AlanPreece

An Englishman Abroad – Gatos y Perros?

It’s official – this is a particularly rainy year in California and I am slightly giddy about it. The map from the blogspot of the mighty Aaron Justus, meteorologist and brewer extraordinaire, shows most areas getting rainfall well above 100% of the average. The purple patches show the heaviest levels above the norm, although all this is tame compared to Aaron’s video of being in situ for Hurricane Earl .

I already think of him as Sir Aaron because anybody who is both obsessed by the weather and works in the brewing industry, particularly right here in San Diego, deserves to be adopted by the British and knighted. It’s a combination of interests that’s a bit like finding out that Bruce Wayne and Batman are the same person. He deserves recognition for his selfless dedication to two liquids that have been pivotal in shaping the modern world.

I have also become slightly obsessed by Aaron’s web-site with its multi-coloured maps, radar loops, satellite images and chatty exchanges with readers. Any site that has all that, talks about el nino and la nina with casual authority and posts a webcam ‘looking west from the Black Mountain’ gets my recommendation. And that’s before you get to his beer videos like the spooky ‘open fermentation’ special where the vessels truly runneth over.

While Gladys Knight raised the prospect of ‘a rainy night in Georgia’ it was Albert Hammond who immortalised southern California’s reputation for drought. He took it a little far when he said it never rains in California but more importantly the next line, ‘it pours’, was on the money. As an aficionado of Belfast drenchings and Manchester soakings I have been mightily impressed by the Golden State’s ability to mount a storm of decent ferocity.

The rain has given me a whole new perspective on life as an expat Brit in a land where sunshine is the norm. I wield an umbrella with appropriate flourishes, throw scorn at the drivers who slow to a crawl at the first drop on their windscreen, and smile at the astonishment of locals as I walk in light drizzle without a coat. I take Uber rides specifically so that I can give the captive driver a monologue about how the rain is all well and good but that it was the UK drought of ’76 that was most formative in my teenage years.

I am slightly troubled, however, that if this goes on long enough I may exhaust my supply of rain references. I’d guess that the English have at least as many descriptors for rain as the family of languages including Inuit and Yupik have for snow. Whether it’s ‘spitting’, ‘spotting’, ‘chucking it down’ or ‘coming down stair rods’ it’s an idiomatic pick ‘n’ mix of great cultural richness. I haven’t tried popularising esta lloviendo gatos y perros but the time will come when I will have to use my fledgling Spanish to best effect.

My fall-back position will be a childhood chorus including ‘incy wincy spider’, ‘rain rain go away’ and ‘old man is snoring’ – all with actions if I’m in the mood. And I feel the growing inevitably of a mix tape with old favourites by Status Quo, Barbra Streisand and Tina Turner. Perhaps I’ll even take issue with Paul Simon’s statement that ‘a good day ain’t got no rain, a bad day’s when I lie in bed and think of things that might have been.’

As usual I have bumped into the language barrier while discussing the opportunities arising from excess water in a semi-desert landscape. Like any responsible citizen I have been discussing how to harvest the rain in order to use it later in the year. But it became clear that my references to buying a water butt were being met with looks that ranged from bemused to mildly scandalized.

Apparently, they refer to them as rain barrels in the US. But I contest that description on the grounds that rain is what comes out of the sky and once it is settled it becomes something else – a puddle, a stream, a pond or just water. Unfortunately, the etymology of ‘butt’ and ‘barrel’ makes it difficult to separate them so I have asserted my usage with the standard – ‘whose language is it anyway?’.

My research on the subject took me to the internet and leads to me sharing some good advice with any sensitive readers interested in this subject. The search term ‘butt etymology’ should be avoided at all costs. The worldwide web is a wondrous thing and to be treasured but it can lead down some very dubious roads.

The other wondrous thing about the past few weeks has been a morning temperature that allows that delightfully childish game of breathing out smoke into the cold air. It has been as low as 42degrees farhenheit (5 celsius for European readers) recently. Not quite record-breaking but has led to a set of ‘frost warnings’ in other parts of the State.

It’s almost like being back in the UK with the only difference being that I probably have 260 days of sunshine to look forward to.

SHOPPING FOR IDEAS: HIGH STREET TO HIGHER EDUCATION

Higher education should look to the disruption in retailing and other sectors to develop a roadmap to the future. While no two sectors are the same, the notion that novel and implementable ideas can come from other alternative disciplines has a good history¹. The parallels between retailing and higher education offer particularly fertile territory for consideration.

There are, arguably, particular similarities between department stores and universities. Both offer wide ranges of largely similar products and make claims about their quality, customer experience and real estate to justify premium prices. Moreover, in recent years both have been driven to special offers, discounting and increased marketing costs in an attempt to secure the volume of customers they need to survive.

Breaking Bad As Demographics, Technology and Globalisation Bite

The heyday of high street and the shopping mall, from the mid to late 20th century, coincided with the ‘massification’ of higher education². The demands of the baby boomer generation coupled with consistent c5% annual real GDP growth in developed market economies from 1950 to the early 1970s³underpinned both. Changing demographics and the relative decline in government investment has made higher education as vulnerable as retailing to changing market forces.

In that context, headlines reported a record number of over 7,000 store closures in 2017⁴. While doomsday predictions that “50% of the 4,000 colleges and universities in the U.S. will be bankrupt in 10 to 15 years”⁵may be wide of the mark, closures are accelerating. For universities it may be ominous that the major losers in retailing were department stores which “have been suffering a death by a thousand cuts for years due to poor merchandising and outdated business models”.⁶

Further broad comparisons between the sectors can be drawn. Technology is often cited as a key factor in the disruption of retail and higher education, and education is rapidly moving to a point where attendance at a bricks and mortar institution is optional. But even if technology had not created generations of digital natives who learn in new ways it has placed the power of search and comparison is in their hands.

Globalisation has also had a marked and growing impact in both sectors with a shift in favour of Asia Pacific over the past ten years⁷. China’s improving performance in global university rankings and its plans to be the dominant global centre for international students by 2049⁸ suggest the direction of travel. The traditional distribution of international students from east to west appears to be shifting rapidly and institutions need to develop effective responses.

Finding The Path From Apocalypse To Renaissance

Against these headwinds there are a small number of universities in the world who may have the financial and brand strength to resist these global tides. Short of a catastrophic scandal, financial mismanagement or a government bent on vandalising its international credibility it is probably safe to assume that the likes of Harvard, Cambridge, and other national or private treasures are secure.

For the rest there is an urgent need to refine, realign and reinforce what they offer to students. A germane lesson for them from retailing is that, despite the headlines, overall in 2017 more stores opened than closed and retail sales grew by 4.5% (over $232bn)⁹. While the media were coining the phrase ‘retail apocalypse’, smart investors and business operators were moulding their offer to meet the needs of a changing world.

Retailers have invested significant brain power and cash in trying to find a way through the storm. Their focus on their value proposition – how they solve customers’ problems at the right price – is a useful tool for focusing on what is important. And there are a number of themes which universities might consider.

1. Provide unique and compelling products and experiences

Dreary, derivative and duplicated product lines are not enough in an era where a world of choice is accessible at the touch of a button. Universities must examine their own “product lines” (degrees and other courses) and determine how much they can be streamlined into areas that are both market sensitive and differentiable from the competition. While the campus experience is not dead it cannot be taken for granted, and the marketing lessons of experience-driven destinations such as national parks and vacation resorts might provide inspiration.

2. Online delivery must be world-class

Costco, Walmart, Nordstrom and others have invested heavily in ensuring that their online involvement is well resourced and competitive with the best that Amazon can offer (their success is one reason that Amazon has begun advertising itself in traditional media¹⁰). For most universities the reach and scalability of online is attractive but they will be competing against the rest of the world. Only the very best quality delivery of market relevant courses with full academic commitment and outstanding user experiences will stand the test of time.

3. Pace, performance and personalisation

Retailers have optimized supply chains and utilized technology to ensure that product is always available, personalisation is possible, delivery never disappoints, and repeat business is maximised. For universities excellence must extend from the first point of contact to the building of alumni networks and lifelong learning. If a programme of study or administrative process is not competitive, a disciplined university will recognise the problem quickly and adjust it or eliminate it.

4. One size does not fit all

Sears declined from being the largest retailer in the US in 1989 to near bankruptcy in 2018, but Dollar General, 7-11, Aldi and O’Reilly Auto are among those opening stores. Value, convenience and specialisation have given them growth opportunities in the market. It’s a reasonable reminder that there are millions of students around the world with differing needs and resources. Universities should actively focus on understanding the market, seek differentiation and develop their niche.

Perhaps the best rallying call from retailing is what Deloitte has termed ‘the great retail bifurcation’¹¹with growth for ‘price’ and ‘premium’ performers contrasting with ‘balanced’ retailers, who have broadly similar offerings, lagging behind; they suggest that the moment is ripe for a modern renaissance which uproots traditions, institutions and thoughts. More starkly they comment on the need for ‘new and unique capabilities’ and reflect the degree to which the ‘new requirements differ from the old operating model’.

All told, however, the most significant and radical change needed may be an unravelling of the emotional commitment to delivery and outcomes which remain organised around a model first established in the 11^th century. The large fixed-cost base of buildings and grounds have also come to be seen as more central to the identity of most universities than meeting the needs of their students. There is a pressing need to focus hard on the needs and expectations of the customer and consider new models and concepts. Looking outside the sector for inspiration may help.

References

Sometimes the Best Ideas Come from Outside Your Industry, Poetz, Franke and Schreier, Harvard Business Review, November 21, 2014
‘The United States Country Report: Trends in Higher Education from Massification to Post- Massification’, Gompert, Iannozzi, Shaman and Zemsky, National Center for Postsecondary Improvement, Stanford, 1997)
Multinationals and Global Capitalism: From the Nineteenth to the Twenty-first Century, Geoffrey G. Jones, Oxford University Press, 2005).
2017 just set the all-time record for store closings, CNN Business, October 25, 2017
Quote by Clayton Christensen, from Inside Higher Education, November 21, 2017
Debunking the Retail Apocalypse, Holman and Buzek, IHL Group, August, 2017
Global Powers of Retailing 2015 Embracing Innovation, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, 2015
Carma Elliot OBE, Director China British Council, quoted in The Pie, December 19, 2018
Retail’s Radical Transformation/Real Opportunities Beyond the “Retail Apocalypse” to a Bright Future, Holman and Buzek, IHL Group, August, 2018
Jeff Bezos used to hate spending money on ads, Eugene Kim, CNBC, February 1, 2019
The Great Retail Bifurcation, Why the retail ‘apocalypse’ is really a renaissance, Deloitte Insights, Deloitte Development LLC, 2018

AN ENGLISHMAN ABROAD WANTS TO CHANGE THE RULES

Challenging the norms of another country’s national sports is always asking for trouble. But the weekend’s Patriots versus Chiefs championship game ended on such a note of anti-climax that it cannot go unremarked. The way in which tied matches are decided in over-time does no justice to the talent in the game.

The stakes were heightened by the star quarterbacks on each side. Legendary, multiple Super Bowl ring winner Tom Brady against young gun, superstar Patrick Mahomes. The sherrif was in town and the kid was itching for a fight.

It was an attritional game with flashes of brilliance on all sides which is everything you could hope for. The two slugged it out toe to toe for four quarters and with just ten seconds left in the game the Chiefs tied the scores. High drama to be followed by total disatisfaction that left a new observer of the game cold.

The method of settling the game is that each side gets a possession and the chance to score unless a touchdown is scored by the team with first possession. If the scores are equal after a possession each it becomes ‘sudden death’ with the next score winning the game. And the first possession is determined by the toss of a coin.

The Patriots won the coin toss and marched down the field to score a touchdown. There was no opportunity for the Chiefs or their quarterback to respond with their own touchdown. And that is where the problem lies.

Imagine a world heavyweight boxing match where the scores are tied at the end of the allotted twelve rounds. To decide the fight a coin is tossed and the loser is not allowed to throw a punch for the next three rounds. If he is knocked down he loses.

Or a tied game in a World Cup Final between Portugal and Argentina. On the flip of a piece of metal, it is decided that Messi can’t play in the first half of extra-time and if Portugal score the game is over. As Ronaldo wheels to celebrate his success the sight of the world’s other greatest player on the sidelines would be heartbreaking.

Defence may win championships but most fans clamour for the thrill of creative players doing amazing things. They want the joy of enterprise and the jubilation of scoring. To have a system where one side can be deprived of that makes little sense.

It’s even worse in a game which is a series of set-pieces and where first-mover advantage is in favour of the team in possession. Alex Lalas noted that a free-kick in soccer is ‘probably the closest thing we have to American football’. An increasing number of goals in soccer are coming from set-plays as coaches understand the advantage it gives them in a game which is otherwise almost entirely random.

This advantage in American Football is borne out by the statistics. According to Football Outsiders statistics Drive Success Rate (DSR), which measures the percentage of down series that result in a first down or touchdown, no team is successful less than 60% of the time. In 2018 the Patriots had a season DSR of 73.9% and the Chiefs a DSR of 80%.

In short, you would expect the Patriots to complete a first down most of the time they are in possession. And some excellent statistical work by Brian Burke indicates that, wherever on the field a drive starts it is more likely to end in a touchdown than a field goal. None of this takes away from the quality of the Patriots’ execution in a pressure situation but it shows how the balance of probability adds up.

But the point is that the Chiefs did not get a chance to respond which short-changed the paying public. I am told that before a rule change it was even worse, with only a field goal being needed to win in overtime. It’s a version of the dreaded ‘golden goal’ tried in soccer until being dropped in 2004 – I like to think because rule-makers realised it was dumb.

In every sport I can think of, where a definitive result is necessary, the teams battle it out on a blow for blow basis until the end. Baseball can go on for hours and hours and innings after innings. Football has resorted to penalty shoot-outs which at least equalises the pressures and skill levels of the teams.

And that is probably where American Football should go. Maybe they give each side two ‘mini-quarters’ of, say, three minutes, with no time-outs, to score. Once they score, a field goal or touchdown, or lose possession they hand the ball over to the opposition. If the scores are level at the end of that, the game goes to field goal kicking of increasing lengths until one misses while the other scores.

Or they could simply move to the NCAA college rules where each team is, in succession and with no time limit, given the ball on the 25 yard line. After the first team completes its drive with a score or turnover, the opposing team has the same opportunity. If the teams are still tied after the second team’s possession, they must play another period until a winner emerges.

Neither is perfect but both mean that each side has an equal chance to win. The game is eventually settled on a test of skill rather than fortune. And the tension would be unbearable to the very end. Perfect.

An Englishman Abroad Struggles With Sporting Conventions

It’s play-off and championship season in the National Football League and I am riveted by the mass of information on the TV screen. There’s the score, the time, which quarter the game’s in, the number of yards needed and which down it is. It’s a lot to take in but I remain baffled as to why the home team’s name comes second on the screen.

A lifetime in the UK has been based upon the immutable law that when a match is promoted and shown the home team’s name is first. It makes sense because the game is at their stadium and it’s a reminder of home advantage. It is very disorienting to have this turned on its head for no good reason.

The argument from American friends is that it is to reinforce the spoken version. So it’s “the Steelers at the Patriots” and they seem equally bemused by my concern. It’s common to American sports from basketball to baseball to hockey but it is as strange to a resident alien as some of the spelling.

It might help if the American sports had proper knock-out cup competitions because it seems inconceivable that you would draw the away team out of the hat first. But there was incredulity when I described a competition where pure chance might pit the might of Premier League Champions against the humblest of pub teams. There is no equivalent here to the televisual genius of watching faded, mumbling players of yesteryear plucking swirling numbered balls blindly from a rotating device that has been borrowed from the local Bingo hall.

The ‘oooing’ and ‘aaaing’ and sharp intakes of breath as particularly juicy ties are drawn is a staple of being a fan of English football. It’s matched by the camera in the clubhouse of some non-league upstarts looking to make an impression on the shins of an overpaid, over-tattooed and overrated Premier League star. They may themselves be overweight, overworked and, er, over-tattooed but this is their moment in the sun.

Everything about the FA Cup speaks to the principles of a working class game that has spawned decades of clichés. It’s eleven against eleven, a game of two halves and a pitch recently cleared of cow pats is a great leveller. Nobody wants to play against Clogger United on a frosty, January night but it’s a reminder of the days when players caught the local bus to the stadium and drank a pint or four with the fans after the game (and sometimes before).

It seems to me that the lack of decent cup competition is against the very spirit of the United States and I’d venture, without any genuine understanding, that it is likely to be unconstitutional. This is supposed to be the land of opportunity where every child has the chance to become President and where Supreme Court Justices vehemently declare their love of beer. Surely there has to be a space for the town of Gonzales, Louisiana, the ‘jambalaya capital of the world’, to form a team called the Gophers and take homefield advantage to give Bill Belichick’s all conquering New England Patriots a bloody nose.

When I raised the possibility it was suggested that the entire Gophers squad would be hospitalised in the first quarter by the superior physical qualities of the visiting supermen. But anybody who saw Division 2 Sunderland beat the mighty Leeds United in the FA Cup Final, or savoured Southern League Herford’s win against the, then high-flying, Newcastle United, knows that dreams never die. A ruptured spleen and complex fractures of every limb seem a small price to pay for a shot at glory.

It’s always good to have a theme so if I’m obliged to start a campaign my intention would be to invoke the spirit of the Rocky’s – Balboa and Marciano – and the formidable peak peaks of the Rockies – Elbert and Massive. Warming to the task I’d eat Rocky Road ice cream (invented in California in 1929), wear Rocky boots (from Ohio since 1932) and sing Rocky Mountain Way by Joe Walsh (born in Kansas 1947) as my closer.

I put the whole fear of being beaten by part-timers down to another unfathomable thing about American sports – there is no promotion or relegation. For a land which consistently harps on about winners being first and losers being nowhere this rather softens the blow of not being good enough. No chance of going down or up, or facing ‘Nutter’ Smith in the backfield during a tricky cup match, means that the players can coast indefinitely.

The weakness of some of the groupings in the NFL’s structure of eight, four-team divisions grouped in two conferences has been recognised. An example is the NFC East where the New England Patriots have topped the table 16 times in the last 18 years. The advantage is that you get a week of rest and then homefield advantage against a ‘wild card’ team.

Talking of the Patriots reminds me of another strange thing about American football. Each team gets to use their own balls when they are on offense (or attack in English parlance). This led to the famous ‘deflategate’ scandal where the Patriots were accused of under-inflating their balls. It was January 2015 and they were playing the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship game.

The referees seemed not to notice at the time which is not surprising because their ‘ruling on the field’ is overruled by video review with astonishing regularity. It may also be because they are dressed in replica Newcastle United shirts and throw yellow dusters around when they spot an infringement. It’s like watching the Toon Army take up Morris Dancing with Molly Maid Home Cleaning Services.

It’s difficult for me to get excited about the scandal because the thought of teams being able to change the ball just because they are in possession is bizarre. But I do laugh at the thought of running a rugby game in the same way. Imagine stopping some lumpen Welsh flanker with cauliflower ears and a broken nose, who has just turned over a ruck-ball by stomping all over the head of an English fly-half.

Referee: “Sorry, old chap, but it’s your turn to attack now so you need to stop for a moment and play with your own ball.” Flanker: Makes unintelligible, sub-human noises due to fractured septum, mud up the nostrils, multiple concussions and an ill fitting gum-shield over teeth already needing complete reconstructive surgery. Referee: “Good man, tha……” before the rest of the conversation is lost as the unfortunate official being trampled by what the late Bill McLaren might have called, ‘twenty stone of the finest, Welsh livestock on the hoof’.

And with that I am immediately looking forward to the first day of the new six-nations championship on 1 February and the opportunity to indoctrinate friends here about the virtues of rugby. Dark-arts in the scrum, pace and power set against speed and strength, and the ultimate in physical confrontations without padding. There is nothing quite like it and I am hoping that the screen will show the home team first – just like it should be.

GOOD NEWS – FOR SOME – IN UK INTERNATIONAL ENROLMENT 2017/18

The latest HESA release showing enrolments in UK institutions for 2017/18 show a welcome increase in international enrolments. Digging under the surface suggests that the trends of the past five years are getting reinforced. The big brands are doing well and there are a couple of well organised outliers.

Table 6 of the HESA data allows us to look at total enrolments by individual institution which gives a good sense of who is able to replace students leaving the university with new enrolments as competition increases. Looking at the total enrolments also gives a better sense of what might be happening to tuition revenue. The table shows that total international enrolments have gone up by 3.8% from 307,540 to 319,340 – that’s 11,800 students.

Ten institutions absorbed 7,320 additional students with the Russell Group universities taking eight of the ten places. In terms of ‘branding’ the 24 Russell Group universities added 10,230 students overall. De Montfort continues its remarkable performance in international recruitment and that’s great credit to the focus and discipline of the management team.

The performance of the University of the Arts is also very strong. Looking at the Annual Report the university is showing a 19.8% increase in international fee income for the year in question – from £86m to £103m. It’s a strong and differentiated higher education brand in one of the world’s most culturally vibrant cities and looks to be leveraging those benefits

Table 1 – Top Ten Universities for Increases In Total International Enrolments (Non-EU) 2017/18

This lop-sided distribution of growth inevitably means that some universities did less well. Those showing the largest losses may all have strategic reasons for reducing international numbers but that seems the least likely explanation. The universities Sheffield Hallam, Hull, Sunderland and Greenwich were all identified as being in long-term decline in international enrolments in my blog Winning And Losing In Global Recruitment back in April 2018.

Table 2 – Top Ten Universities for Decreases In Total International Enrolments (Non-EU) 2017/18

While international enrolments reflect global competitiveness they should be seen in the context of wider recruitment issues in the sector. Lower ranked universities are already being squeezed by the bigger and better placed universities when it comes to recruiting home-students. It’s a painful double-whammy for some institutions as they face into the Augar Review and the Government’s thinking on post-school education.

Universities: ‘A Common Treasury’ For The Knowledge Economy

For several decades UK higher education has been a battleground for short-term thinking, abdication of responsibility and political point scoring. But Phil Baty of the THE recently that the UK HE sector has been the subject of an unusually intense barrage of bad headlines. This is often part of the softening up process before a government intervenes with its latest ideologically driven initiatives.

The ‘independent’ trigger may be the Augar Review which is part of the government’s current review of post-18 education. The Review themes of choice, value for money, access and skills provision offer cover for significant intervention in the sector. There are many areas where universities do each of these things well but the very notion of autonomous, self-governing institution does not give it an easy time in assembling a coherent, sector-wide response.

More worryingly, the review’s focus on ‘wage returns’ picks a battleground where universities have probably relied too long on distorted ‘average earnings of graduates’ to defend themselves. Alongside attacks on pay levels of Vice-Chancellors, unconditional admissions and grade inflation, the sector is painted as being self-serving, complacent and out of touch with its student customers or employers’ needs. It is painful to watch at a moment when the UK needs to defend its reputation for quality higher education against global competition rather than have a firing squad in an inward-facing circle.

In thinking about the future of the sector I was reminded of the ideas of Gerrard Winstanley, the ideological driver of the True Levellers (commonly known as the Diggers) in the late 1640s who saw the land as a ‘common treasury for all’. Their attempt to implement his ideas of a Utopian society based on common ownership of the land and shared purpose in meeting the needs of all was suppressed by the government of the day. But in a global knowledge economy it seems to me that universities have a strong claim to be today’s ‘common treasury for all’.

Taking this as my starting point I offer my own version of steps that might help build a better integrated and more stable higher education sector:

1. An Independent ‘Bank Of Education’ To Oversee Quality, Relevance and Cost

Independent central banks emerged in many developed countries because the economy is too important to place all the levers in the hands of transient governments. The same is true of education but the sector is also too important to have the rights and needs of students as the only consideration. The Bank of England’s mission is ‘Promoting the good of the people of the United Kingdom by maintaining monetary and financial stability’ and that is the breadth required by a ‘bank of education’ freed from political interference.

2. If One Pays Then Everyone Should Pay

I have always believed that education is a common good and should be free. If that cannot be the case then it seems illogical to have arbitrary cut off points to begin repaying student loans. Every graduate should begin, on a sliding scale, to repay their student loan from the moment they begin earning a salary. It would mean every graduate can say they are giving back – even if it is only pennies – in line with the benefit they receive. Every graduate gets treated the same with a straight deduction from earned income without external contributions or the ability to pay the debt early.

3. The Beneficiaries Of An Educated Workforce Should Pay More And Get Involved

The data on pay suggests that graduates do not always get premium ‘wage returns’ but in principle employers should always benefit from a better educated workforce and the burden of funding should reflect that. Several writers have noted that the model provided by the Apprenticeship Levy has potential for higher education and the notion of hypothecated funding seems attractive. But a slogan from the 1700s, no taxation without representation, is a good reminder that employers should also have a right, indeed should be obliged, to support and guide university activities.

4. A Strategy For UK Education As A Major Economic Asset

Governments around the world, particularly in recent years China, Canada and Australia, have demonstrated that a joined-up approach to higher education can be of significant economic benefit. Even without UK government help, well-ranked institutions have shown that at both an international and country level that they can monopolise declining or static pools of potential students. Whether the future is in building global super-brands or allowing weak players to fail a coherent, data-led and output driven, game plan for UK higher education, is important.

5. Consider Undergraduate Study As A First Job

Young people have lots of reasons for going to university straight from school but it is difficult to understand why their experience should be seen as so removed from those who go straight to employment. Both have to be disciplined, have to learn, want to enjoy their experience and are looking for a grounding that will allow them to progress. As traditional undergraduate teaching is altered by blended learning, bite-sized credentials, online delivery, compressed time periods and 24/7 availability there is a moment to see work and study as part of a continuum. I heard recently that learning ‘is a seventy year job’ – it’s a good way to think about education.

6. Stress Tests and Plans For University Closures

There has been a lot of posturing around the potential for universities to fail but precious little sign that anybody has a plan for the eventuality or a way of understanding the risk level. There should be absolute clarity around the responsibilities for understanding the potential for failure, managing/reviving a declining university and the way in which its closure or repurposing might be led. In terms of the ‘common treasury’ there is an associated need to consider the broader interests of the sector and national/local economy by managing unfettered growth from universities unfairly advantaged by brand and financial muscle.

AN ENGLISHMAN ABROAD IN CHRISTMAS PRESENT (AND A BIT OF PAST)

Being in a city where the sun hardly ever sleeps makes Christmas a physical and mental challenge. No icy streets to avoid slipping on, no blanket of sodden, fallen leaves to trudge through and none of the relentless street corner carolling from chuggers and latchkey kids on the make. Just the sunshine, clear blue skies and refined, acoustic covers of Christmas hits in local gift shops.

Many of the traditions in the run up to Christmas are missing. This includes the yearly favourite, inspired by betting company PR departments, around the growing chances of a white Christmas. For a few weeks weather forecasters play along with reasonable degrees of humour before offering us reassurance that no snowflakes will fall on the big day.

There’s good news for betting people in that the old test used to be a snowflake falling on the Met Office building in London. But the developing sophistication of the bookies means that some of them offer different odds for different parts of the country. Paddy Power makes Aberdeen this year’s favourite – which may be the first time since Alex Ferguson’s tenure that they have been favourites for anything.

There doesn’t seem to be an equivalent in the US. Some parts of the country seem to be fatalistically awaiting or have had several weeks thigh-deep snowdrifts, while others are blithely deciding which pair of shorts to wear. It’s another reminder that the UK could fit, in terms of land mass, into each of the ten largest states in the US.

The other sign of changing times is the diminishing need to leave the house to shop. On too many occasion my Christmas Eve was spent dashing around an overheated department store buying overly expensive gifts. The cost was usually proportionate to my desperation and sense of guilt about lack of planning.

The efficiency of online retailing has made the last minute dash a thing of the past. I cannot be alone in my astonishment that orders seem to arrive almost before they are made. Perhaps the next step is that Alexa simply chooses for you what gifts are to be purchased without you even having to think about it.

My problem with that would be that Alexa has a habit of misunderstanding me. I think it’s an accent thing and I have lost many games of Jeopardy or Pop Quiz due to answers being rejected because I have not develop a trans-Atlantic twang. The specific failing is that years of reminding the children ‘there’s a ‘t’ in that word’ means I don’t geddit that I should say paddio rather than patio.

Music has also become a bone of contention with the sunshine creating a slightly perverse demand amongst locals for full on Christmas cheer. My post-ironical play-list containing the more profound but less joyful classics, ‘Christmas in February’ and ‘Christmas Card from a Hooker in Minneapolis’, has been roundly rejected. There is a real tension between attitudes in a sunny, warm climate and those bred in the harsh reality of an English winter.

My belief in gritty realism is that I’ve always taken the view that the celebration is grounded in very difficult circumstances. It’s about an impoverished family, bullied by a venal government, taking temporary shelter in conditions suitable only for cattle. It seems well established that social services failed them terribly and that cutbacks to the emergency services meant they couldn’t get there in time for the birth.

In a classic Government cover up the Government of the day decided to move the news cycle on by launching a campaign to persecute infant boys. Twitter resistance was launched under #notustoo but nobody was ever successfully prosecuted. Over time all of the events were glossed over or denied and secret payments were made to ensure the silence of those involved.

Editor’s Note: None of the above should be taken to reflect any events or people past or present. It’s inconceivable that any of these things could happen in a well-ordered democracy where the rule of law prevails.

Looking back I was reminded that in the early 1990s I spent all night in the run-up to one Christmas in the ASDA Clapham store. We had managed to take advantage of the changes in UK legislation to become the first major store to be open for 24-hours. It seems so common nowadays that it feels like a different world to remember that all big stores used to shut by 10pm.

Christmas in the aisles was punctuated by the PR specials we had imported to enliven proceedings. The man on the bed of nails certainly made an incongruous addition to the non-food aisles as was the sight of the company’s CEO carrying out bag-packing duties at 3am in the morning. The next day’s coverage was spectacular and the face of late-night shopping in the UK was changed forever.

This will also my second year without a traditional works Christmas party. High kicking to ‘New York New York’ has happened, inappropriate behaviour that has brewed all year between colleagues has occurred, and the trousers of a board director have fallen down. A lot of alcohol has been taken and hangover breakfasts consumed.

The partner of a work-mate has phoned at 4am to say the boyfriend isn’t home and that Find Friends is locating his phone in the middle of Albert Dock. People have cried, shouted, argued and cried some more. There has been a lot of laughter and high jinks that have made Christmas Day feel like the last mile in a marathon of celebration.

No such dramas this year. The tree is up and decorated, the dogs have their Christmas sweaters and there will be beef and Yorkshire puddings as we pull the crackers for lunch on the 25th. And I will have the best excuse to continue my personal tradition of never watching the Queen’s (God Bless Her) speech.

Thanks to all those who have read any of my musings during 2018. I hope you have a wonderful Christmas and a joyous New Year. All the best for 2019.

From Deal to Delivery With Pathways

After the champagne has been drunk and lawyers have left the building the respective teams of the pathway provider and the university face ‘operationalising’ the arrangement. 57% of College and University Admissions Directors believe ‘pathways programs will become more important to US higher education in the current environment’ (IHE/Gallup Survey, 2018) so it’s a good moment to consider how that can work. Here are a few thoughts and things to consider based on experience from both sides of the fence.

Most deals are driven by senior management who want to meet strategic needs including more students, revenue and diversity. Work groups, steering boards and workshop sessions are often held in the context of political will from the top down to get a deal done. But once they believe the international recruitment issue is resolved the top team moves on to other priorities.

The failure of many pathways to deliver the expected results can be traced back to this moment because there is no perfect preparation for the day to day engagement between two culturally different organisations. Caution, disorientation and lack of empathy quickly become frustration, blame and mistrust. As Mike Tyson memorably put it, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth”.

Personal relationships between key decisionmakers can help and one example will serve. One pathway provider wanted to take over all communication with agents, a plan that was being resisted wholeheartedly within the university. It became a symbol of resistance in the international office but a sign of naivety and bloody mindedness by the provider.

Over a couple of Long Island Iced Teas in a Malaysian bar the universities head of international recruitment explained the insecurities, egos and justifications to the provider’s Global Sales Director. After a pause he simply said, “OK. You carry on communicating directly. As long as you promise that we can review in six months and if it isn’t working we try my way.”

It allowed the head of international a ‘victory’ but also the chance to give a clear warning to the internal team that they had to deliver. Having conceded without rancour the provider was able to leverage goodwill on other issues. A year or so later both the main protagonists agreed that it was never that important an issue in the first place.

But personal relationships are the result of hard work, respect, regular engagement and transparency. There will always be decisions to make, changes to consider and strong views to manage. Below are a few things that will almost certainly come up in the first year or so and some possible responses.

Entry requirements will need reconsidering. Most pathway providers will, at some point, say that recruitment or progression is being hindered by unrealistic academic standards. Every university with a few years of successful recruitment will want to raise grades and then gets surprised when applications drop off.

Be realistic and conduct ongoing research into what is happening in the market – not just in your country but around the world. Too many universities fail to fully understand international equivalencies or the difference between school systems in other countries.

Cost of acquisition is going up and universities should invest. Competition is tough and commission deals are a complex range of standard, special, emergency and wrapped in deals for marketing, trips and exhibition slots. The suspicion is always that higher costs are simply an excuse to cover poor recruitment planning.

Understand the providers commercial plan for engaging with agents and why they believe it works for your university. Then keep asking how it is going and what evidence exists – term sheets are relatively easy to get from friendly agents. Consider the lifetime value of the student to the university and work with the provider to consider that return holistically.

Academics should travel to support recruitment. Some academics have been global road warriors with great success and some senior management teams spend weeks on the road at key times. Some try never to leave the university campus because it interferes with their research or they don’t have budget.

In the battle for students an academic title can make a real difference and overtime the winners will have academics who travel regularly. Get used to it and build an internal team that is willing to trot the globe and work hard to recruit. Also, make sure there is a budget to support international travel – time in country is never wasted.

Admissions times are rarely fast enough. This usually become a running sore and it needs to be dealt with quickly. Standards should be agreed before the deal is signed but even then the provider will want to move the goalposts.

Admissions processes are part of the recruitment arms race and sometimes responses are needed very quickly to optimise enrollments. Work with the provider to make the internal investment case for improved systems, people and processes. Start from the point that admissions is a bridge not a gate – the objective should be to secure every student who has a reasonable chance of completing their academic programme.

Targets will be missed. In the heat of deal making the pressure to close is intense and people, on both sides, sometimes get greedy and fearful in equal degree. Too many partnerships then work under a fog of misunderstanding and misinformation about target, stretch target, baseline, quotas etc. Even worse can be a lack of realism and prompt feedback about changing market conditions.

Start by presuming that first-year recruitment may be well below target (and that it is not necessarily the providers fault). Make sure university budgets, assuming progressing students, have a reasonable buffer. Do the work to review second year and third year targets as early as possible in the light of experience. Understand what can and will change to make ensuing years better.

Universities expect the provider to do it all. It can seem reasonable to hand the controls to the ‘experts’ and sit back to watch the students roll in. And there is always a get-out clause or a contractual stick to beat them with if targets are missed.

That is not partnership and universities should want to be involved in anything that involves their reputation. It’s not just about money because students and staff have a stake in the outcomes. University staff know their institution better than any external provider ever will – the more generous and helpful they can be the better for everyone. And providers need to socialise new thinking carefully rather than launching a new plan that is seen as counter-cultural.

Senior people and champions will leave. A partnership deal is often partly the result of a meeting of minds and ambitions. But it is rare for the original movers and shakers to be as regularly involved after three years. Incomers will have different understandings and motivations and the glow of ‘mutual benefit’ can be tarnished by competing interests.

Providers need to be alert to changing University personnel and work hard at relationships– not just at senior level but by embedding themselves at several levels. Taking time to understand new thinking while establishing a common knowledge of history pays off. Universities need to make sure they are allowing good access and taking time to keep their internal audiences informed.

This list is not intended to be exhaustive and there is plenty more that could be said about building long-term, productive partnerships in student recruitment. Neither partner should expect to have it all their own way but the search for optimal outcomes should be ceaseless. Perhaps the best advice is to have ‘the qualities of an old political fighter’ as Boris Yeltsin once ascribed to a colleague – ”patience and flexibility, always searching for intelligent compromise.

2018 Surge in UK Student Record of Prior Acceptance

This may be one for aficionados of the nuances of UK Higher Education admissions trends. A lot of attention has been paid to the rapid growth of unconditional offers as a way of inducing undergraduate students to go firm with a university. But there seems to have been no comment on last year’s near 38% rise in Record of Prior Acceptance (RPA) applications registered by UK students.

For the uninitiated the RPA allows a student and university to deal directly to make/accept an offer rather than going through the UCAS system. To ensure that the UCAS reporting captures all students universities then report the RPA students to UCAS. Once the student completes the RPA form they are not able to make any other applications.

After a period of relative stability the number of RPAs registered increased by 7870 year on year for UK students. This was in a cycle where the number of UK applicants overall fell. Both Other-EU and International students using RPAs increased – the former by 43.6% – but from a lower base.

It seems plausible that the driver is that students have decided to start using RPAs more often during the clearing process. But it seems a stretch to believe that they know about this route for applications before engaging directly with a university. For the university it allows them to help the student while reducing the chance of that individual shopping around for options.

In the scheme of things, the numbers involved are still relatively small. Just over 6% of the total number of students used the RPA route in 2018. But that’s up from 3.9% in 2014 and just 4.8% in 2017. As the demographics make UK students increasingly sought after it’s another dynamic to consider.

AN ENGLISHMAN ABROAD AND THE MUSIC OF THE 1970s

The arrival of my vinyl records in San Diego after several years in storage reminded me that the 1970s has a good claim to be the most dynamic, diverse and distinctive periods in music history. It’s difficult to explain to Americans what the UK was like in the era of the three-day week, mass industrial pickets, two elections in a year and a bail out from the IMF. For teenagers it was a time of entertainment poverty with just three TV channels, pocket money running to one single a fortnight and the Odeon cinema chain offering lumpy seats and tacky floors.

The great British music wave of the 1960s had sold out with the Beatles and the Stones leading the pursuit of the mighty dollar, then Led Zeppelin and the Who following in hot pursuit. Eric Clapton, once the blues guitar ‘God’ of Islington graffiti legend, was pursuing heroin, alcohol and Patti Boyd. And the dubious home-grown ‘folk rock’ was as derivative and limp as any movement spearheaded by a band called Fairport Convention could be.

The US musical response to Vietnam and Watergate was Album Oriented Rock (AOR), with noted DJ “Kid Leo” Travagliante confirming in 1975, ‘the emphasis is shifting back to entertainment instead of being ‘relevant”. But the intersection of social circumstances, lack of commercial radio and the need to re-find a musical identity made the UK more fertile territory for invention. Gender identity, feminism, anti-racism and social justice became the battlegrounds with music providing the soundtrack.

In the early 1970s ‘glam rock’ may have looked like an effort to put tinsel on the increasingly sputtering and stalling UK economy. But its glimpse of gender fluidity and theatrics opened a door which could never be closed. The Sweet, Slade, Marc Bolan didn’t make it across the Atlantic but without them there might have been no global behemoths like Bowie, Queen or Elton John.

With a starting output of seven albums David Bowie bestrode the decade like a colussus. He started 1971 wearing a dress on the Marlene Dietrich influenced cover of Hunky Dory, occupied, the bodies of Ziggy Stardust and Alladin Sane, then became the Thin White Duke. And he still had time to complete his Berlin trilogy and offer us Sound and Vision, Heroes and Boys Keep Swinging.

Bowie voguing for the cover of Hunky Dory

Queen was formed in 1970 with their first top ten single Seven Seas of Rye hitting the top ten in 1974. Surely, one of the greatest places in music history must have been Montreux in 1981 as Bowie and Mercury collaborated and competed to produce Under Pressure. Bowie’s judgement, and status as the coolest person on the planet, was re-confirmed when Coldplay sent him their best effort and suggested collaboration – he declined with the line ‘it’s not a very good song, is it’.

The 1970s was the musical decade where women moved decisively, both individually and collectively, from lead singers to leaders of the gang. Fictional, all-female rock band, The Carrie Nations, had to be created for the 1970 film Beyond the Valley of the Dolls (1970) and Suzie Quatro, despite her long-term garage band pedigree, was an oddity at the start of the decade. But by 1979 Patti Smith, Siouxsie Sue and Chrissie Hynde reflected the changed circumstances

And in terms of feminist anthems and icons it is hard to get beyond Poly Styrene of X-Ray Specs. Mixed race (Somali and Scottish), dental-braces and bipolar might have seemed unpromising material when she started her own punk band at the age of 18. But Oh Bondage Up Yours was a primal response to the challenge that ‘some people think that little girls should be seen and not heard’.

Poly Styrene was given the space to perform by the musical equivalent of Martin Luther hammering his 95 theses to the castle door in Wittenberg. Punk was born in 1976, a year when inflation hit 24%, Britain went cap in hand for a bail out from the International Monetary Fund, and youth unemployment was rampant. The musical opposition was the nurdling, self-indulgent prog-rock of ELP, Yes, Genesis and Jethro Tull and the attitude was reminiscent of Marlon Brando’s response, in the Wild Ones (1953) to the question “What are you rebelling against?” – “whadda you got?”.

Punk may have borrowed from the riffs and attitudes of the Ramones, New York Dolls and Iggy Pop but, perhaps because the UK is a small island, its musical and social influence was electrifying. It defined the schism between the baby boomers and Generation-X, injected energy into a moribund music industry and opened the door for individuality. It’s inclusivity included the ska revival, reggae’s rise and opened the door for everybody to sing Glad to Be Gay in pubs, on marches and at parties.

But everything that has ever been written about punk can be ignored. Just find an old-fashionedrecord player, turn it to maximum volume and play Pretty Vacant, followed by White Riot and Oh Bondage Up Yours. Look at contemporary pictures of skinheads, right wing thugs and teddy boys trying to beat the crap out of bondage-trousered, spike haired, spotty kids.

That is the sound and vision of the new order replacing the old sensibilities. It’s also the look ofyoung people standing up against racism and social injustice while being scorned by their Government and frowned on by their parents. The disempowerment of what had become known as the blank generation was converted into a belief that chutzpah and energywere enough to make a difference.

Even as I spin the vinyl I realise that music alone never makes a difference and that youth movements are rapidly appropriated bycorporate interests. But for a brief period the youth of the UK took control, in a way that encouraged and celebrated diversity, valued integrity and effort above virtuosity, and changed the direction of travel. Order was eventually restored but only after new icons and values had crept through the gaps.