As university admissions colleagues in the UK wander off into the glow of a long Bank Holiday weekend (or perhaps not if you are still recruiting to fill seats) it’s worth updating an earlier blog on international fortunes in Clearing. While Clearing will continue for another month the main action is in the opening week or so and the picture appears to have settled quite quickly. Figures for acceptances are taken at Day 8 of Clearing (Friday 26 August) unless otherwise stated.
At the top level, the relative performance of EU applications/acceptances and those from other international markets means that total international acceptances are 12% of the total which is a percent up on 2021 but 2% down on 2020. Newspaper stories expressing horror about one in five university places going to international students are far from the truth although there are, and have always been, universities with higher proportions. It makes for a very dull graph but the balance may reflect a new status quo.
European Union – Down Down Deeper and Down
Applications from Europe continue to decline and acceptance rates are down at 40.5% from 51.6% in 2020. Fewer students, fewer good students and/or fewer students accepting offers are probably all in the mix. It’s a potent brew with the only hope for the future being that the pace of decline has slowed year on year.
Perhaps most telling is that the decline is not only in the less economically well off EU countries such as Poland and Romania which drove so much growth in recent years. Applications from Germany have fallen 43% since 2020 with acceptances down 54% and those from France are down 42% and 52% respectively. The other European G7 economy is Italy where both applications and acceptances are down 53%.
Other International Applications Rocking All Over the World but Acceptance Trend is Patchy
It has been interesting to watch the Canadian visa system buckling under the weight of study applications and facing assertions of prejudice in decision making. It seems likely that UK universities, in working hard to ensure that their visa record is not compromised, prevent the Home Office from facing such a stark situation. Nonetheless, a situation where an increased pool of Chinese applicants is being accepted at a rate of 48.4% while those from Nigeria are at an historically low acceptance rate of 25.7% suggests something is not quite right.
Acceptance levels from India are also down on every year of the past decade and those from Pakistan well away from the peak in 2017. While top line growth in applications may be a sign of popularity it should bring an obligation on any intermediaries – whether agents, pathways, aggregators or others – to be careful in those being put forward to university partners. What is hidden even further in the undergrowth is the extent to which financially stretched institutions may be taking students who will struggle to last the course or secure the degree they are investing in.
Figures Can Mean Whatever You Want
Amid the triumphalism over achieving the Government’s international student target a decade early there was always a question about what happens next. Performing well during a pandemic when most of the competition has closed its borders is a reasonable start but with the Australians roaring back and the US seeming less prone to self-inflicted injuries the UK may find headwinds developing. The reality is that, counting European Union students, the UK is likely to recruit fewer international undergraduates in 2022 than in 2015 and that should not be seen as a success.
Notes
Just to confirm that the references to Status Quo songs in the sub-headings are intentional.
Image by Arek Socha from Pixabay