Month: July 2018

Unconditional Manipulation

The latest shouting match about UK universities giving students unconditional offers is drowning out the reality that the system is broken.  It also ignores the likely reality that demographics will solve the problem in due course.  But for now, and probably in the future, the playground bullies of government and UniversitiesUK will ignore the real victims – the students.

Here are some of the main reasons.

The evidence suggests that A-level predictions have always been a poor way to select students for university.  A report, Predicted Grades: accuracy and impact based on the A-level results of 1.3 million young people over three years showed that only one in six A-level grade predictions were accurate. Three-quarters of actual grades turned out to be lower than teachers had estimated, while just one in 10 were higher.

Universities know this but have been happy to play along for many years.  Indeed, it was a very useful thing to know when they faced a cap, with financial penalties for exceeding the limit, on the number of students enrolled.  Universities could make more offers than they had places for, knowing that a significant proportion of students would miss their grades and could be rejected.

Then the game changed.

The cap was lifted and each individual student was worth more because of the introduction of fees.  Universities had been on a major spending spree to build accommodation and so the need to enrol sufficient volume was no longer just an academic matter.  And the growth in international students slowed significantly making UK students increasingly valuable.

The remorseless weight of demographics also played its part as the Office for National Statistics graph below shows.  The number of UK students of university age has been declining for several years so institutions wanted to ‘fill their boots’ with as many as possible. The need was particularly acute because the decline in university age students will continue to fall for another couple of years.

For universities the ambition was to recruit as many students as necessary to fill the gap while finding ways to ensure that they got the best students possible.  One way to manage that was to give unconditional offers to students that are in the A to B range for their A-levels while knowing that a proportion will slip to C or even lower. Students keen to get to the best quality university forsake their insurance offer and may mentally switch off on doing their best at A-level.

Worth remembering here that the first big name to go to ‘unconditional offers’ was the University of Birmingham who would be in search of top-quality students.  Also worth remembering that University planning offices are filled with terrifyingly bright people who eat statistics for breakfast.  They can predict with reasonable certainty how many students can afford to slip an A-level grade but are still likely to achieve a good degree (because the institution doesn’t want its league table position to slip).

A cynic would add that one of the points about emerging grade inflation in university awards is that the institution has the absolute power to manipulate the grades its students get.  So even if the slippage in A-level points for the intake is damaging on one league table measure it can easily be made up for by an increase in the number of students getting a 2:1 or better.  When organisations are autonomous and self-governing there is very little to prevent them making the rules up as they go along.

It’s a perfect storm of financial commitments, student scarcity, and a broken application system with poor data that the sector has consistently failed to fix. When you add to that mix the reality that universities can fix the outcomes it is no surprise they choose to game the system.  Even if it’s not in the interests of the students.

But time will change these dynamics.

Even if nothing else changes the demographics of the UK will change behaviours. As the ONS data (above) shows the university may not have enough places by 2030 to take all the candidates that want to go.  Faced with more students than they need universities will tighten their offer policies and the unconditional offer will become as rare as rocking horse droppings.  It’s a situation where the basics of supply and demand provide a market solution.

But that seems to me to be cold comfort to students who have little insight and no voice at all in the way the system runs.  Their plight is made worse by the constant changes in Government policy and the responses of self-interested universities.  About time somebody set about mending the underlying system and holding people to account.

Understandable Caution About Students (UCAS) As Deadline Passes

The UCAS release of June deadline undergraduate applications is a snapshot giving insights into potential international (non-European Union) enrolments in the UK for September 2018. The scenario is a bit like England reaching the World Cup semi-final stage – enough to excite and build expectation. But we all know what happened next in that story.

News to cheer is that the number of applicants is up 4,550 from last year’s figure and 75,380 applicants looks like strong growth against last year’s 70,830. But underneath the headlines there are some interesting trends and nuances. It’s also worth bearing in mind that the UK’s compound annual growth rate for applicants is only 2.24% a year over the three years since 2014/15.

The other interesting factor may be the need of UK universities to fill the gap left by declining numbers of home student applicants – over 18,000 down year on year for 2018 entry. This seems certain to drive vigorous competition for existing international applicants. And the race to convert students in the last chance saloon of clearing will equal the stress levels of any penalty shootout.

MOMENTUM HAS SLOWED
A bird in the hand may be worth two in the bush as far as applications are concerned but early momentum in the recruitment cycle has fallen away. Year-on-year percentage growth of applicants has declined with each of the four UCAS deadlines. From a high in October of 11.7% it has fallen to a solid but less exciting 6.4% at the end of June.
Source: UCAS

This follows a broad trend in the growth in volume of international applicants applying between the January deadline and the June deadline slowing. In 2014/15 there were 18,510 additional applicants while in 2017/18 it has been 16,930. That’s growth of 35.6% and 29% respectively on the January total in each year.

It seems likely that students and agents are getting better organised earlier in the year.  That would be a reasonable response to some of the changes in visa requirements and language testing in recent year.  But it places an emphasis on speed of response to applications and the strengthening of conversion campaigns early in the cycle.
Source: UCAS

EARLY APPLICATIONS STRONG BUT MEDICINE LAGGING
Nearly 30% (1,350) of the total growth in international applicants came by the October deadline for students applying for Oxbridge or courses in medicine. However, the number applying for medical courses (3,310) remains below the 2014 figure of 3,490 despite the number of new medical places in recent years. It seems possible that competition is significantly undermining the attraction of UK medical courses and we know, for example, that as long ago as 2015 eighty per cent of Indian students in China were following undergraduate clinical medical courses (Source: The Economic Times, May 25, 2015).

The rise in non-medicine applicants is a strong step forward but the drivers are unclear. HESA figures suggest that between 2013/14 and 2016/17 both Oxford and Cambridge increase their total undergraduate population by 20% or more. It is possible that they are pushing on more aggressively and stimulating interest.

Alongside this is the growing flexibility of Russell Group universities, as evidenced by the number now making unconditional offers, and their hunger for international students. International students and their advisers may believe that their chances of successfully enrolling in a well-known, highly ranked UK university have never been better. At a macro-level the rise in early applications suggests that strong, well-ranked brands will do best out of any increase in applicants this year.

Source: UCAS

RELIANCE ON CHINA CONTINUES
Overall and as expected China and India have posted the largest uplift in terms of students applying – up by 1,850 and 1,100 year on year respectively. It seems possible that the UK is partly a beneficiary of what could become a very difficult enrolment period for universities in the US. In that respect the next biggest growth in international applicants is 300 from the USA.

Despite the good omens experienced international recruitment teams will not be counting their students before they arrive. The UK government’s failure to ease the visa situation for students from India by making the country ‘low risk’ could still play badly. But there must be reasonably strong expectations of a solid year for enrolments at this point.
Source: UCAS

CLEARING LIKELY TO REMAIN IMPORTANT
Another factor is clearing which includes all students applying after the June deadline. Over the past five years the peak number of international students ‘placed’ in universities in the 28 days after A-level day was 7,260 in 2014. This fell year on year before increasing slightly to 6,500 in 2017.

There are a lot of students available and most universities have strengthened their ability to operate efficiently at home and internationally under the pressure of clearing. Making on the spot offers, converting interest and having strong teams in place, including academics, are commonplace. Again, the well-known names would expect to dominate but as they fill there is opportunity for others to compete.

Source: UCAS

AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL – BUT REASONS TO BE CAUTIOUS
My previous blog  showed that growth in international enrolments over the past five years has been dominated by metropolitan, Russell Group names. It is reasonable to assume that large, globally-ranked and well-known universities will now dive even more deeply into the pool of international students than ever before.   The economic pressure and the likely shortfall in UK students over coming years will make this a priority.

And the wise will realise that the increase in their own applicant pool may be undermined by multiple applications.  My analysis of the UCAS numbers suggests that while there are 4,550 additional applicants there are an additional 21,010 applications in the system.  Over 3,600 of the additional applicants made the maximum of five applications and the majority of the rest made at least three.
Source: UCAS

Accidents Will Happen

In response to Jillian Braverman’s recent post about learning more from mistakes than successes I committed to select some examples from my own career. The whole process was a good reminder about the benefits of reflective practice. Getting better at accepting personal fallibility is a reasonable defence against being careless, neglectful or just plain stupid.

It also helps to avoid the trap of ‘unconscious competency’ where a level of mastery and familiarity encourages repeating actions without conscious evaluation. I’m grateful to Andy Green for introducing me to the notion of ‘super-competency’ where someone who is highly accomplished in a discipline continually challenges and refreshes their skill. The best people never stop learning.

Some of the greatest creative forces in history have also pointed to the danger of believing excellence in a skill or a way of thinking is an end in itself. Picasso observed that, ‘It took me four years to paint like Raphael, but a lifetime to paint like a child.’ Leonardo da Vinci said that, “The greatest deception men suffer is from their own opinions.” Throughout their lives they were involved in a relentless search for improvement.

While few can match the creativity and inventiveness of these titans my small contribution here is three occasions when errors have held valuable lessons and changed my way of thinking.

CLARIFY THE BRIEF AND ITS IMPLICATIONS
Late in the process of producing an Annual Report, I was asked by an HR Director to arrange a short version to be sent to all 70,000+ staff. Under time pressure and wanting to impress I re-drafted the text as a summary, re-purposed the existing visuals and got the design agency to do layout for free. I felt pretty good about having got the job done in budget and on-time.

But at final proof stage the HR Director said he had wanted something original and entirely focused on the employee audience. My annoyance at time and effort wasted was only exceeded by my embarrassment at failing to clarify the brief. Always understand the purpose and intended outcomes of a job before starting it and make sure that you have clarified the time and cost implications of any course of action.

Kipling is instructive:
I keep six honest serving-men
(They taught me all I knew);
Their names are What and Why and When
And How and Where and Who.

(“I keep six honest serving-men.” Rudyard Kipling. First published in the Ladies’ Home Journal, April 1900)

It is also usually worth reminding budget-holders making late requests that the iron triangle comprising cost, speed and quality can usually only have two side fulfilled at the same time.

BEWARE HUBRIS AND LACK OF PREPARATION
One of my employer’s open-plan office culture led to the wearing of ‘red caps’ to indicate you were not to be disturbed. Local interest had me appearing on regional TV where, on the spur of the moment, I stated that we thought it was a great gift for the upcoming Father’s Day. Slightly carried away by my own cleverness I said that we’d be selling them in one of our local stores that Saturday.

The scramble to source red caps, at anything like a reasonable cost, involved the whole team for the next two days. Particularly when I decided that they needed to have a big D, for Dad, emblazoned on them. But I took delivery of the caps late one night and found myself in a nearby store early the next morning.

Given a prime spot near the entrance and alongside the clothing section I was confident that I would be sold out and back home by noon. 12 hours later I had not sold one, despite the asking price plummeting from a fiver (which was at cost) to 50p. I could not bring myself to just give them away but had learnt many lessons.

Making a claim without thinking it through is not a good place to start. Compounding the situation by adding specifications, something akin to ‘mission drift’, is equally unwise. But most importantly I learnt at first hand and on my own time how hard it is to make money by selling things. It was an early step on a long road from being in public relations to leading a £100m turnover commercial organisation.

MUTUAL APPRECIATION AND ENTHUSIASM ARE RARELY ENOUGH
After several years in one job I was slightly restless and applying for anything that looked interesting. When the call came it was welcome, the process rapid and it felt like love at first sight. The lure of global opportunity and building a team from a low base seemed too good to miss.

Sadly, I had missed that what attracted the company to me were things I had done earlier in my career but were not my intended direction of development. An early visit to the parent company disabused me of my belief that I would be able to spread my wings internationally. And the ‘low base’ was destined to stay that way for the foreseeable future.

In relationships it is in the interests of both parties to temper good rapport with critical thinking. I was flattered by the attention and I did not ask enough questions to understand their situation. As importantly, I was not wholly transparent about my expectations.

Whether it’s a new job, a business partner or a personal friend there is not enough goodwill or money in the world to make it work long term unless aspirations, values and practicalities are honestly shared. And you have to be prepared to walk away however much you like people and want things to work out.

*****

Mistakes are part of learning and it is reasonable to expect that if you are pushing hard and on the edges of your ability or experience you will make more of them. As long as you have not staked what you or your company cannot afford to lose, every error brings insight and few are terminal. It’s always good advice to believe that what matters is what you do next.