Things seem to be moving fast as the big pathway players realise that winter is coming, both physically and metaphorically, to their US operations. Hot on the heels of the recent Study Group closures there are strong rumors of Navitas reviewing its US partnerships and cutting staff. Shorelight has also taken action through changes to its senior management team and staff lay-offs in the past month.
The Navitas partner changes are still at the point of speculation and no brand names have been removed from the list of partners as of today. But the ‘Search Navitas programs’ area of the website turns up no results for Virginia Commonwealth University, Richard Bland College or University of Idaho. Searches for University of New Hampshire courses lead to a broken ‘this page isn’t working’ link.* By contrast the Florida Atlantic University pages, UMass and Queen’s College pages seem fine, as do the Canadian university partner links.
Dr Brian Stevenson took up the reins as CEO and President of Navitas’ University Partnerships North America division at the start of this year. With his strong links to Canada it’s possible that there is a major shift of emphasis that would reflect the continuing popularity of Canada as a student destination. There certainly seems little prospect of any but the best or most market-oriented US universities being a profitable proposition in the near future.
In October InsideHigherEd noted the decline in Chinese student enrollments and its potential impact on US universities but the next news might be about the changing preferences of students from India. 2019 saw the UK have a 42% year on year increase in visas issued to Indian students and there is every sign that the coming year will see similar growth. With changes in post-study work visas coming into effect for 2020 enrollments universities and pathways are already reporting substantial interest.
Back in 2014 Karan Khemka, then a partner with the Parthenon Group, said: “The U.S. third-party/outsourced pathway market is less than half the size of the Australian market despite having a higher education system that is 10 times the size. We anticipate that growth will be constrained only by the pace at which private providers can develop the market.” That was one of the drivers for over $1bn of private investment being made in pathways.
The reality is that, with CEG and EC leaving the market, Study Group cutting back and Navitas now looking hard at its options, the past 18 months has seen a decrease of well over 10% in the number of US pathways. By contrast the UK and European pathway market continues to grow and Australia has just loosened its post-study visa regime a little further. It seems likely that this is the prevailing direction of travel for the foreseeable future.
*Searches undertaken on 30 October 2019. As with all commentary in this blog any authoritative comments or corrections are welcome and will be recorded.
Whenever I come to the UK I think of the album Atlantic Crossing despite it being one of Rod Stewart’s less worthy offerings. It’s mainly notable for the song Sailing which was recorded at Muscle Shoals at 10.30am while Stewart was, unusually for the time, singing, stone cold sober. He didn’t want it released as a single, but it became the theme song to a ten-week BBC Series about the aircraft carrier HMS Ark Royal and his best-selling UK release.
The song
was originally by the Sutherland Brothers, two folk-music playing brothers, whose
lyrical genius is shown by the fact that the second verse of a song entitled
Sailing contains the lines, ‘I am flying, like a bird, across the sky’. They later combined with rock group Quiver to
tour and record the undemanding pop song ‘Arms of Mary’. Quiver’s other claim to fame is that they
were the first band to play the legendary Rainbow Theatre in London.
So, a song
with a misleading title, by a folk/rock combo, sung by a sober Scottish singer
and on the album under protest becomes famous because of an aircraft carrier. It may not be the strangest tale in the
history of music, but it is as whimsical as some of the experiences of an
itinerant Englishman. And Atlantic
Crossing was Rod’s first effort to make his mark after moving to the US so I
feel a certain empathy.
My latest
sojourn to England has been enjoyable as ever but has shown that I am rapidly
becoming out of touch with the ways of the Angles. It’s not that I have totally forgotten
everything that was handed down by my forebears, but I have found myself doing
things that only a tourist does. It’s very
unnerving but a reminder that I am visiting rather than coming home.
I have forgotten
how to cross the road without endangering myself and every driver in the
area. I keep looking the wrong way and
stepping out full of confidence that nothing is going to hit me. After a few tries I have found that the only
way to be safe is to approach the road with my head swivelling like an owl in a
barn full of field mice.
After
eating I keep asking for the check (and yes in America it is a check even when
it is a cheque). Restaurant staff are
too polite to ask me if I am just being ironically trans-Atlantic or just
influenced by too many shandies. I usually
blush and stammer, ‘oops sorry, I meant bill, but I live in San Diego now….’,
before trailing off under a stare that suggests they really don’t care.
Arriving
without an umbrella was also not my best idea.
I had forgotten how much it rains in England and how, even when it is
not raining hard there is a misty, spitting sort of precipitation that leaves
you damp. All of this not helped by the
reality that older English hotels are delightful but not endowed with ways to
get warm or dry.
The good
thing about the weather is that I have been freed to have more baths in seven
days than I have in the last seven months.
At first, I was timid because I had got used to a shower routine that is
vital in a place where it doesn’t rain for nine months of the year and the
water bill makes H2O seem more valuable than gold. Once I got over my culture shock, I plunged
into a routine of baths both morning and night and have every intention of
squeezing in three during the last 18 hours before the plane.
I have lost
the ability to deal in the coins of the realm and had an uncomfortable moment
in the supermarket where I kept trying to feed the automatic checkout with a
fifty pence piece that wouldn’t work.
The shop assistant who came to my assistance was surprised enough to
blurt out loud that her grandfather had “some of those antique coins” in his collection. I reverted to paying for everything with
notes to save time and embarrassment but am left with a bag of metal for the
charity collection on the plane.
It has been
lovely to hear people speaking in accents and tones that are as redolent of my
youth as Manchester United getting relegated to the old second division. Both these features have mixed memories
because for every Norfolk burr there is an estuary sentence full of glottal
stops, dropped aitches and foul language.
And for every memory of the glorious recovery under Docherty and onwards
to Ferguson there is the sadness of watching incompetent management buy Ian Ure
from Arsenal, who became my constant nemesis as the worst player in United’s
history.
Difficult
to get this far without mentioning Brexit.
Truth is that it is difficult to know what to say and this is not the
place for a political rant about the ineptness of a referendum for such a
significant change to be based on a 50/50 vote.
Neither is it helpful for someone with their interests in another part
of the world to question the right of a minority government to drive
legislation that will change the future for millions.
Almost everyone I have spoken to has been sad but resigned to leaving the European Union. Some of the Scottish and Northern Irish seem steely eyed about taking a new opportunity for statehood, independence or realignment that places them back in the European fold. The Brexiteers, my favored name for the ‘Leavers’, continue to sound like a raddled, sulky, deceitful, agit-pop band, but seem uncertain about the “sunlit uplands” that await and even less sure about the veracity and quality of the politicians leading them.
Next time I return I believe it will be to a nation that is making its own way in the world. That was how it was when it became the land of the ‘mother of parliaments’, the lone defender against fascism and the leader of cultural and technical innovations that continue to influence creative enterprises around the world. My fingers are crossed that its future allows it to rediscover its courtesy and civility, be a beacon to the ambitious and the oppressed and, above all, a place to be proud of.
Getting contemporaneous data and sales targets from privately
held pathway providers is unusual. But
in a July 2019 podcast
interview, Sean Grant, Chief Recruitment
Officer of Shorelight Education, tells us that Shorelight recruited 3,000
students “last year” (presumably 2018/19) and are forecasting to recruit ”4,000
students plus this year.” Grant notes
that the 3,000 student figure for 2018/19 represented year-over-year growth of
35%, which suggests Shorelight recruited approximately 2,200 students in
2017/18.
It was equally enlightening to hear that the company continues
to invest heavily in building its sales function. Grant noted that Shorelight’s
US-based onshore recruitment team grew from five people to 28 in “about six weeks”
last year. While staff growth of this magnitude and pace is prodigious by most measures,
it may be the norm for a company that considers itself “the Amazon or the Google
of the…international education sector.”
Because Shorelight is a private company based in the US, it
has largely been able to maintain confidentiality around its economic
performance (unlike UK-based competitors, who are required to publicly disclose
annual financials). The Shorelight website shows 17 current
university partners, and a press
release announced their partnership with Cleveland State for fall 2019
recruitment, bringing the total to 18.
Grant referenced 19 partners in his interview, so it’s just possible we
may have had early notice of a new partner joining the portfolio.
Shorelight is now in its seventh year of operation since its mid-2013 inception. With the disclosure of recruitment numbers and the indication that the business continues to invest heavily in sales staffing, it’s worth drilling down to look at how the six public universities that signed early on with Shorelight are doing*.
Louisiana State University
Shorelight began recruiting for LSU in 2015 and since then
the university’s total enrollment of non-resident aliens have fallen from 1704
in fall 2015 to 1599 in fall 2019 according to the Geographical
Origin of Students spreadsheet.
Table 1 – Total Fall Enrollment of Non-Resident Aliens at Louisiana State University
Souce: LSU Fall Facts and Interactive Dashboard
In the form contract between LSU and Shorelight, publicly
disclosed by the State of Louisiana, the articulated enrollment goal for
the International Accelerator Program, i.e., the pathway, is 850
students in the ’fifth Academic Year of the IAP” (2020/21). Inside Higher Ed reported that in spring 2018 “there were just 136 students
enrolled,” and market
rumors suggest that recruitment remains a long way short of target. The absence
of overall international enrollment growth at LSU suggests that neither pathway
or direct recruitment are going to plan.
University of Kansas
There is a similar story at the University of Kansas where
the fifteen-year contract with Shorelight came under
fire from academics at the time it was signed in 2014. Sarah Rosen, then Vice Provost for Academic Affairs at
KU (who has since moved to Georgia State), was reported to have articulated enrollment
aspirations of about
600 in two or three years. As Shorelight sought
and won an injunction preventing the release of the
contract, no further insight into the parties’ ambitions are available. As KU’s total fall enrollment of non-resident
aliens (termed international in the Factbook) has decreased during the relevant
period, it seems likely that this aspiration was not met.
Table 2 – Fall Enrollment of Internationals at University of Kansas
Auburn signed with Shorelight in 2015. The university’s online, interactive Factbook offers the option to filter enrollments by on-campus, “Primary Major” which includes the various “Auburn Global” programs offered in partnership with Shorelight. Enrollments rose substantially between 2015 and 2016 but have been in steady decline since. Overall, enrollments are largely undergraduate and Chinese.
Table 3 – Fall Enrolment to Auburn Global Courses at Auburn University
At the university level, the impact of the trends within
Auburn Global are clear: total international student enrollment has grown from
1639 in 2015 to 3034 in 2019, with the percentage of Chinese students going
from 46% to 62% during this same time. Obviously, the financial impact of 1400
additional students is material; however, the risk associated with such a large
proportion of students from a single source country, especially in the current
political climate, is palpable.
University of South Carolina
The Fall 2018 International Student Enrollment Report from USC captures the five-year picture on the university’s international recruitment. The International Accelerator Program (IAP) has helped push undergraduate numbers forward but its growth appears to have stalled. Of the total international enrollment for the university 40% of students are from China.
Table 5 – International Student Fall Enrollment – University of South Carolina
Source: USC Fall 2018 International Student Enrollment
Report
Florida International University and University of
Central Florida
Both of Shorelight’s Florida partners have seen strong growth in overall international enrollments. As a comparator, the University of South Florida, an INTO partner, saw total international enrollments grow by around 1500 between 2015 and 2018. This may reflect both the popularity of Florida as a destination for international students and that the three universities have lower fees than the others reviewed.
Table 6 – International Fall Enrollments at UCF and FIU
Source: Factbooks of Florida International University and Central Florida University
Summary
Some crude metrics emerge from the forecasted recruitment
outcomes mentioned in the podcast. If
Shorelight indeed recruits 4,000 students this year, the average number of
students recruited by each member of the 145-person sales team this year will
be 28, and the average number of recruited students per partner (assuming 18
partners) will be 222. Seasoned recruitment
professionals will have views on how that ratio stacks up in terms of
performance.
There will also be opinion on what the drive for 35% growth might mean in terms of cost of acquisition for US-bound students. As Inside Higher Ed reported in June 2018, promotional bonuses were already pushing agent compensation ”well north of the 15 percent threshold,” and it seems unlikely that this cost will have fallen. With the UK resurgent after reintroducing two year post-study work visas competition just got even tougher.
The closure of partnerships by Study Group, CEG and EC has provided insights into how difficult the US pathway business has become. The experience of the partners reviewed here suggest that, regardless of ranking, success can be elusive and only time will tell whether Shorelight’s strategy is a winner. Investment and targets are one thing, but brute market realities are quite another.
*University reporting formats are not wholly consistent. Extensive efforts have been made to verify data used and sources are given for reference. Authoritative comments or corrections are welcome.
Keeping
pace of the developing pathway scene among the private providers in the US requires
constant attention. Study Group has taken
action within its US portfolio and no longer recruits for four brands featured on
the company’s website a few months ago.
After this year’s closure of
CEG’s US centers and EC
Higher Education’s withdrawal from the market it’s further evidence of the
pressure on international student recruitment.
The closed Study Group pathways are Roosevelt, Widener and Merrimack while West Virginia was a direct recruitment option. The Merrimack relationship extended back over
a decade, Widener and Roosevelt were opened in 2012/13. West Virginia came online in January 2018
with recruitment commencing in fall 2018.
These changes leave Study Group with four regionally-ranked and seven nationally-ranked university partners according to USNWR 2020 listings. Among the nationally-ranked, two were taken over from EC while only three sit above 200: Baylor (79), Vermont (121) and DePaul (125). Three of the four remaining regionally ranked universities, Oglethorpe, Western Washington and Lynn were signed in 2017, so there may be contractual impediments to early action.
US News Ranking 2020 of Study Group US Partnerships (closed institution in red)
The Study
Group closures mean that, as far as I can track from public information, the
company has launched 14 university partnerships in the US of which five have now
been closed in the past two years.
Between CEG and Study Group more than 10% of US private-pathway provider
centers have closed in the past two years.
These tended to be smaller operations in terms of student numbers, but
it reflects the stress that the sector is under.
With UK international recruitment prospects resurgent under a new Post-Study Work regime, the growing quality of emerging options around the world and the continuing assertiveness of Canada, Australia and Germany, it’s probably time for a rethink.
It’s been the quietest year for nearly a decade in terms of announcements about new pathway partnerships in the US, and the 2019 Inside Higher Education (IHE) survey of College and University Admissions Officers suggests a shift in perceptions by institutions. The closure of several centers in the past year and disappointing enrollments at a number of institutions have given plenty of reason to be cautious. But faith persists in some sectors.
In the Survey only 12% of public doctoral institutions strongly agreed that “Pathway programs will become more important to US higher education in the current environment.” In the 2018 survey that percentage was 22%. Among Private Non/Profit Doctoral/Masters institutions, the percentage of respondents agreeing or strongly agreeing to the statement fell from 60% to 51%.
Table 1 – Pathway Programmes Importance to US Higher Education (IHE, 2018)
Table 2 – Pathway Programmes Importance to US Higher Education (IHE, 2019)
However, there has been an almost Damascene conversion among
Public Master’s/Baccalaureate institutions, where 28% now strongly agree in
pathways’ growing importance, compared to 15% last year. This is mirrored in the Private Non-profit
Baccalaureate section where 56% agree or strongly agree compared to 33% last
year. While, at an aggregate level the
survey shows declining enthusiasm for pathways it is clear that they still hold
an allure for some institutions.
The real question for the new enthusiasts will be whether the private pathway providers have much appetite for non-doctoral institutions. The portfolios of the ‘big two’, Shorelight and INTO, contain universities offering doctorates some have quite limited offerings. Study Group have a mixed bag of institutions and recently some at non-degree level in Canada, and Navitas has some non-doctoral universities on the roster.
Potential for new, high-profile partners may become even
more limited as stronger US institutions become increasingly comfortable with
their capacity and capability to manage enrollments without resorting to a
third party. While, to date pathway
providers have been the more likely party to terminate partnerships empowered or
disappointed universities might begin to question underperforming relationships
or decide they can do better alone. The
scene is set for more turbulence as people come to terms with the new global
mobility conditions.
Furthermore, the UK’s move to institute a two-year Post
Study Work (PSW) visa for students enrolled from 2020 may bring further
pressure and undermine the US’s position as a favored destination for
international students. After a 33%
surge in Chinese undergraduate applications to the UK for 2019/20, the UK Home
Office reported
that the number of Indian students choosing to study in the UK increased 42%
from June 2018 to June 2019. It is
likely that following the PSW announcement, India’s numbers will continue to
grow rapidly for the 2020 intake.
Alongside that, the US is heading for an election year where
the future of global relationships, student visas and existing post-study
options could be part of the political debate.
Just as the financial markets dislike turbulence it is difficult to see
why a student would choose to invest in an uncertain future. The relatively safe havens and emerging,
quality options around the world could seem increasingly attractive.
For Study Group and Navitas any difficulties in recruitment
to the US will be mitigated by increasing momentum behind their considerable
portfolios in other parts of the world.
INTO’s mix is more finely balanced but its recent focus has been on the
US and it has just lost the University of Gloucestershire as a UK pathway
partner. Shorelight is wholly US based
and will face the full force of global headwinds.
It certainly seems likely that pressure on sales teams, cost
of acquisition and other “promotional” tactics will increase. Local difficulties, such
as those Shorelight are facing in Kuwait, will also impact on the ability
to recruit sufficient students for existing partners let alone new ones. Life is unlikely to get any easier in the
short term and may get a lot worse, which might seem to mitigate against
continuing expansion, particularly with sub-optimal partners.
However, ‘doubling down’ is a popular phrase in the US and has come to mean ‘to strengthen one’s commitment to a particular strategy or course of action, typically one that is potentially risky.’ The IHE survey suggests that at least one sector of the market is increasingly interested if pathway operators have the appetite. But in terms of recruitment it might be worth remembering that, as the UK’s ‘Iron Lady’, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher said in 1997, ”you can’t buck the market.”
There’s plenty of jubilation over the re-introduction of two-year Post-Study Work visas and congratulations are due to those who lobbied for it. But it’s worth remembering that Government’s rarely give something without wanting something in return and that every gift horse should be given careful scrutiny. In that context there are a few things to look out for over the coming weeks, months and years.
Drift, Detail
and Design
A ‘popular’
announcement from a Government under pressure is often rushed out with detail
and other policy intent still needing to be tidied up. The Home Secretary’s announcement that the
new Graduate Route ‘will
mean talented international students, whether in science and maths or
technology and engineering, can study in the UK…’ was curious in the
context of a scheme allowing all graduates to stay. It’s mirrored on the Home Office website and
may provide cover for a later tightening of the rules to specific subjects.
A Step Forward But…
Some details of PSW are still to be announced but it seems slightly short of the Australian (two to four years) and Canadian (up to three years) schemes. It is not yet clear if families can join the PSW graduate as in Australia and it seems doubtful that there will be any room for promoting it as a route to permanent residence as Canadian institutions do. And there is always the potential for both those countries to step up their offer to become even more competitive.
The
economic direction of travel for the UK post-Brexit is uncertain but
universities have been drawn very directly into discussions about employability
and the value of a degree. It’s easy to allow PSW in an era of historically low
unemployment, currently around 4%, but if recession hits and unemployment
climbs it is equally simple to remove it.
Trends in numbers and careers of home graduates may factor in that equation.
Table 1 – UK Unemployment 2000-2013
Grounds
for Home Student Fee Reduction
The HE sector made an enormous song and dance about the contribution of international student fees but may find being granted it has unintended consequences. With increasing international students providing a major economic stimulus to universities there is fertile ground for populist and electioneering proposals to cut fees for home students and increase investment in school and FE. It’s probably helpful that international students also prop up the economics of many STEM courses and postgraduate study.
Limiting
HE Investment to Support Other Priorities
Universities may hope the Augar Review has been
buried but newspaper headlines about ‘low value’ courses, universities
manipulating applications, grade inflation and VC pay are unlikely to have been
totally forgotten. More importantly,
more money from international students gives grounds to support more popular or
political priorities. It was interesting
to see Chancellor Sajid ‘I went to my local FE College’ Javid, Spending Round announcement
include an increase for further
education funding in the 2019 spending round and increasing ‘school
spending by £7.1 billion by 2022-23, compared to this year.’
International
Fees For EU Students
One of the arguments against introducing international fees for EU students post-Brexit has been that it will cause a significant decline in their numbers. A surge in traditional international fee-paying students attracted by PSW makes up those numbers and would allow EU students to work as PSW international students without a more complex arrangement with Europe. Making EU students ineligible for UK student loans would also eliminate headlines like ‘Thousands of EU students fail to repay loans.’
Never Mind the Quality
Feel the Width
It is arguable that strong brands perceived as high quality or with potent strategies for recruitment have not been particularly troubled by the lack of post study work visas. Eight Russell Group universities each increased their first-year international student intakes by over 27% over the two years from 2015/16 to 2017/18. Even beyond that Group there are clear winners who achieved significant growth including De Montfort (+78%) and the University of East London (+90.6%).
For some
universities these were grim years with five institutions each seeing their intake
decline by over 300 students. PSW is
likely to see such institutions making up for lost time and revenue by driving
international numbers up but the quality of the intake may suffer. PSW as the driver for attracting less able
international students to cash-strapped universities is not a particularly
lofty ideal.
Competition
for Places and Jobs
The potential
for significant upturns in volumes of international students comes just as the upswing
occurs in home student demographics with
HEPI suggesting the need for up to 300,000 additional university places by 2030. This sets the scene for potential conflict
between home students and international students – particularly if home fees go
down and institutions are looking towards the economics. The OECD’s Education
at A Glance 2019 noted, ‘there is a risk of squeezing out qualified
national students from domestic tertiary educational institutions that
differentiate tuition fees by student origin, as they may tend to give
preference to international students who generate higher revenues through
higher tuition fees”.
It’s suggested that in 2019 around 1,000 places were reserved for international students in Clearing and the economics may push institutions to favouring international students over home students just as home demand steps up. It is only a short step to stories about debt-laden home graduates being unemployed because universities are enticing increasing amounts of international competition for early career jobs. At that point the freedom of PSW may find itself subject to increasing scrutiny and Government intervention.
Conclusion
A benevolent PSW policy is to be welcomed where it builds on the reputation of the sector for quality and is part of a strategic approach to supporting higher education’s potential as a major contributor to global influence as well as the UK’s economic and cultural development. It is also possible that the recent announcement was carefully planned and is the start of a period of unprecedented benevolence towards higher education in the UK. But history and context suggest that things are rarely so simple.
Having
completed my own Brexit nearly two years ago I hadn’t expected too much more
from my home country. But the political
meanderings over two years since the vote have been the gift that keeps on
giving. And over the past two weeks I have been in higher demand than usual by
US acquaintances looking for answers.
Being an
authoritative source on all matters British and political has its
responsibilities. That hasn’t prevented
me claiming that every time anyone in the UK says ‘the Queen’ or ‘Her Majesty’
they have to add ‘God Bless Her’. But by
and large I have been a serious commentator on what are extraordinary times.
It’s very
difficult to explain the role of the Queen (God Bless Her) in a Parliamentary
democracy. There is also a touching
faith in this ex-colony that she is the smartest person in the country and should
just step in to direct MPs on which way is up.
It’s particularly difficult to explain that she has to avoid becoming involved
in politics.
That leads
to a whole bunch of unanswerable questions about why she gets to pick the Prime
Minister, give Royal Assent to Bills to make them law, and why it’s Her
Majesty’s Government. This gets
compounded when I comment that Boris Johnson’s majority would have been lost
long ago if the Sinn Fein members chose to sit.
I’d invite everyone to work out why a democratically elected Member of
Parliament can’t sit because they won’t swear allegiance to someone who has no
direct authority over them.
The House
of Lords is another source of mystery and amusement to an incredulous
American. The notion of an unelected
group being able to stymie the progress of Bills passed by elected MPs is as mystifying to me as anyone. I have taken to calling them the House of
Unrepresentatives and relying on interminable, dull, repetitive detail to bore
my listeners – a bit like an ordinary day in the House of Lords really.
For the interested
(and this is a bit of a pop quiz for readers in the UK) I explain that the full name is the Right
Honourable the Lords Spiritual and Temporal of the United Kingdom of Great
Britain and Northern Ireland in Parliament Assembled. It meets in a Palace and
doesn’t have a fixed size but its make up includes 92 hereditary peers, 26 bishops,
and a bunch of people appointed by the Queen (God Bless Her). At this point I usually have to confirm that
Her Majesty remains above politics and only acts on advice.
One
contention of the Americans is that this is a separation of powers issue which
arises because we don’t have a written Constitution. My first line of defence is to argue that it
is difficult to see how a document written in the 1780s is entirely fit for
purpose over 220 years later and they spend a lot of time in court arguing over
interpretations. A little more smugly, I
usually go on to point out that the first ten amendments, passed in 1791, are
largely based on Magna Carta (1215) and the English Bill of Rights (1689).
Talk
then turns to the machinations in Parliament and the role of the Prime
Minister. Here, the difficulty is that
there is a tendency to confuse his role and powers with those of the President
in the US. There is some consternation
but also some envy when I explain that the Prime Minister is not elected by the
populace and that there’s a reasonable tradition of Prime Ministers being
ousted by their own party.
Explaining
the powers of the Prime Minister is a bit like trying to explain dark
matter. Aficionados believe it is exists
and there is even a reasonable theoretical basis for suggesting it makes a real
difference. But every time push comes to
shove the evidence disappears as quickly as a manager of Chelsea football club.
Boris
Johnson losing his first three or four votes has made this even more
complicated than explaining how Theresa May’s rose to the top political post in
the UK after a career with no visible achievements. Equally difficult is
explaining why Boris has been able to instantly make the leader of the
opposition look like a statesman of gravitas, sense and focus. And neither is as satisfying as explaining
that Jo Johnson’s election and appointment to a Government post was nothing
like the rise of Ivanka and Jared to positions of authority in the White
House.
Speaking
of Jo Johnson reminds me that Brexit has been a goldmine for memes. My favourite three currently are:
Jo Johnson resigned to spend less time with his family
James Bond to the Queen ‘The Members of Parliament,
Ma’am?’. The Queen, ‘Yes, 007, all
of them’
The picture of Jacob Rees-Mogg lounging on a bench in the
House of Commons being turned into a brilliant visual where he is cuddled by a
topless man
Grimmer,
but beautifully framed in its righteous scorn, was a comment in the speech by
Sir Nicholas Soames after being removed from the Conservative party for voting
against the Government. He commented on
the actions of ‘…my right-honourable friend the Prime Minister, the Leader of
the House and other members of the Cabinet whose serial disloyalty has been an
inspiration for so many of us.’ Truth, humour
and sadness captured in a dozen words.
All
this has a serious side and for expats the gloom of the falling pound has only
been matched by the sense that the country is being ridiculed for its
introspection and in-fighting. But then,
almost miraculously, another day of extraordinary tension showed a silver
lining and confirmed something I had been saying for months to my American
friends.
I had
patiently explained that MPs are representatives and therefore have a duty to
do what they think is in the best interests of their constituents even if their
constituents didn’t agree. I also said
that MPs could and would vote against their party on issues of conscience. The voting, changing of party and ousting of
members from the conservative party brought this home in spectacular style.
It was a matter of enormous pride to see MPs face down bullying, threats and the prospect of their careers ending in order to vote in the national interest. For those I know in the US it was great theatre but it has been interesting to see them reflect that partisan politics mean it has become impossible to imagine such a widespread demonstration of individual accountability in their Senate. At least members of the Mother of Parliaments, for all the chaos, have shown their willingness to take responsibility whatever the personal cost.
Watching the Rolling
Stones in the Pasadena Rose Bowl was the closest I’m ever likely to get to
seeing the Royal Family reinstated in the land of the free. Over 90,000 people gathered in a shrine to
American Football to celebrate English icons.
And the best bit was that for the first time in several years I think I
brought down the average age of attendees.
The Rose Bowl is a
grand old stadium that is celebrated as a National Historical Landmark and will
be 100 years old in 2022. That means it
is just 15 years older than Stones founding member Bill Wyman who turns 82 this
year. It’s extraordinary to think that
Bill left the band more than 25 years ago but even more so to learn that Darryl
Jones stepped in immediately and has been the bass player ever since. Who knew?
From Street Fighting Man to Jumping Jack Flash the concert was a reminder of the immeasurable contribution made to modern music by English bands. The lineage from the Stones, through Led Zeppelin, to the Clash and onwards to Oasis is distinct from the impact of the Celtic nations. At a parochial level it was a great pleasure to be an Englishman in an arena where 90,000+ Americans were idolising and pouring adulation on my countrymen.
Anyone who wants to see the power of the Stones and their hold over the American psyche should watch the launch of Windows 95 video. It is also the ultimate solace to anyone who has ever been accused of Dad dancing. Watching Gates, Allen et al dancing to Start Me Up as if they having a shared session of electro-convulsion therapy is both joyous and deeply troubling.
But as you listen you
realise that the most famous songs have lyrics that are about everywhere and
nowhere. Shakespeare has universal
appeal because he wrote about the human condition. The Stones may have universal appeal because
they mainly write about a world which is, at one and the same time, human but
beyond reach.
We may be able to just
about relate to the notion that ‘sleepy London town is just no place for a
street fighting man’ but ‘Gold Coast
slave ship bound for cotton fields’ and ‘gin soaked bar room queen in Memphis’
are from a different world. It may be
that ‘we can’t get no satisfaction’ but I doubt many were ‘born in a crossfire
hurricane’. Which may be why the song
which sits calmly at the centre of the chaos, darkness and sleaze is the
plaintive recognition that ‘you can’t always get what you want’.
The lyrics seem a strange paradox because there is something quintessentially English about the Stones. For all their international presence, global sales and foreign homes they are recognisably wannabees from the Home County suburbs near London. Hillingdon, Kingsbury and Dartford are close enough to the bright lights to feel part of the city but far enough away to be desperate for recognition.
A difference between the Stones and the Beatles is that the latter seemed much more parochial in writing about Penny Lane, Strawberry Fields and range of saccharine love songs. Even when they used the American ‘meter maid’ to sing about Lovely Rita it was only because traffic warden didn’t scan. The schism between little Englanders and global citizens was played out again in the 1970s between The Clash and The Jam and, in my view, there was only ever going to be one winner.
But when they gathered round to do an acoustic set interlude of Sweet Virginia it was just possible to imagine them in any country pub in the South of England. Particularly one where the landlord didn’t want the amplifiers up too loud or any of that aggressive rock nonsense. No matter, because they posed and postured, preened and performed with total self-assurance.
There were, however,
plenty of differences to an English pub setting and $16 dollars for a very average
Mexican lager makes sure that nobody gets too drunk. But that didn’t stop the guy in the seat next
to me parting company with his nachos half-way through Sympathy for the Devil. It may have been linked to do with the
overpoweringly sweet smell of legal but increasingly strong weed.
When you see the
Stones you are reminded of the power of story-telling and myth. They are characters that you think you know
and about who you form opinions which may be totally at odds with their real
personalities. But they are as venerable
and venerated as those on the Civil List and it struck me that comparisons were
reasonable.
Charlie Watts reminds
me of the slightly dotty uncle who talks to vegetables and frets about
deteriorating architectural standards so he must be the Prince Charles of the
group. He looks vaguely embarrassed to
still be behind the drums at his age and as if he would much prefer to be home
with a cup of cocoa and his slippers on.
Difficult to reconcile that with the story that he once punched Jagger
in the face for daring to demand, “where is MY drummer?”
A relative latecomer,
although in the band since 1975, Ronnie Woods’ spiritual home has always been
the Stones. The passing resemblance to
Keith Richards has faded with time (and Keith’s receding hairline) but Woods epitomises
the younger brother who is full of energy and mischief. Ronnie doesn’t carry the burden of being the
monarch or next in line for the crown so, like Prince Harry, he wants to appear
useful but is subsidiary to the real power in the Firm.
If there was no Keith Richards
there would be no Brown Sugar, Satisfaction, Honky Tonk Woman or Angie and the
Stones would be a footnote in history.
Keith may no longer ‘eat iron and piss rust’ but he has always set the musical
tone for the band while being content to work with guitarists of greater
technical flair and flamboyance. As the
spiritual leader Keith is akin to the Queen because his influence pervades the
stage and the mood of the band without needing to do more than embody its
history. And, from time to time, he asserts himself like an absolute monarch
with an immortal riff or a rude, swampy lick from his spiritual home in the
Mississippi delta.
And that leaves Sir Michael Jagger – his Satanic majesty and the model for every starstruck lead singer of a rock n roll band since the early 1960s. A complete package of manufactured south London accent, snake hips, amphetamine energy, crazy good voice and nearly sixty years of stagecraft. He is totally mesmerising and delivers the message of the band while rarely standing still, let alone alongside them. I doubt any modern royal has carried themselves with such a sense of omnipotence and my metaphor rather fades.
But, in having sympathy for the old devil, I am reminded of Prince Philip being hospitalised at the age of 95, after standing in the rain for three hours during 2012’s Diamond Jubilee Celebrations. He paid the price for delivering, almost recklessly, what his position demanded, out of a sense of duty and pride. Mick Jagger’s recent heart surgery is a similar reminder of inevitable human frailty and what will be lost eventually, but his performance was a joyous and inspirational celebration of what it means to be forever young.
It’s a bit early to predict final international student (excluding European Union) recruitment outcomes from the UK undergraduate Clearing season but the first week often gives some direction. There’s also some anecdotal feedback on how institutional and student strategies might be shaping up and what it means for the broader sector. There’s a long way to go with the season largely defined by the last date on which international students can get visas to study.
Looking at international students who have been ‘placed’ there has been a slightly surprising decline in year on year (YOY) growth over the first week. On A-Level day (Day 0) 6.7% (2,120) more students had been placed than in 2018 and the number holding an offer was up 5.6% at 16,860. By Day 8 the placed YOY increase was only 5.2% at 1,900 although offer holders were up 9.5% at 12,120.
Table 1 – Year on Year Differences In Place Students
Source: UCAS
NB: Each bar reflects the difference on the year before i.e. bars for 2016 reflect the difference compared to the corresponding UCAS reporting days in 2015
The deeper context is strong growth in international student application growth measured at 8% at the 30 June UCAS deadline with a particular surge in applicants from China. There are suggestions that the growth in applicants has allowed institutions to be more selective which seems likely at a point where there is more demand than supply. An alternative, or perhaps complementary, take is that students are also being choosier and taking the opportunity to shop around before accepting an offer.
Plenty Still
To Play For
While conversion tends to slow very quickly after the first week of Clearing the pool of 12,120 offer holders suggest that there’s plenty to play for. Trying to project numbers forward it may be reasonable to take last year’s outcome as a guide. In 2018 the pool of those holding an offer on Day 8 was 11,070 and by Day 28 of clearing the total number placed had grown by 18.8% of that number.
A similar result in 2019 would mean that Day 28 in 2019 would see 40,430 placed students which would be a growth of 5.5% YOY. It’s a rough and ready calculation and at Day 8 there were still a record number of over 30,000 students free to be placed in Clearing. Whichever way you cut it this looks like a good year for the sector.
Another factor is that the numbers published by UCAS only cover the main scheme applicants and do not reflect those who might have used a Record of Prior Application* (RPA) to bypass the system. As I noted in a blog in December 2018 this route has been growing quite rapidly, with just over 6% of the total number of students using the RPA route in 2018 compared to 3.9% in 2014 and just 4.8% in 2017. Further growth would bring even more upside in recruitment for universities.
A Good
Year But Beware The Fog
There may
be even better news for the sector because there is reasonable feedback from some
pathway operators and sixth form colleges suggesting that they are having a
bumper year. One commentary has
suggested that students unable to get direct entry into well-ranked
universities of choice are choosing to take pathway courses at those
universities. Even more encouragingly the
buoyancy seems widespread and there is likely to be welcome relief for some
universities that have seen significant declines in international student
volume in recent years.
The
undergraduate numbers are the smaller part of the international recruitment picture
but there is no reason to believe that postgraduate numbers are not doing at
least as well and probably better. All
this before the likely reintroduction of a more powerful post-study work option
and the removal of international students from immigration statistics. It bodes well for the near-term future of the
UK sector at a point when the US seems to be mired in difficulties that are
unlikely to be corrected quickly.
Against this background experienced international recruiters will remember Clausewitz’s dictum that, ‘the factors on which action..is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty’ – it’s the basis for the popular phrase ‘fog of war’. Brexit continues to loom over the sector with no real clarity over long-term decisions on the fee status of European Union students. Concerns must also remain over reliance on one dominant source country when the rise in UG applications was substantially driven by students from China.
*Record of Prior Acceptance – where an application is submitted to UCAS by a provider, when an unconditional firm has been offered and accepted by the applicant. These are not recorded in the daily Clearing analysis and will be reported after the cycle has closed.
It’s been a
good summer of football with the Women’s World Cup reaching delightful heights
of quality and tension, the Copa America being as unpredictable and bad
tempered as usual, and the CONACAF matches reminding me of the enormous
potential in Haiti and Jamaica. The
latter even brought new information when I realised that Curacao was not just
the liqueur fuelling the Big Easy Blue Punch cocktail, but was also a part of
the Netherlands in the south Caribbean.
With a viewing drought of 30 days until the Premier League kicks off it’s
a good moment to reflect on the game and its future.
Watching
football (and I will stay with that rather than soccer) in a land where there
was no professional league until 1995 is not quite the same as being in England. The American experience does not yet have the
sense of the shared history, rivalry and folklore which can be part of any pub
conversation in the UK. And it’s
particularly difficult to find anyone to reminisce with about the way the game
is changing.
Having said
that I recently mentioned the might Ron Yeats, in the context of a discussion
about the value of Virgil Van Dyck to Liverpool FC, and was appalled to find
that an English-born supporter of the Anfield team didn’t know the name. It was difficult to accept that the man
Shankly called a ‘Colossus’ has been forgotten by a fan, even when big Ron’s
last game was before the supporter was born.
There is something very wrong, but mildly ironical, about a world where
a Manchester United fan is giving history lessons about Liverpool to a scouser.
Some change
in the game is for the better and the rise in popularity and coverage of
women’s football is one example. The USL
W-League was formed in 1995 and became the first national football league in
the US providing an outlet for professional players. It beat the start of the US men’s league by a
year so all hail to Long
Island Lady Riders, the first champions.
And all respect to the American women’s national team who became
four-time World Cup winners at the end of a thrilling and brilliant competition.
The only
downside of watching on this side of the Atlantic is that US commentators and
pundits still need to up their game in commentary. When I hear someone is ‘on the dribble’ I
assume they are two years old and teething, and ‘service’ is something that I
get at restaurants not when the ball is passed, crossed or played. It’s jarring to listen to, as is the
incessant chatter when I am perfectly able to watch the pictures.
Even worse though is the
way that Video
Assistant Refereeing (VAR) has become a point of contention and
frustration. Allied to the constant
tinkering with the rules by FIFA and the current debacle around what
constitutes handball, it has ruined several matches. All of this has contributed to a rising
penalty count which is distorting games and undermining the authority of the
referee.
The
statistics tell a grim story – the introduction of VAR for the men’s World Cup
in Russia 2018 contributed to an increase to 29 penalties after only 13 in
Brazil 2014. When the count is done for
the Women’s World Cup we should also include the retaken penalties as
goalkeepers came off their line a split-second before the kick was taken. The real problem is that in a game where
scores tend to be low the award of a penalty (with about an 80% chance of
scoring) has a disproportionate impact on play and outcomes.
Another
problem with VAR is that it brings a serious dislocation from the game that is
played by millions around the world.
Without instant replays and super, high-definition slow motion there is
little choice but to live with the decisions of the referee. It is character forming and gives great
lessons about the unfairness of life, the wonder of a bit of luck and proof
that the universe really does not care.
For well
over a century football has remained deeply familiar and played to the same
rules and in the same way all around the world.
Pitches that resembled mud-baths have been replaced by billiard table
smoothness, legalised (and roundly applauded) violence in the tackle is now
outlawed and vigorously punished, whlle character,
paunch and a pint (or two) on the morning of the match have been forgotten for
7% body fat, anodyne interviews and designer water. But the greatest point of connection is that
the game played in a park on a Sunday is, at a fundamental level, governed the
same way as the Champions League final.
It seems to
me that this is a good principle and that if we are to have assistant
refereeing by video it should be limited to matters of fact. I am in favour of VAR for offside and for
digital proof that a ball has or has not crossed the goal-line. That’s as long as the decision is made
quickly and signalled clearly to the watching spectators.
But hand-ball, particularly when there is no blatant movement of the arm or unreasonable attempt to block the ball, will almost always be a matter of opinion. Similarly, ‘dangerous play’ incidents, like the penalty given against the Dutch in the Women’s World Cup final, should be left to the referee with only serious and evident foul play being subject to VAR when officials miss them. These decisions are part of the game and fans will always argue about them whether or not VAR intervenes with an equally ambiguous view.
