Tag: graduatevisa

UK Higher Education – A Stopped Clock

One of the most poignant moments in film is when Withnail says goodbye to Marwood1.  In the final scene we have Marwood refusing a drink and Withnail, ever the actor and alcoholic, drinking straight from a wine bottle and delivering a soliloquy to the wolves in Regents Park before walking away in the rain.  The future for both is uncertain. 

I was reminded of this as Rishi Sunak declined to take a last swig of right-wing courage by ending the Graduate Route but decided, even as the heavens opened, that it was time to say goodbye and face an uncertain future.  Meanwhile, the UK university sector has its umbrella, has raged at a largely disinterested public, considers itself “noble in reason” and “infinite in faculties”2, yet remains addicted to international student fee income.  One can imagine vice chancellors and finance directors breathing a collective sight of relief and reiterating the international recruitment version of, “I must have some booze. I demand to have some booze.”3

We want the finest wines available to humanity. And we want them here, and we want them now!

There has been much rejoicing in universities around the UK.  Looking forward it seems that the election will allow sufficient cover for another bumper year of international recruitment as the UK looks to be in slightly better shape for late-breaking students than either Canada or Australia.  Institutions with long-term declines in attractiveness because of courses, location and/or poor management will have the sticking plaster of international fees to cover the bleeding away of domestic students. 

Cover will be extended into the next few years because, on current performance, HESA probably won’t report on 2024/25 enrollments until the recruitment cycle for 2026 is nearly over.  One can also predict that the sector will lose its recent enthusiasm for better, faster data in its headlong rush to smoke the Camberwell Carrot4 of international student fee income.  They might even say the recruitment equivalent of, “All right, this is the plan. We get in there and get wrecked, then we’ll eat a pork pie, then we’ll drop a couple of Surmontil-50’s each. That means we’ll miss out Monday but come up smiling Tuesday morning.”5

There is even encouragement from that scion of poor political and lobbying judgement Lord Cameron whose statement that “there’s no limit on the number that can come” suggest he knows he will never bear Government responsibility again.  This is the David Cameron who, as Prime Minister, led the closure of the post-study work visa in April 2012 and took the calamitous decision to hold a referendum on Brexit.  He and ‘one million students’ Lord Bilimoria can sit harmoniously and enjoy their time together on the benches of the Lords unless Labour gets a second term.      

A pair of quadruple whiskies and another pair of pints, please.

The opportunity to continue recruiting at breakneck speed will be a mighty relief also to some of those universities who have found that their bigger and better placed competitors are continuing to build share.  We are likely to see a widening divide in the Russell Group, where the ability of some to take a greater share of the relatively static market in China will lead others in the Group to look elsewhere for volume.  In turn, this will mean that universities further down the pecking order will have to search wider and deeper in order to achieve the recruitment targets.

Another of the famous lines from Withnail and I is from Danny, who says, “Politics, man. If you’re hanging onto a rising balloon, you’re presented with a difficult decision. Let go before it’s too late or hang on and keep getting higher, posing the question: how long can you keep a grip on the rope?”  We have reached a point where universities have hold of the rising balloon of international student fee income and it will get further and further from the ground.  Without a crisis there is little merit or benefit for a government under economic pressure elsewhere to come to the table and discuss structural issues around funding and fee levels.

But at some point the tether breaks, the grip weakens or the balloon bursts.  It is not uncommon for parties to swing further to political extremes when they have lost an election and most of the signs are of the Conservative’s veering further right and their anti-immigration rhetoric being the basis for the next tilt at power.  Universities might want to consider whether a more measured approach to student recruitment, a better level of engagement in explaining the benefits to the public and a more transparent and timely approach to data as some defence if a more reactionary Government emerges in the future.    

Free to those that can afford it, very expensive to those that can’t

While the continuance of the graduate route has been positioned as good for international students, this is a partial view driven largely by the vested interest universities have in on campus presence.  High physical infrastructure costs and debt servicing have always hampered the willingness to develop of genuinely flexible delivery through transnational education and use of technology.  Several have argued that the higher education system championed by the developed economies is part of academic imperialism rather than a model based on equity, respect or diversity.

Every international office knows that economic swings in most countries where international students are found can have a significant impact on applications, enrollments and debtors.  The decline of the Tiger Economies in the late 1990s was a significant factor and we are seeing the fall in in the Nigerian naira have almost as much impact as the shift in dependent visas policy.  International recruitment is a financial roller coaster designed for those with strong stomachs who are usually looking for those with the biggest wallets.

That’s the real reason that the growth of International Year One has become so important to pathway operators and by dint of second and third year fees to universities.  The growth in international markets where students with inadequate grades for direct entry are willing to pay for a first year on campus is an open goal for institutions and commercial operators.  Access is certainly free for those that can afford it but denied to those domestic students who are barred from similar privilege.

We are indeed, drifting into the arena of the unwell… making an enemy of our own future…

A number of commentators have reflected that the sector has allowed itself to become a convenient political fall-guy and some voices have even called for greater self-reflection, better engagement and more thought on international student outcomes.   Economic factors would suggest there is little prospect of greater direct funding even if a government better disposed to the sector is in power come July.  The answer must surely lie in the sector taking the initiative to engage more effectively in constructive discussions about the shape and size of the sector as well as engaging more effectively with the public.

In Withnail and I, Marwood makes the comment, “What we need is harmony, fresh air, stuff like that.”  It’s good advice for the sector to seek renewed dialogue as well as new ideas that might leave it in a better place for the inevitable moment that the political pendulum swings again.  As we learn from the different endings in the film and the novel it is always possible to change the narrative if you have the will.   

NOTES

The title is from Marwood’s quote in ‘Withnail and I’ where he notes that even a stopped clock, although broken, gives the right time twice a day.  All sub-headings are quotes from the film ‘Withnail and I’1

  1. ‘Withnail and I’ is a 1987 British film focusing on two unemployed actors.   The film is an adaptation of an unpublished novel written by Bruce Robinson who also wrote and directed the film.
  2. The quotes are from Withnail’s soliloquy which is taken from Act 2, Scene 2 of Hamlet.
  3. By Withnail in ‘Withnail and I’
  4. In the film a Camberwell Carrot is explained by Withnail as, “The joint I am about to roll requires a craftsman and can utilize up to twelve spliffs. It is called a Camberwell Carrot…I invented it in Camberwell and it’s shaped like a carrot.”  It has great potency.
  5. By Withnail in ‘Withnail and I’

Image by Łukasz Dyłka from Pixabay

MAC Review with No Chips at Graduate Route

No doubt at all that the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) Rapid Review of the Graduate Route and its recommendation of “retaining the Graduate route in its current form” is good news for the UK higher education sector.  But amid the sound of high-fiving and back slapping from universities and sector bodies a close read of the Review still leaves scope for Government mischief making.  It should also be remembered that MAC’s recommendations of 2018 on a “more restrictive post-study work route” of 6 months for Master’s students was largely ignored. 

Political antennae will be twitching at the sound of Robert Jenrick’s post that “if you order white paint, you get a whitewash” and MAC has left a few open goals if James Cleverly chooses to score with his party’s right wing.  There’s an open invitation to leverage the sector “to support the government’s desired labour market objectives for the route” which could mean manipulation of Student visas as well as Graduate Route visas. He will also have his eyes on the year-on-year visa announcement of Immigration System statistics on 23 May as he considers the next steps.

Sticking to the Exam Question

The Review chose to largely confine itself narrowly to the question about the Graduate Route and declined to take the bait on some associated issues.  In doing so, however, it may have offered a road map for the Home Secretary to thank it for its work, accept the plaudits around the dependent visa reductions and then pursue a new quarry – the student visa.  He can diminish recruitment at source while celebrating that the Government’s introduction of the graduate route was correct.

The quoted objectives of the Graduate Route are so benign and wooly that it is difficult to know what to make of them:

  • “Enhance the offer to international students..ensure the UK remains internationally competitive”
  • “Retention of talent..enabling employers to recruit skilled graduates…contribut to the UK economy”
  • “Increase the number of international students in higher education…increase the value of education exports”

Of course, the Graduate Route achieves those aims because almost any competitive post-study work offering would.  What MAC notes in several passages is that changes to the student visa (such as dependent visas) are where the action is.  Yet on page 32 they are keen specify “we did not examine distinct abuse of the Student route and note that the government did not ask us to do so.” There seems to be a decent signpost for Cleverly if he chooses to follow it.

There May Be Trouble Ahead

If one was looking for trouble and reading between the lines, one can see where the Minister may choose to take guidance from the Report.  Specifically, there may be ways of managing Student route visas to give preference to high-ranking universities (however defined), supporting specific geographical locations, penalising institutions recruiting students who seek asylum and controlling the role of agents.   

  • MAC declined to engage in any assessment of whether the route secured the “brightest and the best” but nodded to the High Potential Individual visa use of league table rankings in its provider groupings while noting that “international postgraduates from lower globally ranked universities are more likely to go on to the Graduate route.”  Explicitly it says, “If the government’s aim is to retain bright international students… and by this they mean those who attend universities ranked the highest globally, then this data suggests that the Graduate route may not be attracting the global talent defined in this way.”

Other areas for caution or limited support in reflecting the value of international students are where MAC:

  • indicated that the data suggests  “students may be moving to London for work after graduating from universities in other parts of the UK”.  In that respect there may be limited evidence for international graduates contributing to any levelling up agendas;
  • reflected the difficulty of determining numbers in employment but showed a 79% match rate for Graduate visa holders and HMRC records and 68% as PAYE employees.  They caution that neither is comparable to a “normal” employment calculation.  Some would argue that this leaves some 20-30% whose employment status is, at best, unknown. It was quickly seized upon by some Conservative party commentators;
  • suggested they are “likely [to] make a small positive net fiscal contribution” which would suggest this is not a key issue for government consideration despite the efforts of the sector to suggest otherwise;
  • noted the “recent reports of an increase in asylum applications” but indicating that is an issue the government should address directly if it is a concern.     

On direct abuse there is some damning with faint praise. Basically the Review notes that there are almost no rules to be abused (which could be seen as a sign of laxness) and limited data to track whether they are overstaying. Comments include:

  • “limited number of criteria a student needs to meet to apply”,  “few restrictions for what those on the route are allowed to do in the UK” and “beyond refusal rates, there are no quantitative data sources”
  • “little evidence available on the numbers who are overstaying their visa length. The Home Office was unable to provide data on the rate of overstaying on the Graduate route.”

The biggest issue related to the potential exploitation of international students by recruitment agents “when applying under the Student route”.  This is a departure from the rest of the Review because MAC decides to very explicitly link the selling of the Graduate Route as a lure for students joining the Student Route.  They claim that HE providers and student representatives at roundtables agreed “regulation would strengthen the ability to eliminate the exploitation of students by bad actors.” 

A more heavy-handed regulation, particularly as MAC included both agents and subagents in the discussion could make for interesting times for commercial operations associated with universities.  While MAC noted that 57% of HE providers (responding to a Home Office survey) used student recruitment agents this would be 100% for aggregators and pathways.  With the growth of direct recruitment relationships with pathways operators the ownership of any quality and oversight obligations is likely to come even more under scrutiny.

Steady As She Goes (For Now)

If the government wanted MAC to provide it with hard evidence to close the Graduate Route down the gambit has failed and the sector can breathe a sigh of relief.  Short of a blatant, politically motivated disregard for the advice given and the evidence base produced the best presentation is to take the applause for introducing the Route and ensuring a globally competitive sector.  The window of opportunity for the current government to act is rapidly closing and without a clear steer from MAC it is difficult to see what the political upside is to radically changing the Graduate Route.

MAC has also provided the government with what it will consider political good news, in saying that the ban on foreign students bringing dependents was having a far bigger impact than expected.  Anything that gives Sunak a “fighting chance” of reducing net migration levels below 2019 levels before the election is likely to be received with open arms.  It’s probably a stronger case than arguing about the growing dependency of universities on foreign students.

After all that it seems appropriate to thank Professor Brian Bell and his colleagues for a decent job done in very short order and apparently without bias towards past observations.  The Review has highlighted some other aspects of student recruitment that are less palatable and it would be good if the sector took that seriously.  Perhaps some universities could also consider this a warning to moderate their approach to enrolment growth.  

Image by Enoch111 from Pixabay