Category: Education

Open Doors or Closing Time for US Pathways?

Open Doors data for 2021/22 confirmed trends that have already become evident in the UK and are likely to shape the future of global student recruitment for several years.  It also points to some stark realities for pathway operators that may cast a shadow over any hopes for a post-pandemic recovery in the US.  Most starkly, the recovery was marked by the highest ever new postgraduate intake, largely driven by students from India, while new undergraduate enrollment was only just above 2011/12 levels.

Will China Bounce or Break or Will It Depend Where It’s Dropped?

One of the biggest questions facing pathway operators in the US is whether enrollment numbers from China have reached a low point and will rebound.  The overall number of degree students from China enrolled in 2021/22 was 232,674 which was 16.7% down on 2017.  Undergraduate enrollments were down 26.3%.

However, the impact is not the same across all states.  Consideration of the 25 states with more than 10,000 international students in 2017 shows four who increased the overall number of “Foreign Students in the State” – Arizona, Massachusetts, North Carolina and Maryland. The first two made significant percentage increases from India while the latter two also increased the percentage enrolled from China

By contrast the two states with the largest percentage loss in international students over the five years were Oregon (-42.4%) and Iowa (-34%).  Of the 25 states, they had the highest percentage of students from China and in the case of Oregon the second highest percentage was from Saudi Arabia rather than India in 2017.  The leading universities in each state – Oregon State University, Corvallis and Iowa State University – lost 26.7% and 30% of international students enrollment respectively.    

  *Information from Open Doors Fact Sheets 2017 and 2022.  Numbers relate to “foreign students in the state”. 

A thoughtfully argued piece in University World News has suggested that a variety of factors could see a significant rebound by Autumn 2025.  This is tempered by factors including the growing strength of other recruiting countries and the developing academic quality of Chinese universities.  Others have suggested that unpredictable geopolitics, the potential for online delivery and universities desire for diversity may be major factors suppressing demand from China. 

Either way it seems an unpredictable future and not something to bet the house on.  Certainly, US universities wanting to rebuild their numbers are going to have to think long and hard about products, price points, promotion and graduate employability.  It seems possible that as global alternatives increase, recruitment markets change and in-country competition stiffens the role of pathways will come under further scrutiny.    

Pathways Poser

Responses by the main pathway operators to changing market dynamics have differed.  A previous blog illustrated Shorelight’s pivot from pathways to direct recruitment options but there has been little sign of such significant movement from its main US competitor, INTO University Partnerships (IUP).  The situation in Oregon, home to key IUP partner Oregon State University (OSU), suggests that the need for action may be growing.   

OSU provides long term, consistent enrollment reporting though its Office of Institutional Research which gives some weight to this thinking.  Despite the 2021/22 growth reported in the Open Doors data, OSU did not show international postgraduate growth in Fall 2021.  Fall 2022 numbers show another overall decline in international enrollments driven by falling undergraduate numbers and only limited growth in postgraduates.   

*These figures include all INTO Oregon State University (INTO OSU) pathway enrollments except Academic English

The impact of declining numbers from China is evident.  Despite recruitment support for direct admits from pathway partners IUP there seems to be limited ability to accelerate enrollment of students from other markets to compensate.  While the number of students coming from India to enrol is showing reasonable growth it is starting from a low base. 

Overall enrollment has been impacted by a continuing decline in the INTO OSU pathway operation.  Undergraduate pathway enrollments in Fall 2022 were down 80% over five years (and 65% on 2019), while graduate pathway enrollments were down 57% over five years (and 62% since 2019).  Total enrollments for INTO OSU have fallen 72% since 2017.

A previous review of Fall 2022 preliminary numbers from INTO George Mason University showed that IUP’s pathway operation at that university was struggling to bounce back after the pandemic but there was no information available concerning countries of origin.  INTO OSU data offers country insights and shows that three of the four main countries of origin have seen declines, with China falling from 581 students to 48 over 5 years (92%).  Numbers from India have shown small fluctuations but in Fall 2022 the intake of 16 was the same as in 2017.

Money Matters

Alongside declining volumes the INTO OSU debt to IUP increases.  This is, presumably, all well and good if the joint venture can generate enough pathway enrollments or find alternative revenue streams to pay the debt back over time.  However, three of IUP’s US joint ventures have closed in recent years – at Colorado State University, Marshall University and Washington State University – with a fourth, at St Louis University now wholly owned. 

The joint venture at the University of South Florida is not currently recruiting and is under threat.   Recent court filings have shown that USF Financing Corporation (USFFC) sought a “declaratory judgment that the 2010 stockholders Agreement between USF FC, the Company, and the INTO Defendants is terminated as of April 21, 2022.” The grounds were that the joint venture is “insolvent under both a balance sheet basis and inability to pay debts as they become due, and (b) has demonstrated a material adverse financial position where it could not perform all or a substantial part of its obligations..”.

*Taken from IUP annual reports up to and including that for the year ended 31 July 2021.  Excludes INTO SLU which is wholly owned, INTO USF which is not currently recruiting and INTO Hofstra which the INTO University Partnerships annual report does not record as a joint venture.

**The 2021 Financial Statements of Illinois State University (p.50) note that “INTO ISU has an agreement with its two partners, Global and INTO NA, which allows INTO ISU to borrow up to $6,000,000 in operating capital from INTO NA with an interest rate of 6%…. INTO ISU has outstanding borrowings with INTO NA in the amounts of $6,000,000 and accrued interest of $488,392 for the year ended June 30, 2021.”  INTO NA is a wholly owned subsidiary of INTO University Partnership Limited (IUP).

Reflections and Realities

Global pathway operators have many creative, flexible and commercially minded individuals but it’s worth remembering Margaret Thatcher’s dictum that “there is no way in which one can buck the market.”  Open Doors provides a picture of 2021/22 but as more universities report on their Fall 2022 enrollments it becomes even clearer that the dynamics have changed.  With all four major recruiting countries having relatively benign government policies it is no time to be clinging to outdated models with 2023 recruitment already starting.

Notes

As always the text reflects my understanding of the data. I am happy to receive any alternative thoughts or corrections from authoritative sources.

Image by Kingrise from Pixabay 

Let’s Do the Time Warp…Again*

Back in September 2021, pre-pandemic and five Tory Education ministers** ago, a blog shortly after the restoration of post-study work visas reflected how this might be a factor in the party’s continuing tensions around immigration .  Suella Braverman’s speech to the party conference this week highlighted that the issue still exists and suggest a fault line through which university hopes for international student recruitment could fall.  It is not surprising that vested interests in higher education, who have been licking their lips at enrollment growth, have responded so vigorously.

With a bit of a mind flip, You’re into the time slip

Among the first in line for the defence was ApplyBoard Advisory Board Chairman, Jo Johnson, who also leads the company’s UK Advisory Board and its worthies in helping build the company’s business in the UK.   He was interestingly narrow in his choice of words and vaunted the importance of international students “..if we want to be a science superpower.”  It’s an echo of the original announcement from Priti Patel, in September 2019, which said the new Graduate Route ‘will mean talented international students, whether in science and maths or technology and engineering, can study in the UK…’

The suspicious might think that this continues to lay the groundwork for a downgrading of the humanities or some form of quota system that favours the sciences above humanities when it comes to dishing out visas.  Almost inevitably that would play to the interests of the established hierarchy of universities with their lion’s share of science funding and students.  Those who don’t think these hierarchies have any place in Government policy, or that Ministers won’t allow league tables to distort thinking, would do well to remember that the High Potential Individual visa is currently restricted to graduates of 37 universities who have successfully navigated, manipulated or, for some, misrepresented their way into two of three nominated global rankings.

It’s just a jump to the left, And then a step to the right

Back in May 2022 when the High Potential Individual visa was launched, then Chancellor Rishi Sunak (remember him) was proud it helped “to create one of the world’s most attractive visa regimes for entrepreneurs and highly skilled people.”  This seems to have been a little too much of an open door for some and there are reports of the Home Office beginning a review of the number of dependants accompanying international students studying in the UK.  The numbers tell their own story with study visas up 71% from 2019 to 2022 while dependants have gone up over five times.

Perhaps helpfully, if they are looking for beneficial treatment in the future, the Russell Group institutions may be able to argue that it is universities outside their club that are driving the change.  As noted in a February 2022 blog the RG universities were growing numbers from China while other universities were taking the opportunities afforded by growth from India and Nigeria as source markets.  This may be important in formulating Home Office thinking because the Telegraph reported that “34,000 Nigerian students accounted for 31,898 dependants while the 93,100 Indian students accounted for 24,916.”

 The siren voices on the right are unlikely to let the issue rest.  Alp Mehmet, chairman of Migration Watch UK, said: “It has been clear for years that a significant number of those coming to study and their dependants use it as a route into work and settlement.  It is yet another mode of uncontrolled and uncapped migration, often, feeding the demand for low-skilled and low-paid workers.”  It is a level of angst that seems likely to note that the top non-EU nationalities granted British citizenship in the latest year were Indian (16,720), Pakistani (15,624), and Nigerian (9,445) nationals and that these nationalities accounted for almost a third (31%) of all grants to non-EU nationals in the year ending June 2022.

Not for very much longer, I’ve got to keep control

The clues are all there in Braverman’s conference speech but the key word is control which appears six times in 18 sentences and particularly in terms the mission “to control our borders.”  The economy is to be developed by “..encouraging business to invest in capital and domestic labour. Not relying wholly on low-skilled foreign workers.”  The echo of Mehmet’s words above are probably no accident.

But then we are taken back to Theresa May’s statement of March 2011 where she said, “We had too many people coming here to work and not to study. We had too many foreign graduates staying on in the UK to work in unskilled jobs. And we had too many institutions selling immigration, not education.”  It was the precursor to removal of post study work visas and a moment when international student growth in the UK began to fall rapidly behind that of Australia and Canada.

By January 2013, Prime Minister David Cameron was telling the House of Commons, ‘Frankly, there are lots of people in our country desperate for jobs. We don’t need the brightest and best of students to come here and then do menial jobs.’  The real point was that PSW visas had been introduced in the UK in 2002 when unemployment was around 5% but it then rose rapidly due to the global economic recession.  A big question facing UK higher education now will be what happens in summer 2023 if the UK unemployment rate, particularly among graduates, looks to be going the wrong way at a point when a General Election is no more than 18 months away.   

It is perhaps as well for universities that the traditional measure of graduate employment is aimed at the undergraduate market but it may not be long before attention focuses on the fate of postgraduates entering a tricky job market.  The shift in balance to having India as a major driver of international enrollments has altered the dynamics and it is slightly odd, but hardly unexpected given their record, that the OsF has not caught up with the situation.  With increasing numbers of international student likely to stay and take advantage of post-study work the likelihood of competition in the postgraduate market seems obvious.   

It may seem far-fetched to consider this as a potential problem at a point when the unemployment rate fell to its lowest rate since 1974 just three months ago but the headline hides a more complex picture.  Craig Erlam, a senior market analyst at Oanda, commented, “It’s not often that you see the unemployment rate fall to the lowest in almost 50 years and aren’t overjoyed, but that will certainly be the feeling at the Bank of England right now.”  Unemployment rising to 8% looks unlikely but it is also difficult to find anyone who predicting in December 2021 that average two-year fixed mortgage rates would have moved from 2.43% to 6% in less than a year with every likelihood of going higher.

But it’s the pelvic thrust, That really drives you insane

The sub-heading offers a slightly crude metaphor for the way that competitors in the international student market, particularly Australia, might take the opportunity to build on the UK’s uncertainties, tensions and failure to take advantage of its early opening of borders.  The announcement of new post-study work rights has already swamped the claims of Sunak’s claims of an attractive visa regime and it comes with AUS$36 million to improve visa processing for international students.  It’s the type of coordinated decision making and rhetoric that becomes it much easier to point out the potential problems in the UK.

Canada, which is not without its own problems, has also announced plans to increase the number of international students and foreign workers with extensive work experience for permanent residency in areas where there is a persistent labour shortage. A sub-text is that provinces and territories will have the freedom to modify their immigration streams to suit their own requirements.  That’s just a little more steam in the Canadian engine that has become an international student recruiting freight train.

While hoping for the best and that sense will prevail, it is difficult not to think that the current Government is disjointed, capable of extreme views and likely to pander to populist thinking as an election nears.  It has shown little regard for the concerns of universities or the predicament they might face if international students decline and the institutions have willingly driven recruitment at a pace which has brought new stresses on the system.  None of it bodes well for the future and particularly not if the predictions of a long and deep recession come true.   

NOTES

* Headline and sub-headings from Time Warp by Richard O’Brien/Richard Hartley, which featured in the 1973 rock musical The Rocky Horror Show, its 1975 film adaptation The Rocky Horror Picture Show, and a 2016 TV production.  If you haven’t done it you really should.

**Gavin Williamson (to 15 September 2021), Nadhimm Zahawi (to 5 July, 2022), Michelle Donelan (to 7 July, 2022), James Cleverly (to 6 September, 2022), Kit Malthouse (current but the record might suggest not by the time you read this…)

Image by annca from Pixabay 

Look Into UAC, UEA, UK, USA, USF etc

Back in May the roundabout of changes at INTO University Partnerships (INTO) was in full motion.  My blog suggested a go to market strategy based around University Access Centers and an emerging sales structure reflecting the differing fortunes of Russell Group partners and other universities in the UK.  Particularly intriguing was the decline of the University of East Anglia joint venture (INTO UEA) and the rise of Queen’s University Belfast.

Regular readers will has seen that INTO UEA then failed to file its 2020/21 Annual Report by the due date but it is now possible to confirm the extent of the continuing decline in enrollments.  The UAC strategy was duly launched, a new partner in the US gives some further sense of a possible direction and some familiar faces have returned while the top team continues to change.  A summary is timely.

Changing UK Enrollment Dynamics

For some time now it has become clear that changes in international student enrollment for the UK is making for unusual turbulence and may not be good news for pathway operators.  This year’s UCAS data shows that overall international acceptances at undergraduate level are down to their lowest level since 2015 (excluding the pandemic affected 2020) due to continuing declines in EU students.  As importantly for pathway operators the shift to Indian postgraduates as a dominant, growing market brings very different challenges after years of reliance on China.

With the inclusion of the confirmed INTO UEA numbers the overall picture for INTO’s UK operations becomes clear.  While the Russell Group aligned operations had a steeper year on year fall in the most recent, pandemic affected, year the longer-term trend was positive.  Non-Russell group operations appear to be struggling and in decline.

Note: Wholly owned subsidiary INTO Manchester is primarily aligned with the University of Manchester and is included in the Russell Group enrollments.  INTO World Education Centre is a “choice” option and included in the Non-Russell Group enrollments.

The new figures also show that INTO UEA, the first joint venture opened, saw its enrollments fall below those of INTO Queen’s for the first time.  The recently posted Annual Report confirms that this decline came with an operating loss of £4.66m.  Note 18 of the Report indicates that fees charged by INTO and UEA to the joint venture have also been “renegotiated” to “reduce the LLP’s cost base.”

The joint-venture’s problems have had an impact on UEA’s overall international student enrollment and a significant decline in international fee income.  For now, the partnership continues but it will be worth keeping a close eye on it over the coming year.  The direction of travel and hopes for recovery seem clear from the Annual Report with talk of “the expansion of year one pathways and Integrated Degrees” as the focus for the future. 

Meanwhile, Back in the USA

INTO’s declining joint venture portfolio in the US has been explored at length and the current court case with the University of South Florida will play out over time.  Court documents show that an “Emergency Motion for a Temporary Injunction to maintain the status quo” on 31 August was declined which is presumably what led to the joint venture being removed as a recruitment option.  Filings indicate the next steps are that “INTO USF LP and INTO USF, Inc. shall file their Amended Complaint on or before September 20, 2022, and USF Financing Corporation and The Board of Trustees of the University of South Florida shall respond to the Amended Complaint within twenty (20) days thereafter.”

Meanwhile, the seemingly inevitable drive for direct recruitment partners may be coming with the announcement of an agreement to recruit postgraduate students for University of Massachusetts, Amherst from Fall 2023.  What is difficult to understand about INTO’s recruitment approach is that their student facing INTO Study website currently only features two direct recruitment partners (Colorado State University and Arizona State University) while the corporate site features nine US “recruitment partnerships”.  Shorelight’s site seems far more in keeping with the smooth approach that has been increasingly popularized by the aggregators and demonstrates how far INTO has to go if the intention is to have a significant direct recruitment network of partners in the US.

If the Face Fits

INTO’s web site constraints may also mean that updating new appointments and departures is not a priority but some of the comings and goings are interesting. 

Particularly relevant to the next stage of US development may be the return of ex-North America MD/CEO David Stremba as Senior Vice President, Business Development.  He was pivotal to the early growth of INTO in the US and has spent some time with both Shorelight and Navitas in recent years, so should have a good sense of the competitor landscape.  The US structure is also developing with long-term player Yasmin Sefer becoming Senior VP, Partnerships (Private) alongside the Senior VP, Partnerships (Public), Steven Richman.

The INTO corporate website also doesn’t reflect the recent departure of a Group COO and US Executive VP or a strongly rumoured, significant change at senior finance level.  All that aside, INTO seems to have decided the team and structure that it thinks can move it forward and there appear to be an ample number of “senior” titles for a business with a reported adjusted turnover of £119.3m in 2021.   Time for action.

Image by Peggy und Marco Lachmann-Anke from Pixabay 

INTO Court as Joint Venture Sours

There are signs that INTO University Partnerships’ (INTO) relationship with the University of South Florida may be ending after a recent Court Evidentiary Hearing1 on 19 August 2022.  While no public record of a judgement has appeared, rumors suggest there are communications in circulation advising that enrollment to INTO University of South Florida (INTO USF) will cease.  If any authoritative source can provide an alternative explanation or clarification, I will be happy to correct any misunderstandings.

It is appropriate to note that both INTO and the University of South Florida still feature INTO University of South Florida on their websites at the time of writing (27 August). The INTO Study site for students also offers the opportunity to apply for courses at the university. This may be the result of a time lag or the possibility of further discussion and this blog is written in good faith to explore the background to the Court case and the joint venture’s history.

The underlying case for a university going to court to end a joint-venture pathway that was once among the most successful in the world deserves attention.  Publicly available court filings outline the case2 and material on the INTO Corporate and University of South Florida websites is used to summarize the history and other background about the joint venture relationship.  The source of further commentary is referenced through hyperlinks.  

Summary of the Case

A Court filing3 from USF Financing Corporation (USFFC) to the Thirteenth Judicial Court in and for the state of Florida Civil Division dated 15 July 2022 seeks a “declaratory judgment that the 2010 stockholders Agreement between USF FC, the Company4, and the INTO Defendants is terminated as of April 21, 2022.” The grounds are that the joint venture is “insolvent under both a balance sheet basis and inability to pay debts as they become due, and (b) has demonstrated a material adverse financial position where it could not perform all or a substantial part of its obligations..”.  The particular difficulties of pathway programs in the United States have been widely explored and the filing incorporates direct reference to my blog of February 2022 regarding the growing level of indebtedness of INTO’s US ventures.

With an eye on its responsibilities for “stewardship of public resources” the University of South Florida terminated the program in April 2022 and “initiated the process for the teach-out of the programs’ enrolled international students….”  The filing asserts that “The INTO defendants refuse to acknowledge the Stockholders Agreement termination and refuse to participate in the teach-out or develop the Plan to dissolve and wind-up the Company.”  There are a number of points made around the fiduciary duty of the three INTO appointed Directors of INTO USF Inc, to creditors and shareholders “once a company is insolvent” with a memo, the accompanying Exhibit G of the filing, asserting that “the INTO appointed directors have a conflict of interest.”

INTO University of South Florida

INTO partnered with the University of South Florida in 2010 and the case study on the INTO website asserts “extraordinary” enrollment and economic impacts.  The accompanying graph (reproduced below) suggests that even if this was true up until 2016/17 the ensuing years have seen a significant decline in enrollment to the pathway.  Enrollments look to have peaked at around 800 but have subsequently fallen by around 100 a year to stand at c300 (this would be supported by the USF Fact Books showing non-degree seeking international students declining by a similar amount).

Source: INTO Global.com

The Court filing includes INTO USF, Inc’s Financial Statement to June 30, 2021 (Exhibit E) showing a net loss of $3.276m that year and $206,000 the year before.  This is supported by the USFFC’s Financial Statements to 30 June 2021 which comment on “approximately $3.3 million of net loss incurred by INTO USF during the year ended June 30, 2021.”  USFFC’s share of INTO USF’s “net accumulated (deficit)” was shown as $1.794m.

As noted in the February 2022 blog “China Crisis for US Pathways”, since 2018 when INTO Illinois State University opened, “total level of indebtedness across all US operations has nearly doubled from £18m to £35m”.  This figure included the debts at institutions where joint ventures have now closed – Washington State University, Marshall University and Colorado State University.  The blog also reflects that INTO has become the 100% owner of what was previously a joint venture at St Louis University.

One feature of both INTO USF (the second INTO partnership in the US) and INTO Oregon State University (the first) is that they are listed in INTO’s Annual Report as Inc. and are C-corporations.  Informed opinion suggests that closely held corporations (which these appear to be) “have been held to higher fiduciary duty standards” and this may be reflected in the “conflict of interest” comment.  Later US joint ventures are listed as LLC’s where, “By agreement, parties can alter certain duties to expand, restrict, or eliminate fiduciary duties owing to either the LLC or the other members and managers”, which suggests there may have been advice leading INTO to pursue alternative structures.5

Summary

It is worth waiting to see any Court judgement and whether there is an appeal process but the filing and other financial statements seem definitive in outlining the decline of the joint-venture’s financial situation.  If the joint venture is closed it would leave INTO with six joint ventures in the US, as well as the fully owned St Louis University operation and the “comprehensive partnership” with Hofstra (which is not listed in INTO’s annual reports as having joint ownership). 

As well as the closures in the US there have been several INTO joint ventures shut down in the UK in recent years.  In addition, INTO has taken a controlling interest in the joint venture with Newcastle University and the financial arrangements at the joint venture with City University have changed.  As noted in a recent blog the yearly financial reporting for INTO University of East Anglia is shown at Companies House as overdue, for a joint venture under significant financial pressure.

On top of all that there are rumors of imminent changes at the top in the INTO Finance team and the return of a familiar face to the INTO North America team but that is for another day.

Notes

  1. Case number: 22-CA-006726 before Judge D.D. Farfante
  2. I am unaware of any written response by INTO University Partnerships to the case filed
  3. Filing#153460265 Efiled 07/15/2022 07:45:26 PM
  4. “the Company” is defined as INTO USF Inc which is the C-Corporation established in 2010 with stockholders USFFC and INTO USA LLC.  Its board has three nominees from INTO and three from USFFC.
  5. The purpose of this paragraph is to provide further information which may be relevant and the quoted elements comes from the source indicated.  There is no intention to give legal advice or guidance and readers are advised to seek appropriate counsel on company structures.

Image by Venita Oberholster from Pixabay 

UK International Undergraduates – a New Status Quo?

As university admissions colleagues in the UK wander off into the glow of a long Bank Holiday weekend (or perhaps not if you are still recruiting to fill seats) it’s worth updating an earlier blog on international fortunes in Clearing.  While Clearing will continue for another month the main action is in the opening week or so and the picture appears to have settled quite quickly.  Figures for acceptances are taken at Day 8 of Clearing (Friday 26 August) unless otherwise stated.

At the top level, the relative performance of EU applications/acceptances and those from other international markets means that total international acceptances are 12% of the total which is a percent up on 2021 but 2% down on 2020.  Newspaper stories expressing horror about one in five university places going to international students are far from the truth although there are, and have always been, universities with higher proportions.  It makes for a very dull graph but the balance may reflect a new status quo. 

European Union – Down Down Deeper and Down

Applications from Europe continue to decline and acceptance rates are down at 40.5% from 51.6% in 2020.  Fewer students, fewer good students and/or fewer students accepting offers are probably all in the mix.  It’s a potent brew with the only hope for the future being that the pace of decline has slowed year on year.

Perhaps most telling is that the decline is not only in the less economically well off EU countries such as Poland and Romania which drove so much growth in recent years.  Applications from Germany have fallen 43% since 2020 with acceptances down 54% and those from France are down 42% and 52% respectively.  The other European G7 economy is Italy where both applications and acceptances are down 53%.

Other International Applications Rocking All Over the World but Acceptance Trend is Patchy

It has been interesting to watch the Canadian visa system buckling under the weight of study applications and facing assertions of prejudice in decision making.  It seems likely that UK universities, in working hard to ensure that their visa record is not compromised, prevent the Home Office from facing such a stark situation.  Nonetheless, a situation where an increased pool of Chinese applicants is being accepted at a rate of 48.4% while those from Nigeria are at an historically low acceptance rate of 25.7% suggests something is not quite right.

Acceptance levels from India are also down on every year of the past decade and those from Pakistan well away from the peak in 2017.  While top line growth in applications may be a sign of popularity it should bring an obligation on any intermediaries – whether agents, pathways, aggregators or others – to be careful in those being put forward to university partners.  What is hidden even further in the undergrowth is the extent to which financially stretched institutions may be taking students who will struggle to last the course or secure the degree they are investing in.

Figures Can Mean Whatever You Want

Amid the triumphalism over achieving the Government’s international student target a decade early there was always a question about what happens next.  Performing well during a pandemic when most of the competition has closed its borders is a reasonable start but with the Australians roaring back and the US seeming less prone to self-inflicted injuries the UK may find headwinds developing.  The reality is that, counting European Union students, the UK is likely to recruit fewer international undergraduates in 2022 than in 2015 and that should not be seen as a success.

Notes

Just to confirm that the references to Status Quo songs in the sub-headings are intentional.   

Image by Arek Socha from Pixabay 

US International Enrollments See the Light But Pathway Struggle Continues

It’s always a delight when there is a shaft of light that gives an insight into important issues like international student enrollment.  George Mason University (GMU) has made available a day by day view of preliminary enrollments1 which offers a near real time picture of what is happening at the university and its pathway partnership with INTO University Partnerships (IUP),  INTO Mason.  It probably gives a reasonable indicator of how US institutions and their pathways are faring as the pandemic unwinds and follows data points in the early part of 2022 including:

  • IEE Spring 2022 Snapshot where 65% of 559 institutions responding reported “an increase in their international student applications for the 2022/23 academic year”
  • a Wall Street Journal report showing the number of F-1 visas issued to Chinese students  dropped in the first six months of 2022 to 31,055 compared to 64,261 issued in the first six months of 2019
  • The Siasat Daily and others report that between January and May 2022 US consulates issued nearly 15,000 “F1 or student visas” to students in India – triple the number issued in 2022

Visa delays are still an issue but things are moving.  The question is how much and what are the implications.  GMU’s contemporaneous data gives some directions of travel.  There is still some time to go before official census data and the data does not provide country by country insights but the transparency is welcome.

Source data for the graphs below is on the GMU Office of Institutional Effectiveness and Planning website.  The graphs combines information on preliminary enrollment data for 2022 with year-by-year data from the normal census point in October of previous years.    

INTO Mason Pathway Struggles to Recover

Recruitment to INTO Mason has been struggling for several years and had dropped, before the pandemic, by 35% from 371 in 2017 to 241 in 2019.  Numbers enrolled halved during the two years impacted by the pandemic.  In a year where recovery might be anticipated the enrollments of 117 for Fall 2022 remain below those Fall 2020, less than half of 2019 and even further down on 2018.2

While the GMU data does not allow an analyse of enrollments by country it seems plausible to believe that declines in students from China contributed significantly to performance pre-pandemic and there is little sign of recovery.  It also seems likely that any growth in students coming to the US is largely made up of graduates who do not require pathway courses.  This would be consistent with previous suggestions that the changing market dynamics are likely to undermine the core pathway business model.

Note: Filter used was Fall enrollments, INTO Mason, US campuses, all students (Preliminary data for 2022 taken at 22 August, 2022 – shown as First day of classes)

Accelerated Growth in Direct Graduate Enrollment at GMU

Direct enrollment to GMU has taken a significantly different course.  From 2021 to the preliminary numbers in 2022, graduate enrollment has surged by 46% from 1641 to 2397.  While UG enrollment is still below 2019 the graduate growth has boosted overall enrollment of non-resident aliens to a six-year high of 3844.

This suggests that the opportunity to recruit has come in countries, such as India, where the majority of students are seeking a graduate course.  GMU presents the overall enrollment data in a way which includes INTO Mason numbers but it is clear from the graph above that the pathway cannot be responsible for the growth in recruitment.  There is no indication of the extent, if any, to which IUP’s direct recruitment efforts for GMU have supported this growth.   

Note: Filter used was Fall enrollments, ALL GMU US Campuses, non-resident alien. (Preliminary data for 2022 taken at 22 August, 2022 – shown as First day of classes)

Pandemic Escalates Debt Levels at Joint Venture

Each year, in its published annual report, IUP records the level of debt it is owed by its joint ventures.  In a single year near peak enrollment the INTO Mason joint venture did not owe anything but since then the level of debt has escalated and the first two years of the pandemic saw a significant growth in indebtedness.  A previous blog has shown the growing level of indebtedness of all of IUP’s US joint ventures (including the three that have closed in recent years).

Source: INTO University Partnership Annual Reports

A recent report from an IUP university partner in the UK suggested that the decline in its joint venture with IUP was so significant that there “will be no distribution in respect of 2020/21 nor for the next three years whilst the joint venture recovers”.  At INTO Mason the level of indebtedness appears to have grown by £1.5m a year in each of the pandemic years and there is little to suggest that INTO Mason’s enrollments this year will grow above those in 2020.  IUP has they have the opportunity to offset any problems in pathway performance with direct recruitment revenue streams but the scale of the challenge seems clear.    

No Miraculous Recovery

As noted in a previous blog, the changing international student recruitment picture is likely to fundamentally change the way that pathway operators develop sustainable revenue streams.  In the US, Shorelight has acted quickly to develop a direct recruitment partners and has significantly outstripped IUP in this regard.  With recovery in the traditional core market of Chinese undergraduates looking sluggish and increasingly unlikely to ever reach the heights of the growth years the strategic challenge is very real for all concerned.

There has been a longer-term malaise around IUP with recent changes at Board level and a developing “boots on the ground” strategy suggesting a shake-up is underway.  It comes off the back of a diminishing presence in both the US and UK which may be difficult to recover.  The route forward remains fraught with pitfalls and uncertainty.

The direction of travel at GMU reflects the more general emerging picture for the US. Graduate enrollments look strong but as the recent IDP annual report showed interest from China looks relatively weak. As suggested in my recent blogs, the new enrollment battleground is India and with Australia back in the game and hungry it’s going to be an interesting year.

Notes

  1. The Preliminary Daily Enrollment Reports and Dashboards carry data from 19 April 2022 to 25 August 2022 (as at 25 August).  Other Enrollments Reports carry an historical record taken at a Census date in October each year.
  2. INTO Mason accepts students at a number of intake points in the year but Fall enrollment is generally the largest intake and is the sole point of reference for this blog.

Image by Joe from Pixabay 

Soft Power or Hard Facts?

NOTE: This blog was updated on 24 August to include a table and brief commentary on additional countries, specifically those in the G20, and their Government leaders. The update reinforces the key points that almost none of the leaders of the most economically powerful countries in the world studied in a higher education institution outside their own country.

The recent HEPI blog on soft power reminded me that it is easy to get stuck in a world view and to simply repeat things without questioning their validity.  It’s even worse when this results in a league table and some cheap headlines which people never interrogate for underlying validity or worth.  The HEPI chart also has some oddities, such as listing some monarchs who have extremely limited executive powers and often stand apart from political, economic or social decision making.

While some may be comforted to see the UK coming second on the HEPI measure with 55 “world leaders educated in countries other than their own” there is a need for more rigour at a point when Global Britain is the mantra/lifebelt at a time of economic gloom.  When the UK Prime Minister goes to meetings with, say, the G7 are they really amongst friends with a common and lived sense of the value of a UK higher education?  The facts suggest not.

More troubling might be that of the top 15 countries by GDP in 2022 suggests that only two country leaders have any meaningful experience of higher education outside their own country.  Three appear to have ended their studies at undergraduate/military academy level.  This is a snapshot of the world leadership in August 2022 but I suspect that the notion of a well-travelled, multi-country education is relatively rare amongst the world’s most powerful political leadership.

In a world where nationalist politics appears to have taken an increasing grip this may be a passing phase and it would be reasonable to argue that this is a small section of the global political elite.  However, some would argue that economic realities shape most political decisions and so factors shaping the leadership of the countries with economic power is worth considering.  It is always best to make an effort to understand who you are dealing with.    

Table 1: Education of Political Leaders in Top 15 Countries by GDP  

CountryNameTitleUndergradPostgrad
United StatesJoe BidenPresidentUSUS
ChinaXi JinpingPresidentChinaChina
JapanFumio KishidaPrime MinisterJapanJapan
GermanyOlaf SchulzChancellorGermanyGermany
United KingdomBoris JohnsonPrime MinisterUKUK
IndiaNarendra ModiPrime MinisterIndiaIndia*
FranceEmmanuel MacronPresidentFranceFrance
ItalyMario DraghiPrime MinisterItalyUSA
CanadaJustin TrudeauPrime MinisterCanada 
South KoreaYoon Suk-yeolPresidentS KoreaS Korea
RussiaVladimir PutinPresidentRussiaRussia
BrazilJair BolsonaroPresidentBrazil 
AustraliaAnthony AlabanesePrime MinisterAustralia 
SpainPedro SanchezPrime MinisterSpainBelgium
IndonesiaJoko WidodoPresidentIndonesia 
*contested

Adding the five additional countries that make up the G20 does not make any difference to the overall findings. The meeting in Bali in November 2022 will feature heads of government that have enjoyed almost no cross-cultural influences at higher education level. If one strength of universities is intended to be that they offer a pathway for different cultures and influences to gel and gain understanding it is a route that appears to be firmly closed for those who make it to the top of country politics.

Table 2: Leadership of Additional Countries in the G20

Notes:

  1. Information on the senior figure in the structure of a country’s “executive” leadership is taken from public sources but it is acknowledged that power structures are more complex and authority seldom wholly resides in an individual.
  2. Information on the academic qualifications is taken from public sources and has erred on the side of benevolence.  One qualification is flagged as being publicly disputed.  Where there is no entry for a higher degree level the author has found no evidence of a qualification at that level.  Any amendments are gratefully received and will be corrected.
  3. It is recognized that public profiles are often manipulated so any other authoritative corrections are also welcome.

Image by Clker-Free-Vector-Images from Pixabay 

Bread, Circuses and Clearing

Note: A data transposition error meant that a small number of Day 4 details in this blog required amendment. Deleted text is shown with a strikethrough. The changes are marginal and do not change the conclusions drawn. Amendments were made on 23 August.

Education and political commentators in the UK must salivate as they mark the A-level results date in their diary.  It’s the gift that keeps on giving as thrilled and distraught students weep real tears of joy or despair at three grade letters which will determine their immediate future.  The system places all the power in the hands of the universities as they pick and choose who to admit from the 30% or more whose predicted grades were inflated.

With that grumble about a system which is weighted heavily against students out of the way it’s time to get down to making some observations about what clearing has told us so far about international students.  It’s still early in the process and there is time for things to change but the first few days are usually telling.  The figures on day one of clearing (UCAS call it JCQ Results Day) and little change by day 4 give a sense of how the world is turning. 

The focus here is international students and that brings an immediate acknowledgement that undergraduate study is probably not where the real action lies.  However, the yearly grind of replacing PGT students is a remorseless treadmill and every university business manager should be hungry for the stability of a three year fee-paying student.  Pathway operators have also historically built their business around students who want to be undergraduates and need to improve their language skills before entering a full degree.

No Safe European Home

The near catastrophic decline in European undergraduate enrollments continues but it looks worse than the headline numbers.  Since 2019 the number of applications has fallen 54% (27,150) but on day one the number of acceptances was down 67% over the same timescale.  The slow growth in the number of acceptances suggests that there is simply not the quality of student in the pool or that they hoped to be able to slip into a highly ranked university and are not interested in trading down.

Those touting the notion that it was not financially an issue if European numbers fell steeply because they would be paying more in fees should re-evaluate their position.  In 2019 the 26,200 European students accepted on day one were worth £727m over three years at £9,250 a year.  In 2022 the 8,620 accepted on day one are worth £414m over three years at an average of, say, £16,000 a year.

Of course, some higher ranked universities will be able to charge more but it would need an average yearly undergraduate fee of £28,000 to be able to make up the difference.  It is difficult to see that this is realistic, so a net loss seems baked into the situation.  The number of acceptances is also on a downward trend year on year so getting Brexit done probably has long term consequences for higher education enrollments.

The impact on pathway operators may also have been something of a blow because many European students, particularly from less economically strong countries, needed language support.  This may be one factor behind the growing popularity of low-cost countries in attracting international students within Europe.

China In Your Hand

UK university appetite for students from China remains undimmed and it would be reasonable to lay a small bet that the Russell Group is continuing to draw in as many as possible.  What is interesting about this year is the sharp hike in the percentage of Chinese applicants who were accepted as of day one. The 42% accepted was still at that level had risen to 44.6% on day 4 of Clearing and is significantly higher than anything in the past decade (highest previous was 37.9 42.1% acceptances on day 4).

A couple of thoughts on the reasons come to mind.  It is possible that there has been a surge of quality candidates because the number of Chinese students going to the US appears to be continuing to falter.  It is also possible that pathways in the UK with international year one options are growing their degree offerings and able to provide a persuasive option to candidates at 5.5 IELTS. HESA data shows, for example, that Study Group had 1,345 Chinese undergraduate students in 2020/21.  

As of day 4 of clearing there will be some 70.9% (c5,800 5,940) more Chinese undergraduates starting UG courses in the UK in 2022 than in 2019.  

Career Opportunities

Much has been made of the ways the introduction of post-study work visas have changed the fortunes of UK universities enrolling international students.  Two key countries with rapidly growing applications were India and Nigeria.  While the bulk of candidates will have been in PGT applications both countries have seen strong UG application growth since 2019 of 217% and 91% respectively. 

There may have been high hopes pinned on these turning into enrollments but the acceptances picture tells a quite different story.  Nigeria languished at an acceptance rate of 22.7% on day one – an all time low for the past decade.  At an acceptance rate of 34.1% Indian students were marginally better than last year but at a lower level than anything else since 2013.

It would be reasonable to say that the number of accepted Nigerian students on day one has risen 106.9% since 2019.  But an extra 3,620 applicants had only yielded 620 acceptances (17%) at that point and on the same basis an extra 5,670 Indian applications brought 1,620 students (28.6%).  This might suggest why some university admissions colleagues are concerned at the propensity of aggregator platforms to attract sub-optimal candidates when, by contrast, a growth of 11,640 Chinese applicants returned 5,690 students (48.9%).

Another market touted for growth now and in the future is Pakistan, where an additional 370 applicants since 2019 saw a decline of 20 students accepted as of day one.  On a longer time scale, 2017 saw 2000 applicants from Pakistan with a day one acceptance of 540 while 2022 saw 2660 applicants with a day one acceptance of…..540.  The search for new markets and the ease of multiple application through technology may make this a recurring trend and particularly so as agents and applicants look more widely for countries with the most benevolent post-study work options.   

Minding Your P and Us

As noted, the UG trends are only part of the story and most of the excitement and expectation is in the PGT market.  If the growth in applications from India and Nigeria has been as significant as suggested by study visa data there will have been a tremendous burden on university admissions offices.  The UG picture may suggest that the vagaries of multiple applications, quality of candidates and Home Office scrutiny will result in significant inefficiency in the system for the foreseeable future.

Image by Arek Socha from Pixabay     

INTO THE OUT-DOOR?

Like most fledgling businesses, INTO University Partnerships (INTO) had some difficult moments in its early years. In March 2008,  Austin Mitchell MP raised the matter in a Parliamentary question why it had not filed financial records with Companies House and founder Andrew Colin said that the delay in submitting accounts was a “simple mistake.”  It’s not the sort of mistake you expect a £119m revenue company to be making 14 years later, so the apparent failure to file accounts on time for the joint venture with the University of East Anglia (INTO UEA llp) seems a reasonable moment for considering other possible reasons.

Companies House confirmed on 4 August that, “Upon checking the company record I can confirm that the LLP’s accounts for the period ending 31/07/2021 have not yet been received for filing at Companies House.”  This blog speculates without knowing the detail behind the late filing and it may turn out to be simply a matter of administrative failure.  Time will tell and I would be happy to provide an update if anyone with appropriate authority from the company or university contacts me with a plausible explanation.

At one end of the spectrum the failure may simply be down to bad planning and Companies House list fines starting at £150 for being a month late to £1500 for being six months over the filing deadline.  They do go on to say that “Not filing your confirmation statements, annual returns or accounts is a criminal offence – and directors or LLP designated members could be personally fined in the criminal courts.”  One would guess that it’s unlikely to get that far.

The delay does, however, raise the possibility that INTO and the University of East Anglia are in discussions about the future of the joint venture and are delaying the filing until a direction is clear.  It would require someone with appropriate accounting/auditing qualifications (which I don’t have) to fully explain the complexities of what needs to be declared in terms of timing (from balance sheet date to authorization for issue) and whether events are adjusting or non-adjusting.  Change would not, however, be unprecedented because recent history has seen INTO become 51% owners and take “significant control” of INTO Newcastle University LLP and new profit/loss sharing arrangements at INTO City LLP were noted in the 2020 accounts.

Slip Sliding Away

A previous blog noted the trajectory of INTO UEA’s student enrollments and the slide in the university’s international tuition fee revenue.  The parlous state of affairs at the joint venture was confirmed with the statement that there “will be no distribution in respect of 2020/21 nor for the next three years whilst the joint venture recovers and builds up surpluses for distribution.”  All that alongside a £7m loan guaranteed equally by both partners might be drivers of a discussion about the future.

The University’s Council meeting in October 2021 was advised by the Vice Chancellor that at that point it was falling short of recruitment targets by c1,000 students.  This might suggest that international enrollments were also not picking up and the feed through from the joint venture was not as hoped.  It all seems good fodder for the Council member who requested at the Council meeting the following month an executive summary of “what was keeping the VC awake at night.”

One other thing that might be on that list for both the University and the joint venture is that both look to be poorly positioned to seize the opportunities offered by India as the major growth market for the UK.  According to HESA data, UEA’s intake from India rose from 40 to 175 between 2016/17 and 2020/21 in a period when total Indian students in the UK rose from 16,900 to 84,555.  It is a period when UEA’s enrollment of students from China fell from 1,320 to 810.        

Winds of Change

The trail of INTO’s long term, joint venture model has been patchy and it has, arguably, not proved to be as responsive to university needs as the more traditional stand-alone pathway model.  In the UK five operational joint ventures have closed – INTO Glasgow Caledonian University (2020), INTO St Georges University (2017), INTO University of Gloucestershire (2019), INTO UEA London (2014), and INTO Newcastle London (2020).  In the US there have been closures at INTO Marshall (2019), INTO Colorado State University (2021) and INTO Washington State University (2021) as well as INTO St Louis becoming fully owned by INTO in 2021.

A recent blog noted the shift in Shorelight’s range of university relationships from joint-venture pathways oriented to direct recruitment.  INTO has not been as dynamic in making that move but the shifting sands and complexities are captured in the grid below.  This presumes that the University of East Anglia remains a joint venture pathway operation with the university.

 Joint Venture Pathway with UniversityPathways (wholly or majority owned)Direct Recruitment OnlyDirect Admit Affiliates*
US8128
UK5310
Australia1000

*Described as “American universities that offer more choices to international students who seek direct admission.”

The turbulence in international student recruitment is being felt throughout the sector and pathway operations are particularly sensitive to changes impacting the relatively small number of student that require extensive language support alongside academic study skills.  There are many examples of changing course portfolios, including International Year One, which reflect creative responses to new demands and developing visa scenarios to broaden the market for pathways.  It may be that the continuing need for flexibility brings an end to the long-term, deeply embedded, joint-venture vision that was considered by some to be an industry game-changer. 

Image by Clker-Free-Vector-Images from Pixabay 

Love Island UK or Total Wipeout for International Students

The chaos around the resignation of the UK Prime Minister saw the country have three Secretary of State for Education in as many days.  While there is something deliciously ironical about someone called Cleverly holding the ball when the music stops (sic) it was less edifying to see the Under-Secretary for Education demoted to Minister of Skills, Further and Higher Education for giving the middle finger to the gathered press pack.  May be the first time that higher actually means lower but as someone recently said, “them’s the breaks.”

It leaves higher education in the hands of James Cleverly who might find himself replaced under a new Prime Minister in September.  He does not appear to have any previous experience of an education portfolio.  He is joined by Andrea Jenkyns, who threw the hand gesture, because “I’m only human” but who also appears to have no links with education administration.

Given their inexperience they may be amenable to suggestion from outside sources and they will certainly face commercial interests who have established an inside track to Government and a powerful lobbying position.  The voices they listen to could determine whether the UK becomes a beacon for international students or a place where hopes are crushed by economic and political considerations.  It’s unclear who will ensure students don’t become filling in a sandwich between reduced public spending and private ambition to monetize global mobility.    

When Love Comes to Town

Past experience would suggest that the voice of Lord Jo Johnson, who is usually heralded as “former universities Minister” or Senior Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School rather than his more commercial position as Chairman of ApplyBoard International, will be among the loudest. If his views carry weight there are several indicators as to the direction of travel for international students coming to the UK. His demands in mid-2020, shortly after taking the ApplyBoard post, were a four-year post-study work visa, “a strategic push to rebalance student flows by doubling those from India”, and “cutting back the time-consuming and offputting red tape affecting overseas students.”

He is joined on ApplyBoard’s UK Advisory Board by the UK’s International Education Champion, Professor Sir Steve Smith, the Director of the Higher Education Policy Institute, Nick Hillman and HEPI Trustee, Mary Curnock-Cook.  With all that industry insight and connection the outcomes could help the Board achieve its stated aim to “guide and support ApplyBoard’s expansion within the United Kingdom.” It certainly begins to feel as if some other stars may be aligning.

UK universities have already been revelling in a benign recruitment environment since the introduction of a more relaxed post-study work regime in 2021.  It helped reach the Government’s ludicrously low target of 600,000 international students a decade early but for some that is not enough.  Vivienne Stern, the current director of Universities UK International and soon to be chief executive of Universities UK, has said universities want a review to ensure the UK had a “competitive post-study work offer” and there are other interesting synergies emerging.

Stern, a colleague of Smith’s on the UK Government’s Education Sector Advisory Group, has also started to bang the drum about the risks for universities of any deterioration of relationships with China.    Added to that is the voice of Nick Hillman who said, of growing Chinese numbers, “…it does put our universities at serious risk of shifting geopolitics.” These assertions broadly mirror Johnson’s March 2021 statements about “poorly understood” risks of increasingly close collaboration between UK universities and China and his November 2021 suggestion that the financial risks were such that the government should consider making English universities over-reliant on Chinese student fees take out insurance policies.

Some might argue that the echo chamber of views warning about potential catastrophe are overstated.  It seems entirely possible recruitment from China will grow post-pandemic because it is driven by strong country-based agents and local connections where the growth of aggregator and remote technology led approaches has been more of a struggle than in markets such as India.  As interesting is whether the UK can go head to head with Canada for the Indian market if it means underpinning its strategy with longer-term post study visas and the Holy Grail of simple routes to citizenship, which some research suggests may be the aim of 75% of Indian students.       

Another thing to watch out for might be the way that the UK International Education Strategy’s aim of, “Enhancing….the student application process for international students”, is met.  In 2021, Johnson was promoting technology to verify incoming students’ documents, check English language skills and review their finances which sounded like a proposal to adopt a UK version of ApplyProof – a “standalone platform powered by ApplyBoard“.2  What might the odds be on a public-private partnership bringing this technology to the UK?

Total Eclipse of the Heart

On the other hand the post-pandemic world looks to be moving increasingly towards a relatively hard economic landing and there are reasons to be wary of the UK’s position.  One symbol is the, perhaps hyperbolic, sentiment that the British pound is taking on the characteristics of an ‘emerging market’ currency.  Already abandoned by European workers there is some evidence that agricultural workers from around the world will be in high demand but if you are a graduate with more interest in picking stocks than strawberries the post-study work environment in the UK could be a concern.

Information on international student post-study outcomes has been notoriously hard to come by and HESA has been roundly criticised for stepping back from Government demands for more and better quality data.  AGCAS has tried to step into the breach and offers the most recent insights which broadly tell us that one in three international students have not found employment of any kind.  The amount of effort needed to find a job is suggested by the finding that 42% of students employed applied for over 50 jobs.

Views on the Graduate Route suggest that graduates feel some employers have “poor knowledge of post-study work visas”, others “openly refused to accept applications from international graduates” and that the cost of the Route was a barrier.  On top of this Office for Students research suggests that “less than half of students at some English universities can expect to find graduate level jobs or further study shortly after graduation.”

Even more troubling are the recent revelations that student visas to UK universities may be providing cover for human trafficking.  If abuses can happen when a university is meant to be aware of the way the student is engaging with their course, this may be the tip of the iceberg of exploitation under post-study work visas.  As the number of students staying in country grows the potential for this to become a big issue seems clear.

While things may turn out right, a great deal will hinge on the economic prosperity of the UK.  As survivors of the global recession of 2007 to 2009 will recall there was significant growth in unemployment among young people.  It was one factor that may have contributed to the decision in 2011 to remove post study work rights for international students.

Announcing the decision in March 2011 then Home Secretary Theresa May said, “We had too many people coming here to work and not to study. We had too many foreign graduates staying on in the UK to work in unskilled jobs. And we had too many institutions selling immigration, not education.”  If the number of students deciding to stay and work goes up at a time when the UK is struggling with recession and unemployment it is difficult to see why a future Government would not make a similar decision.  Total wipeout of post-study work visas is only ever a political step away. 

NOTES

  1. Love Island is a popular but controversial reality TV show in the UK, involving strangers meeting up and being obliged to pair up or be ejected from the competition.  Total Wipeout ran from 2009-12 and involved competitors taking on an obstacle course and other challenges until the one who is fastest around the Wipeout Zone course wins.  Both have similarities with the challenges facing international students.    
  2. It is unclear to me what “standalone” means. ApplyBoard and ApplyProof share the same logo colorways, have headquarters in the same building, and the head of ApplyProof is a standing member of ApplyBoard’s information governance committee.  The Head of ApplyProof’s LinkedIn profile places the ApplyProof role under his ApplyBoard experience and its Director of Engineering’s profile suggests he also works for Apply Board.
  3. Colleagues of a certain age will recognize that the sub-headings are taken directly from 1980s songs by U2 (When Love Comes to Town) and Bonnie Tyler (Total Eclipse of the Heart). Guilty pleasures:)  

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay