It’s always a pleasure to have data released contemporaneously so we are grateful to colleagues at INTO University partnerships for sharing enrollment statistics related to their US university partners last week. We’ll come on to possible reasons why this might have appeared but note that it might help flesh out any data released on Monday, November 13 in the IEE Fall 2023 Snapshot on International Enrollment. For now, it’s worth digging in and seeing how this detail matches up against earlier application data released by INTO and the emerging partner university data on fall 2023 enrollments.
What a difference six months makes
The enrollment growth and application growth numbers reported by INTO this year are similar only in that the words “huge growth” are used in the graphics. Back in May 2023 INTO indicated a “136% growth in applications for forthcoming intakes this year”. The graphic indicated this was from a global average growth in applications of 201% for direct entry and 52% growth for pathways. The average was driven largely by applications from south Asia and the Americas with China, Hong Kong and Macau lagging some distance behind.
In their recent release on growth in enrollments for US partners the numbers for direct entry and pathways have been aggregated and the contribution of source countries has shifted. The headline stat is that INTO are claiming an average 34% growth in enrollment for their US partners in the fall 2023 intake with the Americas leading the way as a source market. Because we are dealing with percentages and they are spread across a range of partners and courses the headcount is not known, the base numbers are a mystery, and the split between pathways and direct is not possible to divine.
However, the media release indicates this means “more than 2,900 students..have enrolled into a range of undergraduate and graduate programs with INTO’s US partners for the Fall 2023 intake.” This number includes “..students eligible for direct admission as well as those opting for pathway and other programs supported by INTO Centers.” We might presume, with reasonable certainty, that the claim would have been “nearly” or “approaching” 3,000 if it had been more than 2,950 students.
On this basis the simple maths, using 2,950 enrollments as the fall 2023 number, is that INTO’s entire US intake across 19 listed comprehensive and recruitment partnerships, rose by c750 year-on-year i.e. an additional 34% on 2,200. That’s an average of, um, 39 per university if each got an even share. Because INTO does not have responsibility for enrollment across all courses at its partner universities it is not possible to know the extent to which the INTO numbers impact upon the overall university performance.
An analysis of publicly available data from two INTO partners who have published fall 2023 enrollment details sheds some further light on this.
University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB)
The year-on-year change in undergraduate and graduate non-resident aliens enrolled at UAB is +242 (up 17%)1. As is probably expected with the shift in enrollment markets, the bulk of this is in graduate enrollment with undergraduate numbers falling. The number of part-time non-resident alien students in the total has grown by 115 out of the 242, which would mean FTE enrollment has not grown by the same amount as the headcount and the income generated is probably lower. One possibility is that these are dependents on F-2 visas.
Source: The Office of Institutional Effectiveness and Analysis, University of Alabama
(Note: Between Fall 2022 and Fall 2023 the description changed from Non-Resident Alien to US Non-Resident but there is no indication that the classification of students included changed. Personally, I would wholly applaud the removal of the word “alien” from any description of international students.)
A 17% increase in enrollments is some way short of the 34% average increase indicated by INTO and the increase in part-time further reduces the impact of the intake. It may simply be that INTO does not recruit to most UAB courses so their success is not reflected in the overall numbers.
George Mason University (GMU)
As discussed in a recent blog the university level growth at GMU in year-on-year fall 2023 enrollment of “non-resident aliens” was 9.9% with an extra 389 students. Again, the driver was master’s level students with UG in continued decline. The INTO Mason pathway delivered an additional 12 students over its fall 2022 intake which was a growth of 9.2% and left it 100 below the pre-pandemic 2019 intake.
Source: George Mason University Office of Institutional Effectiveness and Planning
The Bigger Picture
INTO’s media release quotes the “prime example” of “the partnerships at The University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB), Suffolk University, Hofstra University and George Mason University.” No mention of the long-term poster child at Oregon State University (OSU) where internationals enrollments declined from a peak of 3,556 in fall 2019 to 2,338 in fall 2022. Underlying this is that the INTO pathway has suffered a significant decline from its peak of 1,496 students enrolled in fall 2014 to just 250 in fall 2022.
It would be a surprise to many if OSU has not undertaken work to develop their programs to provide support and maximise the success of international students. The omission is a good reason that the 2023 numbers from OSU could make interesting reading when they are released in a few weeks. They should also give some insights into the way that fluctuations in the source markets have manifested themselves in enrollments for both direct entry and pathways.
Source: Oregon State University, Office for Institutional Research
It seems possible that by choosing to offer separate pathway and direct recruitment applications numbers in May but aggregated enrollment numbers in November, INTO has masked the slow progress of pathway operations in the US in reaching pre-pandemic levels. It will be particularly interesting to see how the numbers of Chinese students has altered year on year and historically the OSU data has provided that insight at a granular level.
The limitations on analysis emphasises the frustrations when organizations release percentages rather than headcount numbers and is why the detail offered by some universities is so valuable to gain insights. It would also be reasonable to say that one of the reasons universities work with private sector partners is to enhance their overall global profile rather than simply recruiting onto specific courses. In that respect one might argue that UAB and GMU are underperforming in the INTO portfolio so it will be interesting to see how their overall international numbers relate to the Open Doors figures for the sector next week.
The Even Bigger Picture
There is no doubt that around the world there has been a resurgence in global student mobility. Recent OECD reports indicate that “international student flows reached a record high in 2022” with just under six million students abroad in higher education. There is growing confidence in the continuation of this trend with Holoniq predicting 8 million students “enrolled with foreign institutions”, possibly even 9 million, by 2030. Eight million students studying overseas has long been a part of the higher education sector’s holy grail and the origins of this were analysed in a blog as far back as February 2018.
Notwithstanding this, INTO’s increased profile raising and willingness to engage with direct recruitment partners might suggest that we are, again, in a period when there is a search for new investment. With Navitas active in buying parts of Study Group’s business in May and other signs of merger and acquisition activity picking up this might be a good moment to promote interest in an international recruitment business with momentum. It might be wishing too much, however, to hope that investors are as swayed by short-term bounces or long-term “predictions” as they were in the early 2010’s.
Investment Dealers Digest was, apparently, the first non-skiing print publication to use the metaphor of investment bankers who had “been out over their skis a little bit” on a deal. In this context, interested parties might note that Holoniq’s predictions are tempered with a range from 6 million to 9 million and that we are already seeing the difficulties faced by many countries in managing the scale of the influx of international higher education students. Also worth considering is the continuing sophistication of technology in delivering education, the spectre of nationalistic governments managing their borders more closely and the propensity of global systems to succumb to climate, pandemic and economic shocks.
NOTES
As always the analysis is a genuine attempt to reflect publicly available statistics. Authoritative comment or correction of any errors or misunderstandings in the data interpretation are welcome and will be acknowledged.
The blog title reflects the elusiveness of data that is only expressed in percentages. In the song Remember the Name by hip-hop ensemble Fort Minor the lyrics say, “This is ten percent luck, twenty percent skill fifteen percent concentrated power of will. Five percent pleasure, fifty percent pain And a hundred percent reason to remember the name.” It might be a good description of the work of an international recruiter trying to promote their university!
Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay