November 2022 – View From A Bridge – management, education and personal thoughts

Open Doors or Closing Time for US Pathways?

Open Doors data for 2021/22 confirmed trends that have already become evident in the UK and are likely to shape the future of global student recruitment for several years. It also points to some stark realities for pathway operators that may cast a shadow over any hopes for a post-pandemic recovery in the US. Most starkly, the recovery was marked by the highest ever new postgraduate intake, largely driven by students from India, while new undergraduate enrollment was only just above 2011/12 levels.

Will China Bounce or Break or Will It Depend Where It’s Dropped?

One of the biggest questions facing pathway operators in the US is whether enrollment numbers from China have reached a low point and will rebound. The overall number of degree students from China enrolled in 2021/22 was 232,674 which was 16.7% down on 2017. Undergraduate enrollments were down 26.3%.

However, the impact is not the same across all states. Consideration of the 25 states with more than 10,000 international students in 2017 shows four who increased the overall number of “Foreign Students in the State” – Arizona, Massachusetts, North Carolina and Maryland. The first two made significant percentage increases from India while the latter two also increased the percentage enrolled from China

By contrast the two states with the largest percentage loss in international students over the five years were Oregon (-42.4%) and Iowa (-34%). Of the 25 states, they had the highest percentage of students from China and in the case of Oregon the second highest percentage was from Saudi Arabia rather than India in 2017. The leading universities in each state – Oregon State University, Corvallis and Iowa State University – lost 26.7% and 30% of international students enrollment respectively.

*Information from Open Doors Fact Sheets 2017 and 2022. Numbers relate to “foreign students in the state”.

A thoughtfully argued piece in University World News has suggested that a variety of factors could see a significant rebound by Autumn 2025. This is tempered by factors including the growing strength of other recruiting countries and the developing academic quality of Chinese universities. Others have suggested that unpredictable geopolitics, the potential for online delivery and universities desire for diversity may be major factors suppressing demand from China.

Either way it seems an unpredictable future and not something to bet the house on. Certainly, US universities wanting to rebuild their numbers are going to have to think long and hard about products, price points, promotion and graduate employability. It seems possible that as global alternatives increase, recruitment markets change and in-country competition stiffens the role of pathways will come under further scrutiny.

Pathways Poser

Responses by the main pathway operators to changing market dynamics have differed. A previous blog illustrated Shorelight’s pivot from pathways to direct recruitment options but there has been little sign of such significant movement from its main US competitor, INTO University Partnerships (IUP). The situation in Oregon, home to key IUP partner Oregon State University (OSU), suggests that the need for action may be growing.

OSU provides long term, consistent enrollment reporting though its Office of Institutional Research which gives some weight to this thinking. Despite the 2021/22 growth reported in the Open Doors data, OSU did not show international postgraduate growth in Fall 2021. Fall 2022 numbers show another overall decline in international enrollments driven by falling undergraduate numbers and only limited growth in postgraduates.

*These figures include all INTO Oregon State University (INTO OSU) pathway enrollments except Academic English

The impact of declining numbers from China is evident. Despite recruitment support for direct admits from pathway partners IUP there seems to be limited ability to accelerate enrollment of students from other markets to compensate. While the number of students coming from India to enrol is showing reasonable growth it is starting from a low base.

Overall enrollment has been impacted by a continuing decline in the INTO OSU pathway operation. Undergraduate pathway enrollments in Fall 2022 were down 80% over five years (and 65% on 2019), while graduate pathway enrollments were down 57% over five years (and 62% since 2019). Total enrollments for INTO OSU have fallen 72% since 2017.

A previous review of Fall 2022 preliminary numbers from INTO George Mason University showed that IUP’s pathway operation at that university was struggling to bounce back after the pandemic but there was no information available concerning countries of origin. INTO OSU data offers country insights and shows that three of the four main countries of origin have seen declines, with China falling from 581 students to 48 over 5 years (92%). Numbers from India have shown small fluctuations but in Fall 2022 the intake of 16 was the same as in 2017.

Money Matters

Alongside declining volumes the INTO OSU debt to IUP increases. This is, presumably, all well and good if the joint venture can generate enough pathway enrollments or find alternative revenue streams to pay the debt back over time. However, three of IUP’s US joint ventures have closed in recent years – at Colorado State University, Marshall University and Washington State University – with a fourth, at St Louis University now wholly owned.

The joint venture at the University of South Florida is not currently recruiting and is under threat. Recent court filings have shown that USF Financing Corporation (USFFC) sought a “declaratory judgment that the 2010 stockholders Agreement between USF FC, the Company, and the INTO Defendants is terminated as of April 21, 2022.” The grounds were that the joint venture is “insolvent under both a balance sheet basis and inability to pay debts as they become due, and (b) has demonstrated a material adverse financial position where it could not perform all or a substantial part of its obligations..”.

*Taken from IUP annual reports up to and including that for the year ended 31 July 2021. Excludes INTO SLU which is wholly owned, INTO USF which is not currently recruiting and INTO Hofstra which the INTO University Partnerships annual report does not record as a joint venture.

**The 2021 Financial Statements of Illinois State University (p.50) note that “INTO ISU has an agreement with its two partners, Global and INTO NA, which allows INTO ISU to borrow up to $6,000,000 in operating capital from INTO NA with an interest rate of 6%…. INTO ISU has outstanding borrowings with INTO NA in the amounts of $6,000,000 and accrued interest of $488,392 for the year ended June 30, 2021.” INTO NA is a wholly owned subsidiary of INTO University Partnership Limited (IUP).

Reflections and Realities

Global pathway operators have many creative, flexible and commercially minded individuals but it’s worth remembering Margaret Thatcher’s dictum that “there is no way in which one can buck the market.” Open Doors provides a picture of 2021/22 but as more universities report on their Fall 2022 enrollments it becomes even clearer that the dynamics have changed. With all four major recruiting countries having relatively benign government policies it is no time to be clinging to outdated models with 2023 recruitment already starting.

Notes

As always the text reflects my understanding of the data. I am happy to receive any alternative thoughts or corrections from authoritative sources.

Image by Kingrise from Pixabay

Qatar Carry On

“Do you like horror movies?” The eyes of the princess danced as she asked the question of the exhausted foreigner. It had been a long, long day but there was no easy answer to the follow up question as the clock neared midnight. She continued, “I love them, shall we go and watch one now?”

Every international officer has a story about days without limits, meals without end and questions without answers. There is something about jet lag which makes you feel you can stay awake forever while being so tired that your brain is pleading for sleep. Fixed eye stares and a ghostly pale pallor were the hallmarks of any overseas trip where time was tight and ambitions exceeded hours in the day.

I was usually fortunate to travel with people who knew the country as well as being looked after by in-country agents intent on showing the best it had to offer. Apart from leaving me in a burning hotel in Mexico and under military inspection on the wrong side of passport control in Vietnam, the international office teams I worked with usually seemed keen to bring me home in one piece. So, in July 2008, a one-week sprint through Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and Dubai with Craig Smitherman seemed a reasonable idea.

Road to Riyadh

It all began with a 4.30am start to catch a Lufthansa flight from Heathrow to Riyadh via Frankfurt. My first and only time on the German flag carrier, which had all the efficiency and charm expected by an Englishman of a certain age. I could find no evidence that I was travelling on an ex-Interflug aircraft but wrote in my journal that “..now I see how they found a use for the mothballed bomber fleet after the war – not comfortable.”

Two days jammed with meetings in Riyadh included a visit to one agent who offered us a lift back to the hotel rather than getting a taxi. A feature of country visits was to smile and say yes, which was all well and good until we stood in the car park in 44 degrees of sunshine and the agent revealed that his car’s air conditioning had broken. We smiled again and said, “No problem.”

I don’t know how the chicken feels when it goes in the oven but I do know that it is not wearing a suit, tie and lace up, leather shoes. Perhaps as well it wasn’t a t-shirt and shorts because the seat felt hot enough to sear skin. Having the windows down made absolutely no difference, while the screech of brakes, honking horns and frequent curses was a reminder that one commentator has written about Riyadh’s “cruel traffic.”

Eating for England

Flying Riyadh to Jeddah for a single day of end-to-end meetings made good use of time but led to an ad hoc breakfast meeting before the early morning flight next day. From Jeddah to Dammam on the other side of Saudi is only two hours but this was day four and after another 4am start fatigue was setting in. There was a long drive awaiting as we set off through the desert for a session with Saudi Aramco.

Two hours after landing we had driven past a lot of sand and were entering the company’s compound. Driving into the entrance required passing under the business end of a tank and multiple armed guards which were both signs that we were a long way from home. But winning further investment for activity with the university was a reminder that time spent getting face to face in remote outposts almost always paid off.

Then there was lunch. Stomachs still heavy with breakfast we gamely ploughed on through several courses until it became apparent they would keep on coming until we gave up. We did not come, see and conquer as much as chew, nibble and eventually beg for mercy.

The Princess and the Pasta

Beyond replete we went over the bridge to Bahrain and landed in Doha at 7.30 in the evening. Our turnaround in the hotel was 15 minutes and we entered the land cruiser to be met by the agent and a companion she introduced as her cousin. The agent wore a hijab while the cousin wore a niqab.

The first destination of the evening was a shopping mall where Craig and I followed our hosts at a respectful distance. Shops full of jewellery, fabric, ceramics and clothes were perused without purchase. There seemed a certain irony to us trailing several paces behind the women.

Almost inevitably there came time when food was mentioned. Bellies loaded with Jeddah breakfast and Dammam lunch groaned in protest but our faces smiled and our mouths said yes as, 17 hours into the day, we sat down to eat – again. Polite conversation was made and we learnt that the cousin was related to the royal family and was a poet of wide renown in the country who gave readings for the Emir.

It had reached the stage of brain fog where nothing came as a particular surprise. Why wouldn’t we be trying to stuff down the third major meal of the day, in a shopping mall, at eleven o’clock at night, in a foreign country in the company of a poet-princess? All in the good cause of recruiting international students.

Things Of the Night

But the subject turned to films and the princess was expressing her love of old black and white horror movies like Dracula and Frankenstein. Incautiously, I indicated that I was not much for current horror movies but had fond memories of the old Hammer films . I may even have ventured opinions about the various merits of Vincent Price over Christopher Lee.

Seconds later the invitation to go and watch a movie was made. My slightly hazy brain turned over the idea of being in a Qatar cinema at 1am in the morning with a princess by my side as Van Helsing drove a stake through a vampire’s heart. My slightly addled brain was saying that it would be polite to accept the invitation, while something I like to think of as common sense was screeching that this was the worst idea of the day.

I think the offer was real but it’s possible I was being teased. My stuttering apology of early meetings next morning and it having been a very long day were graciously accepted. It’s a regret that I didn’t say yes and I am sure my reluctance was a sign I was not cut from the cloth that makes the best international officers.

Image by Lumpi from Pixabay

The Name of The Game

A minute is a very long time. In the silence of the interview room with a vice chancellor and five unfriendly faces looking at me it was getting longer by the second. What had seemed a good idea in planning was losing credibility faster than a Liz Truss/Kwasi Kwarteng mini-budget. My nerve broke…

Interviews share some of the characteristics of democracy in that they are the very worst form of selecting a new employee apart from “all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.” Much like an election, they can be a lottery where the politics on the other side of the table matter much more than the candidate’s capabilities. I succeeded at each of the first three interviews in my career but had a hit rate well under 20% after that.

I should probably have been better as a candidate because I’ve spent plenty of time as a hiring manager and chairing interview panels. But over the years the process seemed to become increasingly focused on ticking compliance boxes rather than having a decent conversation with someone about their fitness for the role. Most interviews are so dull they are instantly forgettable but there are a few examples where I’ve overextended my hand in trying to liven them up.

Silence Is Golden²

The silence in the interview room and my loss of nerve came during a two-minute slot where I was invited to give an overview on my suitability for a role as the university’s head of communications. I had decided to sit totally still and wordless for the first minute. It was intended to be a precursor to explaining that this symbolised an institution that had communicated nothing of importance for months.

My inspiration was a tale from the advertising world when Allen Brady and Marsh tendered for the British Rail contract in 1977. The client team, led by then BR chairman, Sir Peter Parker, arrived at ABM’s reception for the presentation to be met by a bored receptionist and were made to sit in a waiting room where the tables were festooned with used coffee cups and cigarette butts. They were about to walk out when agency director Peter Marsh and his team appeared.

Marsh said, “What I’ve been trying to demonstrate to you in these surroundings and the indifference of our receptionist there, is the experience your customers have of you, British Rail, every day. And it’s my job and intention to show you how we will overcome that problem. Shall we go and have lunch…” Totally brilliant in terms of concept, timing and nerve.

Among the problems with my own attempt at performance art was that I had forgotten to set my watch, the evident hostility of the panel at this unexpected silence got to me and we certainly weren’t going for a slap-up lunch afterwards. As the tension in the room grew I decided to speak up well before the end of the minute but fluffed the explanation, so they only heard me telling them what a terrible job they were doing. Totally my fault for bungled execution and the interview spiralled downwards from there, but as the vice-chancellor didn’t last much longer in his job it was probably a narrow escape.

Shine On You Crazy Diamond³

A later outing was with a well-ranked university where my research had revealed that the VC was a world specialist in materials with interests including alloys and crystallography. With this insight, I decided to base my vision for communicating the strengths of the university by using the metaphor of it being an undiscovered diamond. As I concluded my description the vice chancellor, who was chairing the panel, told me he was an expert on the subject. I said, “I know,” which were the last words from my lips for several minutes.

He proceeded to hold court, to a panel of ten, with a lecture on the characteristics of diamond formation, minerals, organic and inorganic compounds and alloys. Most particularly, he pronounced on why the metaphor didn’t correspond with his learned view about the diamonds. It was probably not helpful for me to suggest he had missed the point and that popular opinions about diamonds reflected more on their value and popularly understood characteristics than their chemical composition and isometric structure.

Everything I had heard about the institution being a tightly controlled autocracy became painfully evident as the panel took their cue from the top. The rest of the hour was a reminder that a good chair speaks last if they want to ensure they hear a diversity of views and opinions. My only consolation was thinking it’s sometimes better to crash, burn and learn than to land safely in the wrong place.

The Games People Play⁴

I was also particularly bad at the two days interviews which became popular with some universities. At one south coast institution I wowed an audience of 20 on day one with a presentation on the theme of distant horizons. I even managed to pull off a joke about the university being similar to Spock of Star Trek in having three ears – right ear, left ear and space the final frontier.

Day two was a terrible series of dull question and answer interviews culminating in a one to one with a vice-chancellor who had some pretty fixed views about pathway operators. They were suspended several years later after, as one of several issues, commissioning seven custom-made chairs costing £95,000. Wouldn’t have fancied managing the PR for that anyway.

But this is where the Lefty Gomez quote suggesting that it’s better to be lucky than good comes in. For one interview, I was a last minute addition to the list of six candidates because someone dropped out late. I missed the day of campus tours because I was driving many miles to get there and secured an agreement to be the first interview of the next day.

In the car park next morning, I bumped into a suited, slightly harassed looking person who I guessed just had to be one of the other candidates. I enquired how things were going and he told me he was just getting some handouts and overhead projector slides produced to give to the panel. At that point I hadn’t put my suit on let alone thought about my opening statement.

Forty-five minutes later I was asked for a brief overview on how I would approach the job. I paused for effect and looked around the nine-person panel. “Some candidates will probably come here today with slides and handouts which suggest that they know this institution better than you do. My view is that you are probably more expert than I will ever be in understanding the academic heart of the university but that I would add value by being the expert at communicating your work…”

After my appointment the Registrar told me that the very next candidate after me had done just as I predicted. I chose not to tell him the background. Neither did I tell him that my opening statement had an even greater truth because I really didn’t know very much at all about universities or the higher education sector.

“Get your retaliation in first,” is what Willie John McBride, captain of the famous 1974 touring Lions, told his team-mates when facing bruising encounters with the South African rugby team and it’s always seemed a worthwhile consideration. But also, as Paul Newman says in Cool Hand Luke, “sometimes nothing can be a real cool hand.” Either way, it was another lesson that interviews are a game where the best prepared and most knowledgeable don’t always win.

Money For Nothing⁵

No recounting of interviews would be complete without sharing the very best answer to an interview question that I have ever heard. When recruiting new international officers, the favourite question was to put them in a scenario where their plane was delayed and they had landed in the early hours in a country with a reputation for kidnappings. Their pre-booked taxi was nowhere to be seen, suspicious characters were hanging around and they found their wallet had been stolen.

Faced with this situation it was interesting to watch relatively young and inexperienced people run through their expectations, hopes and fears while repeatedly foundering on the absence of cash or credit cards. No calls to the embassy, no hailing a taxi, not even bribing an airport employee was possible. There was only ever one winning answer. The mighty Pete Ryan, a top guy who not only got the job but went on to become a Head of International Recruitment, barely paused before giving the world-beating, “Well it’s no problem, like, ‘cause I always keep a fiver in my shoe.”

NOTES

The lyrics of ABBA’s 1977 UK number one, Name of the Game, are worth considering in the context of interviews.
The Four Seasons originally recorded Silence is Golden in 1964 but the Tremeloes’ version from 1967 topped the UK charts and reached number 11 in the Billboard Hot 100 chart, so is probably better known.
Shine On You Crazy Diamond appeared on Pink Floyd’s 1975 album Wish You Were Here. The song is dedicated to the late Syd Barrett, whose drug use and mental health problems caused him to be ejected from the band in 1968.
Joe South’s 1968 Grammy Award winning song, Games People Play, is a pretty downbeat look at human character. He went on to write Lynn Anderson’s 1970 hit, Rose Garden.
Money for Nothing was released in 1985 as the second single from the Dire Strait’s album Brothers in Arms. Sting sings background vocals and a falsetto introduction and came up with the line in the song, “I want my MTV”. The guitar sound is, apparently, modelled on that of ZZ Top because of their popularity on early MTV.

Image by Clker-Free-Vector-Images from Pixabay