Month: November 2024

Trump, Tech and Tomorrow is Another Day

We are just a few days from the annual Open Doors announcement and it will be accompanied by the Fall 2024 snapshot.  But there is some merit in getting underneath the hood of individual institutions to see what the trends might be and think about what might happen next.  Focusing on four of the INTO University Partners “comprehensive partnerships” where universities give reasonable levels of Fall 2024 enrollment detail also gives a sense of how traditional pathway might be doing.

It’s a mixed bag with Oregon State University (OSU) still becalmed, St Louis University (SLU) appearing to be over-exuberant in its growth ambitions, the University of Alabama Birmingham (UAB) making steady progress and George Mason University (GMU) stalling.  A top-level review of the three public universities suggests that UAB wins on value1 but consideration of their website and positioning suggests that they have integrated thinking about and appealing to international students in a more fundamental way than some competitors2.  As more US universities become active in pursuit of international students this holistic approach is likely to be increasingly important.

There does not appear to be any sign of a revival in the number of students coming from China, either in direct enrollment or through pathways.  The situation with visa refusals and delays for Indian students has been commented on in several media and appears to be having a dampening effect.  The US need for STEM students continues and it will be interesting to see whether the incoming President’s increased engagement with the “tech bros” gives momentum and follow through on his Green Card promise.

The reality is that the underlying dynamics of international recruitment have changed as the main sending countries have shifted.  Promises of post-study work opportunities would be a significant enhancement to the traditional lure of the US and students will often overlook the internal politics of a country if getting a visa and a job is straightforward.  It is arguable that even a “frontal attack” on university  freedoms is unlikely to deter the majority of students seeking a career in the US.       

Oregon State University

The first INTO partner in the USA, Oregon State University made no progress on rebuilding its international student numbers in Fall 2024.  Enrollments are still below 2012 level and undergraduate numbers are continuing to drift down from a peak in 2017.  Year on year the number of Chinese enrollments has fallen another 23% (to 262), students from India are down 4% (to 375) and the only bright spot is students from Taiwan up 27% (to 223).

Source: OSU Office of Institutional Research

The INTO Oregon State University joint venture continues to struggle and is down 63% on its pre-pandemic enrollment.  While the Fall enrollment is up by 44 students3 to 301 this remains below the numbers achieved in 2020 and 2021.  All this despite the joint venture launching a special “Jump Start” employment program for international students in July 2024 to help drive enrollment.     

Source: OSU Office of Institutional Research

St Louis University

As failures in forecasting go St Louis University’s (SLU) well publicized enrollment of only 300 additional international students against a target of 1,300 isn’t quite in the class of Lord Kelvin’s 1895 claim that “heavier than air flying machines are impossible”.  But for those now trying to find savings of $20m in the year the resulting shortfall looks pretty painful.  It could be a sign that for some US universities the reliance on enrollment from India for growth brings increasing levels of risk.

On the face of it, SLU’s targeted growth must have seemed plausible given that the year before they had increased the numbers enrolled from India by 1,775.  Having all your eggs in one basket (with SLU having 76% of its international students from India) is rarely a good idea and the shortfall brings the F1 visa trends into sharp relief.  An excellent article in University World News by Ragh Singh suggests that from January to August 2024 there were 39,000 fewer F1 visas issued to Indian students than in the same period for 2023.

Source: St Louis University Office of Institutional Research

The INTO SLU joint venture pathway operation became wholly owned by INTO in August 2021 and its enrollment numbers are not publicly available.  As the official language of both Ghana and Nigeria is English it seems unlikely that the modest growth in direct student enrollments from these countries are feeding into the pathway.  There is no sign of a revival in enrollments from China. 

St Louis University Direct Student Enrollment – Main Countries

201920202021202220232024
India726517066424392620
China309233166108111101
South Korea282125586974
Nigeria19920405656
Ghana7911182946
Saudi Arabia645341404140

Source: St Louis University Office of Institutional Research

University of Alabama Birmingham

The University of Alabama Birmingham (UAB) is another “comprehensive partner” of INTO and looks to be making steady progress on international student recruitment.  UAB is probably helped by featuring regularly as being good value for international students as well as featuring well in external measures of quality. In Fall 2022 “just under a third” of international students were from India and it is a reasonable bet that this percentage has increased.

August 2023 saw a strong media item featured on WBRC News which could be a model for universities anywhere in the world trying to emphasis the local economic and cultural value of international students. Shadi Martin, Dean of Graduate School and Chief International Officer makes the point that, “It used to be that we had a lot of students who came from China, that number has shifted.  But we are seeing a significant number of students coming from India right now.  We have students coming from the Middle East [and] Africa.”

Source: UAB Office of Institutional Effectiveness and Analysis

At the joint venture INTO UAB pathway level the university does not split out nationalities.  The pathway appears to have recovered reasonably well from the pandemic with a particularly strong showing in Academic English in Fall 2024.  All looks set fair.

Source: UAB Office of Institutional Effectiveness and Analysis

George Mason University

George Mason University (GMU) does not provide a breakdown of its international student enrollment numbers until it publishes its Facts and Figures Yearbook.  The best approximation is the Out of State student number of which international students have been a growing proportion.  In Fall 2024 the Out of State FTE fell slightly on the previous year which may be an indicator that international enrollment has fallen.  

Source: George Mason University Office of Institutional Effectiveness and Planning

The joint venture partnership with INTO had been making a slow recovery after the pandemic but has suffered a setback with a 16% decrease in enrollment year on year.  This takes it back to levels last seen at the onset of the pandemic.  It’s only 11 students fewer but seems to reflect the picture at the overall university level.

Source: George Mason University Office of Institutional Effectiveness and Planning

NOTES

  1. It is always difficult to compare like for like in terms of value.  Some comparison tools were used to make this assessment but the author accepts that there may be other ways of considering this evaluation.
  2. This is a personal and qualitative assessment based on several decades of experience recruiting international students for universities.
  3. This number is based on the year-on-year reporting.  There appears to be an unexplained adjustment to 2023 numbers in the 2024 publication.

Photo by NASA on Unsplash

Doctor, Doctor Give Universities the News

The comments made by Alan Milburn in The Times about the NHS are much more sharply worded than Bridget Philipson’s recent homily about wanting a “sustained efficiency and reform programme” in higher education.  Her comments were accompanied by five loosely worded and poorly defined “priorities” without any sense of urgency or scale.  We have to wait until next summer to understand what she means by higher education reform but hopefully Milburn has already given us the headlines.         

“…weaned off the ‘more, more, more’ culture”

The recent increase in student tuition fees to £9,535 from April 2025 was instantly met with a volley of comments saying it was just a start and wasn’t enough.  The Government probably hoped for some recognition that they had taken a step that the public was unlikely to support.  What they got was a turning up of the volume on comments that suggests universities are still ignoring the priorities of taxpayers and voters.

There seems little merit in supporting the creation of more degree awarding institutions, even through independent provision, when the country seems unable to support the current system and the franchise market is a mess.  If more students did go to university the more popular institutions would simply manipulate their enrollment numbers to the detriment of those that are less well positioned.  Having more graduates may even continue depressing the level of the graduate premium.    

Having fewer institutions might have the benefit of concentrating scarce resources more effectively without compromising student experience and outcomes.  It might be possible to regulate them more closely to ensure that they are delivering outcomes that help drive the Labour Party agenda for economic growth.  A German architect is credited with coining the phrase “less is more” but that might become the guiding aphorism for the higher education sector.        

“..it’s drinking in the last-chance saloon”

Back in 2012 universities were totally unabashed at moving almost in unison to £9,000 a year tuition fees at a point when Government expectation was of an average £7,500. As soon as the Graduate Visa route was introduced there was an uninhibited dash by many institutions to take as many students as possible. There are plenty of signs that on both occasions the cash bounty led to some unwise investments, vanity projects and administrative bloat.  We are still dogged with the never ending saga of increasing salaries for vice-chancellors.

Universities have had lots of chances to invest in ways that do not leave them open to public apathy, claims of dumbing down courses while inflating degree grades, and downgrading  graduate outcome data.  But like inveterate gamblers they have expected windfalls as their birthright and continued to squander the returns on ill-advised bets.  What we can be sure of is that if things go wrong and a university does become insolvent the sector will ignore any evidence of poor forecasting, reckless investment or bad management as the underlying cause.

“If you’ve broadly got less resourcing than then, you’ve got to do more reforming than then”

This reflects something that every organization in the world knows.  The job of leadership is to forecast well and make good decisions that reflect the financial circumstances.  Every business has been through the painful realities of a downturn in revenue and realized that nobody is going to save them.  The answer is usually to find new ways of satisfying users/consumers/students with less money. 

For many organizations the challenge brings creativity, innovation and focus that establishes a more disciplined and leaner approach to delivering effectively.  In the commercial sector those that are unable to do the necessary work of rejuvenation receive little sympathy when they become insolvent and are gobbled up by those that are more able.  There are several institutions that have invested millions in restructuring without real success and continue to bleed domestic students – it may be time they were relieved of their struggles

“We are in a different fiscal climate..”

It’s a simple truth that the UK’s finances are shaky but the reality is that we are also in a different climate as far as public opinion is concerned.  Universities are well down the list of public sympathy for more taxpayer money and students are increasingly balking at the loan burden they are expected to take on when faced with evidence that suggests a graduate premium is not what it was.  The state of the national finances suggest that the cash taps are unlikely to be opened for universities in any foreseeable future and there is little evidence that students are willing to make up the difference.

“People have got to stop thinking that the answer to the…problem is simply more and more money.”

This is where Milburn begins to talk about the need for culture change.  He notes that any increases in funding have to be “..matched by a massive dose of reform” and claims that he is seeing evidence that this is recognized by the sector and that frontline staff are “pushing to do things differently.”  There is every reason to believe that frontline staff in universities would like to see things done in new ways and that some have already borne the brunt of poorly managed and executed restructuring.  But there are many reasons to ask whether senior management or the oversight body of the university are competent in conceiving of or delivering the necessary change.

In the times when inflated tuition fees and record international student numbers created a cash bonanza all of those failings were papered over because there always was “..more and more money.”  It is arguable that some in the sector think that this is still the answer and even the extraordinary Universities UK claim that “most families will understand” having to pay increasing levels of tuition fees.  Such comments suggest that senior spokespeople still have a mindset based on handouts rather than considering ways of building a better future.

Starmer calls for a Government known for “game-changing innovation and reform”

These are brave words and it is difficult to see that the new Government has done much to impress the mantra on anything.  It has bowed down to incremental change in the tuition fee, cozied up to the sector with soothing noises on international students and is yet to be tested on its resolve not to bail out universities that become insolvent.

It is very difficult to see how the university sector can continue in its current size and shape.  Many commentators have noted its penchant for duplicating courses and some institutions seem unable to attract sufficient domestic students to remain viable.  The sector has grown by increment but is largely the same shape and offering the same product as it was fifty years ago.  A one-size fits all, taxpayer underpinned response from Government would be neither innovative or reforming.

Image by Peggy und Marco Lachmann-Anke from Pixabay