Tag: international

Open Doors and Outliers – Looking For Rubies in a Mountain of Rocks

Open Doors data, published by the Institute of International Education (IIE) on 13 November, confirms the much-anticipated decline in international student enrollments in the US. But delving into the detail demonstrates that there are also outliers with significant growth in international students year on year. It is always interesting to dig down to see who is bucking the trend – but more importantly how they are doing it.

At the headline level there is unmitigated gloom with the total number of enrolled international students in 2017/18 down by 11,797 (1.3%) on the prior year. There are also signs of a fractured pipeline for Fall 2018 with non-degree student starters down 9.7% year on year (4,868 students) and down 23.8% (14,135 students) from the 2014/15 peak. Since a 2015/16 high-point undergraduate and postgraduate new-enrollments are down by 9% (10,723) and 6.8% (8,556) respectively.

Table 1 – New International Student Enrollment in the US 2007-08 to 2016-17
Source: Open Doors Report on International Educational Exchange. Retrieved from http://www.iie.org/opendoors

Against that background the state of Kentucky was eye-catching for two reasons. It posted a 26.9% increase in international students – an exceptional performance for a state that was, in 2016/17, 31st in overall popularity in terms of volume of students enrolled. Within the state Campbellsville University was the only one of the top five (by volume enrollments) to grow and became the leading recruiter with a year on year increase of nearly 2800 students.

Table 2 – Year on Year Change in Foreign Students in Kentucky (Source: Open Doors Fact Sheets 2017 and 2018)
IPEDS data shows that across all domestic and international, full and part-time enrollments Campbellsville grew by 96% year on year to Fall 2017. A time series shows that growth at the institution accelerated very significantly in the past year. Graduate part-time has been the primary engine of growth with graduate full-time and undergraduate part-time also contributing.

Table 3 – Campbellsville University Total Graduate and Undergraduate Enrollments 2014-2017
NB: 2017 data is listed as Provisional Release data by IPEDS

International student enrollments (as per non-resident aliens in IPEDS reporting) have been the driving force for the significant growth over the past year. Full-time international graduates grew by more than 600 year on year and part-time international graduates by over 1700.

Table 4 – Campbellsville Full and Part Time Graduate Enrollments
The graduate growth appears to be almost entirely driven by students from India. In 2016 Open Doors reported the proportion of students from China and India in Kentucky as being equal at 18.9% of the total. By 2017 students from India leapt to 43.1% of the total as China fell to 13.1%.

This is supported by the Quartz news website which published, in May 2018, an article reviewing the courses offered by Campbellsville and another Kentucky-based institution, the University of the Cumberlands . The article quotes Shanon Garrison, the vice president for enrollment services at the University of Campbellsville, as saying that “99% of the students in the course are native to India but live in and work for companies based in the US.” Most students are enrolled in the Masters of Science in Information Technology and Management (MSITM).  which, according to Quartz, is ‘designed to allow international students to work full-time jobs while enrolled.’.

The report suggests that students are required to attend the campus for three days of face-to-face classes at the beginning of each term and that the degree costs around $17,000. Flexibility, affordability and the opportunity to work appear to be key factors in the popularity of the course. It is a powerful combination which appears to have turbo-charged growth at Campbellsville.

International recruitment has always been a space where intelligent minds consider ways to develop creative programming that works productively within the legal, visa and competitive environment. Large institutions can often be relatively slow in adapting to new circumstances or may rely on their reputations to see them through the bad times. Innovation and boldness are usually the hallmarks of smaller, more nimble institutions and their successes are often worth considering.

The purpose of looking more closely at the University of Campbellsville is to illustrate possibilities and is not intended to advocate for or against the model. The Quartz article outlines some of the potential challenges and it is not unusual for innovation to appear in specific niches that are inaccessible or out of scope for other institutions. But at a difficult time for US international student recruitment it’s interesting to see opportunities that are still being discovered and exploited.

 

GLOBAL LEAGUE TABLES OFFER MIXED NEWS FOR THE US AND PATHWAY PROVIDERS

Credible and well publicised global comparative university rankings are one factor changing the face of international recruitment. Students and their advisers can compare and contrast between Beijing, Berlin, Boston and Birmingham at the touch of a button. The rapid growth of online courses from universities around the world has also helped to popularise the notion of ‘shopping’ for courses through the internet.

It is clear that league tables matter and that universities see them as an important part of student recruitment.  Some less welcome consequences include misleading claims and recent incidents suggest that data submitted is not always accurate.  Perhaps these incidents reflect the recognition that league tables can help build reputations that support both country and institutional desirability.

In that respect evidence suggests the US is losing its way as a global rankings leader with strength in depth.  For pathway providers it’s a double-whammy when the quality of their US partnerships, as defined by global comparisons, looks to be lagging behind their partners in other parts of the world.  At a difficult moment for US recruitment of international students it may be another indicator of harder times ahead.

US DECLINE IN GLOBAL RANKINGS
The US has traditionally been dominant at the top of global rankings and remains powerful. But The Economist (May 19th 2018) highlighted how its broader grip on the Academic Ranking of World Universities (ARWU) table has slipped over time.  Chinese and Australian universities have seen the most significant growth in the table over that period.

Table 1 - Representation of Countries in ARWU TOP 500 - 2003 to 2017

The Times Higher Education (THE) World Rankings also noted that in 2018 ‘two-fifths of the US institutions in the top 200 (29 out of 62) have dropped places.’ In contrast, two Chinese universities had risen into the top 30 for the first time.  This shift in global power reflects the growing power of China as a first choice for international students.

US PATHWAY PARTNERSHIPS BELOW TOP LEVEL
While many US universities are slipping in global rankings, pathway providers also seem to be struggling to secure partnerships with the very best universities in the country. Since April 2016 none of the partnerships announced by Study Group, Navitas, INTO or Shorelight has been in the top 200 in the QS Ranking or THE World rankings.  Only two make it into the US News and World Report (USNWR) Global top 200.

Table 2 – Comparative Ranking of New US Pathway Partnerships Announced Since April 2016*National rank unless noted

Looking over the total portfolio of pathway partners of the ‘big 4’ providers in the US shows that more than half are not globally ranked by the QS, THE or, even in the US News and World Report Global Top 1000.

Table 3 – Global League Table Rankings of Pathway Provider Institutions in the US

UK PATHWAY PARTNERSHIPS LOOK STRONGER IN GLOBAL RANKINGS
Three of these providers are active in the UK where their portfolios look significantly stronger in terms of global rankings. With the addition of the fourth big player in the UK – Kaplan – the overall number of partners is similar. At an aggregate level the worst performance is in the USNWR ranking but even by that measure less than a third of partners are unranked.

The UK is a more mature market for pathways but the recent emphasis of the major players seems to be on enhancing quality. Kaplan partnered with the University of Nottingham in July 2016 and Study Group announced a deal with Durham University in February 2017. Kaplan and Navitas have established new-style arrangements, including investment in infrastructure, with long-term partners Liverpool and Swansea respectively.  INTO’s last UK deal was with the University of Stirling in April 2014.

Table 4 - Comparative Global League Table Rankings of Pathway Provider Institutions in the UK

A GLOBAL LEAGUE TABLE FOR THE ERA OF THE CLICK
Some pathway groups also have strong representation in Australia (and to a lesser extent in Canada). A composite league tables to reflect this and show the ‘top 11’ pathway partner universities, according to three major global league tables, shows considerable consistency. Six universities (shaded) are in all the tables and five are in two.  It is, however, worth noting that all but one have slipped lower in their placing between THE 2018 and THE 2019.

Table 5 - Top Pathway Partner Universities In Selected Global League Tables

NB: The University referred to in the table as Alabama is the University of Alabama – Birmingham.

CONCLUSION
Most people who work in the sector have seen the growth of league tables as an imposition with occasionally perverse consequences for investment and resource allocation in the institution. It is entirely possible to argue that that the rankings are arbitrary and spurious with no particular relevant to student outcomes.  But they are increasingly offering new layers of insight to capture attention – the QS Graduate Employability Rankings is an example.

Students, parents, agents and employers look at league tables and most student recruitment marketing focuses on favourable rankings while ignoring less flattering indicators. They are far from the only factor involved in decision making but they set a tone that influences potential students and staff. It is rare to find an institutional leader who is not keenly aware of their relative performance.

In terms of international recruitment league tables are part of an institution’s ‘sales kit’ and the growth of global comparisons exposes their relative strengths and weaknesses. It is noticeable that as international student growth has stalled in the UK over the past five years the bigger and better ranked university ‘brands’ have taken a larger share of those coming to the country.  It seems inevitable that this will be the story for the future and that universities without ranking ‘power’ will need to work harder to avoid being marginalised.

NOTE:

The exact nature of pathway provider and university partnerships is not always clear but extensive efforts have been made to focus on pathway partnerships where students are taught on-campus.  The author is happy to hear from any authoritative source who has information that might improve the accuracy of the article.  Any corrections will be noted below. 

Correction and Update – 1 October 2018
The tables and commentary have been updated to reflect the publication of the THE Global Rankings 2019 during week commencing 24 September 2018 (comparative positions for individual universities are shown).  Broadly speaking the new table showed declining rankings for both US and UK universities   In addition, the tables have been corrected to show the rankings for Shorelight partner the University of Mississippi (Table 2) and INTO partner the University of Exeter (Table 5).

AN ENGLISHMAN ABROAD SPEAKS IN TONGUES

When the Spanish Armada sailed in May 1588 the intention was to clear the way for an invasion of England and allow direct rule by King Philip II* of Spain. Had that happened I probably would not be investing in Spanish language lessons at the Culture and Language Centre in San Diego**. Sir Francis Drake, the Dutch and the capricious winds off the English coast defeated the Armada and have a lot to answer for.

Learning a language later in life is a powerful reminder of the painful step from blissful ignorance to conscious incompetence. Whether I will ever graduate to conscious competency is difficult to say but the experience has been both humbling and energising. It is also a stark reminder of the extraordinary intelligence, desire and courage of international students.

Every year thousands of young people travel around the world to study at degree level. They endure homesickness, different foods, strange customs and, sometimes, outright hostility while trying to communicate and study in a language where they have limited ability. My weekly evisceration of the Spanish language in a safe and supportive classroom just ten minutes from home pales by comparison.

Maybe every university should ensure that anybody engaging with international students has to do a course where they learn an unfamiliar language. This would give due regard to those academics and administrators who are genuine polyglots and should build empathy for students. I can even see marketing advantages in publicising that the institution recognises the interplay between language acquisition and academic achievement.

My rationale for learning Spanish at this point in my life is that I live ten miles from the Mexican border and wanting to start coaching football in a region with many bilingual youngsters. But the greater reality is that after years of posturing I ran out of excuses not to learn a second language. Time, funds and opportunity are the ultimate cure for fear, indolence and procrastination.

The fear is real because I was terrible at languages at school. Three years of compulsory German did little more than enable me to name two of Santa’s reindeers, seek attention or demand that people move quickly***. Forced to choose a language to study at O-level (for younger readers these were the pre-antiquity form of GCSEs) I plumped for French.

Unfortunately, I wasn’t even proficient enough for that level of study and ended up in the CSE (Certificate of Secondary Education) class led by the dynamic and ever-kind Mrs Bell. Her hug of affection and delight when I secured a level 2 at CSE remains one of the most perplexing of school moments. I had merely turned up and guessed at the answer to every question compared to those who had not bothered to do either.

One class-mate was so disinterested in his exams that he even refused to write his name at the top of the answer paper. He had heard that you were automatically given two marks for this form of self-identification and was anxious to secure a big fat zero. Having sat for the obligatory twenty minutes at the start of the exam he gave a cheery wave as he was escorted out by a rather grumpy invigilator.

The real downside of learning languages at my secondary school was that language laboratory sessions were always straight after swimming. Sopping wet hair and water-filled ears in an English winter do not go well with headphones in a dank, claustrophobic, sound-proofed booth. The danger of your teacher perforating your eardrum by screeching down the headset was only exceeded by not being able to hear the class bully sneaking up to smack you round the head.

These painful memories explain my surprise that several decades later I keep inserting French words into Spanish sentences. Their relentless pursuit of space in my brain reminds me of both the posse in Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid and Schwarzenegger’s definitive Terminator. I say “Who are those guys?” and they say “I’ll be back” – but where have they been hiding all these years?

More interesting than that game of ‘cherchez la femme’ is my growing understanding of adult language learning and an interesting parallel to management development. Research into adult learners of second languages suggests that the two languages show little separation in triggering activity in Wernicke’s area (the part of the brain largely responsible for language comprehension). This may also explain why my mind finds a French word when it is seeking the Spanish one.

But in Broca’s area, which manages the motor activity of the mouth when speaking a language, the triggers for activity are more substantially separated. This means that speaking the second language, particularly if some sounds do not cross from one to the other, is more challenging. Those who have grown up bilingual do not show the same separation.

It seems reasonable to think that management theory learnt later in life and demanding new behaviours may also be more difficult to implement because understanding and action are not wholly aligned in the brain. The good news with languages is that focused exercise in speaking can go a long way to overcoming the deficit between comprehension and fluency of speaking. I would venture that the same is true of understanding the benefits of new ways of behaving and working on operationalising that learning.

As a relatively inexperienced but desperately keen manager I read that taking time to regularly interact informally and supportively with colleagues was important. I was very poor at remembering to do this, so for several years I wrote time into my working week to engage ‘informally’ with individuals in my team. Looking back this mechanistic approach seems forced and artificial but it was a way of turning theory into reality for someone finding their way as a leader.

Making progress in developing my second-language capability remains a struggle but has brought a new perspective on the links between knowledge, understanding and action. It demonstrates that learning is a journey with plenty of stopping off points to admire the view and smell the flowers.
Muchas gracias por leer mis amigos!

Notes

* El Rey Felipe II
** https://www.cultureandlanguagecenter.com/
*** Donner und Blitzen, achtung, schnell

US University Pathways – Build It And They Will Come?

In 2014 Karen Khemka, a partner with the Parthenon Group, said “The U.S. third-party/outsourced pathway market is less than half the size of the Australian market despite having a higher education system that is 10 times the size.We anticipate that growth will be constrained only by the pace at which private providers can develop the market.” (Inside Higher Education, Bridge or Back Door? 30 April, 2014).  With reports recently indicating that two leading providers in the US, Study Group and INTO, are for sale it’s a good moment to see what has happened.

Khemka’s statement came towards the tail end of a period when more than a billion dollars was invested in private pathway providers with the potential for pathway development in the US a strong incentive.  But the next billion-dollar question facing potential investors may be whether US pathways were really a field of dreams where you could, to borrow loosely from the film, ‘build it and they will come’.  Or has attention to the supply side of the equation ignored the challenges of changing patterns of demand around the world?

To size the growth in capacity in the US I took the NAFSA publication Landscape of Third-Party Pathway Partnerships in the United States (NAFSA, 2017) as a starting point. The publication identified eight providers who were partnering with 45 institutions on 1 April 2016. The criteria was that these partnerships had to be ‘contractual agreements between universities and third-party entities to provide English language courses along with academic credit.’

I revisited each of the third-party entities listed to determine what relationships they have added. It is reasonable to say that the wording of some media statements and the content of web-sites is, either by accident or design, unclear about the exact nature of the relationship or offering. However, Table 1 summarises my understanding of new partnerships that meet the original criteria and notes the dates they were announced.

Table 1 – New US Pathways of Eight Providers Announced 2016 to 2018

* Source: Landscape of Third-Party Pathway Partnerships in the United States (NAFSA, 2017)
**I can find no public announcement of the Shorelight partnership with Utah but it is reflected on the web-site of each organisation

Table 2 shows arrangements listed on the providers’ websites but which I have omitted. I am happy to accept any authoritative corrections in my understanding of the nature of the partnerships or courses provided and to add any partners I have missed.  I have not gone beyond the original group of providers although a number of additional providers, such as EC Higher Education, have also developed pathway courses in recent years.

Table 2 – Partnerships listed on provider websites but not meeting criteria

The eight providers have added 21 new partnerships to the 45 shown in the original study – a growth of 47%. This suggests that the private providers have set about growing their businesses in the US with a good deal of vigour and some degree of success. At the time of Khemka’s quote in 2014 Shorelight was a new player but they have moved on to secure the most partnerships just four years later.

That growth in pathway capacity comes at a time when the global balance between supply and demand is in a state of flux and the future is somewhat less certain. The expanding availability of degrees taught in English and the ambitious targets of both traditional recruiting countries and emerging destinations has radically changed the competitive environment. While much of the world is adding rocket fuel to its recruiting engines the US looks to have loaded its unleaded petrol engine with diesel.

In the US a decline in non-degree new enrolments in 2015/16 was followed a year later by both graduate and undergraduate new enrolments declining. And non-degree enrolments continued to fall in 2016/17 which may be a leading edge indicator of further decline. The IEE Fall 2017 International Student Enrollment Hot Topics Survey says ‘Responding institutions report a 6.9 percent decline of international students enrolling for the first time at a U.S. institution, continuing the declines first seen in Fall 2016.’ (IEE, November 2017)

Table 3 – US New International Student Enrollment, 2006/07-2016/17
Source: Institute of International Education (2017). Open Doors Report on International Education Exchange. Retrieved from http://www.iee.org/opendoors

Like many sectors higher education is being obliged to rethink the fundamentals of supply and demand as demographics, competition and disruptive technologies undermine the old certainties.  It is a challenging moment to be launching new initiatives and building capacity based on past performance.

NOTES AND CORRECTIONS

This post was updated on 24 September 2017 to include Lynn University as a Study Group partner announced in May 2017.  Other related statistics have been updated.  At the time of announcement it was billed as ‘is set to open in January’ – presumably 2018.  As of the date of this correction the partner is billed on the Study Group site as ‘Launching Soon’.

Winning And Losing In Global Recruitment

A lot is written about ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ in the race for international students. Putting some edges on that brings some surprises in terms of scale and the institutions in each camp. Between 2012/13 and 2016/17 the biggest eleven gainers in the UK ‘gained’ nearly 20,000 more international students while the eleven largest losers ‘lost’ approaching 19,000 students.

The outcomes show that mid-ranking, non-metropolitan, and less well-known universities can compete at the top table.  It is also clear that being part of an exclusive clique of universities is not, on its own, enough.  Good case studies abound for anyone wanting to grow enrolments in challenging times.

These conclusions are drawn from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data showing international (non-UK or Other European) students enrolled by institution between 2012/13 and 2016/17. It’s a public record, self-reported by universities, and is widely used so it is one way of keeping score. I reflect on some of the complexities in notes at the end of the blog (and look forward to any corrections or challenges). When I worked for universities the time honoured response from planning offices to questions about student numbers was ‘how many would you like us to have’!

To give context HESA reported non-European enrolments between 2012/13 and 2016/17 growing from 299,490 students to 307,540 with a high point of 312,010 in 2014/15 (https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/sfr247/figure-8).  This is a total for all levels, years and modes of study.

WINNERS ARE NOT ALWAYS AS EXPECTED
Unsurprisingly large, well-established, metropolitan universities with strong rankings are well represented in the top eleven gainers.  I was told that when  one Russell Group university began to consider its brand management its proud response to questions about key selling points was ‘we’re big and we’re old’. For some that may still be enough but they are far from the only winners.

At number eleven, De Montfort University (DMU) has shown that clear strategic direction, strong engagement at senior levels and powerful execution can make a substantial difference. As CEO of their pathway partner, Oxford International Education Group, I saw at close hand the strong commitment to internationalisation and collaborative working. Their overall success reflects the drive of James Gardner, Pro Vice-Chancellor for International and Ben Browne, COO, under the leadership of Vice Chancellor, Prof Dominic Shellard.

Their partnership with Oxford International, established in 2013, has also played a part with integrated degrees and 94% progression rates in 2015-16 (QAA Educational Oversight, March 2017) boosting enrolments. A good lesson for any university with a private provider as partner is to be found in the strength of working relationships between Oxford International’s founder, David Brown, and former-Director of Global Sales, David Anthonisz, and senior university figures, including Gerard Moran, Director of Academic Partnerships.

Table 1 – Top Eleven Changes in International Enrolment by Headcount 2012-13 to 2016-17
Source: HESA tables 2012/13 to 2016/17 (see notes at end of blog)

BUT ABSOLUTE VOLUME IS NOT THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN
One would expect some of the biggest players to rack up the largest volume growth. But significant gains can also be made by universities with more modest starting points. The top five in terms of percentage growth over the period (with at least 2,000 international students in 2016/17) is a different way of considering potential. Table 2 has representation from England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland and demonstrate that major English cities are not the be all and end all.

Table 2: Top Five By Percentage Growth of International Students – 2012/13 to 2016/17 (with total student volume over 2,000 in 2016/17)

Source: HESA tables 2012/13 to 2016/17 (see notes at end of blog)

The performance of Queen’s under the guidance of James O’Kane, Registrar and COO, and Isabel Jennings, Director of Marketing, Recruitment, Communications and Internationalisation, has been outstanding. I worked alongside them to develop an international enrolment strategy from 2011 to early 2013 and again as COO at pathway partner, INTO, in 2015. There were significant challenges to overcome in terms of location, reputation, data, programs and processes but these results show the potential for a focused, well-executed, long-term strategy to pay dividends.

This chart does not include some smaller institutions with growth stories. Falmouth University grew from 125 to 280 and the University of the West of Scotland by a startling 164.5% (405 to 1055) over the period. Cumbria, Newman, York St John, University of the Arts London, Birmingham City, London South Bank, Westminster, and Brighton – all ranked below 100 in the 2018 Times league table – have also added students over the five years. Each will have a different strategy but under tough competitive conditions every additional student reflects thought, effort and delivery.

FOR EVERY RAY OF SUNSHINE A DROP OF RAIN MUST FALL
The universities that have seen their enrolments decline by the greatest percentage lost 18,875 students. Some have had specific difficulties, such as visa challenges. Most are in the lower half of most league tables.

It is possible that the closing gap between the fee value of an international student and a home/EU student may have encouraged some universities to rebalance their community. But it is difficult to believe that many of these institutions set out to lose international enrolments to this level.

Table 3 – Eleven Largest Negative Changes In International Enrolment by Headcount 2012-13 to 2016-17

Source: HESA tables 2012/13 to 2016/17 (see notes at end of blog)

The most surprising is Nottingham University which has a well-deserved recognition for its international reputation and reach. Its Annual Reports for the period suggest a much smaller decline in international students from 6887 in 2012/13 to 6809 in 2015/16. The purpose of this blog is to reflect the data as reported through HESA but changes in reporting may have contributed to the overall scale of the decline.

Nottingham’s 2017 annual report also notes, ‘The University plans for a significant expansion of international recruitment, underpinned by the international foundation year, have been re-assessed and deliverable yet challenging targets have been agreed.’ Kaplan have been selected to support them.

In percentage terms Chart 4 notes those in the top 30 in the Times League Table 2018 that appear to have gone backwards over the period.

Table 4 – Universities in Times Top 30 Showing Volume Declines from 2012/13 to 2016/17

Source: HESA tables 2012/13 to 2016/17 (see notes at end of blog)

What this can mean for a university is illustrated by Table 5 showing income from international student fees over the period for three of these universities.  While East Anglia’s and Essex’s declining income in 2016/17 is not calamitous it results from a declining student body and stagnation/low growth in fee levels. The University of Dundee has, from a lower base, been able to implement significant tuition fee increases.

Table 5 – International Student Fee Income (£000s) 2012/13 to 2016/17Source: University Financial Statements 2012/13 to 2016/17

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ‘THE DISCONTENTED’
Large institutions with strong rankings and good locations undoubtedly have some advantages in attracting international students. But less-well known, geographically challenged universities are achieving significant growth by adopting aggressive, well-planned and brilliantly executed strategies. Equally, it is true that even being well placed in the league tables, a big player with an established reputation, or part of the Russell Group ‘club’ does not guarantee growth.

I have long held the view that, as Oscar Wilde commented, ‘the world belongs to the discontented’. The challenge for ambitious universities is to maintain a sense of productive agitation for improvement in their approach to international recruitment. Constant attention to every facet of the pipeline is critical in a competitive environment as is a data-led approach and careful targeting of potential students with relevant programs of study.

NOTES
1. ‘HESA student figures include anyone enrolled for more than two weeks on a higher education (HE) course that is primarily based in the UK, unless they are an incoming exchange student, on sabbatical, writing-up or dormant.’ More detail at https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/students/whos-in-he
2.Individual HESA tables from 2012/13 to 2016/17 were used to compile data in a time series for all universities in the 2018 Times league table. Totals and percentage gains or losses were calculated from this.
3.HESA tables round data which leads to occasional abnormalities in totals but these are minor in context.
4. The largest institutions in the HESA tables not featuring in the 2018 Times league table are University of Wolverhampton, Cranfield and London Business School – these accounted for 3085 students in 2016/17.
4. This blog reflects the HESA tables as published. It is recognised that reporting errors or changes in reporting conventions may have occurred.
5. The numbers shown in University annual reports usually differ from the HESA data. There are a number of reasons, including timing of any ‘snapshot’ used for University purposes.

China – Pigs in Pythons, Geese Laying Golden Eggs and the Sea Turtles

As we enter the Year of the Dog many international recruiters and university bosses will be anxious to know whether Chinese students will continue to follow the call to the traditional receiving countries.  The period after Chinese New Year usually signals the quickening of pace in the recruitment cycle but may bring a summer of sluggish, difficult dog days for conversion. Some may even wonder how things might change by the time of the next Dog Year in 2030.

It is no secret that China has been the rocket fuel driving international student enrolments for the past fifteen years. The statistics show that US and UK enrolments continue to become increasingly dependent. And while the Canadian beaver may be popular and industrious, and the Australian kangaroo is bounding ahead, they look increasingly vulnerable to any changes in the market dynamics.

Table 1 – % of Chinese Students in Key Receiving Countries

NB: Gathering data that is matched in terms of definitions and timescales is problematic. The general point regarding concentration of students is clear but the sources are shown for clarity.

The demographics of China do not seem particularly helpful. The pig has passed through the python in terms of the bulge in University-age students. There are 32million fewer Chinese aged 20-24 than there were five years ago. And in another five years there will be 18million fewer than today. Numbers stabilise and then begin to grow slowly but by 2029 remain below 2017 levels.

Table 2 – China DemographicsIt would be fair to argue that 76million people is still a very big audience to aim at if you are a skilled recruiter prepared to travel around second, third and fourth tier cities (handy definition at http://multimedia.scmp.com/2016/cities/ ) as the move to urban areas continues.

There is also the lure that the Chinese middle-class is growing rapidly. Surely the wealthy middle-class is the goose that will lay sufficient golden eggs to more than make up for the fall in population?  Well, maybe, but the concept of a ‘middle class’ seems quite slippery.

In 2016 McKinsey were reporting that, 54% of China’s urban households will be classified as “upper middle” class by 2022. Upper middle class sounds pretty well-off but is measured by McKinsey as household income of $16,000 to $34,000 a year. Just for comparison, the U.S. Census Bureau reported in September 2017 that real median household income in the US was $59,039 in 2016. If you have to pay tuition fees and accommodation in dollars relativity becomes reality.

To give this some further context Table 3 (below) shows the IMF and World Bank comparators on GDP per capita. The Geary-Khamis measure is an ‘international dollar’ that allows a comparison between countries allowing for local cost of living etc. The disparity between the US, UK and China on this measure seems stark.

Table 3 – Comparable GDP Per Capita (Geary-Khamis dollars)

IMF (2017) World Bank (2016)
USA                  59,495           57,467
UK                    43,620           42,609
China               16,624           15,535

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

Average wage growth in China looks pretty impressive. Trading Economics/MOHRSS statistics show strong growth.  But a wage of CNY67569 is worth $10,643 in February 2018.

Table 4 – Growth in China Wages

The real question may be whether the burgeoning middle class will secure enough of the growing wealth of the country or whether the distribution of wealth will increasingly be skewed to a super-rich cohort. The New York Times in 2014 reflected on Professor Thomas Piketty’s book Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Critically, the author notes ‘…income from wealth usually grows faster than wages. As returns from capital are reinvested, inherited wealth will grow faster than the economy, concentrating more and more into the hands of few.’

Table 5 (below) suggests that a key question regarding the distribution of wealth to the Chinese middle class may rest on the extent to which China is more like France than the US and Britain.

Table 5 – Share of Total Income Change in Five Countries

Source: Capital in the 21st Century, Thomas Piketty

It may be, of course, that the growth in wealth is such that it will overcome the decline in demographics and the distribution of income hurdles. But a third challenge is how supply matches against demand in global higher education.  In this respect developments in China (as well as other countries in Asia) are likely to bring serious and sustainable competition to traditional providers.

A full analysis is beyond the scope of this blog but recent reports give some sense of the direction of travel as far as capacity, quality and value are concerned:

i) Universities in China have built capacity at a furious rate and as Establishing A Presence in China notes notes ‘at current rates….there will be a university seat for every child in China by 2030’. (OBHE quoted in THE)
ii) Xiamen University opened its first overseas campus, the first Chinese university to do so, in the Malaysian state of Selangor in September 2015. The primary tuition language is English. The campus intends to split its students body equally between Chinese, Malaysian and other nationalities.
iii) The Asian Universities Alliance, launched in April 2017 will boost Asia’s influence on the global higher education stage as well as supporting regional student mobility. Founding members span 14 countries and include Tsinghua University, Peking University, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
iv) Government investment in Chinese academic research is significant and quality has moved ahead quickly. An example, noted by the White House and reported in the Washington Post (October 2016), gives context in terms of research into artificial intelligence.

Table 6 – Journal Articles Mentioning Deep Learning

vi) The Double First Class Project is reportedly allocating 40 billion RMB ($6.04 billion USD) to a comprehensive project to bring 42 Chinese universities and courses at another 95 Chinese institutions to a “world-class level”.

The move towards a powerful higher education sector capable of serving its own people as well as many other international students seems well established. But, as my economics teacher at school used to tell the class – all decisions are economic. She was in a relationship at the time with the person who became my politics lecturer at College who would tell us – all decisions are political. Education is often just a side show.

In that regard it’s worth considering the initiative commonly known as ‘One Belt One Road’. As one of the largest infrastructure and investment project in history it reportedly covers more than 68 countries, equivalent to 65% of the world’s population and 40% of the global GDP. The extension of soft power through hard cash may become critical in determining the long-term movement of students around the globe.

A self-sufficient China at the heart of a global network will become an even bigger attraction for business and, inevitably, for students drawn to a global economic superpower that is investing so heavily and making travel easier and cheaper. Many Western universities have already ensured that they are partnered with well-funded Chinese institutions and despite the odd wavering over academic freedom we have reached a point of no return. It seems likely that there will be a genuine tipping point where the long-established flow from east to west will reverse.  The haigui, or sea turtles, may not need to travel (and certainly not in the volume of the last fifteen years), to secure the education they need for their lives and careers.

In that respect I find myself considering the words of Dr Monika Korte, the scientific director of the Niemegk Geomagnetic Observatory at GFZ Potsdam in Germany. She said, “It’s not a sudden flip, but a slow process, during which the field strength becomes weak, very probably the field becomes more complex and might show more than two poles for a while, and then builds up in strength and [aligns] in the opposite direction,”.

Dr Korte was talking to livescience.com in 2012 about the anticipated flipping of the Earth’s magnetic poles (What If Earth’s Magnetic Poles Flip? February 10, 2012). The article makes the point that the change is not instantaneous, that the period of change is difficult to manage and characterised by a significant weakening of the current magnetic field.  But eventually the needle points in a different direction. I suspect that is a pretty good metaphor for the Year of the Dog 2030.