For a news outlet that claims to have a mission to be “..the definitive source of data, insight and expertise on higher education worldwide” the Times Higher Education sometimes seems woefully short on understanding of the realities of international student recruitment. There is also an unhealthy focus on Russell Group universities which suggests more about the THE’s obsession with rankings, brands and research than any enlightened engagement with the broader sector. A recent example is its article “Overseas student recruitment windfall for leading UK universities” (January 18, 2022).
For those outside the THE paywall, the piece concentrates on some Russell Group universities seeing international student fee income rising significantly between 2020-21 and 2021-22. There is a suggestion that those in London and the south of England have done particularly well but that enrolments are “either flat or slightly down at some northern institutions, including…Liverpool, Newcastle and Sheffield.” As well as perpetuating the myth that the Russell Group are either all or the only leading universities in the UK this misses a much more interesting story about the way that changing international markets are altering the financial and recruitment dynamics of the sector.
What If becomes the Hot Thing2
As far back as January 2020 my blog predicted that “..the incoming surge of Indian students might bring a new dynamic to the market” and that “the return of post-study work visas has disrupted enrolment patterns and some lower-ranked universities may have the most cause to be grateful.” In March 2021 I presented data showing that, “..the distribution of Indian students by type of institution has proved to be significantly different to that of Chinese students” and gave an example as to why geographical location was not the driving factor. Then in January 2022, I reinforced the findings and made the point that “price points and graduate outcomes could become far more powerful signals than whether the THE, QS and AWUR algorithms choose to favour the rich, old and elitist.”
The impact on increases in student fee income is very clear. Year on year, percentage rises in international fees (excluding EU students) actually show that the Russell Group is underperforming many other universities. It is equally clear that location is not the main driver of performance.
The table below shows the 2018/19 to 2020/21 change in international enrollments from China and India across 8 Russell Group universities and 8 non-Russell Group universities (including low tariff institutions). This is shown alongside the year-on-year change in international fee income (excluding EU) from 2020-21 to 2021-22. Several non-Russell Group institutions have seen greater comparative financial growth by increasing student enrollments from India while those in the Russell Group remain reliant on China.
Table – % Change in Year on Year International Fee income 2020/21 and Change in Volume of Chinese and Indian Enrollments from 2018/19 to 2020/21
| % change in international (exc EU) fee income 2020-21 to 2021-22 | Change in number (and percentage) of Chinese students 2018/19-2020/21 | Change in number (and percentage) of Indian students 2018/19-2020/21 | |
| Southampton | 92.1 | 745 (27.5%) | 50 (27.8%) |
| Teesside | 85 | 45 (13.4%) | 1470 (358.5%) |
| Hertfordshire | 76.9 | -355 (-53.8%) | 3930 (397%) |
| Greenwich | 60.8 | -285 (-44.5%) | 1760 (239.5%) |
| Ulster | 55.8 | -85 (-47.2%) | 3270 (2725%) |
| Queen Mary | 47.4 | 600 (40.8%) | 150 (29.4%) |
| Kingston | 44.3 | 110 (24.2%) | 1635 (302.8%) |
| Exeter | 33 | 695 (50.7%) | 135 (28.7%) |
| Northumbria | 29.2 | 50 (10.1%) | 2215 (357.3%) |
| Leicester | 26.7 | -590 (-36.1%) | 1025 (683.3%) |
| Central Lancashire | 22 | -315 (-44.4%) | 2365 (375.4%) |
| Warwick | 21 | 730 (23.4%) | 80 (11.2%) |
| Imperial | 18.5 | 1115 (40.3%) | 35 (14.3%) |
| Manchester | 16.5 | 3000 (53.5%) | 85 (16.2%) |
| UCL | 16 | 4040 (64.7%) | 55 (13.6%) |
| Sheffield | 0.6 | 1550 (32%) | 545 (187.9%) |
| Liverpool | -14.2 | -1300 (-23.4%) | 240 (200%) |
Notes:
- Non-Russell Group institutions are in bold
- Financial information is taken from 2021-22 Financial Statements
- Student enrollment data is taken from HESA
Newcastle University is not shown because it does not appear to separate EU and other international student fee income in its financial statements. However, the enrollment numbers comparison between it and the University of Northumbria (which is less than a mile away) demonstrates that blanket assertions about trouble up north are misguided. Northumbria’s international enrollments have outpaced Newcastle’s significantly over the past three years with growth from India providing the bulk of the additional numbers. It is notable that, according to HESA, Newcastle University had fewer Indian students in 2020/21 than in 2018/19.
Source: HESA (this data includes EU students. In 2020/21 Newcastle had 1,360 and Northumbria 1,450 from the EU)
The substantial gaps in performance on recruitment of students from India does raise a number of tantalising questions about the international student strategy and/or capability of Russell Group universities. Questions might include:
- do they ignore academically qualified students from India;
- do academically qualified students from India reject Russell Group institutions because of issues such as cost of tuition and accommodation;
- are the number of academically qualified students from India so limited that Russell Group institutions struggle to grow numbers;
- do Russell Group universities have some form of inherent bias against students from India.
Someone with a sharp eye to the sensibilities of the Home Secretary and the current political mood music might also wonder if the propensity of lower ranked, less costly and lower tariff universities to attract students from India will be seen as evidence that they are focused more on fee income than the “brightest and the best.”
Around the World in a Day3
The time lag in HESA figures means we will have to wait for some insights into whether Russell Group universities significantly changed their approach towards India in time for enrollments in 2021/22. Without such a switch some would seem to be relying on a resurgence of students from China to maintain numbers and financial performance. It seems likely, however, that their fee structure and overall costs might make it difficult to switch attention to price-conscious source markets.
While watching this space to see how things develop, one would hope that the THE starts to reflect that there is a world outside WC1, London, the south of England and the league tables. For many students, issues like cost, employability, post study work and routes to immigration are at least as important in decision making as the SDGs, rankings and research capability. With their fingers and a computer they can walk around the world in a day to assess their options and are capable of great flexibility in changing country, institution and course of study if it suits their needs.
Notes
Headline and sub-headings courtesy of the much-missed Prince.
- Sign o’ the Times was the title track of a studio double album released in 1987. One of my guilty pleasures is the Starfish and Coffee track which Prince co-wrote with his then-girlfriend Susannah Melvoin. Cynthia Rose is a real person and apparently what she really told her teacher she had in her lunch box was “starfish and pee pee”.
- What If is a cover version of a song written by Nichole Nordeman that appeared on her album Brave in 2005. Prince recorded his version with 3rdEyeGirl in 2013. Hot Thing appears on the Sign o’ the Times album and was recorded in 1986.
- Around the World In a Day was the title track from the seventh studio album from Prince which featured the memorable Raspberry Beret that provided the name for UK band the Lightning Seeds through a misheard lyric. Ian Broudie, who formed the band, thought the line “thunder drowns out what the lightning sees” was “thunder drowns out the lightning seeds.”
Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay