Getting contemporaneous data and sales targets from privately held pathway providers is unusual. But in a July 2019 podcast interview, Sean Grant, Chief Recruitment Officer of Shorelight Education, tells us that Shorelight recruited 3,000 students “last year” (presumably 2018/19) and are forecasting to recruit ”4,000 students plus this year.” Grant notes that the 3,000 student figure for 2018/19 represented year-over-year growth of 35%, which suggests Shorelight recruited approximately 2,200 students in 2017/18.
It was equally enlightening to hear that the company continues to invest heavily in building its sales function. Grant noted that Shorelight’s US-based onshore recruitment team grew from five people to 28 in “about six weeks” last year. While staff growth of this magnitude and pace is prodigious by most measures, it may be the norm for a company that considers itself “the Amazon or the Google of the…international education sector.”
Because Shorelight is a private company based in the US, it has largely been able to maintain confidentiality around its economic performance (unlike UK-based competitors, who are required to publicly disclose annual financials). The Shorelight website shows 17 current university partners, and a press release announced their partnership with Cleveland State for fall 2019 recruitment, bringing the total to 18. Grant referenced 19 partners in his interview, so it’s just possible we may have had early notice of a new partner joining the portfolio.
Shorelight is now in its seventh year of operation since its mid-2013 inception. With the disclosure of recruitment numbers and the indication that the business continues to invest heavily in sales staffing, it’s worth drilling down to look at how the six public universities that signed early on with Shorelight are doing*.
Louisiana State University
Shorelight began recruiting for LSU in 2015 and since then the university’s total enrollment of non-resident aliens have fallen from 1704 in fall 2015 to 1599 in fall 2019 according to the Geographical Origin of Students spreadsheet.
Table 1 – Total Fall Enrollment of Non-Resident Aliens at Louisiana State University
Souce: LSU Fall Facts and Interactive Dashboard
In the form contract between LSU and Shorelight, publicly disclosed by the State of Louisiana, the articulated enrollment goal for the International Accelerator Program, i.e., the pathway, is 850 students in the ’fifth Academic Year of the IAP” (2020/21). Inside Higher Ed reported that in spring 2018 “there were just 136 students enrolled,” and market rumors suggest that recruitment remains a long way short of target. The absence of overall international enrollment growth at LSU suggests that neither pathway or direct recruitment are going to plan.
University of Kansas
There is a similar story at the University of Kansas where the fifteen-year contract with Shorelight came under fire from academics at the time it was signed in 2014. Sarah Rosen, then Vice Provost for Academic Affairs at KU (who has since moved to Georgia State), was reported to have articulated enrollment aspirations of about 600 in two or three years. As Shorelight sought and won an injunction preventing the release of the contract, no further insight into the parties’ ambitions are available. As KU’s total fall enrollment of non-resident aliens (termed international in the Factbook) has decreased during the relevant period, it seems likely that this aspiration was not met.
Table 2 – Fall Enrollment of Internationals at University of Kansas
Source: University of Kansas Interactive Factbook
Auburn University
Auburn signed with Shorelight in 2015. The university’s online, interactive Factbook offers the option to filter enrollments by on-campus, “Primary Major” which includes the various “Auburn Global” programs offered in partnership with Shorelight. Enrollments rose substantially between 2015 and 2016 but have been in steady decline since. Overall, enrollments are largely undergraduate and Chinese.
Table 3 – Fall Enrolment to Auburn Global Courses at Auburn University
Source: Auburn University Factbook
Table 4 – China/Non-China Fall Enrolment to Auburn Global Courses at Auburn University
Source: Auburn University Factbook
At the university level, the impact of the trends within Auburn Global are clear: total international student enrollment has grown from 1639 in 2015 to 3034 in 2019, with the percentage of Chinese students going from 46% to 62% during this same time. Obviously, the financial impact of 1400 additional students is material; however, the risk associated with such a large proportion of students from a single source country, especially in the current political climate, is palpable.
University of South Carolina
The Fall 2018 International Student Enrollment Report from USC captures the five-year picture on the university’s international recruitment. The International Accelerator Program (IAP) has helped push undergraduate numbers forward but its growth appears to have stalled. Of the total international enrollment for the university 40% of students are from China.
Table 5 – International Student Fall Enrollment – University of South Carolina
Source: USC Fall 2018 International Student Enrollment Report
Florida International University and University of Central Florida
Both of Shorelight’s Florida partners have seen strong growth in overall international enrollments. As a comparator, the University of South Florida, an INTO partner, saw total international enrollments grow by around 1500 between 2015 and 2018. This may reflect both the popularity of Florida as a destination for international students and that the three universities have lower fees than the others reviewed.
Table 6 – International Fall Enrollments at UCF and FIU
Source: Factbooks of Florida International University and Central Florida University
Summary
Some crude metrics emerge from the forecasted recruitment outcomes mentioned in the podcast. If Shorelight indeed recruits 4,000 students this year, the average number of students recruited by each member of the 145-person sales team this year will be 28, and the average number of recruited students per partner (assuming 18 partners) will be 222. Seasoned recruitment professionals will have views on how that ratio stacks up in terms of performance.
There will also be opinion on what the drive for 35% growth might mean in terms of cost of acquisition for US-bound students. As Inside Higher Ed reported in June 2018, promotional bonuses were already pushing agent compensation ”well north of the 15 percent threshold,” and it seems unlikely that this cost will have fallen. With the UK resurgent after reintroducing two year post-study work visas competition just got even tougher.
The closure of partnerships by Study Group, CEG and EC has provided insights into how difficult the US pathway business has become. The experience of the partners reviewed here suggest that, regardless of ranking, success can be elusive and only time will tell whether Shorelight’s strategy is a winner. Investment and targets are one thing, but brute market realities are quite another.
*University reporting formats are not wholly consistent. Extensive efforts have been made to verify data used and sources are given for reference. Authoritative comments or corrections are welcome.
Image by mollyroselee from Pixabay