One of the most poignant moments in film is when Withnail says goodbye to Marwood1. In the final scene we have Marwood refusing a drink and Withnail, ever the actor and alcoholic, drinking straight from a wine bottle and delivering a soliloquy to the wolves in Regents Park before walking away in the rain. The future for both is uncertain.
I was reminded of this as Rishi Sunak declined to take a last swig of right-wing courage by ending the Graduate Route but decided, even as the heavens opened, that it was time to say goodbye and face an uncertain future. Meanwhile, the UK university sector has its umbrella, has raged at a largely disinterested public, considers itself “noble in reason” and “infinite in faculties”2, yet remains addicted to international student fee income. One can imagine vice chancellors and finance directors breathing a collective sight of relief and reiterating the international recruitment version of, “I must have some booze. I demand to have some booze.”3
We want the finest wines available to humanity. And we want them here, and we want them now!
There has been much rejoicing in universities around the UK. Looking forward it seems that the election will allow sufficient cover for another bumper year of international recruitment as the UK looks to be in slightly better shape for late-breaking students than either Canada or Australia. Institutions with long-term declines in attractiveness because of courses, location and/or poor management will have the sticking plaster of international fees to cover the bleeding away of domestic students.
Cover will be extended into the next few years because, on current performance, HESA probably won’t report on 2024/25 enrollments until the recruitment cycle for 2026 is nearly over. One can also predict that the sector will lose its recent enthusiasm for better, faster data in its headlong rush to smoke the Camberwell Carrot4 of international student fee income. They might even say the recruitment equivalent of, “All right, this is the plan. We get in there and get wrecked, then we’ll eat a pork pie, then we’ll drop a couple of Surmontil-50’s each. That means we’ll miss out Monday but come up smiling Tuesday morning.”5
There is even encouragement from that scion of poor political and lobbying judgement Lord Cameron whose statement that “there’s no limit on the number that can come” suggest he knows he will never bear Government responsibility again. This is the David Cameron who, as Prime Minister, led the closure of the post-study work visa in April 2012 and took the calamitous decision to hold a referendum on Brexit. He and ‘one million students’ Lord Bilimoria can sit harmoniously and enjoy their time together on the benches of the Lords unless Labour gets a second term.
A pair of quadruple whiskies and another pair of pints, please.
The opportunity to continue recruiting at breakneck speed will be a mighty relief also to some of those universities who have found that their bigger and better placed competitors are continuing to build share. We are likely to see a widening divide in the Russell Group, where the ability of some to take a greater share of the relatively static market in China will lead others in the Group to look elsewhere for volume. In turn, this will mean that universities further down the pecking order will have to search wider and deeper in order to achieve the recruitment targets.
Another of the famous lines from Withnail and I is from Danny, who says, “Politics, man. If you’re hanging onto a rising balloon, you’re presented with a difficult decision. Let go before it’s too late or hang on and keep getting higher, posing the question: how long can you keep a grip on the rope?” We have reached a point where universities have hold of the rising balloon of international student fee income and it will get further and further from the ground. Without a crisis there is little merit or benefit for a government under economic pressure elsewhere to come to the table and discuss structural issues around funding and fee levels.
But at some point the tether breaks, the grip weakens or the balloon bursts. It is not uncommon for parties to swing further to political extremes when they have lost an election and most of the signs are of the Conservative’s veering further right and their anti-immigration rhetoric being the basis for the next tilt at power. Universities might want to consider whether a more measured approach to student recruitment, a better level of engagement in explaining the benefits to the public and a more transparent and timely approach to data as some defence if a more reactionary Government emerges in the future.
Free to those that can afford it, very expensive to those that can’t
While the continuance of the graduate route has been positioned as good for international students, this is a partial view driven largely by the vested interest universities have in on campus presence. High physical infrastructure costs and debt servicing have always hampered the willingness to develop of genuinely flexible delivery through transnational education and use of technology. Several have argued that the higher education system championed by the developed economies is part of academic imperialism rather than a model based on equity, respect or diversity.
Every international office knows that economic swings in most countries where international students are found can have a significant impact on applications, enrollments and debtors. The decline of the Tiger Economies in the late 1990s was a significant factor and we are seeing the fall in in the Nigerian naira have almost as much impact as the shift in dependent visas policy. International recruitment is a financial roller coaster designed for those with strong stomachs who are usually looking for those with the biggest wallets.
That’s the real reason that the growth of International Year One has become so important to pathway operators and by dint of second and third year fees to universities. The growth in international markets where students with inadequate grades for direct entry are willing to pay for a first year on campus is an open goal for institutions and commercial operators. Access is certainly free for those that can afford it but denied to those domestic students who are barred from similar privilege.
We are indeed, drifting into the arena of the unwell… making an enemy of our own future…
A number of commentators have reflected that the sector has allowed itself to become a convenient political fall-guy and some voices have even called for greater self-reflection, better engagement and more thought on international student outcomes. Economic factors would suggest there is little prospect of greater direct funding even if a government better disposed to the sector is in power come July. The answer must surely lie in the sector taking the initiative to engage more effectively in constructive discussions about the shape and size of the sector as well as engaging more effectively with the public.
In Withnail and I, Marwood makes the comment, “What we need is harmony, fresh air, stuff like that.” It’s good advice for the sector to seek renewed dialogue as well as new ideas that might leave it in a better place for the inevitable moment that the political pendulum swings again. As we learn from the different endings in the film and the novel it is always possible to change the narrative if you have the will.
NOTES
The title is from Marwood’s quote in ‘Withnail and I’ where he notes that even a stopped clock, although broken, gives the right time twice a day. All sub-headings are quotes from the film ‘Withnail and I’1
- ‘Withnail and I’ is a 1987 British film focusing on two unemployed actors. The film is an adaptation of an unpublished novel written by Bruce Robinson who also wrote and directed the film.
- The quotes are from Withnail’s soliloquy which is taken from Act 2, Scene 2 of Hamlet.
- By Withnail in ‘Withnail and I’
- In the film a Camberwell Carrot is explained by Withnail as, “The joint I am about to roll requires a craftsman and can utilize up to twelve spliffs. It is called a Camberwell Carrot…I invented it in Camberwell and it’s shaped like a carrot.” It has great potency.
- By Withnail in ‘Withnail and I’
Image by Łukasz Dyłka from Pixabay