Category: Education

Winning And Losing In Global Recruitment

A lot is written about ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ in the race for international students. Putting some edges on that brings some surprises in terms of scale and the institutions in each camp. Between 2012/13 and 2016/17 the biggest eleven gainers in the UK ‘gained’ nearly 20,000 more international students while the eleven largest losers ‘lost’ approaching 19,000 students.

The outcomes show that mid-ranking, non-metropolitan, and less well-known universities can compete at the top table.  It is also clear that being part of an exclusive clique of universities is not, on its own, enough.  Good case studies abound for anyone wanting to grow enrolments in challenging times.

These conclusions are drawn from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data showing international (non-UK or Other European) students enrolled by institution between 2012/13 and 2016/17. It’s a public record, self-reported by universities, and is widely used so it is one way of keeping score. I reflect on some of the complexities in notes at the end of the blog (and look forward to any corrections or challenges). When I worked for universities the time honoured response from planning offices to questions about student numbers was ‘how many would you like us to have’!

To give context HESA reported non-European enrolments between 2012/13 and 2016/17 growing from 299,490 students to 307,540 with a high point of 312,010 in 2014/15 (https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/sfr247/figure-8).  This is a total for all levels, years and modes of study.

WINNERS ARE NOT ALWAYS AS EXPECTED
Unsurprisingly large, well-established, metropolitan universities with strong rankings are well represented in the top eleven gainers.  I was told that when  one Russell Group university began to consider its brand management its proud response to questions about key selling points was ‘we’re big and we’re old’. For some that may still be enough but they are far from the only winners.

At number eleven, De Montfort University (DMU) has shown that clear strategic direction, strong engagement at senior levels and powerful execution can make a substantial difference. As CEO of their pathway partner, Oxford International Education Group, I saw at close hand the strong commitment to internationalisation and collaborative working. Their overall success reflects the drive of James Gardner, Pro Vice-Chancellor for International and Ben Browne, COO, under the leadership of Vice Chancellor, Prof Dominic Shellard.

Their partnership with Oxford International, established in 2013, has also played a part with integrated degrees and 94% progression rates in 2015-16 (QAA Educational Oversight, March 2017) boosting enrolments. A good lesson for any university with a private provider as partner is to be found in the strength of working relationships between Oxford International’s founder, David Brown, and former-Director of Global Sales, David Anthonisz, and senior university figures, including Gerard Moran, Director of Academic Partnerships.

Table 1 – Top Eleven Changes in International Enrolment by Headcount 2012-13 to 2016-17
Source: HESA tables 2012/13 to 2016/17 (see notes at end of blog)

BUT ABSOLUTE VOLUME IS NOT THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN
One would expect some of the biggest players to rack up the largest volume growth. But significant gains can also be made by universities with more modest starting points. The top five in terms of percentage growth over the period (with at least 2,000 international students in 2016/17) is a different way of considering potential. Table 2 has representation from England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland and demonstrate that major English cities are not the be all and end all.

Table 2: Top Five By Percentage Growth of International Students – 2012/13 to 2016/17 (with total student volume over 2,000 in 2016/17)

Source: HESA tables 2012/13 to 2016/17 (see notes at end of blog)

The performance of Queen’s under the guidance of James O’Kane, Registrar and COO, and Isabel Jennings, Director of Marketing, Recruitment, Communications and Internationalisation, has been outstanding. I worked alongside them to develop an international enrolment strategy from 2011 to early 2013 and again as COO at pathway partner, INTO, in 2015. There were significant challenges to overcome in terms of location, reputation, data, programs and processes but these results show the potential for a focused, well-executed, long-term strategy to pay dividends.

This chart does not include some smaller institutions with growth stories. Falmouth University grew from 125 to 280 and the University of the West of Scotland by a startling 164.5% (405 to 1055) over the period. Cumbria, Newman, York St John, University of the Arts London, Birmingham City, London South Bank, Westminster, and Brighton – all ranked below 100 in the 2018 Times league table – have also added students over the five years. Each will have a different strategy but under tough competitive conditions every additional student reflects thought, effort and delivery.

FOR EVERY RAY OF SUNSHINE A DROP OF RAIN MUST FALL
The universities that have seen their enrolments decline by the greatest percentage lost 18,875 students. Some have had specific difficulties, such as visa challenges. Most are in the lower half of most league tables.

It is possible that the closing gap between the fee value of an international student and a home/EU student may have encouraged some universities to rebalance their community. But it is difficult to believe that many of these institutions set out to lose international enrolments to this level.

Table 3 – Eleven Largest Negative Changes In International Enrolment by Headcount 2012-13 to 2016-17

Source: HESA tables 2012/13 to 2016/17 (see notes at end of blog)

The most surprising is Nottingham University which has a well-deserved recognition for its international reputation and reach. Its Annual Reports for the period suggest a much smaller decline in international students from 6887 in 2012/13 to 6809 in 2015/16. The purpose of this blog is to reflect the data as reported through HESA but changes in reporting may have contributed to the overall scale of the decline.

Nottingham’s 2017 annual report also notes, ‘The University plans for a significant expansion of international recruitment, underpinned by the international foundation year, have been re-assessed and deliverable yet challenging targets have been agreed.’ Kaplan have been selected to support them.

In percentage terms Chart 4 notes those in the top 30 in the Times League Table 2018 that appear to have gone backwards over the period.

Table 4 – Universities in Times Top 30 Showing Volume Declines from 2012/13 to 2016/17

Source: HESA tables 2012/13 to 2016/17 (see notes at end of blog)

What this can mean for a university is illustrated by Table 5 showing income from international student fees over the period for three of these universities.  While East Anglia’s and Essex’s declining income in 2016/17 is not calamitous it results from a declining student body and stagnation/low growth in fee levels. The University of Dundee has, from a lower base, been able to implement significant tuition fee increases.

Table 5 – International Student Fee Income (£000s) 2012/13 to 2016/17Source: University Financial Statements 2012/13 to 2016/17

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ‘THE DISCONTENTED’
Large institutions with strong rankings and good locations undoubtedly have some advantages in attracting international students. But less-well known, geographically challenged universities are achieving significant growth by adopting aggressive, well-planned and brilliantly executed strategies. Equally, it is true that even being well placed in the league tables, a big player with an established reputation, or part of the Russell Group ‘club’ does not guarantee growth.

I have long held the view that, as Oscar Wilde commented, ‘the world belongs to the discontented’. The challenge for ambitious universities is to maintain a sense of productive agitation for improvement in their approach to international recruitment. Constant attention to every facet of the pipeline is critical in a competitive environment as is a data-led approach and careful targeting of potential students with relevant programs of study.

NOTES
1. ‘HESA student figures include anyone enrolled for more than two weeks on a higher education (HE) course that is primarily based in the UK, unless they are an incoming exchange student, on sabbatical, writing-up or dormant.’ More detail at https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/students/whos-in-he
2.Individual HESA tables from 2012/13 to 2016/17 were used to compile data in a time series for all universities in the 2018 Times league table. Totals and percentage gains or losses were calculated from this.
3.HESA tables round data which leads to occasional abnormalities in totals but these are minor in context.
4. The largest institutions in the HESA tables not featuring in the 2018 Times league table are University of Wolverhampton, Cranfield and London Business School – these accounted for 3085 students in 2016/17.
4. This blog reflects the HESA tables as published. It is recognised that reporting errors or changes in reporting conventions may have occurred.
5. The numbers shown in University annual reports usually differ from the HESA data. There are a number of reasons, including timing of any ‘snapshot’ used for University purposes.

THE FUTURE OF INTERNATIONALISATION – MUCH MORE THAN A DEAD CAT BOUNCE

Altbach and de Wit’s suggestion, in University World News (23 February 2018), that ‘the era of higher education internationalisation…might either be finished or, at least, be on life support’ is troubling if true.  However, the examples chosen to support their case seem insufficient in number or weight for the prognosis given. There is, however, a need for ‘rethinking the entire international project of universities worldwide’ that recognises and embraces a new era of internationalisation.

Student Mobility – Slower Growth, Greater Choice

Higher education internationalisation over the past 25 years has been complex. Suggesting, as Altbach and de Wit do, that it ‘appears to have come to a rather abrupt end’ ignores that the undercurrents have always ebbed and flowed. Student mobility may be slowing but diversity of destination, quality of options and increasing student choice is as strong a signal of vibrant internationalisation as simple growth in numbers travelling.

Exemplifying the differentiated rates of growth is simple. US enrolments stagnated for a decade following the attacks on the twin towers in 2001 but enrolments grew rapidly between 2009/10 and 2014/15.

Table 1 – US International Student Enrolment Trends 1945-2015

Source: Institute of International Education (IIE), “International Student Enrollment Trends, 1948/49-2014/15,” Open Doors Report on International Educational Exchange (Washington, DC: IIE, 2015), available online.

By contrast global mobility saw remarkable growth worldwide from 2000 to 2010 but flattened out thereafter. Table 2 using OECD data illustrates this point. The US appeared to be catching up but must have been doing so at the expense of some other providers.

Table 2 – OECD – Growth in Students Studying Outside Country of Residency

Source: OECD Education at a Glance 2017: OECD Indicators Figure C4.a

What these graphs don’t capture is the retrenchment in Australia from 2010 to 2013 followed by rapid growth thereafter, the acceleration of enrolments in Canada from 2013, or the growth in other providers from non-traditional destination countries. At a more granular level there have been institutional winners and losers including some who have shown healthy growth even as their country has plateaued.

Perhaps Altbach and de Wit’s gloom is partly based on unrealistic expectations. Altbach, writing with Bassett, in Foreign Policy magazine (The Brain Trade, Foreign Policy, Washington DC pp 30-31, Sept-Oct 2004) suggested there would be 8 million globally mobile students by 2025. It was a prediction that found its way into OECD publications but appeared to have little or no data-based foundation. I explore this in more detail in an earlier blog.

A Thousand Cuts Rather Than A Fatal Blow

The current struggles of the UK and US are cumulative rather than, as suggested, wholly or even mainly due to short term factors such as Trump and Brexit. Government policies have an impact but are seldom the only factor and some well organised institutions have significantly outperformed their national sector. Overall , a resurgent Australia, a dynamic Canada and an increasingly assured Europe have taken increasing student numbers as overall growth has slowed. Even in the current year the January 2018 statistics show an 11% rise in applications to the UK through UCAS – despite Brexit coming closer by the day.

It is also possible that many in the US and UK were too slow to recognise or react to foreseeable market changes. The surge of Saudi students slowing to a trickle was predictable, Indian students found more welcoming and lower cost options, and declining oil prices damaged Science without Borders and other Government schemes. Greed in escalating the cost of study, lack of differentiation and insufficient investment in brand building compounded these problems.

Course Delivery In English – Carry On Regardless Or Ripe For Revolution?

Altbach and de Wit seem concerned about the future of English-language delivery. They suggest a growing backlash against delivering courses in English citing comments from the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany and Italy. While nobody doubts the sincerity of academics (I am less sure about politicians) who value tuition in local languages for cultural and social reasons the future of teaching in English is likely to continue to be propelled by market forces.

Study Portals reported in 2017 that in 19 European Higher Education Area countries there were 2,900 Bachelors Degrees taught in English. Globally, they reported in February 2016 that there were almost 8,000 courses being taught in English by leading universities in non-English speaking countries. For better or worse this growth was a response to the demands of the international market and the signs are that there is more to come.

Xiamen University opened the first overseas Chinese university campus, in Malaysia in 2017, and it is committed to teaching predominantly in English. There is extraordinary availability of English-language MOOCS (75% of the total in 2015 according to Class Central) and other online courses from international universities. Longer-term a $200 million fund established this week for opening and acquiring Chinese and English bilingual preschools in China is one signal of where the smart money is going.

Will TNE stand for Totally Negligible Expansion?

Altbach and de Wit also conclude – ‘Overall, it is possible that the halcyon days of growth in branch campuses, educational hubs, franchise operations and other forms of transnational education are over.’ They mention Groningen’s decision not to proceed with a branch campus in China but history of universities considering branch campuses is long on false starts and there is no doubt that remote operations are not for the faint-hearted. It is equally notable that as Groningen got cold feet the University of Liverpool announced a second campus with Xi’an Jiaotong University. It is expected to open in 2020 and grow to over 6,000 students by 2025.

Looking further afield universities from 12 different countries operate campuses in higher education “free zones” in Dubai. In 2016 those branch campuses and local institutions numbered 62 with a combined enrolment of 60,300 students, including 33,600 foreign nationals. For the future there are more than 550 English-medium K-12 international schools across the UAE with roughly 550,000 students aged between 3 and 18 in English-medium international schools.

Universities are, quite rightly, learning lessons from failed attempts at TNE but this is likely to mean that future developments are more sustainable. In terms of an internationalisation mindset it will be important to think creatively about the delivery channels, including online, that are available and how they might be creatively aligned in new ways.

A NEW WORLD ORDER

Altbach and de Wit comments regarding non-western higher education are disappointing. At best they lack generosity and, at worst, underestimate the role that these countries will play in a new era of internationalisation. They say China is considered ‘academically closed’ and ‘not the first choice for students’. India ‘lacks relevant infrastructure…struggles to shape its academic structure’. South Africa, Brazil and Russia get similar short shrift.

All higher education systems have challenges and difficulties but there is enormous ambition and significant leaps in quality and investment in many countries. And their ambitions are clear.


Source: ICEF Monitor and The PIE

In terms of desirability it is worth noting that in 2013 China was not in the top ten of receiving countries for students from Africa. In 2017, according to US News, it had overtaken the US and UK and was second only to France. The Times of India reported in 2018 that China had outstripped the UK in student enrolments from India. While Western students may not have a history of travelling overseas in large numbers to study but it seems reasonable to believe that as the world economy realigns there may be significant motivation for them to consider the options.

Internationalisation – Alive And Well But Different

The brute facts for the entire sector are that global demographics are changing and there is a realignment of economic and intellectual power between traditional receiving and sending countries. Technology has brought considerably more power into the hands of students and parents (as well as their advisors) in assessing their options. Where information is freely available and supply exceeds demand a strong value proposition, demonstrable quality, and relevance to customer needs are vital.

In the new world of internationalisation some thematic developments seem likely:
i) Distribution of international students and motivation of providers will change. As countries exceed their volume targets ahead of schedule they may slow growth to take a quality premium. Other providers, including non-traditional destinations, will seize the opportunities this creates.
ii) Power will increasingly lie with students and their advisers. Institutions that believe they merely have to ‘build it and they will come’ will be disappointed. Those who are responsive, flexible and delivering what the market wants will prosper.
iii) The propensity of students to break with tradition and travel west to east in larger numbers will increase. This may, over time, help to embed ‘internationalisation’ as a global phenomenon.
iv) Regional hubs will thrive and provide relatively low cost/risk entry channels for new competitors while branch campuses may eventually grow sufficiently powerful to become ‘partner’ institutions rather than subsidiaries.
v) Online delivery will present new and exciting opportunities for collaboration between institutions as well as bringing lower cost options to students.
vi) The notion of a student travelling abroad for four years to complete an undergraduate degree may become seen as antiquated. For many years institutions have been prepared to deliver in discrete components where a year or two in-country leads to a period overseas. The potential for staging posts involving all or some of distance learning, a regional hub, and a ‘sandwich’ or final year on the other side of the world seem possible.

Internationalisation in such a dynamic and competitive future requires an enlightened approach to accreditation and collaboration as well as a commitment to delivering what the student needs. There will be substantial rewards for those who show creativity and courage in finding and implementing solutions. Those who cling to the old ways or move too slowly will find their horizons substantially shortened.

China – Pigs in Pythons, Geese Laying Golden Eggs and the Sea Turtles

As we enter the Year of the Dog many international recruiters and university bosses will be anxious to know whether Chinese students will continue to follow the call to the traditional receiving countries.  The period after Chinese New Year usually signals the quickening of pace in the recruitment cycle but may bring a summer of sluggish, difficult dog days for conversion. Some may even wonder how things might change by the time of the next Dog Year in 2030.

It is no secret that China has been the rocket fuel driving international student enrolments for the past fifteen years. The statistics show that US and UK enrolments continue to become increasingly dependent. And while the Canadian beaver may be popular and industrious, and the Australian kangaroo is bounding ahead, they look increasingly vulnerable to any changes in the market dynamics.

Table 1 – % of Chinese Students in Key Receiving Countries

NB: Gathering data that is matched in terms of definitions and timescales is problematic. The general point regarding concentration of students is clear but the sources are shown for clarity.

The demographics of China do not seem particularly helpful. The pig has passed through the python in terms of the bulge in University-age students. There are 32million fewer Chinese aged 20-24 than there were five years ago. And in another five years there will be 18million fewer than today. Numbers stabilise and then begin to grow slowly but by 2029 remain below 2017 levels.

Table 2 – China DemographicsIt would be fair to argue that 76million people is still a very big audience to aim at if you are a skilled recruiter prepared to travel around second, third and fourth tier cities (handy definition at http://multimedia.scmp.com/2016/cities/ ) as the move to urban areas continues.

There is also the lure that the Chinese middle-class is growing rapidly. Surely the wealthy middle-class is the goose that will lay sufficient golden eggs to more than make up for the fall in population?  Well, maybe, but the concept of a ‘middle class’ seems quite slippery.

In 2016 McKinsey were reporting that, 54% of China’s urban households will be classified as “upper middle” class by 2022. Upper middle class sounds pretty well-off but is measured by McKinsey as household income of $16,000 to $34,000 a year. Just for comparison, the U.S. Census Bureau reported in September 2017 that real median household income in the US was $59,039 in 2016. If you have to pay tuition fees and accommodation in dollars relativity becomes reality.

To give this some further context Table 3 (below) shows the IMF and World Bank comparators on GDP per capita. The Geary-Khamis measure is an ‘international dollar’ that allows a comparison between countries allowing for local cost of living etc. The disparity between the US, UK and China on this measure seems stark.

Table 3 – Comparable GDP Per Capita (Geary-Khamis dollars)

IMF (2017) World Bank (2016)
USA                  59,495           57,467
UK                    43,620           42,609
China               16,624           15,535

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

Average wage growth in China looks pretty impressive. Trading Economics/MOHRSS statistics show strong growth.  But a wage of CNY67569 is worth $10,643 in February 2018.

Table 4 – Growth in China Wages

The real question may be whether the burgeoning middle class will secure enough of the growing wealth of the country or whether the distribution of wealth will increasingly be skewed to a super-rich cohort. The New York Times in 2014 reflected on Professor Thomas Piketty’s book Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Critically, the author notes ‘…income from wealth usually grows faster than wages. As returns from capital are reinvested, inherited wealth will grow faster than the economy, concentrating more and more into the hands of few.’

Table 5 (below) suggests that a key question regarding the distribution of wealth to the Chinese middle class may rest on the extent to which China is more like France than the US and Britain.

Table 5 – Share of Total Income Change in Five Countries

Source: Capital in the 21st Century, Thomas Piketty

It may be, of course, that the growth in wealth is such that it will overcome the decline in demographics and the distribution of income hurdles. But a third challenge is how supply matches against demand in global higher education.  In this respect developments in China (as well as other countries in Asia) are likely to bring serious and sustainable competition to traditional providers.

A full analysis is beyond the scope of this blog but recent reports give some sense of the direction of travel as far as capacity, quality and value are concerned:

i) Universities in China have built capacity at a furious rate and as Establishing A Presence in China notes notes ‘at current rates….there will be a university seat for every child in China by 2030’. (OBHE quoted in THE)
ii) Xiamen University opened its first overseas campus, the first Chinese university to do so, in the Malaysian state of Selangor in September 2015. The primary tuition language is English. The campus intends to split its students body equally between Chinese, Malaysian and other nationalities.
iii) The Asian Universities Alliance, launched in April 2017 will boost Asia’s influence on the global higher education stage as well as supporting regional student mobility. Founding members span 14 countries and include Tsinghua University, Peking University, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
iv) Government investment in Chinese academic research is significant and quality has moved ahead quickly. An example, noted by the White House and reported in the Washington Post (October 2016), gives context in terms of research into artificial intelligence.

Table 6 – Journal Articles Mentioning Deep Learning

vi) The Double First Class Project is reportedly allocating 40 billion RMB ($6.04 billion USD) to a comprehensive project to bring 42 Chinese universities and courses at another 95 Chinese institutions to a “world-class level”.

The move towards a powerful higher education sector capable of serving its own people as well as many other international students seems well established. But, as my economics teacher at school used to tell the class – all decisions are economic. She was in a relationship at the time with the person who became my politics lecturer at College who would tell us – all decisions are political. Education is often just a side show.

In that regard it’s worth considering the initiative commonly known as ‘One Belt One Road’. As one of the largest infrastructure and investment project in history it reportedly covers more than 68 countries, equivalent to 65% of the world’s population and 40% of the global GDP. The extension of soft power through hard cash may become critical in determining the long-term movement of students around the globe.

A self-sufficient China at the heart of a global network will become an even bigger attraction for business and, inevitably, for students drawn to a global economic superpower that is investing so heavily and making travel easier and cheaper. Many Western universities have already ensured that they are partnered with well-funded Chinese institutions and despite the odd wavering over academic freedom we have reached a point of no return. It seems likely that there will be a genuine tipping point where the long-established flow from east to west will reverse.  The haigui, or sea turtles, may not need to travel (and certainly not in the volume of the last fifteen years), to secure the education they need for their lives and careers.

In that respect I find myself considering the words of Dr Monika Korte, the scientific director of the Niemegk Geomagnetic Observatory at GFZ Potsdam in Germany. She said, “It’s not a sudden flip, but a slow process, during which the field strength becomes weak, very probably the field becomes more complex and might show more than two poles for a while, and then builds up in strength and [aligns] in the opposite direction,”.

Dr Korte was talking to livescience.com in 2012 about the anticipated flipping of the Earth’s magnetic poles (What If Earth’s Magnetic Poles Flip? February 10, 2012). The article makes the point that the change is not instantaneous, that the period of change is difficult to manage and characterised by a significant weakening of the current magnetic field.  But eventually the needle points in a different direction. I suspect that is a pretty good metaphor for the Year of the Dog 2030.

8 million globally mobile students – a myth, based on a rounding error, sustained by wishful thinking?

When a number becomes repeated often enough as a fact it is often difficult to see past it. If it appears to be backed by credible sources like the OECD any sense of concern about authenticity diminishes. That is probably why the prediction of 8 million students studying outside their home country by 2025 entered the HE sector’s psyche. But the emergence of that number and its credibility as a prediction based on solid data is difficult to trace.

It’s important partly because of the scale of investment in the sector based on its potential for growth. Since 2010, over a billion dollars has been invested in private providers of pathway courses – examples include Providence, Leeds Equity, and Bridgepoint deals involving Study Group, INTO University Partnerships and Cambridge Education Group. Shorelight and Oxford International also become new entrants to the pathway landscape in 2013 and 2014 respectively.  The title image to this blog is a cropped slide from a presentation at a major, publicly-quoted, pathway provider’s April 2017 Investor Strategy Day.

Universities in traditional receiving countries have also built development plans around growing numbers of international students studying on campus. In the UK alone they are looking to increase international student fee income by nearly 30% in the three years to 2018/19 – a figure even HEFCE politely suggested shows ‘over optimism’. And the Daily Telegraph reported £5.3bn being sunk into purpose-built student accommodation in 2017, compared to £4.5bn the year before and a record £6bn in 2015.

The sector and those who write about it have often used the 8 million as a touchstone. In 2015 the University of Oxford’s International Strategy Office stated, ‘The global population of students who move to another country to study continues to rise…is likely to reach 8 million students per year by 2025.’ In May 2017 a NAFSA flier from one private provider stated confidently, ‘8M students to study outside their home countries by 2025’. The ‘2016 Top Markets Report on Education A Market Assessment Tool for U.S. Exporters’ from the U.S. Department of Commerce also stated that by 2025 ‘…eight million students will be globally mobile.’ 

Most authors quote the same source for the forecast – the 2012 OECD publication, AHELO Feasibility Study. But the OECD do not appear to have done their own data-crunching. The Study reads, ‘growth is projected to continue in the future to reach approximately 5.8m around 2020 (Bohm et al, 2004) and 8m by 2025 (Altbach and Bassett).’ (OECD, AHELO Feasibility Study Report Volume 2, p.24, 2012). The 5.8m reference is from the British Council’s 2020 Vision document (2004) which was underpinned by IDP’s Global Forecasting Model. 

The OECD reference to Altbach and Bassett is credited to an article called ‘The Brain Trade’, in a 2004 edition of the publication, Foreign Policy. In this relatively brief article the authors write, ‘a recent Australian study estimates that the total number of international students will increase to 8 million by 2025’. (The Brain Trade, Foreign Policy, Washington DC pp 30-31, Sept-Oct 2004). That would seem to rule out Altbach and Bassett as the original source although the article does not provide a citation to follow.

In Trends in Global Higher Education: Tracking an Academic Revolution (Altbach et al) for the 2009 UNESCO World Conference on Higher Education the claim is of an even greater acceleration in growth. Page 7 of the full document reads, ‘More than 2.5 million students are studying outside of their home countries. Estimates predict 8 million international students by 2020.’  Confusingly, the Executive Summary settles (on page vi) for saying, ‘Estimates predict the rise to 7 million international students by 2020.’

Neither the source of the 8 million or the 7 million are articulated but the source of the ‘Australian study’ seems clear.  Altbach, on page 25 of the main report, says ‘By 2025, research undertaken for IDP Pty Ltd in Australia suggests that roughly 7.2 million students may be pursuing some higher education internationally, an increase of 188 percent over the 2006 UNESCO estimate (Böhm, et al., 2002). The research in question is GLOBAL STUDENT MOBILITY 2025: Forecasts of the Global Demand for International Higher Education (Bohm, Davis, Meares and Pearce, 2002). But the question of how this relates to a prediction of 8 million globally mobile students remains unclear.

The answer may lie in a 2003 update of the IDP research. The executive summary (page 3) says that one key finding is that ‘global demand for international higher education is forecast to increase from over 2 million in 2003 to 7.6 million in 2025’.  It seems possible that the 7.6m was simply rounded up to 8m but the consequences are significant. In terms of financial outcomes 400,000 students equates, at a conservative estimate, to yearly fee income of more than $5bn dollars.

What is also striking is that, as noted in the British Council’s Vison 2020 report (2004) the IDP Global Forecasting Model, underpinning the 2003 research, was based upon the UNESCO 2001 World Education Report which relied largely on figures from 1996. Could it be that statements being made in 2017 about 8 million globally mobile students by 2025 are relying on a rounding error from a report using data that is 20 years old?

Table 1. Summary Graphic – How The 8 Million May Have Evolved

None of this is intended to undermine the work of the researchers involved. Forecasting is fiendishly difficult and those working in HE recognise the time delays and complexities which can make source material difficult to manage and interpret. We also recognise that circumstances can change rapidly and make even the most accomplished market analyst look foolish.

As we see in the most recent OECD graphic (below) the numbers enrolled overseas grew by only 400,000 from 2010 to 2015. This compared to growth of 1.2m additional students from 2005 to 2010. It seems likely that quality in country provision, and additional tuition options in English-language, as well as the growth of on-line delivery, is allowing students to study in ways that meet their career and personal aspirations at lower cost.

Table 2 : Education at a Glance 2017: OECD Indicators Figure C4.a. Long-term trends in the global number of students enrolled abroad (foreign students definition)

The extraordinary growth in the first decade of the 21st Century may become seen as the peak moment for increased international mobility. In 2012 the British Council predicted that mobility would plateau by 2020. More recently the British Council has predicted that that the annual growth for global outbound students is projected to average at 1.7 percent to 2027, dropping from 5.7 in the period 2000-2015. It is difficult at this point to see that those presentations which held Emo of Friesland arriving at Oxford in the 12th Century as the first in a wave of international students numbering 8m by 2025 will be correct.

Perhaps all this reflects the danger of International student enrolment being viewed as a cryptocurrency where the uninformed may make investments in the misunderstood for fear of missing a wave of future riches. As Warren Buffet memorably said, ‘when the tide goes out..you discover who’s been swimming naked’.

-Ends-