Month: January 2026

It’s often difficult to decide whether universities and the government are living in la la land¹ given their level of disconnection with the realities of student life and graduate prospects.  What has become ever clear is that they are expecting students to live on the never never² with a promotional message about the benefits of higher education based on magical thinking, pixie dust and a belief in fairies.  Around 44% of students starting in 2024/25 are expected never to repay their loans which is better than the 68% of the 2022/23 cohort but comes at a very high cost to many young people.

Nurses repaying more than £5,000 in four years but seeing their debt rise by  £20,000 due to interest rates and more than 150,000 with student loan debts over £100,000 are the tip of a very ugly iceberg that is likely to hole the credibility of higher education as a route to a better life below the waterline.  Having Plan 2 students paying 3% above RPI and wringing hands about the mental health impact of student debt and low-paid jobs for new graduates is a national disgrace.  Despite the warning signs and just like the Titanic there is no fundamental change of direction or speed which looks increasingly like negligence, arrogance or stupidity.

“All the world is made of faith, and trust, and pixie dust.”

For many years successive governments and the higher education sector have collaborated, some might say conspired, to sell a dream of higher wages, better jobs and more security to young people.  This is despite the government’s own statistics showing that the annual real median salaries of both undergraduates (down 11.7%) and postgraduates (down 16.9%) have been declining since 2007.  By comparison non-graduate salaries have decreased by 2.5% over the period.

In 2020, the Institute for Fiscal Studies estimated that “…around one in five undergraduates would have been better off financially had they not gone to university.”  In 2025, even David Willetts was obliged to note in a polemic arguing in favour of higher education “..there is no hiding from some uncomfortable findings”.  His grasp of current realities was probably best illustrated by his use of long Kingsley Amis quotes from 1960 (Encounter)³ and 1954 (Lucky Jim) at the start of his paper.

Another sign of the shifting tides is that in 2025 the rise in the National Minimum Wage to £25,500 makes it a higher sum than the salary for 10% of advertised graduate jobs.  The most recent changes to the student loan scheme (Plan 5) means that graduates on minimum wage are obliged to start paying their student loan.  When the minimum wage increases by 4% in April 2026 the overlap between graduate and non-graduate starter salaries and will only increase.

“Do you believe in fairies? If you believe, clap your hands!”

It is remarkable how often the sector trumpets research focused on current university students as a proxy for continuing demand in a university education in the future.  When you have started a course your propensity for post-purchase rationalization or choice-supportive bias is high.  The sunk-cost fallacy should also temper some of the wilder claims about belief in the value of higher education sector.

Perhaps of more interest is the YouGov report from mid-2025, which indicated that two-thirds of current students  thought “the standard of education and the wages graduates earn are not enough to warrant the cost of English/ Welsh university degrees”.  It’s a stark reminder that even if current students think they might get a better job or higher wages they are not willing to applaud universities as being value for money.  A third of these students didn’t expect to ever pay of their student loan but probably had little appreciation of the long term impact of everlasting monthly repayments on their future standard of living.

Even research after graduation showing high levels of belief in the importance of getting a degree indicates that 35% would have chosen “to do things differently” in terms of the course, location or other factors.  At the very least this suggests that advice ahead of taking a degree is inadequate.  With more than 700,000 university graduates out of work and many citing “health reasons” there are probably many graduates who are more sceptical about the value of their investment of time and effort.

More troubling for the sector may be that the tide of public opinion seems to be moving against them when it comes to value.  Research suggests that in 2018 only 18% of people did not consider university education worth the time and money but in 2024 this had grown to 31%.  It is particularly notable that the 25-34 age group in the survey had 48% saying university was not worth it.

“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease for ever to be able to do it.”

For many years the argument was that graduates did better, lived longer and were happier than non-graduates.  It remains the stock in trade of the university pundits and mouthpieces who seem immune to the reality that past performance is no guarantee of future returns.  Their problem is that universities sit in a world where they talk to other universities and agree with each other.

Fortune magazine suggests that GenZ graduates in the UK are earning 30% less than millennials did.  In 2022 over 30% of graduates were in non-graduate work or unemployed after 15 months.   Another indicator is that the number of students beginning to repay their loans within two years of graduation has taken a significant fall, even amongst Russell Group graduates.

Over and above that new graduates are coming into a labour market which, on many counts, is more fraught and complex than for many years, and which some suggest may never recover.  In late 2025 graduate vacancies advertised were a third lower than the same time in 2024 with evidence that regional variations made this even worse for some new graduates.   Even if graduates can get a job the OECD suggests that four in ten are likely to be overqualified which is in the ballpark of Office for National Statistics research from 2019.

It is reasonable to reflect that the siren voices of higher education are keen to say that everything is in good order and that keeping a steady course is the right answer.  Universities UK say the country will “need more than 11 million extra graduates…to fill jobs in the UK by 2035”.  It is suggested that the report, “Jobs of the Future”, is based on analysis by Charlie Ball (of Jisc and Prospects) who appears to be a general source of upbeat news for those seeking it.

One claim in the report is that there will be a net increase of 10% “in jobs that require a degree over the next 20 years”.  It will be interesting to see how that plays against Morgan Stanley’s recent report indicating that the impact of AI is seeing UK firms cutting more jobs than are created at a faster rate than other major economies.  The suggestion is that young people and white-collar workers “are getting hit especially hard.”

Of course, it may be that only non-graduate jobs are being impacted by AI uptake.  It may be that there is an underlying growth in graduate level jobs that reflects the increase in the number of graduates available.  But, it may be that this an article of faith supporting sector led self-interest in recruiting new graduates.  If young people stop believing it’s a marketing story that will not fly.   

NOTES

1. The phrase la la land appeared in print in 1925 and appears to have been a contraction of the French phrase “ooh-la-la”.  It was popularized in the 1970s as referring to the idiosyncracies of Los Angeles (LA) and its movie industry.
2.  “Buying on the never never” was a phrase popularized in the UK in the 1960s and 1970s.  It reflected the growing use of hire purchase credit schemes to buy relatively expensive products like cars and household goods that could not be funded immediately from savings or wages.  For the suspicious, cautious and plain scared perjorative use of “the never never” was usually aimed at the aspirational middle-classes who were cast as living beyond their immediate means.
3. The story of Encounter magazine is fascinating.  It emerged from a meeting of CIA and MI6 representatives in 1951 with much of the funding coming covertly from the Foreign Office and the CIA-managed Congress for Cultural Freedom.  Loss of that funding was a primary cause of its demise.

The sub-headings are all attributed to James M. Barrie, author of the playPeter Pan or, The Boy Who Would Not Grow Up that was first performed in 1904 and published in 1928.  The first Peter Pan film adaptation was a 1924 silent movie from Paramount Pictures.  Disney’s version of Peter Pan was released in February 1953.

“Captain’s log, star date 12026.7…”

Those trying to lead higher education to a brighter future should consider insights from the voyages of the Starship Enterprise.  Circumstances have, after all, forced them on a mission “..to explore strange new worlds, to seek out new life and new civilizations, to boldly go where no man has gone before.”  Star Trekkin’, a 1980s tune from The Firm¹, is less profound but gives some useful headings and helpful direction.

There’s Klingons on the starboard bow

Whether its Klingons, Vidiians or Borgs – read intensifying competition, technological predation or switchback visa policies – it’s always good advice to understand the threat and accept it is not going away any time soon.

Captain Kirk once told the Klingon Chancellor, “Your father called the future, ‘The Undiscovered Country.’ People can be very frightened of change.”  For some in higher education that fear makes them cling to past glories and certainties or paralyses them from taking effective action.  The only answer is to accept that it gets tougher from here and nobody is going to bail them out.

The Vidiians harvested organs from others in order to survive.  Technology, from aggregators, to online delivery, to AI, will continue to undermine traditional models while “harvesting” sources of revenue, enrollment and academic standing.  These are realities that need facing rather than clinging to a mid-1900s model of higher education that is not going to be fit for purpose in the mid-2000s.

The weight of visa policies for international students are Borg-like in suggesting “resistance is futile”.  But griping about them, particularly where they reflect a Government’s intended response to public concerns, looks self-interested and out of touch.  Drawing inspiration from the character attributes of Captain Kirk – ingenuity, boldness, exceptional tactical thinking – is more likely to make your institution a better choice for those students that remain available.

Ye cannae change the laws of physics

Chief Engineer Scott said, “I can’t change the laws of physics” and higher education should accept that it is not able to withstand generational, demographic, economic and political realignment affecting the laws of supply and demand.  Physics is a good example because I was at the University of East Anglia when undergraduate physics was closed in the 1990s – it was expensive and didn’t recruit enough students to be viable.   For the record the university currently offers four undergraduate courses with Physics in the course title – times change.

Another thought-provoking quote from Scott is “the more they overthink the plumbing, the easier it is to stop up the drain.”  University leadership is full of very smart, if sometimes limited in experience, people who like to think they are playing three-dimensional chess when they should be focusing on not getting beaten at tic-tac-toe². Brilliant implementation, fabulous service, clear differentiation and an explicable value proposition will always beat fifteen months of consultation spent developing a strategy that nobody reads let alone understands as offering a competitive advantage.

In short, stop travelling hopefully and wishing for what you can’t have.  

It’s worse than that he’s dead, Jim

As far as I can find Dr McCoy only ever said “He’s dead, Jim” but the import is the same.  It’s reported that at least 20 colleges in the US closed in 2024 with more than 40 closures since 2020.  The claim in the UK, where the proposed merger between the universities of Greenwich and Kent has recently been announced, is that half of the sector will post a deficit in 2026 and 50 providers may exit within three years.

The former seems small beer in the context of Clayton Christensen’s famous suggestion in 2017 that “50 percent of the 4,000 colleges and universities in the U.S. will be bankrupt in 10 to 15 years”.  Michael Horn’s update on the thinking from November 2024 is worth a visit for context and it is difficult to believe that the fundamentals will change, except for the worse, in the foreseeable future.  For institutions that rely on international student recruitment as a source of revenue the reckoning may come sooner.

The global context shows stresses in some other countries such as South Korea and Japan and it seems inevitable that ageing populations, constraints on international recruitment and declining returns on the cost of higher education study will continue to weigh on recruitment.  But the sector is not dead and university leaders should take Captain Kirk’s advice, “.. don’t let them do anything that takes you off the bridge of that ship, because while you’re there, you can make a difference.”  If you don’t think you can make a difference return to administrative duties at Star Fleet command, don’t pass go, don’t collect a golden goodbye payment or pension pay off³.

It’s life, Jim, but not as we know it

There is no return to a fondly remembered golden era where significant public investment, burgeoning youth populations and decision makers informed by their own degree fuelled career success, ensured higher education was a well-funded growth sector.  Almost every institution has to come to terms with straitened circumstances and find new ways of operating that might seem alien (sic).

Geopolitics have always created shifting patterns that require adaptation.  One big problem is that universities have not always shown themselves to be skilled at identifying and optimizing new opportunities or making good investments.  The boom in transnational education (TNE), for example, may turn out well but there are sure to be some bloody noses along the way.

The sector’s media is awash with happy talk about the potential of TNE but there are whispers about business models failing to take into account local taxes, problems with repatriating money, and difficulties delivery academic standards.  As Saskia Loer Hansen of RMIT noted there is “too much focus on making a quick buck” and that makes one wonder how near Damascene conversion of some university’s to seeking overseas campuses will survive full operational engagement.

University leaders might want to remind themselves of Spock’s line that, “After a time, you might find that having is not so pleasing, after all, as wanting.”   

We come in peace, shoot to kill

The sector must evolve rapidly but the size of individual institutions is tiny compared to the global forces they face, so working more closely together is often seen as a natural development. But studies of symbiotic relationships distinguish between mutualistic (both benefit), commensalistic (one benefits with the other unaffected) and parasitic (one benefits at the expense of the other). 

In many countries the “higher education sector” appears united but at a pinch point in the enrollment season better regarded universities will trawl for additional students without mercy at the expense of lesser institutions.  Governments often laud the quality of the country’s higher education system as a national asset and treasure while declining to provide any significant practical support for its future. 

The mix of autonomous institutions beholden to state restrictions mitigates against genuinely strategic realignment.  What tends to happen next is mutual recrimination and a haphazard decline in provision that impacts different subjects, areas of the country and parts of the population in markedly different ways.  UPP Foundation’s research reflects the way that “cold spots” in university provision can create a spiral of caution, low aspiration and resistance which exacerbates the decline.

Captain Kirk never said “we come in peace, shoot to kill” but it does reflect the doublethink of the ways university leadership is focused on institutional (sometimes personal) survival, reward and growth.  The phrase reflects how well-intentioned people who are used to bountiful times can become meaner and more close-minded when times are tough.   Spock’s comment, “The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few” offers food for thought but I suspect that, “We will find hope in the impossible” is the way the sector is currently thinking.

Boldly going forward ’cause we can’t find reverse

This is really the clincher.  There is no choice but to go forward so higher education leaders have to, um, start leading.  In some cases there has been too much time, energy and resource spent on trying to turn back the tide of change rather than deciding what to do next.

Recent polling by Gallup suggests that globally people “..are marginally less optimistic for 2026” and that “economic pessimism is particularly pronounced in advanced economies, especially in Western and Eastern Europe.”  In some countries belief in the direction of higher education has been in decline for some time with increase numbers of voters declining to accept the glossy, self-seeking responses trumpeted by sector leaders. These are the new realities – less money and a need to restore public confidence.

Unlike Captain Kirk’s solution to overcoming the certainty of defeat in the Kobayashi Maru scenario there is no way to reprogramme the test overnight.  But it is reasonable for leadership to say “I don’t believe in a no-win scenario” as long as they start by accepting the realities.  Best wishes to all for all in 2026…..live long and prosper.

NOTES

1. Star Trekkin’ is a 1987 song by The Firm which became number one in the UK for two weeks and the sub-headings are all lines from the lyrics. I would have liked to have used the lyrics of Spizzenergi’s 1979 song “Where’s Captain Kirk” but they didn’t work well enough. Watching Spizz (Kenneth Spiers) dodge bottles flung at him by fans of 999 suggests how nimble universities might have to be in the future!
2. Noughts and crosses to English audiences but the point is that it’s a game you can’t lose if you play it correctly.
3. This is a reference to the game Monopoly where you may draw a card that says “Go to jail. Go directly to jail. Do not pass go, do not collect $200. It reflects that some university leaders appear to have been rewarded for failure.

Image by Marcobaleno from Pixabay