The January 2020 reporting from SEVIS* reveals a continuing decline in international student enrollments from Asia in the US. The figures also point to growing problems with higher education enrollments by students from India. Even post-study work program Optional Practical Training (OPT), which has propped up the recent headline numbers presented by Open Doors, may be struggling
Over the three-year period** from December 2017 the SEVIS Data Mapping Tool shows a decline of 70,194 student visa holders*** from Asia – a drop of 7.6%. The percentage of the total from Asia has fallen from 77.2% to 75.47% over the period. Tables 1 and 2 look at aggregate SEVIS numbers while tables 3 and 4 look at specific levels of study.
Table 1 – SEVIS Data Mapping of Asian Student Visa Holders December 2017 to January 2020
Source: SEVIS
Digging further into the data by country the latest numbers show particular reductions in the number of visa holders from China and Indian. The 2017 to 2018 loss for the two countries was just over 11,000 but this accelerated with a drop of a further 20,000 from 2018 to January 2020. Particularly troubling was the rapid decline in Indian visa holders where a 3,500 fall from 2017 to 2018 became a further decline of 14,200 to January 2020.
Table 2 SEVIS Data Mapping of China and India Student Visa Holders December 2017 to January 2020
Source: SEVIS
SEVIS also provides an opportunity to see which type of student visa holder has been most affected by the decline. There are a number of categories but the focus will be on students listed in the Doctoral, Masters and Bachelor’s category as these are most relevant to universities and colleges. China and India show quite different patterns with the latter suggesting a rapidly worsening situation for higher education enrollment.
Accelerating Decline from India
A breakdown of the India student visa holder numbers shows that the number listed at Master’s level fell by around 7,000 from 2017 to 2018 and then a further 19,850 to January 2020. A modest upswing of around 3,300 in Bachelor’s and, a more encouraging, 5,400 in Doctor’s complete the picture. If the Master’s level deterioration continues there will need to be continuing growth in other categories to take up the slack.
It has been noted in many quarters that the UK’s reinstatement of a benevolent post-study work visa regime is already providing attractive to students from India. Visas granted to students from India were up 63% year on year to September 2019. With the full implementation of the new regime for students starting their degree in Fall 2020 it is widely anticipated that this will be a bumper year for enrollments in the UK and may bring more challenges for the US.
Table 3 SEVIS Data Mapping of India Master’s, Bachelor’s and Doctoral Level Student Visa Holders (December 2017 to January 2020)
Source: SEVIS
China Stable But Pipeline May Be Thinning
The China breakdown is showing that the same three categories are reasonably robust but that there has been a decline in Secondary, Associate and Language levels. This is a development which might, over the longer term, impact on the pipeline of students moving on to higher education. With the range of potential US enrollment challenges relating to Chinese students growing there is plenty of reason to be concerned that Fall 2020 and beyond will be impacted.
While coronavirus is a rapidly developing issue that is likely to disrupt recruitment of Chinese students to all countries there is little doubt that recent rhetoric and actions in the US have also done damage that may be lasting. With friendlier tones taken by competitor countries and the availability of better value, good quality options for an increasingly economically pressed middle class in China it may be that even maintaining enrollment levels will be a struggle. While the decline in China’s 18-year old population has leveled out it will not return to the volumes seen in the last decade in the near future.
Table 4 SEVIS Data Mapping of China Master’s, Bachelor’s and Doctoral Level Student Visa Holders showing also combined Secondary, Associate and Language Holders (December 2017 to January 2020)
Source: SEVIS
As has been noted it is difficult to get to the underlying picture on enrollments because of the intermingling of different visa types and the particular issues related to the historical growth of visa holders doing OPT. The rapid drop in the numbers for India would, however, suggest that there is a degree of market movement and that US Consul General Joel Reifman’s thoughts on relations between the two countries needs some work.
If, as suggested by some commentators, the size of the decline in Indian Master’s students is partly due to them reaching the end of OPT and not being replaced by incoming students this might suggest that students are becoming used to selecting countries that offer a better path for work or citizenship. That does not seem like particularly good news for the longer term. There are plenty of competitors willing to offer alternatives.
Notes
*SEVIS is the web-based tool that the Department of Homeland Security uses to maintain information on non-immigrant students, exchange visitors and their dependents.
**The SEVIS data is not exact to the month on a year by year basis. The charts reflect the month of publication for the figures shown.
***The term ‘student visa holder/s’ is used to describe the aggregate numbers shown by SEVIS for the region, countries and/or levels of study shown.