Economist John Maynard is famous for saying, “In the long run we are all dead”, but he also wrote, “there will be no harm in making mild preparations for our destiny”. Universities might consider this as they struggle to encourage international students to overlook the near-term uncertainties of the pandemic in 2021. The real winners will be those readying for 2022 when all four of the major receiving Western countries are likely to be competing from a position of strength.
There is no point in the last twenty years when the US, UK, Canada and Australia have, at the same time, been growing aggressively or had in-country conditions enabling them to promote themselves effectively. While globally mobile student numbers have grown there has always been a country operating with at least one hand tied behind its back. It seems likely that this is about to change, which is going to bring unusual pressures to bear on recruitment efforts.
If there is significant headway on vaccination rollouts, the pandemic recedes and internal country politics align it will be time for a revitalized UK, a desperate Australia, a confident Canada and a Biden-powered USA to do battle. Those familiar with World Wrestling Entertainment’s Fatal Four Way match up may think it could be a contest that makes equally interesting viewing. For international students it will mean a smorgasbord of opportunity, offers and opening doors.
Overview and Trends
Data from individual countries are not standardized but the graph below focuses only on students identified as bachelors, postgraduate taught and doctoral for each country. This eliminates the language only, non-degree and/or OPT registered elements that provide wider fluctuation and distortion between countries. For example, significant elements of the recent Canadian international student growth are concentrated outside degree level programs.
The data indicates that when the US has done well Australia and the UK have been steady or in decline. It also demonstrates the increasing place of Canada in degree level awards with every likelihood that the explosive growth at lower levels will feed through over time.
A starker way of visualising the pattern is to consider each country’s percentage share of the aggregate enrollements of all four and show how it has risen or declined year on year. Changes in the US share correlate reasonably well to the shifts in the fortunes of other countries and particularly the UK and Australia. The Canadian share is relatively stable but is likely to have an increased impact as the volume increases.
From 2002/03 to 2011/12 the US consistently lost market share against the other countries. The burst of growth, which underpinned the expansion of investment in pathways in the US came from 2011/12 to 2015/16 when its share of the market grew. The subsequent decline of US enrollments from 2016/17 has correlated with accelerated growth from Canada and Australia and latterly, the UK.
Country by country factors broadly match the numbers and suggest that it was not competition alone that caused the ebbs and flows. US growth in the 2000s was sluggish as the country proceeded with caution after the terrorist attacks of 9/11. The UK stagnated after removal of post-study work visas in 2012. Australian visa restrictions, from 2009 were followed by significant benevolent changes from 2013 onwards. And Canada’s focus on growth came with particular emphasis from the 2011 Economic Action Plan and 2014-2019 International Education Strategy although its relative share was undermined by the US growth between 2011/12 and 2015/16.
The Global Picture
At a global level, the OECD measure of globally mobile students pursuing tertiary education gives an indicator of the competitive threats and opportunities that exist. What seems most clear is that the trend has been for the non-OECD countries to increase their share of the market over time. In 2018 they had 30% of the market while in 2000 they had only 24%, which suggests power is gradually moving away from the traditional receiving countries.
The big four will also suffer from the success of countries like Germany, the Netherlands and Russia taking an increasing share of OECD country growth. A by-product of that may be the way that pathways – which have come to be a dominant part of the UK and Australian landscape – have to respond to the new era. Pathways operations in Europe have become commonplace and Brexit may be another factor that accelerates their growth.
Number of international or foreign students enrolled in OECD and non-OECD countries
With growth likely to come from more price sensitive markets it may also be worth universities taking account of the relative changes in costs that may be coming around the corner. It is interesting to watch foreign exchange predictions and there seems to be a view that the US dollar may weaken over the coming 18 months and increase the competitiveness of its services. Alongside this there are voices suggesting strengthening of the UK pound, the National Bank of Canada expects the Canadian Dollar to appreciate, and there seems to be plenty of confidence in the future value of the Australian Dollar.
Conclusions
It seems reasonable to conclude that over the past two decades each of the main four recruiting countries has, from time to time, benefited because one of the main competitors has struggled to create the conditions for growth. But no country with a thriving higher education section is going to willingly shut its doors forever and all the signs are that universities will need growth to offset economic conditions and government cutbacks in their home country or state. While it is easy to feel smart when things are going well; it is wiser to be smart about what is happening to the competitive set and what you can do to prepare for changing conditions.
2021 remains uncertain but there is every reason to believe that 2022 will see greater competition across the globe. In a head-to-head match, where the quality of the universities, visa availability and the possibility of post-study work become more equal, it will be interesting to see who wins. The US has all the tools to win and its fall from being the most favored destination owes as much to its decrease in popularity as the increase in desire to go elsewhere.
The time to prepare is now, and there is nothing to stop a smart US university giving real consideration to establishing a market-priced offering to students from the most rapidly growing source markets. Establishing a high-profile recruitment platform in early 2021 would take advantage of the market sentiment towards the Biden administration supported by the gradual re-opening of visa offices. Carpe diem may summarize 2021 but audentes fortuna iuvat should be on everyone’s lips for 2022.
Footnote
Data on international enrollments are not consistent across the main recruiting countries. The data used takes sources where it appears to be possible to secure an aggregate number for total enrollments of international students undertaking a bachelors, postgraduate taught or doctoral degree. The sources for each country are itemised below and any insights or corrections to my assumptions are welcome. The data are also subject to other anomalies which make comparison a subjective business. The main points to make in that regard are:
i) Australian data appears on a calendar year. Placing this against sources reporting academic years requires making a judgement about which year compares to which but is not material in the context of the main line of argument in this blog.
ii) UK data used are from the latest HESA release (27 January 2021) for the most recent five years and use historical data for the years before. In building the spreadsheets I noticed that the numbers in the most recent release differ slightly from those in prior releases. These differences are not significant enough to make a difference to the main argument.
iii) EU student data has been omitted from the UK data because the economic incentive to recruit them is not the same as international students who can be charged higher fees than home students.
iv) The timing of data collection is likely to be an increasingly important factor as universities increase their number of entry points in the year. This is likely to be a contributing factor to the HESA data noted above.
v) Sources
– US data from IIE Open Doors download of historical data and analysis of Undergraduate (Bachelors and Associate), and Graduate only:
– Australia data from Department of Education, Skills and Employment, Higher Education Statistics, uCUBE, Enrolments Overseas, Sum of Postgraduate and Bachelors, 2001-2019 (removed enabling and non-award):
Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay
