although experience shows it’s always possible for U-turns in policy.  As recently as 4 March, 2021, Minister for Future Borders and Immigration Kevin Foster said, “As we rebuild from the global pandemic we want the world’s brightest talent, who aspire to a career at the highest levels of business, science, the arts and technology to see our United Kingdom as the natural place to fulfil their aspirations.   The changes announced today will ensure once they have received a gold standard qualification from one of our world leading education institutions they can easily secure the status they need to continue living, working and fulfilling their dreams in the UK.”

It sounds great news for recruitment but I am reminded of a Government statement with the words, “We want high quality international students to come here. We want them to study at genuine institutions, whose primary purpose is providing a first class education. And we want the best of them – and only the best of them – to stay on and work here after their studies are complete.” This statement was made by then Home Secretary, The Rt Hon Theresa May, in 2011, shortly before the UK post-study work visa was removed.  It would probably only take an economic setback and rising numbers of unemployed graduates to see post-study work for international students being viewed less favourably by a Government that is still posturing about border control.

For US universities keen to make the most of revitalized interest from international students it is worth considering how recent research from IDP might dictate their engagement and offer strategy.  A survey of more than 800 prospective international students in more than 40 countries who are interested in studying in the US – with more than half of respondents based in India – found that more than three quarters (76%) have improved perceptions of the US since the 2020 presidential election, with 67% stating they are now more likely to study there.  What is clear from the UK experience is that the opportunity to recruit from India is available to almost all institutions if they can get the fundamentals right.

Critically, the emerging facts from the UK suggest that value in the cost of study is likely to be as significant a driver of interest as rankings.  Post study work is an important outcome but students, particularly those that are self-financing, will be equally interested in being able to minimize their outgoings during the course.  Making appropriate adjustments and moving decisively to work in market with a compelling message will be vital for institutions wanting to maximise international enrollments post-pandemic.

Realities, Rumours and Days of Reckoning

Another week another private equity investment in pathways, but there’s no sign of the consolidation that would seem to make most sense in a sector beset by competitive pressures globally, rising costs of acquisition and restless partners.  Nonetheless, a few months of underlying movement with pathways closing or being won might suggest universities are beginning to look at their options in a more assertive manner.  This blog takes a quick run through the latest news and discuss a couple of emerging rumours*.

This week’s sale of Oxford International Education Group’s (OIEG) sale was a curate’s egg.  On the one hand there was the strategic backdrop of Nord Anglia buying the schools and colleges (via THI’s purchase of OIEG) to get a solid presence in the UK.  But the rump of the business leaves an assortment of English language offerings with a pathway business that has seen relatively slow growth in partnerships.

For many years there was a notion that pathway businesses and English language businesses had some sales, marketing and enrollment synergy but recent developments suggest other thinking.  The sale of Study Group’s Embassy language schools to EC came in November 2018 ahead of Ardian taking its majority stake in Study Group in February 2019.  Then in June 2019 English language provider EC sold its higher education arm to Study Group in a “strategic move” which EC suggested supported its “core strength” of full immersion English language provision.

THI does however make a lot of the synergy between Oxford International’s relatively new OI Digital Institute (OIDI), launched in 2020, as an online learning platform that sits neatly with Corndel and Learnship in their portfolio.  As far as I can see those brands offer diploma and language learning courses and OIDI has a range of English language courses, test preparation and non-credit bearing pre-Masters and PhD offerings.  It will be interesting to see how these line up against the credibility of CEG’s seven online degree partners, Study Group’s developing strategy with Insendi and Kaplan’s success at the universities of Liverpool and Essex.

The founders and management of OIEG have remained invested as part of the deal with THI but move from having a private investor with a minority stake (Bowmark) to one with a ‘controlling interest’ (THI).  A lot will be riding on the digital offering but also the capability of the English language business to recover from the drubbing the sector has received in recent years.  A rising exchange rate against the Euro deterring language students, the loss of European Union students to UK universities and the resurgence of the US as a student destination may give some headwinds.

Rumours

Most well-founded rumour is probably that CEG are teaching out at Coventry University and will be replaced.  There is no announcement but there seems no way of applying for a course at CEG’s OnCampus operation in Coventry starting in Autumn 2021.  The recent addition of Aston University and the University of Southampton to the CEG stable must have been welcome additions but it is difficult to see that they will quickly match the numbers at Coventry which were over 700 in 2018 according to a QAA report.

If one were to speculate there might be reasons to think that Study Group can leverage their relationship from the Coventry London Campus to win the prize of a pathway at the main campus.  But there have also been suggestions that Oxford International have a fighting chance given their CEO’s contacts with the university – including a contract stint working on international development.  There’s also the glowing recommendation from an Assistant Professor John Fowler of the university about the engagement with OIEG on the development of online, pre-university programmes.        

Less well baked but understandable in today’s feverish environment is the suggestion that INTO’s relationship with Oregon State University is under review.  The INTO team at the university seems well regarded and it may just be that a new President is running the rule over everything.  The fact that the President was previously President and Chancellor of Shorelight partner Louisiana State University (LSU) may add some spice but it’s worth remembering the Insider HigherEd piece which noted a target of 850 for the LSU pathway with only 136 enrolled students after three years.

There is no secret that INTO’s pathway joint ventures in the US suffered the loss of Marshall University in 2020 and Washington State University earlier this year, with reports suggesting that Colorado State University will also be closing.  Looking at the numbers for OSU indicates that the pathway center has had a very tough year with Fall 2020 enrollment declining 58.7% year on year from 809 to 334.  It may be tough to judge performance under current conditions but total enrollments at the pathway have been falling since a peak of over 1400 in 2014 so the trend is well established.  

Days of Reckoning

It is easy to forget how quickly the tides of fortune can change in the world of international student mobility.  The Australian charge to double digit enrollment growth appears to have foundered on a clumsy Government response to the pandemic and they may be out of the reckoning until 2023 unless there is a rapid turnaround.  A burst of interest in the UK has been partially challenged by the travel restrictions of the past year but the continuing extension of post-study work options will deliver opportunities and the data from UCAS suggests that Chinese numbers are particularly robust.  The post-Biden bubble in the US has seen rising interest from overseas but there are still problems in the tensions with China and the practical issues of getting visas.  In Canada there seems to be a growing interest in pathway programmes at lower ranked institutions and the threat from a resurgent US is looming.

For pathway providers, as for higher education more generally, the pandemic has thrown the need for high quality digital courses into sharp focus but without any certainty that students will want to engage in that medium when they can travel again.  For most universities the realities of high fixed costs in their geographical location mitigate against a wholesale shift away from trying to recruit students to attend in person.  It is just possible that the global student mobility world will return to something approaching the “old normal” rather than there being a “new normal” but with the added options of models incorporating digital and even, so some would suggest, virtual reality.

*Note

I am happy to accept authoritative responses, comments or corrections to any of the points made and will represent them in amendments to this blog.

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

SEVIS Report Suggests India Woes for US Higher Education

The January 2020 reporting from SEVIS* reveals a continuing decline in international student enrollments from Asia in the US.  The figures also point to growing problems with higher education enrollments by students from India.  Even post-study work program Optional Practical Training (OPT), which has propped up the recent headline numbers presented by Open Doors, may be struggling

Over the three-year period** from December 2017 the SEVIS Data Mapping Tool shows a decline of 70,194 student visa holders*** from Asia – a drop of 7.6%.  The percentage of the total from Asia has fallen from 77.2% to 75.47% over the period.  Tables 1 and 2 look at aggregate SEVIS numbers while tables 3 and 4 look at specific levels of study.

Table 1 – SEVIS Data Mapping of Asian Student Visa Holders December 2017 to January 2020 

Source: SEVIS

Digging further into the data by country the latest numbers show particular reductions in the number of visa holders from China and Indian.  The 2017 to 2018 loss for the two countries was just over 11,000 but this accelerated with a drop of a further 20,000 from 2018 to January 2020.  Particularly troubling was the rapid decline in Indian visa holders where a 3,500 fall from 2017 to 2018 became a further decline of 14,200 to January 2020.

Table 2   SEVIS Data Mapping of China and India Student Visa Holders December 2017 to January 2020 

Source: SEVIS

SEVIS also provides an opportunity to see which type of student visa holder has been most affected by the decline.  There are a number of categories but the focus will be on students listed in the Doctoral, Masters and Bachelor’s category as these are most relevant to universities and colleges.  China and India show quite different patterns with the latter suggesting a rapidly worsening situation for higher education enrollment.

Accelerating Decline from India

A breakdown of the India student visa holder numbers shows that the number listed at Master’s level fell by around 7,000 from 2017 to 2018 and then a further 19,850 to January 2020.  A modest upswing of around 3,300 in Bachelor’s and, a more encouraging, 5,400 in Doctor’s complete the picture.  If the Master’s level deterioration continues there will need to be continuing growth in other categories to take up the slack.

It has been noted in many quarters that the UK’s reinstatement of a benevolent post-study work visa regime is already providing attractive to students from India.  Visas granted to students from India were up 63% year on year to September 2019.  With the full implementation of the new regime for students starting their degree in Fall 2020 it is widely anticipated that this will be a bumper year for enrollments in the UK and may bring more challenges for the US.

Table 3 SEVIS Data Mapping of India Master’s, Bachelor’s and Doctoral Level Student Visa Holders  (December 2017 to January 2020)

Source: SEVIS

China Stable But Pipeline May Be Thinning

The China breakdown is showing that the same three categories are reasonably robust but that there has been a decline in Secondary, Associate and Language levels.  This is a development which might, over the longer term, impact on the pipeline of students moving on to higher education.  With the range of potential US enrollment challenges relating to Chinese students growing there is plenty of reason to be concerned that Fall 2020 and beyond will be impacted.

While coronavirus is a rapidly developing issue that is likely to disrupt recruitment of Chinese students to all countries there is little doubt that recent rhetoric and actions in the US have also done damage that may be lasting.  With friendlier tones taken by competitor countries and the availability of better value, good quality options for an increasingly economically pressed middle class in China it may be that even maintaining enrollment levels will be a struggle.  While the decline in China’s 18-year old population has leveled out it will not return to the volumes seen in the last decade in the near future.

Table 4 SEVIS Data Mapping of China Master’s, Bachelor’s and Doctoral Level Student Visa Holders showing also combined Secondary, Associate and Language Holders (December 2017 to January 2020)

Source: SEVIS

As has been noted it is difficult to get to the underlying picture on enrollments because of the intermingling of different visa types and the particular issues related to the historical growth of visa holders doing OPT.  The rapid drop in the numbers for India would, however, suggest that there is a degree of market movement and that US Consul General Joel Reifman’s thoughts on relations between the two countries needs some work.

If, as suggested by some commentators, the size of the decline in Indian Master’s students is partly due to them reaching the end of OPT and not being replaced by incoming students this might suggest that students are becoming used to selecting countries that offer a better path for work or citizenship.  That does not seem like particularly good news for the longer term.   There are plenty of competitors willing to offer alternatives.

Notes

*SEVIS is the web-based tool that the Department of Homeland Security uses to maintain information on non-immigrant students, exchange visitors and their dependents.

**The SEVIS data is not exact to the month on a year by year basis.  The charts reflect the month of publication for the figures shown. 

***The term ‘student visa holder/s’ is used to describe the aggregate numbers shown by SEVIS for the region, countries and/or levels of study shown. 

Post Study Work May Change UK University Enrolment Growth Patterns

The BBC’s claim that ‘UK universities see boom in Chinese students’ shows a lack of subtlety in understanding the dynamics of growth at different institutions.  The latest HESA data available at individual university level shows that just seven universities took 51% of the 16,990 student growth in Chinese enrolments between 2014/15 and 2017/18. But there are intriguing signs that the incoming surge of Indian students might bring a new dynamic to the market.

While China still dominates, the latest HESA data (for 2018/19 entrants) shows that Indian ‘first year entrants’ to the UK in 2018/19 grew by 42% (around 5,250) year on year with comparative China numbers up around 13%.   We also know that in the year to September 2019 the UK saw continuing and notable increases in Tier 4 study visas to students from China and India with visas to Chinese nationals up 21% to 119,697 and those to Indian nationals up 63% to 30,550.  Anecdotal evidence suggests that post-study work rights are driving applications from India even harder for 2020/21.

With numbers from India growing so rapidly it’s worth considering whether this might impact the growth opportunities of different institutions. 

Reputation and Rankings Key to Chinese Enrolments

In the last four years, where data is available at institution level, seven universities achieved growth of over 600 Chinese student enrolments and growth of 50% or more in their Chinese enrolments.  Strong brand and rankings focus in the China market mean it’s no surprise that five of the seven are Russell Group universities.  The University of the Arts seems to have been able to develop a niche brand in a growing area of study.     

Table 1: Universities Increasing Enrolment from China by over 600 and 50% from 2014/15 to 2017/18

Source: HESA

The obverse is broadly true as well.  Lower ranking universities have, generally, found it more difficult to recruit students from China with the eight showing the biggest numerical losses being over 4,000 enrolments down over the four years.  None of them are ranked above 40 in the Times University Guide 2020.

Table 2: Universities with the Largest Decline in Chinese Student Enrolments 2014/15 to 2017/18

Source: HESA

As an aside, it is interesting to note that the University of Leicester switched pathway operator from Study Group to Navitas during the course of the year.  No doubt they will be hoping for a reversal of fortunes under their new arrangements.  On the other side of things Cardiff University, one of the most successful in recent years as seen in Table 1, has just appointed Study Group so there would appear to be some pressure to perform.  Sunderland and Hull may be wondering whether their involvement with CEG is delivering as needed.

Growth of Indian Students Less Ranking Dependent

We are awaiting the HESA data at institutional level for 2018/19 to see how the growth in Indian student numbers will affect the dynamics.  If 2014/15 to 2017/18 is any guide it could begin to level the playing field with some lower ranked universities able to make ground.  Between those years total enrolments from India grew by 1425 but the seven universities with over 150 additional enrolments grew their Indian numbers by an aggregate 1870.

Table 3: Universities Increasing Enrolment from India by over 150 and 50% from 2014/15 to 2017/18

Source: HESA

It is reasonable to note that the big losers in terms of enrolments from India were also at the lower end of the reputation and ranking scale.  West London (-380). Staffordshire (-340) and Cardiff Metropolitan (-300) showed the most significant losses.  But equally, there were no significant gains made by most Russell Group universities.

It is difficult to find any obvious cause and correlation in the grouping that has done well.  One factor, for some of the institutions listed in the table, is likely to be the value for money they offer in terms of fees and other expenses.  For students taking out personal finance it seems reasonable to assume that universities with lower fees, even if below the top rankings, may be attractive.    

Another factor which may be worth considering is the relative strength of the Indian community in some locations.  London (Queen Mary) is always a strong draw but the most recent UK Census information indicates that in 2011 there were significant communities in Leicester (De Montfort), Nottingham, Preston (UCLAN), Northampton and Newcastle (Northumbria).  All that being said, it is worth noting that the University of Leicester lost 90 Indian students over the period – it may just be that De Montfort is eating its lunch.

Future Disrupted?

What makes it even more tantalising is the recently released top line HESA data on international enrolments in 2018/19.  As one would expect five of the big Russell Group players have been top performers with Edinburgh, Kings College, Leeds, Sheffield and University College London each adding over 1,000 new international students year on year.  Their gains account for around 25% of the overall 23,280 increase in total international student enrolments.

But the data also shows that East London (505), Greenwich (660), Hertfordshire (475), Nottingham Trent (470) and Teeside (490) all had faster year on year growth in international enrolments than Exeter (345), Warwick (385), Lancaster (60) and Newcastle (40).  It’s a little early to call the outcomes and the figures are not available at institutional level by country of domicile.  But there is just a hint that the return of post-study work visas has disrupted enrolment patterns and some lower-ranked universities may have the most cause to be grateful.

Notes:

  1. The term ‘international’ is used here to described students paying international fees and excludes European-union students who pay the same fee as UK students.
  2. The data in the Future Disrupted? Section is taken from HESA data:
    1. HE student enrolments by HE provider and domicile Academic year 2018/19
    1. HE student enrolments by HE provider and domicile Academic year 2017/18

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay 

Nine out of ten international students (might) prefer….

If governments and educational institutions are serious about differentiation, market segmentation and strategic marketing they should be wary of headline grabbing boasts driven by shallow or questionable research.  It’s been a recurring and growing occurrence in recent years but is unlikely to lead to the type of self-analysis and improvement that will build competitive advantage.  There are plenty of examples but a small sample relating to international students and taken from the four main recruiting countries is sufficient to show the problem.       

A recent PIE article trumpeted the ‘overwhelming satisfaction’ that international student have with their experience in US higher education.  The World Education Services (WES) survey, ‘Are US HEIs meeting the needs of international students?’ asserts that 91% of respondents are ‘overwhelmingly satisfied with their experience studying in the U.S’.  But the report itself makes the point that the survey findings ‘may not be generalizable’ to the US international student population and may suffer from ‘self-selection and sample biases.’  There’s certainly plenty to question about how representative a sample of 1,921 self-selecting students can be. 

This outcome has similarities to the recent UUKi Graduate Outcome Survey 2019 carrying the line that over 90% of graduates who studied in the UK were ‘satisfied or very satisfied with all aspects of their lives’ (UUKi Graduate Outcome Survey 2019).  As noted in a previous blog the UUKi Survey is flawed for reasons that are as uncomfortable in terms of the ways universities engage with alumni.  Only 6% of the total respondents were from China and, as a footnote confirms, “in the year 17-18, Chinese students made up 33% of the total non-EU student population…”.               

Looking further afield Canada’s 2018 CBIE Survey indicated that ‘93% of students stated that they are either satisfied..or very satisfied’ with their experience.  The sample size of 14,228 is noted as 4% of total post-secondary students in Canada so still a relatively small group.  And the percentage from south and east Asia was only 45% compared to at least 70% of Canada’s international students coming from those regions.

Of the big four recruiting countries Australia’s DET 2018 International Student survey  saw an impressive 27% response rate from international students.  The outcome was that 89% ‘were satisfied or very satisfied with their living and learning experience in Australia’.  Regrettably, there is no access to underlying data to determine how representative the sample is of the international population.

In their publicity material, however, Australia makes claims about its performance in comparison to others across the world.  What is peculiar about these claims is that the margins are wafer thin with, for example, ‘satisfaction with learning’ showing as Australia 88.5% Other Countries 87.5%.  And the comparison source is shown as *International Student Barometer (incorporating scores from hosting countries including USA, Canada, UK and New Zealand).  The obvious question is – who else does it include?

Readers who are concentrating will have notice an interesting echo across all of the results – 91% (WES), over 90% (UUKI), 93% (CBIE) and 89% (DET).  This suggests that there may be a self-fulfilling nature to these surveys with the international students who take part simply more likely to be satisfied.  Those who found the experience less helpful may just be looking to get on with their lives after a poor experience that has left them struggling to find graduate level employment.

It’s a reminder of the minor marketing furore in the UK, where a well-known advertising slogan for cat food Whiskas was “eight out of ten owners said their cat prefers it”.  After a complaint to the Advertising Standards Authority, this was changed to “eight out of ten owners who expressed a preference said their cat prefers it”.  Perhaps student surveys should come with similar, upfront cautions about their relevance, authority and comprehensiveness.

Another manifestation of the problem is the tendency to cherry-pick data, draw misleading comparisons or ignore longer-term trends in the pursuit of self-congratulatory platitudes.   This can happen with students surveys or enrollment counts. But it’s all part of the bland, self-congratulatory spin.   

Nicola Dandridge, chief executive of the Office for Students, welcomed the UK’s 2019 National Student Survey with the words: ‘It is good news that overall satisfaction with higher education courses remains high this year.”  The full statement recorded that satisfaction had risen to 84% from 83% the year before.  No mention of the fact that in 2014 and 2015 the satisfaction rate was 86%  and, on that measure, fewer students are satisfied than five years ago.

Some might argue that when the survey first came out in 2005 the overall satisfaction rate was only 81.3% and so there has been an improvement over the longer timescale.  A reasonable response to that would be that universities are full of academics who are good at passing tests and that the Survey has been ‘gamed’ so improvement was inevitable.  Institutions quickly worked out how to optimize response rates and manage academic behavior in ways that improved their rankings.

For those interested in more reading on the NSS, The Economics Network has done a really nice analysis of results across a number of dimensions, subjects and sector groups.  As an example, the Russell Group of universities has, since 2015, seen a precipitous fall in positive responses to the statement, ‘Assessment arrangements and marking have been fair’.  It fairs no better on overall satisfaction with scores of 86.5% in 2010 falling to just over 81% in 2019.

Finally, and as an example where enrollment data can be interpreted in ways that distort more worrying trends, there is official reaction to the latest Open Doors press release.  As mentioned in several blogs and most recently in December it’s difficult to accept the headline that ‘Number of International Students in the United States Hits All-Time High’ with anything more than a sigh.  Including OPT students who are doing post-study work and not directly contributing to universities either financially or academically seems an almost deliberate attempt to draw attention away from two years of decline in those enrolled.

It is reasonable to believe that the surveys mentioned and the individuals quoted are well intentioned, but the best organizations are obsessed with using research to find out what can be improved, and they realize the difference between the PR ‘puff’ and game-changing insights.  Higher education decision makers need to be more demanding of student surveys and focus their thinking on students who are unhappy or who are not trying the product at all.  They might also care to look harder at whether graduates are finding their degree has genuinely opened up better options, or whether they are benefiting from the ‘aftercare’ service implicit in alumni relations promises.

Colleagues elsewhere in the sector have also commented extensively on the ‘survey fatigue’ that is reducing response rates and undermining credibility.  But there should be equal concern about the self-interest of organizations that accept the status quo even when it is manifestly inadequate.  Far better to follow the line that made Bill Gates one of the richest people in the world – “Your most unhappy customers are your greatest source of learning.”

Image by Florian Bollmann from Pixabay