Author: alanpreece_1318421307

Live Music – Thrills, Spills and Unexpected Moments

With thanks to Paul Greatrix, Registrar at the University of Nottingham and a contemporary at UEA, for his blog on wonkhe.com , for a reminder of many nights at the magical Nick Rayns’ LCR at the University of East Anglia. For the uninitiated Nick was the extraordinary booker and maestro who picked talent and persuaded acts to the far-flung Norwich university campus.

Sadly departed but never forgotten Nick’s genius was a lifeline for thousands who enjoyed bands that, under normal circumstances, would have thought Norfolk’s capital was an outpost too far. Even after the A11 became a dual-carriageway it probably still is for everyone but Jools Holland who, apparently, likes to travel by bus and whose aunt lives in Norwich.

There are many who knew Nick better than I and are better-placed to pay tribute. The best I can think of to thank him is to write of three gigs he put on which provided memories to last a lifetime. There are lessons about community, channelling anger, and finding out unexpected things about people but mostly it’s about the glory of being at a live concert.

Elvis Costello is, in my view, one of the great songwriters of his generation and I have seen him once. It was at the LCR (which stood for Lower Common Room – very university) on 25 May 2005. I know the date because I was missing watching the Champions League Final, between Liverpool and AC Milan, to watch the gig. As I am a Manchester United fan it was little contest to trade seeing the arch enemy in a final for a concert featuring what was reputedly one of the finest bands in the world.

On that night, and the story is famous enough to be reported on Wikipedia, Elvis and the band were warming up while watching the first half (which is more warming up than Liverpool did as they went into half-time 3-0 down). But Liverpool scored three times in six minutes of the second half to make the score 3-3 at the end of normal time. Elvis and the band were transfixed by the game and were an hour late on stage.

What Wikipedia doesn’t tell us is that the LCR had become increasingly fractious. The town has a strong relationship with its own team and recognises partisan loyalty. But in the absence of an explanation for the band’s absence people realised what was happening backstage. The tension began to rise and the cursing about lack of professionalism increased.

When Elvis came on stage the match had gone to extra time. I think it is fair to say that the band was not at its best. They had either peaked early in their preparation, imbibed to thoroughly before appearing or remained nervous about the outcome of the game. Maybe all three but as I recall they were poor and out of sorts.

As a guitar nerd I had been impressed to see about 16 guitars on a rack before the gig but became increasingly irritated as Elvis switched from one the other and fiddled with tuning. The sound was harsh and the band was about as tight as well worn slipper. It is reasonable to add that Elvis is not a shrinking violet and in the face of the crowd’s dissatisfaction he gave as good as he got. Things were thrown, words were said – it was ugly and had every chance of getting uglier.

Then came one of those moments that make attending live gigs remind us how benevolent and uplifting the human spirit can be. A roadie scampered onto stage, crouched directly under Elvis and put his thumbs up. Liverpool had won the penalty shoot-out and were champions of Europe.
My memory of what happened next is that Elvis stopped the gig. He’s not the sort of guy that apologises but he reached out in the way that great communicators can. He knew that we knew what had happened and said something like – ‘we’ve never done this before but we are going to try it.’
The band broke into a version of the Liverpool FC hymn ‘You’ll Never Walk Alone’. The crowd, with extraordinary generosity and showing their shared love of the beautiful game, joined in. Even as a die-hard United supporter I joined in – there are moments when participating is the point, and the price, of being in the moment. Whatever the fire regulations of the time, lighters were lit and the audience swayed in a reasonable replica of the Kop on a Saturday afternoon. Just a wonderful moment of community and shared emotion.

Next on my list is Primal Scream in November 2006. I didn’t really know very much about the band and what I had heard made me think of the lead singer as a Mick Jagger wannabee who had delusions of grandeur. But the gig turned me around and that’s a good reason to be grateful because they can be interesting and spiky and challenging.

This time, in my research, I find that the Eastern Daily Press of 27 November has reinforced my recollection of the gig and its pivotal moment. The band had begun reasonably well but I didn’t find myself particularly moved by the standard overbearing rock noise that I was hearing. But then it all kicked off.

One of the crowd had been pretty vocal and hectoring of Bobby and ended up throwing the best part of a pint of beer over him. The singer exited the stage and his band continued playing for a minute or so but gradually shut down as it became clear he wasn’t reappearing anytime soon. I think the crowd was mixed – the beer thrower had been hustled out and we thought that an ex-Jesus and Mary Chain drummer from the mean city of Glasgow should be made of sterner stuff.

What happened next was that Bobby came back like a man on a mission. It was as if the affrontery of being forced to retreat had made him into the Terminator. And he was back with a vengeance. It became one of those rock, roll, acid-house, punk nights that live long in the memory. The sheer visceral thrill of being in a hall when the band and the audience become a single organism is one of the best reasons that live music is worth supporting.

There are a number of other LCR nights that spring to mind – I have reasonable story about Robert Plant – but the last for this blog shows that we might not know other people quite as well as we think. It was around 2001 and Joe Strummer was arriving with the Mescaleros. I am a totally unreconstructed fan of The Clash and had only seen them perform once so the chance to see Joe’s second coming was unmissable.

Standing at the back of the hall before the band came on I bumped into David Richardson, now Vice-Chancellor of the University and at the time a highly regarded academic in the School of Biological Sciences. I was, frankly, gob-smacked to learn that he had taken an extended leave of absence (the equivalent of dropping out) of university to follow The Clash on tour in earlier days. My hope is that all Vice-Chancellor’s have had those moments and allow them to influence their decisions about the lives of young people.

As the lights went down and the band came on stage we were both drawn, like fireflies to a flame, to the front of the hall. Joe came on stage and decided to make his way into the audience. There was a strange but wholly affirmative moment when dozens of adults were in the presence of someone who had touched their teenage lives with a positivity and a message that still burned bright.

Hands reached out to touch the writer, singer and polemicist who had told us it was a good thing to have a ‘bullshit detector’ and not to care or hear about ‘what the rich are doing’. As Julien Temple’s film reminds us, he encouraged us to accept that the future is unwritten and that our destiny is in our hands. I pogoed with the best that night and remain sad that Joe died so early. But I am grateful to have been there to show my regard and respect.

My other abiding memory of the night is the wonderful glee on the faces of the young musicians who made up the Mescaleros and were living the dream on stage with an icon. Music is live, it is about people and it is important. A good reminder to me that next Thursday I must go to the local Open Mic and applaud anyone who has the nerve to stand up and perform. I might even take my guitar…

LEFT, RIGHT, LEFT, RIGHT…BUT IT’S NOT WHAT DRIVES ME TO DISTRACTION

Seven months into the San Diego adventure and I am beginning to get comfortable with driving on the other side of the road. I refuse to be drawn into the right is wrong or left is right spiral – the jokes are very old and I simply look on the mental gymnastics involved as being like rubbing your head and patting your tummy at the same time. Obviously not something I would recommend while driving – unless it is a Bangkok or Beijing rush hour where the word ‘rush’ is a joke at the expense of the motorist.

I have driven for a long time and spent over thirty years in the UK doing thousands of miles and accumulating an undistinguished, and long expired, six points for two minor speeding offences. Both were on a Sunday before 9am with nothing on the road except me and the forces of the law. And 36mph on a 30mph dual-carriageway stretch was hardly either drag-racing or a challenge to the world land-speed record.

The officers involved were leather clad, motorcycle cops and used radar guns. Their stance, machismo and dark glasses suggested that it was a noon shoot out with a desperado in some lawless town rather than an overcast weekend morning with a slightly harassed middle-aged man in a provincial English town. But nobody is, or should be, above the law, so I paid my dues and took my three points (which is, at least, more than Arsenal have done in most matches this season).

My right hand/left hand sensibility has only let me down twice in San Diego and both times were in the first two weeks. Once as I was turning out of the drive onto the road and the second before 6am in the morning en-route to the airport. On both occasions the voice from the passenger seat said, “We drive on the right in my country, Englishman.” The tone of disbelief, scorn and reprimand was a reminder that, even after nearly 242 years, the time of coercion under the yoke of monarchical tyranny still rankles with some citizens.

What really paralyses me with fear is the rule here that allows you to turn right at a red light if there is no traffic coming along the road. It goes so far against the teaching of decades in the UK that I tentatively edge forward, pause, edge, pause, edge, until the honk of the queuing traffic behind forces me into action. I swing the wheel hastily and screech the tires while offering an apologetic wave to nobody in particular.

After turning I feel all the sensations that accompany an English person who is walking through ‘Nothing to Declare’ at customs and wondering if they accidentally packed three kilos of cocaine and a dead goat in their suitcase. I should confirm that I owe that description to an internet meme – it is so accurate as to be equally perfect for the feeling of having driven through a red light. I doubt I will ever get over my anxiety on this one.

What is even more troubling is that when the red light goes green the pedestrian crossing to the right goes green to signal that pedestrians can walk. It is totally counter-intuitive because just as you get the green light to go the pedestrians have the right of way on the road you want to take. And given the number of walking/texting Darwin award contestants you are never sure if they are about to walk or telling Aunt Lucy what they want for dinner.

Again, I edge forward, stop, try to catch the eye of the texting/dawdling pedestrian. Edge forward a little more, wave my hand at them to elicit a response, but all to no avail. And then the inevitable tooting and honking from behind as my indecision arouses the worst instincts in fellow drivers. It’s all pretty trying.

And for any Englishman of a certain age the four-way stop is an invention wholly intended to challenge our sense of fairness, civility, and goodwill to all people. This is a country where cities are largely built on a grid-system so there are lots of what people in the old country call ‘crossroads’. But there also seems to be a prohibition on traffic lights so each of the four roads has a single white line with the word ‘Stop’ on it – and people are meant to take their turn.

But it’s like the mind-games faced in a busy barbers’ shop without a booking system – was the guy with the AC-DC t-shirt here before you? And will he beat you up if you take his turn? Did the old geezer with the whippet sneak in without you seeing? Is it fair to go in front of someone who looks like they only have enough hair for a ‘pensioner’s special price’? And is the bloke with the youngster reserving space for both of them? Is that reasonable and will they want to go concurrently or consecutively?

Heaven help you if you feel that someone has taken your place in the queue because there is only so much loud tutting you can do before people wonder if you have dentures that are slipping. I have always thought that barber’s should adopt a ticket system akin to those at the delicatessen counters of busy supermarkets. Even better might be the opportunity to buy your cheese and ham at the same place as you have a hair cut – could be a world-beater for the ASDA/Sainsbury merger if my old work-mate and Sainsbury CEO Mike Coupe really wants to ‘be in the money’.

All that having been said, my engagement with every four-way stop is a little like a gentleman’s excuse me at a grand ball where I have misplaced my dance card. Imagine that my turn to go is the lady I want to dance with.  I sit with a look of longing at her beauty but few expectations about it being my turn as others assert their option to have a quick rumba, waltz or, more appropriately, American Smooth.

First is the big, bearded guy (and it IS always a man) with his cap on backwards who drives a truck the size of Texas and takes his turn, whether it’s his turn or not, at the intersection. Then comes the young buck with music blaring out of the open windows, who is on the phone and has the sense of right that only the young, rich or with military-grade hardware in the boot (or trunk to US readers) are entitled too. After that is the grey-haired, short-sighted older person who has decided that stopping is a recipe for disaster because of the state of the car’s brakes and the possibility it may never start up again.

Surely, it’s my turn next? But then there are Mom and Pop and a people-carrier full of young sprogs on their way to the Zoo and by the time they are through it’s a battle for supremacy between the Uber/Lyft (I believe they all work for both companies) driver in a hurry and the harassed US Postal Service van on an Amazon-inspired mission to deliver 56 packages over a 100-mile radius in the next half-hour.

I wave them all through and smile that peculiar English smile that reflects decades of inhibition, fortitude and, most especially, guilt for things that happened years before we were born. It’s definitely my turn next because there are no more cars. But then I face the other certainty of a drive in the sunshine in San Diego – people on foot.

A dog-walker with seven assorted dogs – some of highest pedigree, some rescue mutts of dubious extraction – all very hairy and quite literally barking mad. Then a jogger whose best 5km time is long-gone and who manages to slow down to cross the road secure in the knowledge that no California driver will assail their pedestrian rights. And, of course, a cute group of school-children with peaked caps and rucksacks who only pause for several minutes mid-crossing to apply more sun-cream and have a drink to rehydrate.

Just as the two and four legged have passed and my foot is coming off the brake I face the final, and relatively new road-challenge. Whizzing through the four-way, with the sense of entitlement known throughout the world come the cyclists on the dayglo coloured, rent by the hour bikes and close behind the motorised Bird scooters. It is like the chase scene in Mad Max Beyond Pleasure Dome but a lot slower and with no death, destruction or mutants and the certainty that no fossil fuel was harmed in making the wheels go round.

When all is said and done it’s an adventure but with music in the car, air-conditioning and time on my hands I can think of worse ways to spend time. And I quite like being polite and cautious on the road after years of hustling around the country for work and time-tight school pick-ups. As Charlie Tebbutt used to say as he drove us to new business pitches during my time running the PR division of Charles Walls, “Better to be fifteen minutes late in this world than fifty years early in the next.”

GETTING TO GRIPS WITH PATHWAYS – A THORNY SUBJECT?

After looking at the broader picture on winners and losers in HE recruitment I’ve focused on a small number of high profile university partnerships to give some texture about those with pathway providers. Diving into the detail published by universities gives some insight as to whether pathway provision is delivering a stable stream and enhancing direct recruitment through global brand-building. Comparisons against the national picture indicate whether they are doing better than the sector overall.

Detailed breakdown of pathway volumes and progression rates are usually deemed commercially confidential and are rarely matters of public record. As a proxy I have looked at overall international student enrolment for the institutions involved as one would expect a thriving pathway of any size to provide a solid underpinning for broader recruitment efforts. Where possible I have supplemented this with Quality Assurance Agency for Higher Education (QAA) or University Annual Report data (available through the BUFDG site.

The examples I have chosen show sharply different outcomes at the university level.  The underlying detail from supplementary sources suggests that the pathway is a contributing factor to those outcomes.  In a broader context some institutions have done better than average and some not as well.

While the detail is UK related there is little reason to believe that the same isn’t true of the US and I’m doing some more work on that hypothesis for a later blog.

Three Big Players and Partners
Institutions are never wholly comparable but the universities of Newcastle, Liverpool and Sheffield are all large, metropolitan, Russell Group universities with substantial global ambitions. In the Times League Table 2018 Newcastle is 26th, Liverpool is 42nd and Sheffield is 21st. Newcastle and Liverpool have partnered with INTO and Kaplan respectively since 2007. Liverpool recently extended for another 15 years while Newcastle opened a new London campus with INTO in 2015 and are also in for the long haul. Sheffield was with Kaplan but switched to Study Group from September 2015.

Information published in University Annual Reports on overall international student enrolments in the five years from 2012/13 to 2016/17 suggests that Liverpool have, to date, weathered the headwinds facing the UK better than Sheffield or Newcastle.   Source: University Annual Reports and Financial Statements 2012/13 to 2016/17

The university financial statements suggests that any changes to fees have not been sufficient to make up enrolment shortfalls. The fee income reflects the down-turn in student numbers for Sheffield and Liverpool in the 2016/17 year but also suggests weakness for Newcastle over the past two years.
Source: University Annual Reports and Financial Statements 2012/13 to 2016/17

To provide a comparative performance for the universities I have used HESA data for all international enrolments (all levels, full-time and part-time) in the 129 universities in the 2018 Times League Table. This is a measure which should include students enrolling across the whole year and should account for pathway progression from all intakes.  It usually differs from the University Annual Report enrolment figures which are generally taken from a count in December of the academic year.  I review the complexity of the broader HESA data in an earlier blog.

All the universities outperformed the average in the first two years under review. Liverpool and Sheffield achieved this between 2014/15 and 2015/16. Liverpool continued to outperform the sector from 2015/16 to 2016/17.
Source: HESA

Understanding The Pathway Performance
There is some insight into the changes at the pathways for Liverpool and Sheffield through the Quality Assurance Agency reports. For INTO Newcastle there has been no similar educational oversight although my understanding is that the changing visa situation will mean that ISI will provide oversight in the future which may lift the veil. My observations below are drawn from published material including university annual reports.

Newcastle and INTO
The University notes in its 2016/17 Annual Report that the enrolments at INTO Newcastle ‘had a disappointing year with a 7% reduction in student volumes’ which was comparable to the University’s direct recruitment decline. As a 50/50 joint venture partner the University also reports on its share of joint venture income and surplus/deficit. For completeness I have shown both the Newcastle-based and London-based operations but note that the latter has substantial undergraduate and postgraduate intakes in addition to pathways.
Source: University of Newcastle Annual Reports 2012/13 to 2016/17

The London joint venture is still in start up mode and student numbers are reported as having grown from 24 in year one to 184 full time and 20 part-time students in year two. The income and operating surplus/deficit are reported as:
Source: University of Newcastle Annual Reports 2014/15 to 2016/17

Liverpool and Kaplan
What is most striking about reviewing performance through the lens of the University Annual Reports is that it can reflect a level of engagement and shared commitment – or in some cases not. On page three of the 2016/17 Liverpool University report the Vice Chancellor reflects on the long-standing relationship, the renewal agreement for the next 15 years and the investment in new facilities for the pathway. The report notes that the partnerships with both Kaplan and Laureate International ‘are vital to the University’s international outlook and global ambitions.’

The Annual Report notes that Kaplan’s International College opened in 2007 with 146 students and has seen 6,500 students study at the College, with 20% of the institution’s international recruitment achieved via its pathways. Future investment includes construction of a new, 47,000 square foot, 13-storey college building due to open in 2019.

A key determinant of a successful pathway relationship is the extent to which the University partner embraces the strengths of the private provider and clears roadblocks to innovation and recruitment. Both parties are undermined if the University does not engage productively at both a senior and operational level. The 2016 QAA Report for Kaplan International College at Liverpool notes ‘The close working relationship with the partner university, which enables highly effective and regular processes for developing, monitoring and reviewing of programmes’.

Sheffield and Study Group
Sheffield International College was first established by Kaplan with the University in 2006. In 2010/11 it had over 1100 students and this number had ‘grown’ by 2013 despite no new programmes being introduced (QAA Reports 2012 and 2013). Over a period from March 2014 to September 2015 there was a transition to Study Group.

The November 2016 QAA Review indicates that 933 students were in the Centre and the next report in October 2017 says that ‘student numbers fell by around 12 per cent between 2015-16 and 2016-17’. On the upside it was noted that 7 per cent more students entering programmes at USIC being eligible for progression to the University. The timing of the QAA review makes it difficult to draw firm conclusions about full-year recruitment.

It’s still early days in the partnership and the whisper in the sector is that the University protected its commercial interests in the event of any performance issues – perhaps a sign that universities are becoming more commercially minded. The PIE noted in August 2017 that ‘Providence Equity Partners, which owns higher education provider Study Group, is reportedly preparing to sell the company for £700m’  so there is a lot at stake as the company manages the expectations of its large stable of partners. Interesting times as the UK itself comes under relentless market competition from Canada , Europe, Australia and the emerging destinations in Asia.

Closing Thoughts
Nobody who is looking from outside can full understand the dynamics of a relationship between University and pathway provider. Anyone who has been at the sharp end knows that personalities, department politics and academic apathy are all facts of life as is, from time to time, a revolving door of senior decision makers. An initial meeting of minds at the highest level is usually not enough for sustained success so the working relationships need to become rapidly embedded.

What is for sure is that the chances of maximising performance are vastly enhanced by realistic expectations, responsiveness to market and action on shared commitments. Universities need to see the pathway as being fundamental to their success and treat the provider as an equal partner with important skills. Providers need to be honest about what they can deliver and manage how their portfolio is balanced to meet targets and business plans.

And perhaps, given the age of the pathway model and the way the market is changing it is time to consider whether further innovation is needed. Over the years I have heard several major pathway players define their approach as ‘disruptive’ or ‘transformational’ but it is difficult to see how pathways are any different now to when they were introduced.

Notes and Corrections

Comments are always welcome and I think it is a good thing to note any corrections or amendments to the text.

30 April 2018 10.05amPDT – amendment to correct ‘Newcastle and Liverpool have partnered with Kaplan and INTO respectively..’. Correction to clarify that INTO partner with Newcastle and Kaplan partner with Liverpool.

PATHWAY, DEAD END OR TIME FOR A U-TURN?

August 2018 will be the fifth anniversary of Shorelight’s first partner, Bath Spa University in the UK, being announced with suggestions that the university would ‘see its overseas intake swell to around 2,000 students over the next four years.’. The four years would run from 2015/16 to 2018/19.

It seemed a good moment to look at the pathway market and what happens when relationships don’t  work out.  This is partly because we may be entering a period where the pathway sector has matured and circumstances make it ripe for realignment.  The stakes are high on all sides and the factors are particularly relevant to the UK and US where growth in pathways has been rapid and international student recruitment has been under substantial pressure.

As finances tighten university management is under more scrutiny and is likely to demand more in terms of targets and delivery from partners.  The consequences of a failing pathway are becoming increasingly difficult to hide as direct recruitment gets harder.  Providers have their own problems with unprecedented global pressures and ubiquitous competition.  Some may be reaching a point where optimising their portfolio is more important than simply adding or maintaining capacity.

In the UK a number of institutions have been following the University of Sheffield to see how the switch from one major private provider to another might work.  Loyalties are under pressure as university leaders who signed the deal move on and some pathway providers look to change hands after the glut of private equity investment from 2010 to 2014.  Pressure to perform has never been greater.

So, when a pathway becomes a dead-end there is every incentive for one or other party to make a U-turn.  Or, as Warren Buffett is quoted as saying, “Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be a more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks.”  And it doesn’t really matter if it’s a long-term contract (where remedies for under-performance are usually written in) or time for a tender after five years.

IT HASN’T ALWAYS ENDED WELL IN THE PAST
There is, of course, precedent and although closures can be hard to trace I have listed below those that I have uncovered in my research.  New partnerships are usually heralded with a fanfare and people smiling as they shake hands on a deal done. Unsurprisingly, a veil is drawn over partnerships that end and those that are public are usually dressed in anodyne media responses.

For both universities and providers that is unfortunate.  Considering and addressing failure is a good way of learning and often more informative than the bright, shiny case studies which are so popular as sales tools.  In my time with two leading universities with private providers and as COO and CEO with two providers I saw many factors that can make or break a partnership.  These are worth sharing.

I make no comment on the reasons for the ending of the relationships noted (but have referenced reports where available). Neither do I claim that this list is exhaustive and I would be interested in any other examples.  For organisations contemplating partnerships an open and honest discussion with those who have tried and moved on is probably worth as much as hours of expensive contract development.

Study Group
i) Stirling University (Opened 2007- Closed 2013) Source: QAA

INTO
i) University of East Anglia London (2010-2014) Source: THE)                                                                         ii) University of Stirling London (Opened 2014 – Closed 2015?)                                                                                     iii) St George’s University (Opened 2012 – closed 2017 Source: St George’s University Annual Report

Oxford International
i) Canterbury Christchurch (Opened 2015 – closed 2017?)

Kaplan
i) University of Utah (Opened 2010 – Closed?) ii)University of Sheffield (Opened 2006 – Closed 2015)

Navitas
i) Western Kentucky University (Opened 2010 – Closed 2016)
ii) Edinburgh Napier (Opened 2011 – due to close 2018)

PRIVATE PATHWAYS MAY NOT BE ACCESSIBLE OR GUARANTEE SUCCESS
UK universities with the greatest decline in overall international enrolments in the past five years often have no pathway partner or are relatively late to the party. Several of the non-aligned universities here have been actively seeking providers but there is, inevitably, caution from providers about taking on institutions that do not have underlying strength.

It remains to be seen whether some of the new partnerships can materially alter the trajectory of underperforming universities.  Sector sources suggest that Oxford International and the University of Bedfordshire are parting company and the provider is not currently listing this university on its website.

Table 1 – UK Universities With Greatest Decline In International Enrolments 2012/13 to 2016/17

Source: HESA (enrolments), QAA and University/Company websites

And that brings me full circle to Bath Spa and Shorelight. HESA data (supported by the University’s Annual Report narrative) showed strong growth in international recruitment from 2012/13 to 2014/15. In the first full year of the partnership with Shorelight (2015/16) there was a weakening of growth which was followed by declining international enrolments in 2016/17.  There is some way to go for the university to reach the anticipated 2,000 by 2018/19.

Table 2 – Bath Spa University International Enrolments 2012-13 to 2016/17

Source: HESA

Perhaps more troubling is that in December 2017 the THE reported that ‘figures available on (sic) Companies House show that Bath Spa Global – an international pathway college venture set up in 2014 in partnership with US firm Shorelight Education – has lost about £1.4 million in the three years to July 2016, while its parent company Bath Spa U has lost about £736,000 over the same period.’. The 2016/17 Financial Statement from Bath Spa showed international student income and numbers declining year on year and noted that the joint venture partnership, Bath Spa Global, ‘remains fragile’.  At the time of writing I can find no mention of Bath Spa University on Shorelight’s web-site and no current reference to Shorelight on the University’s site.

Winning And Losing In Global Recruitment

A lot is written about ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ in the race for international students. Putting some edges on that brings some surprises in terms of scale and the institutions in each camp. Between 2012/13 and 2016/17 the biggest eleven gainers in the UK ‘gained’ nearly 20,000 more international students while the eleven largest losers ‘lost’ approaching 19,000 students.

The outcomes show that mid-ranking, non-metropolitan, and less well-known universities can compete at the top table.  It is also clear that being part of an exclusive clique of universities is not, on its own, enough.  Good case studies abound for anyone wanting to grow enrolments in challenging times.

These conclusions are drawn from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data showing international (non-UK or Other European) students enrolled by institution between 2012/13 and 2016/17. It’s a public record, self-reported by universities, and is widely used so it is one way of keeping score. I reflect on some of the complexities in notes at the end of the blog (and look forward to any corrections or challenges). When I worked for universities the time honoured response from planning offices to questions about student numbers was ‘how many would you like us to have’!

To give context HESA reported non-European enrolments between 2012/13 and 2016/17 growing from 299,490 students to 307,540 with a high point of 312,010 in 2014/15 (https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/sfr247/figure-8).  This is a total for all levels, years and modes of study.

WINNERS ARE NOT ALWAYS AS EXPECTED
Unsurprisingly large, well-established, metropolitan universities with strong rankings are well represented in the top eleven gainers.  I was told that when  one Russell Group university began to consider its brand management its proud response to questions about key selling points was ‘we’re big and we’re old’. For some that may still be enough but they are far from the only winners.

At number eleven, De Montfort University (DMU) has shown that clear strategic direction, strong engagement at senior levels and powerful execution can make a substantial difference. As CEO of their pathway partner, Oxford International Education Group, I saw at close hand the strong commitment to internationalisation and collaborative working. Their overall success reflects the drive of James Gardner, Pro Vice-Chancellor for International and Ben Browne, COO, under the leadership of Vice Chancellor, Prof Dominic Shellard.

Their partnership with Oxford International, established in 2013, has also played a part with integrated degrees and 94% progression rates in 2015-16 (QAA Educational Oversight, March 2017) boosting enrolments. A good lesson for any university with a private provider as partner is to be found in the strength of working relationships between Oxford International’s founder, David Brown, and former-Director of Global Sales, David Anthonisz, and senior university figures, including Gerard Moran, Director of Academic Partnerships.

Table 1 – Top Eleven Changes in International Enrolment by Headcount 2012-13 to 2016-17
Source: HESA tables 2012/13 to 2016/17 (see notes at end of blog)

BUT ABSOLUTE VOLUME IS NOT THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN
One would expect some of the biggest players to rack up the largest volume growth. But significant gains can also be made by universities with more modest starting points. The top five in terms of percentage growth over the period (with at least 2,000 international students in 2016/17) is a different way of considering potential. Table 2 has representation from England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland and demonstrate that major English cities are not the be all and end all.

Table 2: Top Five By Percentage Growth of International Students – 2012/13 to 2016/17 (with total student volume over 2,000 in 2016/17)

Source: HESA tables 2012/13 to 2016/17 (see notes at end of blog)

The performance of Queen’s under the guidance of James O’Kane, Registrar and COO, and Isabel Jennings, Director of Marketing, Recruitment, Communications and Internationalisation, has been outstanding. I worked alongside them to develop an international enrolment strategy from 2011 to early 2013 and again as COO at pathway partner, INTO, in 2015. There were significant challenges to overcome in terms of location, reputation, data, programs and processes but these results show the potential for a focused, well-executed, long-term strategy to pay dividends.

This chart does not include some smaller institutions with growth stories. Falmouth University grew from 125 to 280 and the University of the West of Scotland by a startling 164.5% (405 to 1055) over the period. Cumbria, Newman, York St John, University of the Arts London, Birmingham City, London South Bank, Westminster, and Brighton – all ranked below 100 in the 2018 Times league table – have also added students over the five years. Each will have a different strategy but under tough competitive conditions every additional student reflects thought, effort and delivery.

FOR EVERY RAY OF SUNSHINE A DROP OF RAIN MUST FALL
The universities that have seen their enrolments decline by the greatest percentage lost 18,875 students. Some have had specific difficulties, such as visa challenges. Most are in the lower half of most league tables.

It is possible that the closing gap between the fee value of an international student and a home/EU student may have encouraged some universities to rebalance their community. But it is difficult to believe that many of these institutions set out to lose international enrolments to this level.

Table 3 – Eleven Largest Negative Changes In International Enrolment by Headcount 2012-13 to 2016-17

Source: HESA tables 2012/13 to 2016/17 (see notes at end of blog)

The most surprising is Nottingham University which has a well-deserved recognition for its international reputation and reach. Its Annual Reports for the period suggest a much smaller decline in international students from 6887 in 2012/13 to 6809 in 2015/16. The purpose of this blog is to reflect the data as reported through HESA but changes in reporting may have contributed to the overall scale of the decline.

Nottingham’s 2017 annual report also notes, ‘The University plans for a significant expansion of international recruitment, underpinned by the international foundation year, have been re-assessed and deliverable yet challenging targets have been agreed.’ Kaplan have been selected to support them.

In percentage terms Chart 4 notes those in the top 30 in the Times League Table 2018 that appear to have gone backwards over the period.

Table 4 – Universities in Times Top 30 Showing Volume Declines from 2012/13 to 2016/17

Source: HESA tables 2012/13 to 2016/17 (see notes at end of blog)

What this can mean for a university is illustrated by Table 5 showing income from international student fees over the period for three of these universities.  While East Anglia’s and Essex’s declining income in 2016/17 is not calamitous it results from a declining student body and stagnation/low growth in fee levels. The University of Dundee has, from a lower base, been able to implement significant tuition fee increases.

Table 5 – International Student Fee Income (£000s) 2012/13 to 2016/17Source: University Financial Statements 2012/13 to 2016/17

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ‘THE DISCONTENTED’
Large institutions with strong rankings and good locations undoubtedly have some advantages in attracting international students. But less-well known, geographically challenged universities are achieving significant growth by adopting aggressive, well-planned and brilliantly executed strategies. Equally, it is true that even being well placed in the league tables, a big player with an established reputation, or part of the Russell Group ‘club’ does not guarantee growth.

I have long held the view that, as Oscar Wilde commented, ‘the world belongs to the discontented’. The challenge for ambitious universities is to maintain a sense of productive agitation for improvement in their approach to international recruitment. Constant attention to every facet of the pipeline is critical in a competitive environment as is a data-led approach and careful targeting of potential students with relevant programs of study.

NOTES
1. ‘HESA student figures include anyone enrolled for more than two weeks on a higher education (HE) course that is primarily based in the UK, unless they are an incoming exchange student, on sabbatical, writing-up or dormant.’ More detail at https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/students/whos-in-he
2.Individual HESA tables from 2012/13 to 2016/17 were used to compile data in a time series for all universities in the 2018 Times league table. Totals and percentage gains or losses were calculated from this.
3.HESA tables round data which leads to occasional abnormalities in totals but these are minor in context.
4. The largest institutions in the HESA tables not featuring in the 2018 Times league table are University of Wolverhampton, Cranfield and London Business School – these accounted for 3085 students in 2016/17.
4. This blog reflects the HESA tables as published. It is recognised that reporting errors or changes in reporting conventions may have occurred.
5. The numbers shown in University annual reports usually differ from the HESA data. There are a number of reasons, including timing of any ‘snapshot’ used for University purposes.

An Englishman Abroad Meets the Blacktree Barberia

A few months into my San Diego life I faced the inevitable. It was time to get a haircut and I was not about to travel 5,000 miles back to the UK for it. It was with a heavy heart that I realised I would have to find a new barber.

I remember my first ‘man’s’ haircut with mixed emotions – misery and shock. My father took me to the airforce barber in Germany and I was seduced by the term ‘crew-cut’. Back at the house there were tears – both mine and my mother’s. I spent the next few weeks being called ‘bog-brush’ at school as it grew back in an erratic and spiky mess.

But the experience taught me two things. Don’t cry in the barber’s chair – no matter how bad it looks at the time – it is not manly and you might end up with only half the head done. And also that my hair always grows back. I thank my paternal grandfather for the head of healthy, thickness that keeps my scalp warm and has never failed to sprout like a desert after the rain.

Since I was able to select my own barber I always chose one where there were no appointments and where conversation was kept to a minimum. English men of a certain age do not use the word hairdresser for someone whose skills with scissors, razor and comb are bought by the half hour. We pay for a formal ‘good morning’, a brief confirmation that ‘two up the back and sides and a short scissor cut on top’ is required and then absolute silence until the ordeal is over. Nobody said it was meant to be fun.

And once I find a barber who suits there is a shared bond of loyalty which is almost tribal. Fifteen years to the same shop in Leeds. Then several to my first in Norfolk until he had the nerve to retire at the age of 78 because he couldn’t stand up all day any more. My second in Norwich, opened at 6.30am on a Saturday for the market stall traders. I got to know him so well that I was in by 7am, out by 7.20am and would say as I left the shop ‘have a good day’.

I searched hard for a barber who matched up to these peerless standards. It’s always a bit of trial and error but I was pretty fazed by the Mexican lady who chatted away in Spanish throughout the process and said at the end, “You look so handsome”. I will be the judge of that Madam, were the words that formed in my head, but as I don’t speak Spanish I simply did what any English person would do and said ‘sorry’.

Yelp kept pointing me towards Thee Inglorious Blacktree Barberia. Five stars on all reviews to date but reviewers kept using words like ‘cool’ and saying that they were ‘stoked’. And then there was the name – I have always been slightly skittish about anything not called ‘Gentleman’s Barber Shop’. The fads for names like ‘Curl Up and Dye’, ‘Da Do, Do, Do’, and ‘Scissor Sisters’ – the last two might be song lyrics or groups for all I know – have passed me by.

I walked past the Barberia seven times and could not bring myself to cross the threshold. I was quite taken with the sign outside which read ‘If we can’t make you look good…..you’re ugly’. But it all looked so alien to me that I did not feel I had permission to enter.

Finally, I did the unthinkable and phoned to book an appointment. It was with great relief that I ended the call after three rings when nobody answered. But then my phone buzzed with a message – they had the audacity to want to know if I wanted an appointment. I had never spoken more than ten words at a time to a barber for the last forty years and here was one engaging with me electronically.

With my hair down over my collar I had little choice. Partly because one of my father’s favourite jokes when I was a teenager and grew my hair long was to stand next to me and, in his best parade ground voice, say, “Am I hurting you son?”. After a brief pause for hilarious, comic effect, he would continue, “I should be. I’m standing on your hair. GET IT CUT.”

Barberia is unlike any place I have ever had my hair cut before. When I walk in they ask me if I want a beer, a shot or a water. Even more startling is that they cut your hair with the chair facing away from the mirror. It’s feels strangely dangerous and exciting. Not that I would have ever stopped a barber mid-cut, even if he was scalping me. It’s just that I have become very used to seeing myself shorn whilst avoiding all eye contact with the person doing the shearing.

Instead we all watch a TV that is tuned to some free to air channel. This tends to mean cheap, repetitive programming. First time round I saw a programme about the San Diego state prison with no uplifting endings. And I found myself exchanging social commentary about the differences between the UK and the US with the ensemble of barbers and clients. Last time it was a programme about sharks with sub-titles.

And the sub-titles were necessary because from the start to the last the sound system played AC/DC so loud that my ears might have bled. All the while my barber was trying to persuade me to have my nose and ears waxed. I suspect he was trying to tell me that after a certain age that was necessary to become handsome. And he had a way of talking that cut through Angus Young, Brian Johnson, Bon Scott et al doing their very best to bring on premature deafness.

Eventually you do get turned around to face the mirror and see what has been done. It is a magnificent bit of theatre which is done with panache and pride. And I have to say that on every occasion so far it has been the best haircut I have ever had. So much so that I have even taken the advice to have ‘a little product’ in my hair. Another first for me as I adjust to the new world.

THE FUTURE OF INTERNATIONALISATION – MUCH MORE THAN A DEAD CAT BOUNCE

Altbach and de Wit’s suggestion, in University World News (23 February 2018), that ‘the era of higher education internationalisation…might either be finished or, at least, be on life support’ is troubling if true.  However, the examples chosen to support their case seem insufficient in number or weight for the prognosis given. There is, however, a need for ‘rethinking the entire international project of universities worldwide’ that recognises and embraces a new era of internationalisation.

Student Mobility – Slower Growth, Greater Choice

Higher education internationalisation over the past 25 years has been complex. Suggesting, as Altbach and de Wit do, that it ‘appears to have come to a rather abrupt end’ ignores that the undercurrents have always ebbed and flowed. Student mobility may be slowing but diversity of destination, quality of options and increasing student choice is as strong a signal of vibrant internationalisation as simple growth in numbers travelling.

Exemplifying the differentiated rates of growth is simple. US enrolments stagnated for a decade following the attacks on the twin towers in 2001 but enrolments grew rapidly between 2009/10 and 2014/15.

Table 1 – US International Student Enrolment Trends 1945-2015

Source: Institute of International Education (IIE), “International Student Enrollment Trends, 1948/49-2014/15,” Open Doors Report on International Educational Exchange (Washington, DC: IIE, 2015), available online.

By contrast global mobility saw remarkable growth worldwide from 2000 to 2010 but flattened out thereafter. Table 2 using OECD data illustrates this point. The US appeared to be catching up but must have been doing so at the expense of some other providers.

Table 2 – OECD – Growth in Students Studying Outside Country of Residency

Source: OECD Education at a Glance 2017: OECD Indicators Figure C4.a

What these graphs don’t capture is the retrenchment in Australia from 2010 to 2013 followed by rapid growth thereafter, the acceleration of enrolments in Canada from 2013, or the growth in other providers from non-traditional destination countries. At a more granular level there have been institutional winners and losers including some who have shown healthy growth even as their country has plateaued.

Perhaps Altbach and de Wit’s gloom is partly based on unrealistic expectations. Altbach, writing with Bassett, in Foreign Policy magazine (The Brain Trade, Foreign Policy, Washington DC pp 30-31, Sept-Oct 2004) suggested there would be 8 million globally mobile students by 2025. It was a prediction that found its way into OECD publications but appeared to have little or no data-based foundation. I explore this in more detail in an earlier blog.

A Thousand Cuts Rather Than A Fatal Blow

The current struggles of the UK and US are cumulative rather than, as suggested, wholly or even mainly due to short term factors such as Trump and Brexit. Government policies have an impact but are seldom the only factor and some well organised institutions have significantly outperformed their national sector. Overall , a resurgent Australia, a dynamic Canada and an increasingly assured Europe have taken increasing student numbers as overall growth has slowed. Even in the current year the January 2018 statistics show an 11% rise in applications to the UK through UCAS – despite Brexit coming closer by the day.

It is also possible that many in the US and UK were too slow to recognise or react to foreseeable market changes. The surge of Saudi students slowing to a trickle was predictable, Indian students found more welcoming and lower cost options, and declining oil prices damaged Science without Borders and other Government schemes. Greed in escalating the cost of study, lack of differentiation and insufficient investment in brand building compounded these problems.

Course Delivery In English – Carry On Regardless Or Ripe For Revolution?

Altbach and de Wit seem concerned about the future of English-language delivery. They suggest a growing backlash against delivering courses in English citing comments from the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany and Italy. While nobody doubts the sincerity of academics (I am less sure about politicians) who value tuition in local languages for cultural and social reasons the future of teaching in English is likely to continue to be propelled by market forces.

Study Portals reported in 2017 that in 19 European Higher Education Area countries there were 2,900 Bachelors Degrees taught in English. Globally, they reported in February 2016 that there were almost 8,000 courses being taught in English by leading universities in non-English speaking countries. For better or worse this growth was a response to the demands of the international market and the signs are that there is more to come.

Xiamen University opened the first overseas Chinese university campus, in Malaysia in 2017, and it is committed to teaching predominantly in English. There is extraordinary availability of English-language MOOCS (75% of the total in 2015 according to Class Central) and other online courses from international universities. Longer-term a $200 million fund established this week for opening and acquiring Chinese and English bilingual preschools in China is one signal of where the smart money is going.

Will TNE stand for Totally Negligible Expansion?

Altbach and de Wit also conclude – ‘Overall, it is possible that the halcyon days of growth in branch campuses, educational hubs, franchise operations and other forms of transnational education are over.’ They mention Groningen’s decision not to proceed with a branch campus in China but history of universities considering branch campuses is long on false starts and there is no doubt that remote operations are not for the faint-hearted. It is equally notable that as Groningen got cold feet the University of Liverpool announced a second campus with Xi’an Jiaotong University. It is expected to open in 2020 and grow to over 6,000 students by 2025.

Looking further afield universities from 12 different countries operate campuses in higher education “free zones” in Dubai. In 2016 those branch campuses and local institutions numbered 62 with a combined enrolment of 60,300 students, including 33,600 foreign nationals. For the future there are more than 550 English-medium K-12 international schools across the UAE with roughly 550,000 students aged between 3 and 18 in English-medium international schools.

Universities are, quite rightly, learning lessons from failed attempts at TNE but this is likely to mean that future developments are more sustainable. In terms of an internationalisation mindset it will be important to think creatively about the delivery channels, including online, that are available and how they might be creatively aligned in new ways.

A NEW WORLD ORDER

Altbach and de Wit comments regarding non-western higher education are disappointing. At best they lack generosity and, at worst, underestimate the role that these countries will play in a new era of internationalisation. They say China is considered ‘academically closed’ and ‘not the first choice for students’. India ‘lacks relevant infrastructure…struggles to shape its academic structure’. South Africa, Brazil and Russia get similar short shrift.

All higher education systems have challenges and difficulties but there is enormous ambition and significant leaps in quality and investment in many countries. And their ambitions are clear.


Source: ICEF Monitor and The PIE

In terms of desirability it is worth noting that in 2013 China was not in the top ten of receiving countries for students from Africa. In 2017, according to US News, it had overtaken the US and UK and was second only to France. The Times of India reported in 2018 that China had outstripped the UK in student enrolments from India. While Western students may not have a history of travelling overseas in large numbers to study but it seems reasonable to believe that as the world economy realigns there may be significant motivation for them to consider the options.

Internationalisation – Alive And Well But Different

The brute facts for the entire sector are that global demographics are changing and there is a realignment of economic and intellectual power between traditional receiving and sending countries. Technology has brought considerably more power into the hands of students and parents (as well as their advisors) in assessing their options. Where information is freely available and supply exceeds demand a strong value proposition, demonstrable quality, and relevance to customer needs are vital.

In the new world of internationalisation some thematic developments seem likely:
i) Distribution of international students and motivation of providers will change. As countries exceed their volume targets ahead of schedule they may slow growth to take a quality premium. Other providers, including non-traditional destinations, will seize the opportunities this creates.
ii) Power will increasingly lie with students and their advisers. Institutions that believe they merely have to ‘build it and they will come’ will be disappointed. Those who are responsive, flexible and delivering what the market wants will prosper.
iii) The propensity of students to break with tradition and travel west to east in larger numbers will increase. This may, over time, help to embed ‘internationalisation’ as a global phenomenon.
iv) Regional hubs will thrive and provide relatively low cost/risk entry channels for new competitors while branch campuses may eventually grow sufficiently powerful to become ‘partner’ institutions rather than subsidiaries.
v) Online delivery will present new and exciting opportunities for collaboration between institutions as well as bringing lower cost options to students.
vi) The notion of a student travelling abroad for four years to complete an undergraduate degree may become seen as antiquated. For many years institutions have been prepared to deliver in discrete components where a year or two in-country leads to a period overseas. The potential for staging posts involving all or some of distance learning, a regional hub, and a ‘sandwich’ or final year on the other side of the world seem possible.

Internationalisation in such a dynamic and competitive future requires an enlightened approach to accreditation and collaboration as well as a commitment to delivering what the student needs. There will be substantial rewards for those who show creativity and courage in finding and implementing solutions. Those who cling to the old ways or move too slowly will find their horizons substantially shortened.

COUNTRIES SEPARATED BY A COMMON PINT?

Moving to San Diego seemed to be one of the easier calls in life. Trading in the English winter for Californian sun was no hardship. And I had successfully managed a move from Essex to Yorkshire, arguably the greatest cultural distance in England, when I was 23. But we are creatures of our environment and subtle changes are worthy of reflection.

San Diego is one of the great craft beer cities in the world and I have been converted from my standard lager to the local product. A lifelong love affair with Stella has become a series of one-night flings with Sticky Henderson, Perky Blonde and Deftones Phantom Bride. These are courtesy of the brewers Resident, Belching Beaver and Thorn Street – just three from the 100+ in San Diego County . But to my great shame I was so distracted by the weather and wearing flip-flops (of which more in a moment) that it took me three months to realise that a pint is not a pint. It’s not even close. People from the country of my birth know that this is one area where size is everything and will be glad to read that history and actuality are both on our side.

Since 1824 the United Kingdom and the Commonwealth have broadly standardised on the Imperial (feel your heart swell with pride at a word which gets less play by the day) pint equivalent to 568ml. In America the standard pint is 473ml – the uncharitable might even call it the ‘Puny’ pint. That’s because the Imperial (had to use that word again) pint is about 20% larger.

The downside is that what I had begun to consider an increasingly heroic drinking capacity was rather less impressive than I thought. However, craft beer often weighs in at a pretty hefty 6%+abv compared to Stella’s 5.2%. Like the shots to goals ratio of an erratic centre forward I have not quite worked out the right balance between volume and potency but look forward to continuing my education.

An offshoot of this discovery is the mild satisfaction of realising that US gallons are smaller than British gallons. So the price of petrol (or gas as I call it when I am trying to fit in) is not quite so extraordinarily low as we have all thought for years. But I am also told that California gas is expensive compared to Pennsylvania so visitors should choose their destination and filling stations wisely.

My second discovery has been that wearing flip-flops is not the work of the devil. Like most English boys from my era my feet have been encased safely in socks and shoe leather from my first pair of Start-Rite’s to my latest black lace-ups. The notion of bare feet in public anywhere but on holiday in some far-away place where the neighbours would never see has been largely unthinkable.

But there is something about constant sunshine and getting very hot feet that lured me into reversing years of tradition, training and toe-trapping. Shopping the Zappos app has become a little like finding Tinder for shoes as I swipe right for OluKai and Chaco and left for Loake’s. Inevitably, the increased exposure of my feet has led me even further down the path towards behaviour my father would have considered slightly troubling. I had a pedicure.

In my defence I was driven by a sense of anthropological enquiry after being told that the ratio of men to women made mani-pedi salons a dating hot spot. I had, after all, been responsible for the PR team that invented ‘love in the aisles’ to suggest that ASDA’s frozen food aisle was Cupid’s home. For those interested I can report that nail salons are as unlikely to light the fires of love as frozen cod fillets. But if baby soft, good-looking feet are a sign of evolutionary success it’s an hour well spent.

This probably gives the impression that my early months have been spent strolling around the neighbourhood visiting bars and obsessing about my toes. I write that as if it would be a bad thing, but it really isn’t given the quality and quantity of local beers and brew-houses. My current recommendations to visitors are The Bluefoot Bar in North Park (for a dive/sports bar), the Queenstown in Little Italy (Sunday brunch/people watching), and 10 Barrel Brewing in East Village (great balcony).

Sadly, the Bluefoot is a place of pilgrimage for Arsenal fans. Matters appeared to come to a head last week when there was a seven-hour stand-off as SWAT teams thought they had a homicide suspect holed up across the road from the bar. I know that the Carabao Cup result was distressing for the Gooner faithful but that seemed a bit extreme…

My third discovery came when crossing the road the other day. Firstly, I managed to look to my left first to check for traffic which is quite something after so many years of Tufty Fluffytail and the Green Cross Code adverts reminding me to look right. It always struck me as one of the stranger journeys for David Prowse to go from child-safety icon, the Green Cross Man, to progeny-maiming dark lord, Darth Vader. But it’s nice to have some perspective by learning that Prowse’s west-country lilt led to the rest of the cast nicknaming him Darth Farmer.

More important though was that I headed for the pavement (sidewalk!) that was IN THE SHADE. Sensibilities built up over years of vitamin D sapping winter weather and overcast summer days dictate that when there is sunshine an English person walks in it. There are days when crowds of people zig-zag their way down city streets to maximise exposure and worship the glowing, unfathomable orb in the sky – it’s like line dancing but from a cult that also invented Morris dancing.

We do it because we know that the sun might disappear any moment – behind a cloud or a building. More worryingly we know that its reappearance is not certain. Certainly not for days or even months. So we act like lizards, soaking up the warmth and the rays to see us through the lengthy periods of dark, cold and precipitation we know are heading our way.

Sunshine or shade. Maybe it’s a metaphor for the distance between the innocent, carefree time of the Green Cross man and the stygian depths of Darth Vader as he embraced the dark side. But that’s for another blog and a different time…in a galaxy far, far away.

China – Pigs in Pythons, Geese Laying Golden Eggs and the Sea Turtles

As we enter the Year of the Dog many international recruiters and university bosses will be anxious to know whether Chinese students will continue to follow the call to the traditional receiving countries.  The period after Chinese New Year usually signals the quickening of pace in the recruitment cycle but may bring a summer of sluggish, difficult dog days for conversion. Some may even wonder how things might change by the time of the next Dog Year in 2030.

It is no secret that China has been the rocket fuel driving international student enrolments for the past fifteen years. The statistics show that US and UK enrolments continue to become increasingly dependent. And while the Canadian beaver may be popular and industrious, and the Australian kangaroo is bounding ahead, they look increasingly vulnerable to any changes in the market dynamics.

Table 1 – % of Chinese Students in Key Receiving Countries

NB: Gathering data that is matched in terms of definitions and timescales is problematic. The general point regarding concentration of students is clear but the sources are shown for clarity.

The demographics of China do not seem particularly helpful. The pig has passed through the python in terms of the bulge in University-age students. There are 32million fewer Chinese aged 20-24 than there were five years ago. And in another five years there will be 18million fewer than today. Numbers stabilise and then begin to grow slowly but by 2029 remain below 2017 levels.

Table 2 – China DemographicsIt would be fair to argue that 76million people is still a very big audience to aim at if you are a skilled recruiter prepared to travel around second, third and fourth tier cities (handy definition at http://multimedia.scmp.com/2016/cities/ ) as the move to urban areas continues.

There is also the lure that the Chinese middle-class is growing rapidly. Surely the wealthy middle-class is the goose that will lay sufficient golden eggs to more than make up for the fall in population?  Well, maybe, but the concept of a ‘middle class’ seems quite slippery.

In 2016 McKinsey were reporting that, 54% of China’s urban households will be classified as “upper middle” class by 2022. Upper middle class sounds pretty well-off but is measured by McKinsey as household income of $16,000 to $34,000 a year. Just for comparison, the U.S. Census Bureau reported in September 2017 that real median household income in the US was $59,039 in 2016. If you have to pay tuition fees and accommodation in dollars relativity becomes reality.

To give this some further context Table 3 (below) shows the IMF and World Bank comparators on GDP per capita. The Geary-Khamis measure is an ‘international dollar’ that allows a comparison between countries allowing for local cost of living etc. The disparity between the US, UK and China on this measure seems stark.

Table 3 – Comparable GDP Per Capita (Geary-Khamis dollars)

IMF (2017) World Bank (2016)
USA                  59,495           57,467
UK                    43,620           42,609
China               16,624           15,535

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

Average wage growth in China looks pretty impressive. Trading Economics/MOHRSS statistics show strong growth.  But a wage of CNY67569 is worth $10,643 in February 2018.

Table 4 – Growth in China Wages

The real question may be whether the burgeoning middle class will secure enough of the growing wealth of the country or whether the distribution of wealth will increasingly be skewed to a super-rich cohort. The New York Times in 2014 reflected on Professor Thomas Piketty’s book Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Critically, the author notes ‘…income from wealth usually grows faster than wages. As returns from capital are reinvested, inherited wealth will grow faster than the economy, concentrating more and more into the hands of few.’

Table 5 (below) suggests that a key question regarding the distribution of wealth to the Chinese middle class may rest on the extent to which China is more like France than the US and Britain.

Table 5 – Share of Total Income Change in Five Countries

Source: Capital in the 21st Century, Thomas Piketty

It may be, of course, that the growth in wealth is such that it will overcome the decline in demographics and the distribution of income hurdles. But a third challenge is how supply matches against demand in global higher education.  In this respect developments in China (as well as other countries in Asia) are likely to bring serious and sustainable competition to traditional providers.

A full analysis is beyond the scope of this blog but recent reports give some sense of the direction of travel as far as capacity, quality and value are concerned:

i) Universities in China have built capacity at a furious rate and as Establishing A Presence in China notes notes ‘at current rates….there will be a university seat for every child in China by 2030’. (OBHE quoted in THE)
ii) Xiamen University opened its first overseas campus, the first Chinese university to do so, in the Malaysian state of Selangor in September 2015. The primary tuition language is English. The campus intends to split its students body equally between Chinese, Malaysian and other nationalities.
iii) The Asian Universities Alliance, launched in April 2017 will boost Asia’s influence on the global higher education stage as well as supporting regional student mobility. Founding members span 14 countries and include Tsinghua University, Peking University, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
iv) Government investment in Chinese academic research is significant and quality has moved ahead quickly. An example, noted by the White House and reported in the Washington Post (October 2016), gives context in terms of research into artificial intelligence.

Table 6 – Journal Articles Mentioning Deep Learning

vi) The Double First Class Project is reportedly allocating 40 billion RMB ($6.04 billion USD) to a comprehensive project to bring 42 Chinese universities and courses at another 95 Chinese institutions to a “world-class level”.

The move towards a powerful higher education sector capable of serving its own people as well as many other international students seems well established. But, as my economics teacher at school used to tell the class – all decisions are economic. She was in a relationship at the time with the person who became my politics lecturer at College who would tell us – all decisions are political. Education is often just a side show.

In that regard it’s worth considering the initiative commonly known as ‘One Belt One Road’. As one of the largest infrastructure and investment project in history it reportedly covers more than 68 countries, equivalent to 65% of the world’s population and 40% of the global GDP. The extension of soft power through hard cash may become critical in determining the long-term movement of students around the globe.

A self-sufficient China at the heart of a global network will become an even bigger attraction for business and, inevitably, for students drawn to a global economic superpower that is investing so heavily and making travel easier and cheaper. Many Western universities have already ensured that they are partnered with well-funded Chinese institutions and despite the odd wavering over academic freedom we have reached a point of no return. It seems likely that there will be a genuine tipping point where the long-established flow from east to west will reverse.  The haigui, or sea turtles, may not need to travel (and certainly not in the volume of the last fifteen years), to secure the education they need for their lives and careers.

In that respect I find myself considering the words of Dr Monika Korte, the scientific director of the Niemegk Geomagnetic Observatory at GFZ Potsdam in Germany. She said, “It’s not a sudden flip, but a slow process, during which the field strength becomes weak, very probably the field becomes more complex and might show more than two poles for a while, and then builds up in strength and [aligns] in the opposite direction,”.

Dr Korte was talking to livescience.com in 2012 about the anticipated flipping of the Earth’s magnetic poles (What If Earth’s Magnetic Poles Flip? February 10, 2012). The article makes the point that the change is not instantaneous, that the period of change is difficult to manage and characterised by a significant weakening of the current magnetic field.  But eventually the needle points in a different direction. I suspect that is a pretty good metaphor for the Year of the Dog 2030.

8 million globally mobile students – a myth, based on a rounding error, sustained by wishful thinking?

When a number becomes repeated often enough as a fact it is often difficult to see past it. If it appears to be backed by credible sources like the OECD any sense of concern about authenticity diminishes. That is probably why the prediction of 8 million students studying outside their home country by 2025 entered the HE sector’s psyche. But the emergence of that number and its credibility as a prediction based on solid data is difficult to trace.

It’s important partly because of the scale of investment in the sector based on its potential for growth. Since 2010, over a billion dollars has been invested in private providers of pathway courses – examples include Providence, Leeds Equity, and Bridgepoint deals involving Study Group, INTO University Partnerships and Cambridge Education Group. Shorelight and Oxford International also become new entrants to the pathway landscape in 2013 and 2014 respectively.  The title image to this blog is a cropped slide from a presentation at a major, publicly-quoted, pathway provider’s April 2017 Investor Strategy Day.

Universities in traditional receiving countries have also built development plans around growing numbers of international students studying on campus. In the UK alone they are looking to increase international student fee income by nearly 30% in the three years to 2018/19 – a figure even HEFCE politely suggested shows ‘over optimism’. And the Daily Telegraph reported £5.3bn being sunk into purpose-built student accommodation in 2017, compared to £4.5bn the year before and a record £6bn in 2015.

The sector and those who write about it have often used the 8 million as a touchstone. In 2015 the University of Oxford’s International Strategy Office stated, ‘The global population of students who move to another country to study continues to rise…is likely to reach 8 million students per year by 2025.’ In May 2017 a NAFSA flier from one private provider stated confidently, ‘8M students to study outside their home countries by 2025’. The ‘2016 Top Markets Report on Education A Market Assessment Tool for U.S. Exporters’ from the U.S. Department of Commerce also stated that by 2025 ‘…eight million students will be globally mobile.’ 

Most authors quote the same source for the forecast – the 2012 OECD publication, AHELO Feasibility Study. But the OECD do not appear to have done their own data-crunching. The Study reads, ‘growth is projected to continue in the future to reach approximately 5.8m around 2020 (Bohm et al, 2004) and 8m by 2025 (Altbach and Bassett).’ (OECD, AHELO Feasibility Study Report Volume 2, p.24, 2012). The 5.8m reference is from the British Council’s 2020 Vision document (2004) which was underpinned by IDP’s Global Forecasting Model. 

The OECD reference to Altbach and Bassett is credited to an article called ‘The Brain Trade’, in a 2004 edition of the publication, Foreign Policy. In this relatively brief article the authors write, ‘a recent Australian study estimates that the total number of international students will increase to 8 million by 2025’. (The Brain Trade, Foreign Policy, Washington DC pp 30-31, Sept-Oct 2004). That would seem to rule out Altbach and Bassett as the original source although the article does not provide a citation to follow.

In Trends in Global Higher Education: Tracking an Academic Revolution (Altbach et al) for the 2009 UNESCO World Conference on Higher Education the claim is of an even greater acceleration in growth. Page 7 of the full document reads, ‘More than 2.5 million students are studying outside of their home countries. Estimates predict 8 million international students by 2020.’  Confusingly, the Executive Summary settles (on page vi) for saying, ‘Estimates predict the rise to 7 million international students by 2020.’

Neither the source of the 8 million or the 7 million are articulated but the source of the ‘Australian study’ seems clear.  Altbach, on page 25 of the main report, says ‘By 2025, research undertaken for IDP Pty Ltd in Australia suggests that roughly 7.2 million students may be pursuing some higher education internationally, an increase of 188 percent over the 2006 UNESCO estimate (Böhm, et al., 2002). The research in question is GLOBAL STUDENT MOBILITY 2025: Forecasts of the Global Demand for International Higher Education (Bohm, Davis, Meares and Pearce, 2002). But the question of how this relates to a prediction of 8 million globally mobile students remains unclear.

The answer may lie in a 2003 update of the IDP research. The executive summary (page 3) says that one key finding is that ‘global demand for international higher education is forecast to increase from over 2 million in 2003 to 7.6 million in 2025’.  It seems possible that the 7.6m was simply rounded up to 8m but the consequences are significant. In terms of financial outcomes 400,000 students equates, at a conservative estimate, to yearly fee income of more than $5bn dollars.

What is also striking is that, as noted in the British Council’s Vison 2020 report (2004) the IDP Global Forecasting Model, underpinning the 2003 research, was based upon the UNESCO 2001 World Education Report which relied largely on figures from 1996. Could it be that statements being made in 2017 about 8 million globally mobile students by 2025 are relying on a rounding error from a report using data that is 20 years old?

Table 1. Summary Graphic – How The 8 Million May Have Evolved

None of this is intended to undermine the work of the researchers involved. Forecasting is fiendishly difficult and those working in HE recognise the time delays and complexities which can make source material difficult to manage and interpret. We also recognise that circumstances can change rapidly and make even the most accomplished market analyst look foolish.

As we see in the most recent OECD graphic (below) the numbers enrolled overseas grew by only 400,000 from 2010 to 2015. This compared to growth of 1.2m additional students from 2005 to 2010. It seems likely that quality in country provision, and additional tuition options in English-language, as well as the growth of on-line delivery, is allowing students to study in ways that meet their career and personal aspirations at lower cost.

Table 2 : Education at a Glance 2017: OECD Indicators Figure C4.a. Long-term trends in the global number of students enrolled abroad (foreign students definition)

The extraordinary growth in the first decade of the 21st Century may become seen as the peak moment for increased international mobility. In 2012 the British Council predicted that mobility would plateau by 2020. More recently the British Council has predicted that that the annual growth for global outbound students is projected to average at 1.7 percent to 2027, dropping from 5.7 in the period 2000-2015. It is difficult at this point to see that those presentations which held Emo of Friesland arriving at Oxford in the 12th Century as the first in a wave of international students numbering 8m by 2025 will be correct.

Perhaps all this reflects the danger of International student enrolment being viewed as a cryptocurrency where the uninformed may make investments in the misunderstood for fear of missing a wave of future riches. As Warren Buffet memorably said, ‘when the tide goes out..you discover who’s been swimming naked’.

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