The BBC’s claim that ‘UK universities see boom in Chinese students’ shows a lack of subtlety in understanding the dynamics of growth at different institutions. The latest HESA data available at individual university level shows that just seven universities took 51% of the 16,990 student growth in Chinese enrolments between 2014/15 and 2017/18. But there are intriguing signs that the incoming surge of Indian students might bring a new dynamic to the market.
While China still dominates, the latest HESA data (for 2018/19 entrants) shows that Indian ‘first year entrants’ to the UK in 2018/19 grew by 42% (around 5,250) year on year with comparative China numbers up around 13%. We also know that in the year to September 2019 the UK saw continuing and notable increases in Tier 4 study visas to students from China and India with visas to Chinese nationals up 21% to 119,697 and those to Indian nationals up 63% to 30,550. Anecdotal evidence suggests that post-study work rights are driving applications from India even harder for 2020/21.
With numbers from India growing so rapidly it’s worth considering whether this might impact the growth opportunities of different institutions.
Reputation and Rankings Key to Chinese Enrolments
In the last four years, where data is available at institution level, seven universities achieved growth of over 600 Chinese student enrolments and growth of 50% or more in their Chinese enrolments. Strong brand and rankings focus in the China market mean it’s no surprise that five of the seven are Russell Group universities. The University of the Arts seems to have been able to develop a niche brand in a growing area of study.
Table 1: Universities Increasing Enrolment from China by over 600 and 50% from 2014/15 to 2017/18
The obverse is broadly true as well. Lower ranking universities have, generally, found it more difficult to recruit students from China with the eight showing the biggest numerical losses being over 4,000 enrolments down over the four years. None of them are ranked above 40 in the Times University Guide 2020.
Table 2: Universities with the Largest Decline in Chinese Student Enrolments 2014/15 to 2017/18
As an aside, it is interesting to note that the University of Leicester switched pathway operator from Study Group to Navitas during the course of the year. No doubt they will be hoping for a reversal of fortunes under their new arrangements. On the other side of things Cardiff University, one of the most successful in recent years as seen in Table 1, has just appointed Study Group so there would appear to be some pressure to perform. Sunderland and Hull may be wondering whether their involvement with CEG is delivering as needed.
Growth of Indian Students Less Ranking Dependent
We are awaiting the HESA data at institutional level for 2018/19 to see how the growth in Indian student numbers will affect the dynamics. If 2014/15 to 2017/18 is any guide it could begin to level the playing field with some lower ranked universities able to make ground. Between those years total enrolments from India grew by 1425 but the seven universities with over 150 additional enrolments grew their Indian numbers by an aggregate 1870.
Table 3: Universities Increasing Enrolment from India by over 150 and 50% from 2014/15 to 2017/18
It is reasonable to note that the big losers in terms of enrolments from India were also at the lower end of the reputation and ranking scale. West London (-380). Staffordshire (-340) and Cardiff Metropolitan (-300) showed the most significant losses. But equally, there were no significant gains made by most Russell Group universities.
It is difficult to find any obvious cause and correlation in the grouping that has done well. One factor, for some of the institutions listed in the table, is likely to be the value for money they offer in terms of fees and other expenses. For students taking out personal finance it seems reasonable to assume that universities with lower fees, even if below the top rankings, may be attractive.
Another factor which may be worth considering is the relative strength of the Indian community in some locations. London (Queen Mary) is always a strong draw but the most recent UK Census information indicates that in 2011 there were significant communities in Leicester (De Montfort), Nottingham, Preston (UCLAN), Northampton and Newcastle (Northumbria). All that being said, it is worth noting that the University of Leicester lost 90 Indian students over the period – it may just be that De Montfort is eating its lunch.
Future Disrupted?
What makes it even more tantalising is the recently released top line HESA data on international enrolments in 2018/19. As one would expect five of the big Russell Group players have been top performers with Edinburgh, Kings College, Leeds, Sheffield and University College London each adding over 1,000 new international students year on year. Their gains account for around 25% of the overall 23,280 increase in total international student enrolments.
But the data also shows that East London (505), Greenwich (660), Hertfordshire (475), Nottingham Trent (470) and Teeside (490) all had faster year on year growth in international enrolments than Exeter (345), Warwick (385), Lancaster (60) and Newcastle (40). It’s a little early to call the outcomes and the figures are not available at institutional level by country of domicile. But there is just a hint that the return of post-study work visas has disrupted enrolment patterns and some lower-ranked universities may have the most cause to be grateful.
Notes:
- The term ‘international’ is used here to described students paying international fees and excludes European-union students who pay the same fee as UK students.
- The data in the Future Disrupted? Section is taken from HESA data:
Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay