Month: January 2020

Post Study Work May Change UK University Enrolment Growth Patterns

The BBC’s claim that ‘UK universities see boom in Chinese students’ shows a lack of subtlety in understanding the dynamics of growth at different institutions.  The latest HESA data available at individual university level shows that just seven universities took 51% of the 16,990 student growth in Chinese enrolments between 2014/15 and 2017/18. But there are intriguing signs that the incoming surge of Indian students might bring a new dynamic to the market.

While China still dominates, the latest HESA data (for 2018/19 entrants) shows that Indian ‘first year entrants’ to the UK in 2018/19 grew by 42% (around 5,250) year on year with comparative China numbers up around 13%.   We also know that in the year to September 2019 the UK saw continuing and notable increases in Tier 4 study visas to students from China and India with visas to Chinese nationals up 21% to 119,697 and those to Indian nationals up 63% to 30,550.  Anecdotal evidence suggests that post-study work rights are driving applications from India even harder for 2020/21.

With numbers from India growing so rapidly it’s worth considering whether this might impact the growth opportunities of different institutions. 

Reputation and Rankings Key to Chinese Enrolments

In the last four years, where data is available at institution level, seven universities achieved growth of over 600 Chinese student enrolments and growth of 50% or more in their Chinese enrolments.  Strong brand and rankings focus in the China market mean it’s no surprise that five of the seven are Russell Group universities.  The University of the Arts seems to have been able to develop a niche brand in a growing area of study.     

Table 1: Universities Increasing Enrolment from China by over 600 and 50% from 2014/15 to 2017/18

Source: HESA

The obverse is broadly true as well.  Lower ranking universities have, generally, found it more difficult to recruit students from China with the eight showing the biggest numerical losses being over 4,000 enrolments down over the four years.  None of them are ranked above 40 in the Times University Guide 2020.

Table 2: Universities with the Largest Decline in Chinese Student Enrolments 2014/15 to 2017/18

Source: HESA

As an aside, it is interesting to note that the University of Leicester switched pathway operator from Study Group to Navitas during the course of the year.  No doubt they will be hoping for a reversal of fortunes under their new arrangements.  On the other side of things Cardiff University, one of the most successful in recent years as seen in Table 1, has just appointed Study Group so there would appear to be some pressure to perform.  Sunderland and Hull may be wondering whether their involvement with CEG is delivering as needed.

Growth of Indian Students Less Ranking Dependent

We are awaiting the HESA data at institutional level for 2018/19 to see how the growth in Indian student numbers will affect the dynamics.  If 2014/15 to 2017/18 is any guide it could begin to level the playing field with some lower ranked universities able to make ground.  Between those years total enrolments from India grew by 1425 but the seven universities with over 150 additional enrolments grew their Indian numbers by an aggregate 1870.

Table 3: Universities Increasing Enrolment from India by over 150 and 50% from 2014/15 to 2017/18

Source: HESA

It is reasonable to note that the big losers in terms of enrolments from India were also at the lower end of the reputation and ranking scale.  West London (-380). Staffordshire (-340) and Cardiff Metropolitan (-300) showed the most significant losses.  But equally, there were no significant gains made by most Russell Group universities.

It is difficult to find any obvious cause and correlation in the grouping that has done well.  One factor, for some of the institutions listed in the table, is likely to be the value for money they offer in terms of fees and other expenses.  For students taking out personal finance it seems reasonable to assume that universities with lower fees, even if below the top rankings, may be attractive.    

Another factor which may be worth considering is the relative strength of the Indian community in some locations.  London (Queen Mary) is always a strong draw but the most recent UK Census information indicates that in 2011 there were significant communities in Leicester (De Montfort), Nottingham, Preston (UCLAN), Northampton and Newcastle (Northumbria).  All that being said, it is worth noting that the University of Leicester lost 90 Indian students over the period – it may just be that De Montfort is eating its lunch.

Future Disrupted?

What makes it even more tantalising is the recently released top line HESA data on international enrolments in 2018/19.  As one would expect five of the big Russell Group players have been top performers with Edinburgh, Kings College, Leeds, Sheffield and University College London each adding over 1,000 new international students year on year.  Their gains account for around 25% of the overall 23,280 increase in total international student enrolments.

But the data also shows that East London (505), Greenwich (660), Hertfordshire (475), Nottingham Trent (470) and Teeside (490) all had faster year on year growth in international enrolments than Exeter (345), Warwick (385), Lancaster (60) and Newcastle (40).  It’s a little early to call the outcomes and the figures are not available at institutional level by country of domicile.  But there is just a hint that the return of post-study work visas has disrupted enrolment patterns and some lower-ranked universities may have the most cause to be grateful.

Notes:

  1. The term ‘international’ is used here to described students paying international fees and excludes European-union students who pay the same fee as UK students.
  2. The data in the Future Disrupted? Section is taken from HESA data:
    1. HE student enrolments by HE provider and domicile Academic year 2018/19
    1. HE student enrolments by HE provider and domicile Academic year 2017/18

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay 

AN ENGLISHMAN ABROAD DOES COLD TURKEY ON BLUE MONDAY IN DRY JANUARY

Having spent an early career in public relations I know a public relations scam when I see one.  Most anniversaries, memes, and movements are little more than the creation of a fertile, scheming brain working out how to promote a cause.  It’s helped me avoid all sorts of tomfoolery, faddishness and showing off disguised as charitable good deeds. 

I’ve avoided Movember because my efforts at growing facial hair are reminiscent of breeding mole rats on my upper lip.  Armpits For August and Fannuary have felt very worthy but a bit exclusive.  And Ginuary and Septembeer are just figments of my imagination that I offer (for an exorbitant fee) to any global drinks behemoth looking for one of the aforementioned PR scams.

But having failed to toast the start the 2020s with a glass of champagne I went cold turkey on alcohol in a dry January that makes Death Valley look like an oasis.  Just two weeks into the month I realized that I was also facing Blue Monday, the most depressing day of the year, with all the cheer of the aforementioned chilly piece of poultry.  And that’s as much a downer as listening to a synth-pop and alternative dance song, composed on a prototype-level homebrew “step-time” sequencer in binary code.

The famous New Order song, Blue Monday, is about judgement, control and abuse apparently and has been ranked as the 38th most acclaimed song of all time.  Evidence, if it were ever needed that for most people that the only thing better than a 7-inch single with four minutes of misery is a 12-inch remix with seven minutes of anguish.  I much prefer Fats Domino’s idea of ‘Blue Monday’ with the comforting thought that ‘Sunday mornin’ my head is bad, but it’s worth it for the time that I had’.

I do have a certain affection for the Blue Monday concept because it is a masterpiece in meme development by my good friend, PR genius and East-End boy about town, Andy Green.  In 2005 he adopted the idea of the most depressing day of the year from Porter Novelli and turned it into a multi-year media hit.  It’s always struck me that as a lifelong West Ham fan Andy has probably had more Blue Saturdays than most so giving the tag to a Monday was extraordinarily selfless.

And all of this with the gloomiest month of the year yet to come because in the northern hemisphere February is the dead zone between the carousing of Christmas and the sunlight of Spring.  Little surprise that FebFast, the Australian movement urging a break from alcohol, sugar, caffeine, and digital overload, never made it over the equator.  Also, pretty cunning of the Aussies to keep their abstinence to the shortest month of the year.     

Strictly speaking I’m not admitting to ‘doing’ dry January because that would interfere with my bid to secure a 28th Amendment that safeguards the freedom for anyone to have an alcoholic beverage whenever they want.  My case is based on the premise that one of the most scarring moments of my life was pitching a tent on a rainy Sunday evening in Wales and then finding that I was in a county which still banned the sale of alcohol on the Sabbath.  And I can assure you that in rural Wales at the time ‘bootlegs’ were just a local form of pernicious and extensive trench foot and speakeasies were a reference to the loquaciousness of Cymru’s favourite sons.

For the record the Sunday Closing (Wales) Act 1881 banned the sale of alcohol in Welsh pubs on the Sabbath and was not repealed until 1961.  Local referendums followed and it wasn’t until 1996 that Dwyfor – now part of Gwynedd – became the last district in Wales to drop the ban.  A commentator even argued, “Without the coffee shop, would Dylan Thomas have been the same writer?”, when the mighty Welsh poetic giant, my personal favourite, seemed no stranger to a whiskey or seven.

As I’m in a country where Prohibition is still within living memory, I think I have a right to be nervous on this score.   This January is the 100th anniversary of the Eighteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution coming into effect.  It was ratified in 1919, and was not repealed until December 1933 with the ratification of the Twenty-first Amendment.  It wasn’t illegal, under Federal law, to drink per se but for those without a home distillery the ban on transportation and sale probably meant 14 years without a legal drink.

As it happens and as one of the world’s inveterate ‘joiner inners’ I have always respected the cultures of countries where alcohol is generally unavailable.  On trips to Saudi Arabia and Pakistan I did not go the easy route of completing the form in the hotel saying that I required drink for ‘medical purposes’.  It felt uneasily like signing up as dependent and sitting in a hotel room with miniatures has never appealed to me.

The question on the mind of anybody who has made it this far in the blog should be – how do I actually feel after not drinking for 24 days, 5 hours and 35 minutes.  The dull truth is that it’s been easy but tedious.  There have been times of day (early evenings) when a glass of wine would have been welcome, occasions (watching football) when a beer is missed and social moments (the Whistlestop on a Friday evening) that have just not been the same.    

On the positive side my running times have been excellent and for anyone with sufficient vanity I can confirm that after several weeks it helps reduce any midriff bulges.  But I am not sleeping any better and I have not noticed a healthy glow to my skin.  All the research and evidence would suggest that my liver and other internal organs are in better shape and that I will live a little longer.

But it has reminded me of the saying that ‘nobody remembers the nights they went to bed early and got plenty of sleep’.  That’s not an argument for returning to the frequency of wilder days with their plethora of amusing, sad, and startling memories with people who will be grateful not to be named in public.  But tequila shots in the early morning at the THE Awards and Education Investor nights at the Italian bar opposite Ronnie Scott’s were the only possible preparation for the endurance test known as the Global Recruitment Conference. 

It’s difficult to say if I’ll keep going to the end of January and I already have a slightly subversive view that it’s a cruel and unusual month of fasting that ends on a Friday night.  Maybe that’s the point where a small toast to the good times, the future and the ability to make choices is appropriate.  Cheers everyone.   

Image by Annalise Batista from Pixabay     

Nine out of ten international students (might) prefer….

If governments and educational institutions are serious about differentiation, market segmentation and strategic marketing they should be wary of headline grabbing boasts driven by shallow or questionable research.  It’s been a recurring and growing occurrence in recent years but is unlikely to lead to the type of self-analysis and improvement that will build competitive advantage.  There are plenty of examples but a small sample relating to international students and taken from the four main recruiting countries is sufficient to show the problem.       

A recent PIE article trumpeted the ‘overwhelming satisfaction’ that international student have with their experience in US higher education.  The World Education Services (WES) survey, ‘Are US HEIs meeting the needs of international students?’ asserts that 91% of respondents are ‘overwhelmingly satisfied with their experience studying in the U.S’.  But the report itself makes the point that the survey findings ‘may not be generalizable’ to the US international student population and may suffer from ‘self-selection and sample biases.’  There’s certainly plenty to question about how representative a sample of 1,921 self-selecting students can be. 

This outcome has similarities to the recent UUKi Graduate Outcome Survey 2019 carrying the line that over 90% of graduates who studied in the UK were ‘satisfied or very satisfied with all aspects of their lives’ (UUKi Graduate Outcome Survey 2019).  As noted in a previous blog the UUKi Survey is flawed for reasons that are as uncomfortable in terms of the ways universities engage with alumni.  Only 6% of the total respondents were from China and, as a footnote confirms, “in the year 17-18, Chinese students made up 33% of the total non-EU student population…”.               

Looking further afield Canada’s 2018 CBIE Survey indicated that ‘93% of students stated that they are either satisfied..or very satisfied’ with their experience.  The sample size of 14,228 is noted as 4% of total post-secondary students in Canada so still a relatively small group.  And the percentage from south and east Asia was only 45% compared to at least 70% of Canada’s international students coming from those regions.

Of the big four recruiting countries Australia’s DET 2018 International Student survey  saw an impressive 27% response rate from international students.  The outcome was that 89% ‘were satisfied or very satisfied with their living and learning experience in Australia’.  Regrettably, there is no access to underlying data to determine how representative the sample is of the international population.

In their publicity material, however, Australia makes claims about its performance in comparison to others across the world.  What is peculiar about these claims is that the margins are wafer thin with, for example, ‘satisfaction with learning’ showing as Australia 88.5% Other Countries 87.5%.  And the comparison source is shown as *International Student Barometer (incorporating scores from hosting countries including USA, Canada, UK and New Zealand).  The obvious question is – who else does it include?

Readers who are concentrating will have notice an interesting echo across all of the results – 91% (WES), over 90% (UUKI), 93% (CBIE) and 89% (DET).  This suggests that there may be a self-fulfilling nature to these surveys with the international students who take part simply more likely to be satisfied.  Those who found the experience less helpful may just be looking to get on with their lives after a poor experience that has left them struggling to find graduate level employment.

It’s a reminder of the minor marketing furore in the UK, where a well-known advertising slogan for cat food Whiskas was “eight out of ten owners said their cat prefers it”.  After a complaint to the Advertising Standards Authority, this was changed to “eight out of ten owners who expressed a preference said their cat prefers it”.  Perhaps student surveys should come with similar, upfront cautions about their relevance, authority and comprehensiveness.

Another manifestation of the problem is the tendency to cherry-pick data, draw misleading comparisons or ignore longer-term trends in the pursuit of self-congratulatory platitudes.   This can happen with students surveys or enrollment counts. But it’s all part of the bland, self-congratulatory spin.   

Nicola Dandridge, chief executive of the Office for Students, welcomed the UK’s 2019 National Student Survey with the words: ‘It is good news that overall satisfaction with higher education courses remains high this year.”  The full statement recorded that satisfaction had risen to 84% from 83% the year before.  No mention of the fact that in 2014 and 2015 the satisfaction rate was 86%  and, on that measure, fewer students are satisfied than five years ago.

Some might argue that when the survey first came out in 2005 the overall satisfaction rate was only 81.3% and so there has been an improvement over the longer timescale.  A reasonable response to that would be that universities are full of academics who are good at passing tests and that the Survey has been ‘gamed’ so improvement was inevitable.  Institutions quickly worked out how to optimize response rates and manage academic behavior in ways that improved their rankings.

For those interested in more reading on the NSS, The Economics Network has done a really nice analysis of results across a number of dimensions, subjects and sector groups.  As an example, the Russell Group of universities has, since 2015, seen a precipitous fall in positive responses to the statement, ‘Assessment arrangements and marking have been fair’.  It fairs no better on overall satisfaction with scores of 86.5% in 2010 falling to just over 81% in 2019.

Finally, and as an example where enrollment data can be interpreted in ways that distort more worrying trends, there is official reaction to the latest Open Doors press release.  As mentioned in several blogs and most recently in December it’s difficult to accept the headline that ‘Number of International Students in the United States Hits All-Time High’ with anything more than a sigh.  Including OPT students who are doing post-study work and not directly contributing to universities either financially or academically seems an almost deliberate attempt to draw attention away from two years of decline in those enrolled.

It is reasonable to believe that the surveys mentioned and the individuals quoted are well intentioned, but the best organizations are obsessed with using research to find out what can be improved, and they realize the difference between the PR ‘puff’ and game-changing insights.  Higher education decision makers need to be more demanding of student surveys and focus their thinking on students who are unhappy or who are not trying the product at all.  They might also care to look harder at whether graduates are finding their degree has genuinely opened up better options, or whether they are benefiting from the ‘aftercare’ service implicit in alumni relations promises.

Colleagues elsewhere in the sector have also commented extensively on the ‘survey fatigue’ that is reducing response rates and undermining credibility.  But there should be equal concern about the self-interest of organizations that accept the status quo even when it is manifestly inadequate.  Far better to follow the line that made Bill Gates one of the richest people in the world – “Your most unhappy customers are your greatest source of learning.”

Image by Florian Bollmann from Pixabay

Another Canadian University Pathway Coming Soon?

Pathway operators have been focused on getting contracts with universities in Canada for several years but there has been little real momentum.  All the more interesting to catch rumours of Navitas nearing a breakthrough with Ryerson University.  It’s worth having a look at whether there’s any strength to them.

Exhibit one would be the university’s Senate Meeting Agenda of 1 October 2019.  Pages 78 to 83 have a summary of meetings ‘from the President’s Calendar’ and there, hiding in plain sight on page 82, is the entry:

Jul 29, 2019: Over dinner, I met with Rod Jones, group CEO for Navitas worldwide; Scott Jones, nonexecutive chair of the board for Navitas worldwide; and Brian Stevenson, president and CEO, university partnerships, Navitas North America. We discussed the potential for Ryerson to bring in international students through the pathways to university education that Navitas offers.

The information had previously been shared at the Board of Governors meeting on September 20, 2019.  So we know that Ryerson’s President Mohamed Lachemi has been meeting with senior people from Navitas although that might not be considered unusual.  But there’s a little bit more to report.

Recent social media shows President Lachemi escaping the Canadian winter in the past couple of weeks and ‘expanding Ryerson’s relationships with leading universities’ in Australia.  This might be unexceptional but the twittersphere also suggests visits to Griffith College and Deakin College – two Navitas centers – arranged by Navitas.  And it sounds like there have been more meetings with senior Navitas folk.

There’s no way of confirming the market gossip and I am always happy to clarify the situation if an authoritative source gets in touch. Ryerson has certainly been in conversation with at least one external operator in the past but given the rise of Canada as an international student recruitment magnet it’s questionable what benefits such a relationship brings.  Some commentators might argue they could organize themselves to take advantage of the momentum behind enrollments.

Once clue might be that Ryerson looks to have been left lagging despite the surge in interest for the country with the world’s longest bi-national land border.  There are thirty Canadian universities listed in the THE 2020 World Ranking top 1000 and the percentage of international students at Ryerson is the lowest of all.  At 4% it is well behind other, admittedly higher ranked, Toronto institutions like the University of Toronto (21%) and York University (24%).

Ryerson’s global ranking in the THE ranking 601-800 bracket places it behind the other Navitas partners in Canada.  The University of Manitoba is ranked in the 351-400 bracket and has 17% international students and Simon Fraser University is in the 251-300 bracket with 30% international students.  This might suggest that there is plenty of scope for Ryerson to grow with the right sort of support.

It would be the third public research university to partner with Navitas and would give the portfolio added depth.  The only other pathway provider with representation in Canada is Study Group who have one public research university in Royal Roads and two sub-degree colleges in Stenberg and the Center for Arts and Technology. 

With US enrollments still struggling and the maturity of the UK and Australian pathway markets it’s easy to see why there is interest in Canada.  Interest remains strong amongst students and agents with little sign of applications slowing.  But everyone with a history in international recruitment knows that past performance is no guarantee of future success.

The international student boom in Canada has come with some issues that are increasingly grabbing the headlines.  There are allegations of students being ‘duped by unscrupulous agents’, scarcity of part-time work and up to 39% of study visa applications being rejected.  It’s difficult to believe that interest will slump quickly or precipitously but it may be time for wise heads to consider what a sustainable rate of growth might look like.

Image by David Peterson from Pixabay

AN ENGLISHMAN ABROAD AND BAD BLOOD

An emergency call for donors by the San Diego Blood Bank was a real opportunity for an expat to show their commitment to the community and their new countrymen.  With O-positive in particular demand I felt appreciated, welcomed and worthy.  Slinking out an hour later with a sore finger and the ignominy of rejection was a reminder that there are some things you can’t even give away.

It was all going very well as I chatted to the assistant about my history of blood donation in the UK and my happiness at being part of the experience in my new country.  The pain of the finger prick was forgotten as we celebrated my healthy count of red platelets.  And my blood pressure was doing just fine despite the New Year celebrations and the anxiety which besets any Manchester United supporter on a weekly basis.

We moved on to questions about countries visited and there was a small moment of panic as I tried to remember dates visiting Pakistan and Thailand.  Maps were produced and the red indicated malaria probability, but I was happy to give reassurance that I probably drank enough tonic with quinine (and a little gin) to be safe.  It seemed plain sailing and I was looking forward to the lying down for twenty minutes part when the axe fell.

Did I live in the UK between 1980 and 1996 sounded like a trick question and I am sure my eyes narrowed as I tried to work out if I’d accidentally walked into a Homeland Security inquisition.  I checked the room for cameras and was wondering whether I should have been read my rights.  For some reason the line ‘Fee, Fo, Fi, Fum, I smell the blood of an Englishman’ came to mind.

But the look of disappointment on my inquisitor’s face was evident as he expressed his disappointment that I really was English and had lived there for so long.  My blood could not be taken and it was all down to the initials vCJD and BSE.  The American Red Cross and the Food and Drug Agency thinks that the English all have mad cow disease.

As usual a flood of bad jokes came to mind.  I don’t find it very amoosing.  Pull the udder one.  I’ve never herd that before.  As it was, the first words out of my mouth were, ‘I thought we had moved on from that.’  The irony was wasted on both of us and I really wish I had said ‘moooooved on’.

If ever evidence that life is circular it took me back to early 1996 when I was at ASDA and a firm link was drawn between bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and variant Creutzfeld-Jakob disease in humans.  Just six years earlier Agriculture Minister John Selwyn Gummer had shown his belief that UK beef was safe for people by feeding his 4-year old daughter, Cordelia, a burger for the cameras.  I’m pleased to report that as of the latest report I can find Cordelia was healthy but by 2016 some 177 people in the UK had died of the disease and that may not be the end of the problem.

At the time it seemed another food crisis to match Health Minister Edwina Currie claiming in 1988 that salmonella was endemic in UK egg production.  Inevitably labelled ‘Eggwina’ by the tabloids she was forced to resign but the ensuing crisis led to more scrutiny of the food chain and advice for the vulnerable.  Both incidents are good reminders that you can never be too careful about what you put on your plate or in your body.

Which brings me back to blood because I now know that if you lived for more than 3 months in the UK between 1980 and 1996 you might struggle to donate blood in any part of the western world.  The ban in the US is replicated in Canada, Australia and many parts of Europe (including Germany and France).  There’s little chance of it being lifted and that’s probably the right answer given the extraordinary importance of keeping blood banks pure and unsullied. 

For the interested there is an explanation of the system used by the NHS Blood and Transplant service in the UK and how they protect users.  Nobody needs to worry too much on that score and it would appear that the original horror stories of 500,000 or more dying of vCJD will continue to be well wide of the mark.  Giving blood remains an important way of contributing to society and to the world admired NHS.

The blood ban is particularly ironical at a point where there is growing concern in the UK about the potential of imports from the US as deals are done after Brexit.  It’s interesting to read that in addition to concerns over chlorine washed chickens there appear to be ten US foods that are widely banned from import around the world.  It could certainly spoil your meal to think you were eating or drinking ractopamine, brominated vegetable oil or butylated hydroxyanisole.

My comfort is that the ban on UK expatriates giving blood is that it reflects the reality of what I always think of as actuarial decision making.  Apparently, the ban enacted was estimated to lose the US health system something of the order of 2.2% of its blood donations a year.  It’s an amount that can probably be made up from improved publicity and management of donors and that’s far better than infecting someone with bad blood (or the cost of the law suit that might follow).  If the impact was greater then one can assume that different precautions would be taken.

It is slightly sad to know that I will never be able to think of a US citizen as being tied to me by blood or give freely to meet one of society’s needs.  Maybe on my next visit to the UK I will look for a time when the NHS is in town and giving out free tea and biscuits for a pint or two of the red stuff.  Or maybe I’ll just sit around and wonder why cows can’t wear shoes….*

*Because they lac-toes😉        

Image by Peggy und Marco Lachmann-Anke from Pixabay