India Stealing a March on China for UK Universities

Back in March 2021 my blog considered the way that shifts in recruitment volumes between India and China could have a significant impact for higher education institutions.  The release of the latest HESA statistics by UK institution have borne out the hypothesis.  Building on another theme they also suggest that the value of league tables as a recruitment aid will rapidly diminish as students from strengthening recruitment markets ignore UniVanity rankings to pursue value and employment opportunities.

Between 2019/20 and 2020/21 the total number of students from India recorded by HESA was 84,555, an increase of 29,090 year on year. 54% of the increase (15,616) went to just 13 universities.  Those ‘full offering’ universities growing by over 1,000 year on year to 2020/21 were all in the top ten for growth from 2018/19 to 2019/21.  BPP University’s growth was noted last year and is included in the table below to emphasise the importance of institutions who position themselves as “building careers through education”.

	Volume growth 2019/20 to 2020/21	Volume growth 2018/19 to 2019/20
University of Hertfordshire	2355	1575
Ulster University	2040	1230
University of East London	1505	1710
BPP University	1485	1640
The University of Central Lancashire	1185	1180
Coventry University	1030	810

A couple of interesting features in the year-on-year comparisons is that the biggest year on year loser of students from India at -455 is De Montfort University (DMU) while Leicester University, in the same city, grew by 780.  This could be a policy-led decision by De Montfort under its relatively new leadership or it might be that private recruitment partner Navitas has been able to help Leicester dominate over DMU’s pathway provider Oxford International Education Group.  In another snippet of pathway related detail Study Group registered a loss of 595 students year on year from China while growing numbers from India by 230.

As in the previous years Russell Group universities made very little headway in increasing their numbers from India with the University of Glasgow’s +200 looking to be top of the pile.  But unlike the previous year numbers from China have fallen away significantly for some.  The table below shows the top ten for volume growth in the previous year compared to the latest HESA figures.

	Volume growth 2019/20 to 2020/21	Volume growth 2018/19 to 2019/20
Edinburgh	995	1410
Leeds	-335	1235
Southampton	-445	1190
Sheffield	400	1150
UCL	2975	1065
Manchester	2115	885
Birmingham	-430	860
Newcastle	-385	855
Kings College	1460	725
Nottingham	-750	725

This reinforces the potential for changes in recruitment markets making significant differences to the potential of individual universities to invest for the future.   A stark example of this might be Nottingham where the Russell Group University of Nottingham (UN) lost 750 students from China and had 75 fewer from India – a net loss of 825.  Nottingham Trent University (NTU) saw numbers from China decline by 95 but those from India up by 140.

At one level this could be an interesting test for private pathway partner Kaplan who service both universities.  But more fundamentally level its worth reflecting that NU’s tuition fee for a Management PGT degree is £24,500 compared to NTU’s £18,000.  As a value proposition it may be that the extra 36% on the price is simply not justifiable to a student who is self-funding.  It is also reasonable to consider that UN’s decline in Chinese enrollments may be a feature of individuals choosing not to transfer from the campus in China during COVID and may right itself in time.          

It seems difficult to argue that the driving force of the India market is not going to have a growing impact on the UK higher education scene.  Universities that have long relied on their historical status and ranking to persuade wealthy, brand conscious students to enrol may find that self-funded students whose main ambition is to work in the UK after studying are less easy to lure.  Price points and graduate outcomes could become far more powerful signals than whether the THE, QS and AWUR algorithms choose to favour the rich, old and elitist.