Note: A data transposition error meant that a small number of Day 4 details in this blog required amendment. Deleted text is shown with a strikethrough. The changes are marginal and do not change the conclusions drawn. Amendments were made on 23 August.
Education and political commentators in the UK must salivate as they mark the A-level results date in their diary. It’s the gift that keeps on giving as thrilled and distraught students weep real tears of joy or despair at three grade letters which will determine their immediate future. The system places all the power in the hands of the universities as they pick and choose who to admit from the 30% or more whose predicted grades were inflated.
With that grumble about a system which is weighted heavily against students out of the way it’s time to get down to making some observations about what clearing has told us so far about international students. It’s still early in the process and there is time for things to change but the first few days are usually telling. The figures on day one of clearing (UCAS call it JCQ Results Day) and little change by day 4 give a sense of how the world is turning.
The focus here is international students and that brings an immediate acknowledgement that undergraduate study is probably not where the real action lies. However, the yearly grind of replacing PGT students is a remorseless treadmill and every university business manager should be hungry for the stability of a three year fee-paying student. Pathway operators have also historically built their business around students who want to be undergraduates and need to improve their language skills before entering a full degree.
No Safe European Home
The near catastrophic decline in European undergraduate enrollments continues but it looks worse than the headline numbers. Since 2019 the number of applications has fallen 54% (27,150) but on day one the number of acceptances was down 67% over the same timescale. The slow growth in the number of acceptances suggests that there is simply not the quality of student in the pool or that they hoped to be able to slip into a highly ranked university and are not interested in trading down.
Those touting the notion that it was not financially an issue if European numbers fell steeply because they would be paying more in fees should re-evaluate their position. In 2019 the 26,200 European students accepted on day one were worth £727m over three years at £9,250 a year. In 2022 the 8,620 accepted on day one are worth £414m over three years at an average of, say, £16,000 a year.
Of course, some higher ranked universities will be able to charge more but it would need an average yearly undergraduate fee of £28,000 to be able to make up the difference. It is difficult to see that this is realistic, so a net loss seems baked into the situation. The number of acceptances is also on a downward trend year on year so getting Brexit done probably has long term consequences for higher education enrollments.
The impact on pathway operators may also have been something of a blow because many European students, particularly from less economically strong countries, needed language support. This may be one factor behind the growing popularity of low-cost countries in attracting international students within Europe.
China In Your Hand
UK university appetite for students from China remains undimmed and it would be reasonable to lay a small bet that the Russell Group is continuing to draw in as many as possible. What is interesting about this year is the sharp hike in the percentage of Chinese applicants who were accepted as of day one. The 42% accepted was still at that level had risen to 44.6% on day 4 of Clearing and is significantly higher than anything in the past decade (highest previous was 37.9 42.1% acceptances on day 4).
A couple of thoughts on the reasons come to mind. It is possible that there has been a surge of quality candidates because the number of Chinese students going to the US appears to be continuing to falter. It is also possible that pathways in the UK with international year one options are growing their degree offerings and able to provide a persuasive option to candidates at 5.5 IELTS. HESA data shows, for example, that Study Group had 1,345 Chinese undergraduate students in 2020/21.
As of day 4 of clearing there will be some 70.9% (c5,800 5,940) more Chinese undergraduates starting UG courses in the UK in 2022 than in 2019.
Career Opportunities
Much has been made of the ways the introduction of post-study work visas have changed the fortunes of UK universities enrolling international students. Two key countries with rapidly growing applications were India and Nigeria. While the bulk of candidates will have been in PGT applications both countries have seen strong UG application growth since 2019 of 217% and 91% respectively.
There may have been high hopes pinned on these turning into enrollments but the acceptances picture tells a quite different story. Nigeria languished at an acceptance rate of 22.7% on day one – an all time low for the past decade. At an acceptance rate of 34.1% Indian students were marginally better than last year but at a lower level than anything else since 2013.
It would be reasonable to say that the number of accepted Nigerian students on day one has risen 106.9% since 2019. But an extra 3,620 applicants had only yielded 620 acceptances (17%) at that point and on the same basis an extra 5,670 Indian applications brought 1,620 students (28.6%). This might suggest why some university admissions colleagues are concerned at the propensity of aggregator platforms to attract sub-optimal candidates when, by contrast, a growth of 11,640 Chinese applicants returned 5,690 students (48.9%).
Another market touted for growth now and in the future is Pakistan, where an additional 370 applicants since 2019 saw a decline of 20 students accepted as of day one. On a longer time scale, 2017 saw 2000 applicants from Pakistan with a day one acceptance of 540 while 2022 saw 2660 applicants with a day one acceptance of…..540. The search for new markets and the ease of multiple application through technology may make this a recurring trend and particularly so as agents and applicants look more widely for countries with the most benevolent post-study work options.
Minding Your P and Us
As noted, the UG trends are only part of the story and most of the excitement and expectation is in the PGT market. If the growth in applications from India and Nigeria has been as significant as suggested by study visa data there will have been a tremendous burden on university admissions offices. The UG picture may suggest that the vagaries of multiple applications, quality of candidates and Home Office scrutiny will result in significant inefficiency in the system for the foreseeable future.
Image by Arek Socha from Pixabay